Elche v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 15 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 20
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 15
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.35
Goals − xG
+0.95 – -0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
19.5%
Draw
21.7%
Real Madrid win
58.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche have scored 12 from 11.3 expected and conceded 18 from 19.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DDLLLDLWDD last 10
scored 12
from 11.3 xG
conceded 18
from 19.1 xG
Real Madrid have scored 27 from 25.2 expected and conceded 11 from 11.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWWLWWLWW last 10
scored 27
from 25.2 xG
conceded 11
from 11.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.03–1.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 1.05 xGReal Madrid 3.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Real Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 3' |
 Elche |
German Valera | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martim Neto |
| 7' |
Elche |
Tete Morente | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Buba Sangaré |
| 10' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 16' |
Elche |
Abiel Osorio | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 20' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 24' |
Elche |
Matías Dituro | 0.00 | Set Piece | — | Own Goal | — |
| 24' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 32' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yan Diomande |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.86 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 42' |
Elche |
Abiel Osorio | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roy Revivo |
| 44' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 45' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 46' |
Elche |
Tete Morente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | German Valera |
| 48' |
Elche |
Abiel Osorio | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tete Morente |
| 53' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gonzalo Villar |
| 57' |
Real Madrid |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 58' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 60' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 61' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 62' |
Elche |
Tete Morente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 70' |
Elche |
Abiel Osorio | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Goal | Lucas Cepeda |
| 75' |
Real Madrid |
Yan Diomande | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 78' |
Real Madrid |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Elche |
Fernando Niño | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Josan |
| 84' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 85' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 89' |
Real Madrid |
Carlos Espí | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 89' |
Real Madrid |
Endrick | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 90' |
Real Madrid |
Carlos Espí | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.86 | 1.44 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Yan Diomande AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.94 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Federico Valverde DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.53 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.62 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.91 |
| Arda Güler AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 1.58 |
| Vinícius Júnior AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.03 | 0.94 |
| Jude Bellingham Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.84 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Endrick Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Carlos Espí Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Denzel Dumfries Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abiel Osorio FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Roy Revivo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| Federico Redondo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Gonzalo Villar MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Tete Morente ML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Martim Neto MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Buba Sangaré DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| German Valera MR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Lucas Cepeda Sub | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| Fernando Niño Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rubén Sánchez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josan Sub | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |