Elche v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.52 – +0.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
27.1%
Draw
24.8%
Villarreal win
48.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDLWDDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 20
from 15.4 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.53 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.78 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 1.52 xGVillarreal 2.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Georges Mikautadze |
| 12' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolas Pepe |
| 15' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 18' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 21' |
 Elche |
German Valera | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Elche |
Álvaro Núñez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martim Neto |
| 29' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aleix Febas |
| 31' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rafa Marín |
| 31' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Parejo |
| 35' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 36' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Elche |
Pedro Bigas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Affengruber |
| 41' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Bigas |
| 47' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 50' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pau Navarro |
| 52' |
Elche |
Pedro Bigas | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 56' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 59' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | German Valera |
| 62' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 68' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 74' |
Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 77' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafa Mir |
| 82' |
Villarreal |
Alfonso | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sergi Cardona |
| 92' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 93' |
Elche |
Rodrigo Mendoza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Bigas |
Players
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.08 | 1.24 |
| Alfonso DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Pau Navarro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Rafa Marín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.42 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 80 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 1.46 |
| Daniel Parejo MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.58 |
| Nicolas Pepe MR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.61 |
| Ayoze Pérez FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.28 | 1.20 |
| Gerard Moreno Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Sergi Cardona Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Carlos Macià Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Foyth Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Bigas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.08 | 1.04 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1.41 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| German Valera DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 1.28 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Martim Neto MC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 1.27 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 1.12 |
| Álvaro Núñez DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.52 | 1.10 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| David Affengruber DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.96 |
| Bambo Diaby Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Grady Diangana Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Josan Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Adam El Mokhtari Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |