Elche v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 20
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 17
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 1.51
Goals − xG
+0.40 – -1.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
29.2%
Draw
26.4%
Real Madrid win
44.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDLWDDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 20
from 15.4 xG
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–1.41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.85 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 59% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 1.60 xGReal Madrid 3.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Real Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 10' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raúl |
| 13' |
 Elche |
André Silva | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 15' |
Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Victor Chust |
| 16' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | André Silva |
| 20' |
Real Madrid |
Raúl | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 24' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fran García |
| 28' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 32' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 37' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Grady Diangana |
| 37' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Ceballos |
| 42' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 44' |
Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | André Silva |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 47' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 52' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | German Valera |
| 64' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Raúl | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 73' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 77' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.43 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Jude Bellingham |
| 79' |
Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 79' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 79' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martim Neto |
| 81' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 81' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 83' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Martim Neto |
| 86' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 86' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.85 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 89' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iñaki Peña |
| 90' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 93' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 97' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gonzalo García |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.02 | 0.72 | 1.72 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.92 | 1.09 | 2.17 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.08 | 1.29 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.86 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.50 | 1.23 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Álvaro Fernández DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Arda Güler MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| Rodrygo FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Fran García ML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Dani Ceballos MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.56 |
| Vinícius Júnior Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| Federico Valverde Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.98 | 0.09 | 1.07 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.57 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
| Álvaro Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.89 |
| German Valera DL | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| André Silva FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 1.24 |
| Grady Diangana MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.73 |
| Hector Fort DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Martim Neto Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Federico Redondo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |