Elche v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Elche

16:00 UTC

Sevilla

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 1,229h before kick-off

Elche win

43.2%

model 41.8%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.9%

Sevilla win

29.5%

model 32.3%

432729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.3%
1-0 10.0%
2-1 8.8%
0-1 8.6%
1-2 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.7%	Under 2.5	50.3%
BTTS yes	53.9%	BTTS no	46.1%
Elche 1+	76.1%	Elche 2+	42.0%
Sevilla 1+	70.7%	Sevilla 2+	34.8%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.23. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Even goals in 2nd half

Odd/Even 2HT · usually 49%

51.7% fair odds 1.94

moderate signal · 2358 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sevilla (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 79%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Elche have created 1.13 xG a match over their last five while Sevilla have allowed 1.63.
At home Elche average 1.30 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Elche have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.5% for Sevilla and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Elche and 1.23 for Sevilla.

Why Elche

Elche have created 1.13 xG a match over their last five while Sevilla have allowed 1.63. At home Elche average 1.30 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.43 to 1.23. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Sevilla can win

Sevilla have created 1.27 xG a match over their last five while Elche have allowed 1.91. Away from home Sevilla average 1.34 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Elche were missing 0.86 expected goal involvements a match against 0.55.

Key players

Elche's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Alvaro Rodríguez (0.42), Fernando Niño (0.41), André Silva (0.36). Sevilla's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.31), Neal Maupay (0.28), Lucas Stassin (0.23).

Availability

2 of Elche's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Elche's last eleven are new to the club this window. 36% of Sevilla's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Elche: 46% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Sevilla: 40% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Elche are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Elche have scored 12 from 11.3 expected and conceded 18 from 19.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DDLLLDLWDD last 10 scored 12 from 11.3 xG conceded 18 from 19.1 xG

Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWLDWWLDL last 10 scored 14 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 16.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422632	1.43–1.23	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	452530	1.53–1.21	1-1 12%	51%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to win	46.3%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11
Sevilla to win	28.2%	27.9%	28.4%	0.98×	3.58
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	25.4%	1.10×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche & not both score	25.3%	25.2%	24.8%	1.01×	3.97
Elche & both teams score	21.1%	21.8%	21.6%	1.01×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Sevilla & not both score	14.8%	13.3%	14.4%	0.93×	7.53
Sevilla & both teams score	13.4%	13.3%	14.1%	0.94×	7.53
Draw & not both score	7.0%	8.3%	5.3%	1.57×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche & over 1.5	35.6%	34.9%	33.9%	1.03×	2.87
Elche & under 3.5	32.3%	30.8%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
Elche & over 2.5	27.4%	26.1%	28.0%	0.93×	3.84
Sevilla & under 3.5	21.0%	21.6%	21.3%	1.01×	4.63
Sevilla & over 1.5	20.2%	21.6%	21.4%	1.01×	4.63
Elche & under 2.5	18.9%	18.0%	18.5%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Sevilla & over 2.5	15.7%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Elche & over 3.5	14.1%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Sevilla & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	11.4%	1.12×	7.79
Elche & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	12.6%	1.02×	7.79
Sevilla & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	7.1%	1.12×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	5.3%	1.50×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Sevilla & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (1UP)	61.3%	62.8%	62.7%	1.00×	1.59
Sevilla (1UP)	45.5%	43.8%	47.1%	0.93×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (2UP)	46.3%	50.0%	48.1%	1.04×	2.00
Sevilla (2UP)	28.2%	25.3%	30.0%	0.84×	3.96

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	35.7%	36.1%	33.0%	1.09×	2.77
Elche to win 2nd half	33.4%	34.3%	39.5%	0.87×	2.91
Sevilla to win 2nd half	30.9%	34.3%	27.6%	1.24×	2.92

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.2%	84.3%	84.2%	1.00×	1.19
Sevilla over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.4%	52.6%	52.1%	1.01×	1.90
Sevilla under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.6%	47.4%	47.9%	0.99×	2.11
Sevilla over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.8%	15.7%	15.8%	0.99×	6.38

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.6%	82.4%	79.6%	1.03×	1.21
Elche over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.5%	57.9%	59.1%	0.98×	1.73
Elche under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.5%	42.1%	40.9%	1.03×	2.38
Elche over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.4%	17.6%	20.4%	0.86×	5.67

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (+2.5)	90.7%	92.1%	89.8%	1.03×	1.09
Sevilla (+1.5)	76.7%	78.5%	79.3%	0.99×	1.27
Elche (+0.5)	71.8%	73.6%	71.6%	1.03×	1.36
Sevilla (+0.5)	53.7%	52.4%	53.6%	0.98×	1.91
Elche (-0.5)	46.3%	47.6%	46.4%	1.03×	2.10
Sevilla (-0.5)	28.2%	26.4%	28.4%	0.93×	3.80
Elche (-1.5)	23.3%	21.5%	20.7%	1.04×	4.65
Elche (-2.5)	9.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to concede	78.2%	78.8%	80.5%	0.98×	1.27
Sevilla clean sheet	21.8%	21.2%	19.5%	1.09×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to concede in 1st half	51.1%	50.5%	47.8%	1.06×	1.98
Sevilla clean sheet in 1st half	48.9%	49.5%	52.2%	0.95×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to concede in 2nd half	55.5%	57.3%	59.1%	0.97×	1.75
Sevilla clean sheet in 2nd half	44.5%	42.7%	40.9%	1.04×	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 6.5 corners	89.7%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Sevilla under 5.5 corners	81.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Sevilla under 4.5 corners	69.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sevilla over 2.5 corners	65.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sevilla under 3.5 corners	53.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Sevilla over 3.5 corners	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sevilla under 2.5 corners	34.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sevilla over 4.5 corners	30.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sevilla over 5.5 corners	18.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Sevilla over 6.5 corners	10.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 3.5 goals	97.2%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Sevilla under 2.5 goals	89.4%	87.8%	89.4%	0.98×	1.14
Sevilla under 1.5 goals	68.8%	68.0%	67.9%	1.00×	1.47
Sevilla over 0.5 goals	67.7%	68.0%	70.0%	0.97×	1.47
Sevilla under 0.5 goals	32.3%	32.0%	30.0%	1.07×	3.12
Sevilla over 1.5 goals	31.2%	32.0%	32.1%	1.00×	3.13
Sevilla over 2.5 goals	10.6%	12.2%	10.6%	1.15×	8.21
Sevilla over 3.5 goals	2.8%	2.5%	2.9%	0.85×	39.89

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	94.0%	92.8%	1.01×	1.06
Sevilla under 0.5 in 1st half	69.4%	69.6%	63.2%	1.10×	1.44
Sevilla over 0.5 in 1st half	30.6%	30.4%	36.8%	0.83×	3.29
Sevilla over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	6.0%	7.2%	0.84×	16.60

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla scores equally in both	42.0%	43.4%	41.7%	1.04×	2.30
Sevilla scores more in 2nd half	41.8%	43.4%	37.6%	1.15×	2.30
Sevilla scores more in 1st half	16.2%	17.9%	20.8%	0.86×	5.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (away no bet)	64.5%	62.0%	64.6%	0.96×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.5%	38.0%	35.4%	1.07×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla even goals	55.2%	56.9%	53.3%	1.07×	1.76
Sevilla odd goals	44.8%	43.1%	46.7%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.3%	87.9%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.1%	14.2%	0.86×	8.25

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.3%	57.8%	62.5%	0.92×	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.7%	42.2%	37.5%	1.13×	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.5%	51.1%	52.5%	0.97×	1.96
Elche to score 2+ in a row	37.1%	36.6%	34.6%	1.06×	2.73
Sevilla to score 2+ in a row	23.2%	19.6%	23.8%	0.82×	5.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.0%	16.3%	19.2%	0.85×	6.14
Elche to score 3+ in a row	13.2%	12.1%	13.2%	0.91×	8.29
Sevilla to score 3+ in a row	6.0%	5.5%	6.5%	0.85×	18.07

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche corners (+3.5)	90.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Elche corners (+2.5)	84.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sevilla corners (+3.5)	80.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Elche corners (+1.5)	76.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Sevilla corners (+2.5)	70.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Sevilla corners (+1.5)	59.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Elche corners (-1.5)	40.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Elche corners (-2.5)	29.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Sevilla corners (-1.5)	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Elche corners (-3.5)	20.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Sevilla corners (-2.5)	15.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Sevilla corners (-3.5)	9.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	59.4%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	25.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	14.7%	21.2%	—	—	4.72

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	90.3%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	85.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 10.5 corners	78.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	69.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	59.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	52.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	47.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	40.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	30.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	21.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	14.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.90
Over 12.5 corners	9.7%	16.6%	—	—	6.01

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	15.2%	0.76×	8.72
1-0	10.7%	11.5%	12.6%	0.91×	8.72
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.50
0-0	7.0%	7.4%	5.3%	1.40×	13.51
0-1	8.0%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.50
1-2	6.8%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
2-0	8.2%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.50
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	4.2%	1.75×	13.51
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.29
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.08×	58.32
1-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.30
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.64×	58.32
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.92×	58.32
3-0	4.2%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.30
3-1	4.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.29
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.86×	58.32
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.31
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.33×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.43×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.58×	58.32
Any other score	2.6%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (2nd half DNB)	52.0%	52.8%	58.9%	0.90×	1.90
Sevilla (2nd half DNB)	48.0%	47.2%	41.1%	1.15×	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche leading at HT (DNB)	70.2%	73.5%	61.6%	1.19×	1.36
Sevilla leading at HT (DNB)	29.8%	26.5%	38.4%	0.69×	3.77

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche or Sevilla (12)	74.5%	72.1%	74.6%	0.97×	1.39
Elche or draw (1X)	71.8%	72.1%	71.6%	1.01×	1.39
Sevilla or draw (X2)	53.7%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche or draw at HT	83.1%	84.3%	78.2%	1.08×	1.19
Sevilla or draw at HT	60.3%	61.5%	65.0%	0.95×	1.63
Elche or Sevilla at HT	56.6%	57.1%	56.7%	1.01×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche or draw (1UP)	71.8%	79.6%	77.9%	1.02×	1.26
Sevilla or draw (1UP)	53.7%	58.8%	60.3%	0.98×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche or draw in 2nd half	69.1%	65.7%	72.4%	0.91×	1.52
Sevilla or draw in 2nd half	66.6%	65.7%	60.5%	1.09×	1.52
Elche or Sevilla in 2nd half	64.3%	63.9%	67.0%	0.95×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.6%	61.5%	62.1%	0.99×	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.4%	38.5%	37.9%	1.02×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (DNB)	62.2%	62.7%	62.0%	1.01×	1.60
Sevilla (DNB)	37.8%	37.3%	38.0%	0.98×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to score first	53.4%	53.4%	55.2%	0.97×	1.87
Sevilla to score first	39.6%	32.9%	39.6%	0.83×	3.04
No goal scored	7.0%	7.4%	5.3%	1.40×	13.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.9%	51.3%	55.8%	0.92×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.1%	48.7%	44.2%	1.10×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.8%	41.6%	40.7%	1.02×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	38.4%	38.4%	34.9%	1.10×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.4%	15.2%	0.81×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.3%	9.4%	0.88×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.0%	85.6%	85.8%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.0%	14.4%	14.2%	1.01×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.4%	73.7%	70.8%	1.04×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.6%	26.3%	29.2%	0.90×	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.4%	60.1%	59.7%	1.01×	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	25.0%	27.3%	23.7%	1.15×	3.66
Both score 1st half only	11.0%	10.7%	11.2%	0.95×	9.38
Both score in both halves	4.6%	5.0%	5.7%	0.88×	20.08

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.4%	83.3%	83.3%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.6%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.99

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.3%	52.7%	55.1%	0.96×	1.90
A half without a goal	47.7%	47.3%	44.9%	1.05×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.2%	49.2%	0.96×	2.12
0-1 goals	25.7%	26.6%	24.7%	1.08×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.7%	26.6%	23.8%	1.12×	3.76
7+ goals	1.9%	1.8%	2.6%	0.71×	54.31

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	38.0%	0.95×	2.78
Sevilla to score exactly 0	32.3%	33.8%	30.0%	1.13×	2.96
Sevilla to score exactly 2	20.6%	22.3%	21.6%	1.03×	4.49
Sevilla to score 3+	10.6%	12.9%	10.6%	1.22×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to score exactly 1	33.2%	32.6%	38.2%	0.85×	3.07
Elche to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Elche to score exactly 0	21.8%	23.3%	19.5%	1.19×	4.29
Elche to score 3+	19.7%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.4%	42.9%	43.3%	0.99×	2.33
Elche leading at HT	39.7%	38.5%	35.0%	1.10×	2.60
Sevilla leading at HT	16.9%	15.7%	21.8%	0.72×	6.38

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche -1: 2	53.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Elche -1: 1	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Elche -1: X	23.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (0:1)	53.7%	51.3%	53.6%	0.96×	1.95
Elche (0:1)	23.3%	24.2%	20.7%	1.17×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	23.0%	24.2%	25.8%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (0:2)	76.7%	79.3%	79.3%	1.00×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.0%	11.0%	10.6%	1.04×	9.09
Elche (0:2)	9.3%	7.7%	10.2%	0.75×	13.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (0:3)	90.7%	92.7%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.3%	5.8%	7.2%	0.81×	17.23
Elche (0:3)	3.0%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.06

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (0:4)	97.0%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.2%	1.2%	2.4%	0.52×	81.86
Elche (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	82.01

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (1:0)	71.8%	72.4%	71.6%	1.01×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.1%	17.1%	17.5%	0.98×	5.85
Sevilla (1:0)	11.1%	12.7%	10.9%	1.16×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (2:0)	88.9%	88.5%	89.1%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.7%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.68
Sevilla (2:0)	3.4%	2.3%	4.0%	0.57×	43.62

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.8%	48.8%	51.3%	0.95×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.2%	25.8%	1.01×	3.82
Halves equal	25.2%	26.2%	23.0%	1.14×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede	67.7%	66.7%	70.0%	0.95×	1.50
Elche clean sheet	32.3%	33.3%	30.0%	1.11×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche clean sheet in 1st half	69.4%	69.9%	63.2%	1.11×	1.43
Elche to concede in 1st half	30.6%	30.1%	36.8%	0.82×	3.32

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 2nd half	53.4%	52.8%	52.1%	1.01×	1.90
Elche clean sheet in 2nd half	46.6%	47.2%	47.9%	0.99×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 6.5 corners	81.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Elche over 2.5 corners	76.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Elche under 5.5 corners	70.5%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Elche over 3.5 corners	59.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Elche under 4.5 corners	56.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Elche over 4.5 corners	43.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Elche under 3.5 corners	40.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Elche over 5.5 corners	29.5%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Elche under 2.5 corners	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Elche over 6.5 corners	18.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 3.5 goals	93.1%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Elche under 2.5 goals	80.3%	82.2%	80.2%	1.02×	1.22
Elche over 0.5 goals	78.2%	77.7%	80.5%	0.97×	1.29
Elche under 1.5 goals	55.0%	53.2%	57.6%	0.92×	1.88
Elche over 1.5 goals	45.0%	46.8%	42.4%	1.10×	2.14
Elche under 0.5 goals	21.8%	22.3%	19.5%	1.14×	4.49
Elche over 2.5 goals	19.7%	17.8%	19.8%	0.90×	5.62
Elche over 3.5 goals	6.9%	7.8%	7.6%	1.01×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 1st half	83.9%	83.8%	85.8%	0.98×	1.19
Elche over 0.5 in 1st half	51.1%	50.3%	47.8%	1.05×	1.99
Elche under 0.5 in 1st half	48.9%	49.7%	52.2%	0.95×	2.01
Elche over 1.5 in 1st half	16.1%	16.2%	14.2%	1.14×	6.17

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche scores equally in both	36.3%	37.9%	32.3%	1.17×	2.64
Elche scores more in 2nd half	34.6%	33.0%	40.3%	0.82×	3.03
Elche scores more in 1st half	29.1%	27.9%	27.5%	1.01×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (home no bet)	52.5%	51.4%	52.7%	0.97×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	47.5%	48.6%	47.3%	1.03×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche even goals	52.4%	50.7%	47.5%	1.07×	1.97
Elche odd goals	47.6%	49.3%	52.5%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.0%	33.5%	32.2%	1.04×	2.99
HT 1-0	24.3%	24.5%	22.1%	1.11×	4.09
HT 0-1	12.4%	11.0%	16.0%	0.69×	9.07
HT 1-1	8.9%	6.9%	10.1%	0.68×	14.46
HT 2-0	8.7%	6.9%	6.6%	1.05×	14.47
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.4%	4.5%	0.53×	42.00
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.4%	3.1%	0.78×	42.07
HT 0-2	2.3%	2.4%	3.5%	0.67×	42.13
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.4%	1.7%	1.44×	42.17
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	1.2%	2.01×	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche at HT / Elche at FT	30.2%	32.0%	26.3%	1.22×	3.12
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.5%	16.7%	14.2%	1.18×	5.99
Draw at HT / Elche at FT	14.5%	12.7%	17.8%	0.71×	7.90
Draw at HT / Sevilla at FT	13.4%	12.7%	11.6%	1.09×	7.90
Sevilla at HT / Sevilla at FT	11.9%	12.6%	13.2%	0.96×	7.91
Elche at HT / Draw at FT	6.6%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.64
Sevilla at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.5%	6.3%	0.56×	28.64
Elche at HT / Sevilla at FT	2.9%	3.5%	3.8%	0.92×	28.66
Sevilla at HT / Elche at FT	1.6%	3.5%	2.6%	1.34×	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to score last	53.4%	52.2%	54.8%	0.95×	1.92
Sevilla to score last	39.6%	38.8%	40.0%	0.97×	2.58
No goal scored	7.0%	7.4%	5.3%	1.40×	13.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.0%	92.7%	94.7%	0.98×	1.08
Elche to lead by 1 at any time	61.3%	61.3%	62.7%	0.98×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.5%	44.5%	42.0%	1.06×	2.25
Sevilla to lead by 1 at any time	45.5%	44.5%	47.1%	0.95×	2.25
Elche to lead by 2 at any time	29.5%	25.6%	26.5%	0.96×	3.91
Sevilla to lead by 2 at any time	16.2%	14.9%	15.8%	0.94×	6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.0%	14.9%	17.2%	0.87×	6.70
Elche to lead by 3 at any time	11.4%	10.4%	12.5%	0.84×	9.58
Sevilla to lead by 3 at any time	4.6%	1.7%	4.8%	0.34×	60.26

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche most corners	53.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Sevilla most corners	34.6%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	12.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.4%	72.4%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.0%	68.8%	69.2%	1.00×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.4%	68.8%	68.6%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.3%	60.9%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.6%	48.5%	47.5%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.5%	49.2%	0.99×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.2%	43.6%	43.9%	0.99×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.5%	43.6%	44.8%	0.97×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.5%	39.2%	35.6%	1.10×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.7%	30.2%	23.8%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.3%	24.5%	20.1%	1.22×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.1%	14.8%	12.0%	1.23×	6.75
7+ goals	1.9%	2.6%	2.6%	0.99×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche never behind	47.5%	56.6%	52.9%	1.07×	1.77
Sevilla never behind	31.7%	36.2%	37.3%	0.97×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	53.6%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	46.4%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.8%	57.6%	54.4%	1.06×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.4%	45.6%	0.93×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.9%	49.4%	1.05×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.1%	50.6%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.7%	92.3%	93.8%	0.98×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.0%	87.6%	85.5%	1.02×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.4%	72.5%	73.8%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.5%	52.5%	50.0%	1.05×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.5%	47.5%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.6%	27.5%	26.2%	1.05×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	24.7%	1.11×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.0%	12.4%	14.5%	0.86×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	5.3%	1.46×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.3%	7.7%	6.2%	1.24×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.0%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.3%	92.4%	93.2%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.8%	81.1%	83.6%	0.97×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.8%	67.4%	66.9%	1.01×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.7%	61.9%	65.6%	0.94×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.3%	38.1%	34.4%	1.11×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.2%	32.6%	33.1%	0.98×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.2%	18.9%	16.4%	1.15×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.7%	7.6%	6.8%	1.12×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.0%	2.8%	2.7%	1.05×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.4%	92.5%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.6%	71.8%	70.0%	1.02×	1.39
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.0%	68.4%	67.8%	1.01×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.0%	31.6%	32.2%	0.98×	3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.4%	28.2%	30.0%	0.94×	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.6%	7.5%	10.0%	0.75×	13.30

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	79.4%	82.0%	0.97×	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.0%	79.4%	79.0%	1.01×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.4%	53.2%	53.3%	1.00×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.6%	46.8%	46.7%	1.00×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.0%	20.6%	21.0%	0.98×	4.86
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.7%	20.6%	18.0%	1.14×	4.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla not to score in both halves	83.7%	84.4%	81.0%	1.04×	1.19
Elche not to score in both halves	71.7%	73.9%	73.6%	1.00×	1.35
Elche to score in both halves	28.3%	26.1%	26.4%	0.99×	3.83
Sevilla to score in both halves	16.4%	15.6%	19.0%	0.82×	6.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.9%	53.9%	55.8%	0.97×	1.86
Only Elche scores	25.3%	26.0%	24.8%	1.05×	3.84
Only Sevilla scores	14.8%	11.0%	14.4%	0.77×	9.05
Neither team scores	7.0%	7.1%	5.3%	1.35×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.8%	22.6%	25.4%	0.89×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	23.9%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.7%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.5%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	7.7%	7.6%	8.4%	0.91×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	7.0%	7.6%	5.3%	1.44×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.3%	7.6%	6.2%	1.22×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.4%	38.0%	0.98×	2.67
No goals in 1st half	34.0%	35.9%	32.2%	1.11×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	19.8%	15.7%	20.0%	0.78×	6.36
3+ goals in 1st half	9.6%	7.5%	10.0%	0.75×	13.30

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.6%	45.1%	46.7%	0.97×	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	32.6%	33.8%	35.4%	0.96×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	20.7%	22.7%	18.0%	1.26×	4.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla not to win both halves	94.8%	94.2%	94.7%	0.99×	1.06
Elche not to win both halves	86.7%	87.8%	88.0%	1.00×	1.14
Elche to win both halves	13.3%	12.2%	12.0%	1.01×	8.23
Sevilla to win both halves	5.2%	5.8%	5.3%	1.10×	17.14

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to win either half	59.9%	59.1%	62.5%	0.95×	1.69
Sevilla to win neither half	57.5%	59.1%	55.9%	1.06×	1.69
Sevilla to win either half	42.5%	40.9%	44.1%	0.93×	2.44
Elche to win neither half	40.1%	40.9%	37.5%	1.09×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla not to win to nil	85.3%	88.1%	85.6%	1.03×	1.14
Elche not to win to nil	74.7%	75.4%	75.2%	1.00×	1.33
Elche to win to nil	25.3%	24.6%	24.8%	0.99×	4.06
Sevilla to win to nil	14.8%	11.9%	14.4%	0.83×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	25.4%	1.10×	3.59
Elche by 1	23.0%	24.1%	25.8%	0.94×	4.15
Sevilla by 1	17.1%	17.0%	17.5%	0.97×	5.87
Elche by 2	14.0%	11.8%	10.6%	1.11×	8.50
Elche by 3+	9.3%	7.2%	10.2%	0.70×	13.90
Sevilla by 2	7.7%	7.2%	7.1%	1.02×	13.91
Sevilla by 3+	3.4%	2.7%	4.0%	0.68×	36.80