Elversberg v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Elversberg

4–3

4.00 – 3.74 xG

Augsburg

Shots

19 – 29

On target

8 – 8

Shots in box

17 – 26

xG per shot

0.24 – 0.13

Set-piece xG

2.45 – 2.21

Goals − xG

-0.52 – -0.76

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 17 Oct, 10:59 · 3h before kick-off

Elversberg win

51.1%

model 50.8%

Draw

22.2%

model 20.2%

Augsburg win

26.8%

model 29.0%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 8.4%
1-1 7.5%
2-2 7.0%
1-2 6.3%
3-1 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	74.8%	Under 2.5	25.2%
BTTS yes	72.5%	BTTS no	27.5%
Elversberg 1+	89.3%	Elversberg 2+	65.4%
Augsburg 1+	81.2%	Augsburg 2+	49.8%

Expected goals 2.24 – 1.67. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Elversberg over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 51%

69.0% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 1028 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 85%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Elversberg carry the stronger rating, 1602 Elo against 1540.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Augsburg were missing 1.11 expected goal involvements a match against 0.53.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Elversberg have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.8% for Augsburg and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.23 for Elversberg and 1.67 for Augsburg.

Why Elversberg

Elversberg carry the stronger rating, 1602 Elo against 1540. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Augsburg were missing 1.11 expected goal involvements a match against 0.53.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Augsburg can win

Away from home Augsburg average 1.45 xG a match.

Key players

Elversberg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: David Mokwa (0.30), Lukas Petkov (0.26), Felix Keidel (0.17). Augsburg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Michael Gregoritsch (0.40), Anton Kade (0.38), Alexis Claude Maurice (0.26).

Availability

1 of Elversberg's top three contributors did not start their last match. 3 of Augsburg's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Augsburg's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Elversberg: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 21.2 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces. Augsburg: 38% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 22.6 faced, 0.44 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-17 14:51 · team_stats 2026-10-17 06:03 · availability 2026-10-17 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Elversberg are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.4%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Elversberg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDLW last 6 scored 12 from 10.5 xG conceded 11 from 14.8 xG

Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWLWWDLDL last 10 scored 23 from 23.0 xG conceded 19 from 22.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	512029	2.24–1.67	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	432334	1.72–1.50	1-1 10%	62%	64%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	482031	2.20–1.76	2-1 8%	76%	74%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to win	40.4%	42.9%	41.9%	1.02×	2.33
Augsburg to win	36.7%	36.3%	33.5%	1.08×	2.75
Draw	22.9%	24.5%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg & both teams score	24.2%	21.8%	22.2%	0.99×	4.58
Augsburg & both teams score	22.2%	21.8%	18.5%	1.18×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Elversberg & not both score	16.2%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Augsburg & not both score	14.5%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.53
Draw & not both score	3.6%	4.9%	5.8%	0.84×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg & over 1.5	34.3%	30.8%	35.8%	0.86×	3.25
Augsburg & over 1.5	30.9%	30.7%	27.8%	1.11×	3.25
Elversberg & over 2.5	29.1%	26.1%	29.9%	0.87×	3.84
Augsburg & over 2.5	26.2%	26.1%	23.5%	1.11×	3.84
Elversberg & under 3.5	22.8%	21.6%	21.7%	1.00×	4.63
Augsburg & under 3.5	21.1%	21.6%	19.4%	1.11×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Elversberg & over 3.5	17.6%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Augsburg & over 3.5	15.7%	18.0%	14.3%	1.26×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.5%	12.8%	15.2%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.5%	12.8%	15.2%	0.85×	7.79
Elversberg & under 2.5	11.3%	12.8%	12.1%	1.06×	7.79
Augsburg & under 2.5	10.5%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	9.7%	0.82×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	9.7%	0.82×	12.62
Elversberg & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	6.2%	1.27×	12.62
Augsburg & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	5.9%	1.34×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.8%	0.83×	20.85

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (1UP)	59.6%	58.2%	60.2%	0.97×	1.72
Augsburg (1UP)	56.5%	58.0%	52.3%	1.11×	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (2UP)	40.4%	46.9%	45.3%	1.03×	2.13
Augsburg (2UP)	36.7%	37.2%	36.5%	1.02×	2.69

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg to win 2nd half	47.7%	45.7%	29.3%	1.56×	2.19
2nd half drawn	31.5%	34.1%	33.6%	1.01×	2.93
Elversberg to win 2nd half	20.9%	24.0%	37.2%	0.64×	4.17

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.2%	70.2%	79.3%	0.88×	1.43
Augsburg over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.2%	70.2%	56.8%	1.23×	1.43
Augsburg under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.8%	29.8%	43.2%	0.69×	3.35
Augsburg over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.8%	29.8%	20.7%	1.44×	3.35

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.1%	88.1%	74.3%	1.19×	1.14
Elversberg under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	54.3%	37.1%	1.46×	1.84
Elversberg over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	45.7%	62.9%	0.73×	2.19
Elversberg over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.9%	11.9%	25.7%	0.46×	8.39

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (+2.5)	91.2%	92.1%	88.0%	1.05×	1.09
Augsburg (+1.5)	79.1%	78.5%	75.3%	1.04×	1.27
Elversberg (+0.5)	63.3%	63.0%	66.5%	0.95×	1.59
Augsburg (+0.5)	59.6%	57.1%	58.1%	0.98×	1.75
Elversberg (-0.5)	40.4%	42.9%	41.9%	1.02×	2.33
Augsburg (-0.5)	36.7%	37.0%	33.5%	1.10×	2.70
Elversberg (-1.5)	20.9%	21.5%	24.7%	0.87×	4.65
Elversberg (-2.5)	8.8%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg to concede	81.9%	81.5%	79.2%	1.03×	1.23
Augsburg clean sheet	18.1%	18.5%	20.8%	0.89×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg to concede in 1st half	65.4%	70.4%	52.1%	1.35×	1.42
Augsburg clean sheet in 1st half	34.6%	29.6%	47.9%	0.62×	3.38

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg clean sheet in 2nd half	52.2%	53.6%	37.1%	1.45×	1.87
Augsburg to concede in 2nd half	47.8%	46.4%	62.9%	0.74×	2.16

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg under 6.5 corners	85.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Augsburg under 5.5 corners	75.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Augsburg over 2.5 corners	71.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Augsburg under 4.5 corners	62.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Augsburg over 3.5 corners	54.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Augsburg under 3.5 corners	45.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Augsburg over 4.5 corners	37.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Augsburg under 2.5 corners	28.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Augsburg over 5.5 corners	24.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Augsburg over 6.5 corners	14.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg under 3.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Augsburg over 0.5 goals	80.3%	81.4%	74.5%	1.09×	1.23
Augsburg under 2.5 goals	77.8%	76.3%	79.1%	0.96×	1.31
Augsburg under 1.5 goals	51.8%	53.6%	57.1%	0.94×	1.87
Augsburg over 1.5 goals	48.2%	46.4%	42.9%	1.08×	2.15
Augsburg over 2.5 goals	22.2%	23.7%	20.9%	1.13×	4.21
Augsburg under 0.5 goals	19.7%	18.6%	25.5%	0.73×	5.39
Augsburg over 3.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	7.4%	1.03×	13.03

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg under 1.5 in 1st half	91.7%	94.1%	85.7%	1.10×	1.06
Augsburg under 0.5 in 1st half	62.1%	63.1%	54.4%	1.16×	1.58
Augsburg over 0.5 in 1st half	37.9%	36.9%	45.6%	0.81×	2.71
Augsburg over 1.5 in 1st half	8.3%	5.9%	14.3%	0.41×	16.96

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg scores more in 2nd half	52.5%	50.8%	36.6%	1.39×	1.97
Augsburg scores equally in both	32.1%	33.5%	39.5%	0.85×	2.99
Augsburg scores more in 1st half	15.4%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.61

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (away no bet)	63.8%	62.0%	62.9%	0.99×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.2%	38.0%	37.1%	1.02×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg even goals	52.0%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Augsburg odd goals	48.1%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.6%	81.3%	75.4%	1.08×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.4%	18.7%	24.6%	0.76×	5.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.7%	68.0%	72.5%	0.94×	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.3%	32.0%	27.5%	1.16×	3.13

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.8%	62.2%	66.7%	0.93×	1.61
Elversberg to score 2+ in a row	39.7%	36.5%	42.6%	0.86×	2.74
Augsburg to score 2+ in a row	36.8%	36.4%	34.5%	1.06×	2.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.3%	25.2%	29.3%	0.86×	3.97
Elversberg to score 3+ in a row	14.4%	12.1%	17.8%	0.68×	8.26
Augsburg to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.1%	12.5%	0.97×	8.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg corners (+3.5)	95.5%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Elversberg corners (+2.5)	92.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Elversberg corners (+1.5)	88.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Elversberg corners (-1.5)	66.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Elversberg corners (-2.5)	57.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Augsburg corners (+3.5)	52.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Elversberg corners (-3.5)	47.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Augsburg corners (+2.5)	42.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Augsburg corners (+1.5)	33.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Augsburg corners (-1.5)	11.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Augsburg corners (-2.5)	7.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Augsburg corners (-3.5)	4.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.53

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	46.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
0-8 corners	25.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	74.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	62.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 10.5 corners	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	53.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	46.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 12.5 corners	38.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	34.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	25.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	17.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.9%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.50
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.50
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.50
2-2	6.9%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.50
0-1	5.8%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.50
1-0	6.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.50
2-0	5.2%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.50
Any other score	5.4%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.50
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.29
0-0	3.6%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.30
0-2	4.7%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.29
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.13×	58.31
1-3	4.3%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.29
1-4	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.31
2-3	3.7%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.30
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.61×	58.31
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.30
3-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
3-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.31
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.61×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.77×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (2nd half DNB)	69.5%	68.3%	44.1%	1.55×	1.46
Elversberg (2nd half DNB)	30.5%	31.7%	55.9%	0.57×	3.16

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg leading at HT (DNB)	75.1%	75.0%	55.7%	1.35×	1.33
Augsburg leading at HT (DNB)	24.9%	25.0%	44.3%	0.56×	4.01

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg or Augsburg (12)	77.1%	75.5%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Elversberg or draw (1X)	63.3%	63.7%	66.5%	0.96×	1.57
Augsburg or draw (X2)	59.6%	57.1%	58.1%	0.98×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg or draw at HT	83.5%	84.0%	70.7%	1.19×	1.19
Elversberg or Augsburg at HT	66.2%	66.8%	66.1%	1.01×	1.50
Augsburg or draw at HT	50.3%	47.3%	63.1%	0.75×	2.12

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg or draw (1UP)	63.3%	71.9%	73.7%	0.97×	1.39
Augsburg or draw (1UP)	59.6%	63.5%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg or draw in 2nd half	79.1%	76.0%	62.8%	1.21×	1.32
Elversberg or Augsburg in 2nd half	68.5%	65.9%	66.4%	0.99×	1.52
Elversberg or draw in 2nd half	52.3%	54.3%	70.7%	0.77×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.7%	50.3%	53.8%	0.93×	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.4%	49.7%	46.2%	1.08×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (DNB)	52.4%	50.9%	55.5%	0.92×	1.96
Augsburg (DNB)	47.6%	49.1%	44.5%	1.10×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to score first	49.5%	46.0%	51.2%	0.90×	2.17
Augsburg to score first	47.0%	45.9%	43.2%	1.06×	2.18
No goal scored	3.6%	4.3%	5.8%	0.74×	23.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.7%	58.3%	59.5%	0.98×	1.71
Not both teams to score	34.3%	41.7%	40.5%	1.03×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	55.8%	47.5%	50.1%	0.95×	2.11
Not both score & under 2.5	25.4%	33.3%	27.8%	1.20×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	9.9%	8.3%	9.6%	0.87×	12.04
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	12.9%	0.64×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	75.4%	79.5%	79.4%	1.00×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	24.6%	20.5%	20.6%	0.99×	4.88

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.4%	67.0%	65.0%	1.03×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.6%	33.0%	35.0%	0.94×	3.03

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.7%	54.6%	51.2%	1.07×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	24.5%	20.9%	28.3%	0.74×	4.79
Both score 1st half only	16.7%	15.1%	14.0%	1.08×	6.64
Both score in both halves	8.1%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.66

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.2%	81.1%	79.3%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.8%	18.9%	20.7%	0.91×	5.30

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.5%	66.3%	67.6%	0.98×	1.51
A half without a goal	34.5%	33.7%	32.4%	1.04×	2.97

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.9%	42.1%	38.5%	1.09×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.4%	35.2%	40.1%	0.88×	2.84
0-1 goals	15.5%	20.2%	17.6%	1.15×	4.95
7+ goals	5.3%	7.6%	4.1%	1.85×	13.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg to score exactly 1	32.0%	33.8%	31.7%	1.07×	2.96
Augsburg to score exactly 2	26.0%	27.4%	22.2%	1.24×	3.65
Augsburg to score 3+	22.2%	22.3%	20.9%	1.07×	4.48
Augsburg to score exactly 0	19.7%	19.6%	25.5%	0.77×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to score exactly 1	30.9%	32.5%	28.7%	1.13×	3.08
Elversberg to score exactly 2	26.4%	26.6%	23.2%	1.14×	3.76
Elversberg to score 3+	24.5%	23.3%	27.6%	0.84×	4.29
Elversberg to score exactly 0	18.1%	18.8%	20.8%	0.90×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg leading at HT	49.7%	52.7%	36.9%	1.43×	1.90
Draw at HT	33.8%	33.2%	33.9%	0.98×	3.01
Augsburg leading at HT	16.5%	16.0%	29.3%	0.54×	6.26

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg -1: 2	59.6%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Elversberg -1: 1	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Elversberg -1: X	19.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (0:1)	59.6%	55.9%	58.1%	0.96×	1.79
Elversberg (0:1)	20.9%	24.2%	24.7%	0.98×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	19.5%	17.8%	17.3%	1.03×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (0:2)	79.1%	79.4%	75.3%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.1%	11.0%	12.9%	0.85×	9.11
Elversberg (0:2)	8.8%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (0:3)	91.2%	92.7%	88.0%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.7%	5.8%	5.0%	1.16×	17.20
Elversberg (0:3)	3.1%	2.4%	7.1%	0.33×	42.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (0:4)	96.9%	98.1%	92.9%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.2%	1.2%	5.0%	0.24×	82.00
Elversberg (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	82.14

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (1:0)	63.3%	65.4%	66.5%	0.98×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	18.5%	17.1%	16.5%	1.03×	5.85
Augsburg (1:0)	18.2%	17.1%	17.1%	1.00×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (2:0)	81.8%	84.6%	82.9%	1.02×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.9%	10.3%	10.0%	1.03×	9.73
Augsburg (2:0)	7.3%	6.4%	7.3%	0.88×	15.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.1%	46.3%	47.3%	0.98×	2.16
1st half highest scoring	33.2%	30.3%	26.0%	1.16×	3.31
Halves equal	22.7%	24.2%	26.9%	0.90×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede	80.3%	80.8%	74.5%	1.08×	1.24
Elversberg clean sheet	19.7%	19.2%	25.5%	0.75×	5.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg clean sheet in 1st half	62.1%	63.1%	54.4%	1.16×	1.58
Elversberg to concede in 1st half	37.9%	36.9%	45.6%	0.81×	2.71

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede in 2nd half	68.2%	67.4%	56.8%	1.19×	1.48
Elversberg clean sheet in 2nd half	31.8%	32.6%	43.2%	0.75×	3.07

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg over 2.5 corners	94.3%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Elversberg over 3.5 corners	87.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Elversberg over 4.5 corners	78.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Elversberg over 5.5 corners	68.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Elversberg over 6.5 corners	56.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Elversberg under 6.5 corners	43.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.36
Elversberg under 5.5 corners	31.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Elversberg under 4.5 corners	21.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Elversberg under 3.5 corners	12.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.29
Elversberg under 2.5 corners	5.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.33

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 3.5 goals	90.5%	92.2%	88.5%	1.04×	1.08
Elversberg over 0.5 goals	81.9%	82.2%	79.2%	1.04×	1.22
Elversberg under 2.5 goals	75.5%	77.7%	72.4%	1.07×	1.29
Elversberg over 1.5 goals	51.0%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
Elversberg under 1.5 goals	49.0%	46.8%	49.3%	0.95×	2.14
Elversberg over 2.5 goals	24.5%	22.3%	27.6%	0.81×	4.49
Elversberg under 0.5 goals	18.1%	17.8%	20.8%	0.86×	5.62
Elversberg over 3.5 goals	9.5%	7.8%	11.5%	0.68×	12.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 1st half	71.4%	79.5%	80.5%	0.99×	1.26
Elversberg over 0.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.9%	52.1%	1.32×	1.45
Elversberg under 0.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.1%	47.9%	0.65×	3.22
Elversberg over 1.5 in 1st half	28.6%	20.5%	19.5%	1.06×	4.87

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg scores more in 1st half	44.9%	41.9%	25.4%	1.65×	2.39
Elversberg scores equally in both	32.9%	33.2%	36.6%	0.91×	3.01
Elversberg scores more in 2nd half	22.2%	21.0%	38.1%	0.55×	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (home no bet)	61.6%	59.9%	57.6%	1.04×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	38.4%	40.1%	42.4%	0.94×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg even goals	51.6%	50.7%	52.5%	0.97×	1.97
Elversberg odd goals	48.4%	49.3%	47.5%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	22.8%	24.4%	19.5%	1.25×	4.11
HT 0-0	21.5%	24.3%	22.9%	1.06×	4.11
HT 2-0	12.1%	10.9%	9.6%	1.14×	9.18
HT 1-1	10.9%	10.9%	9.7%	1.12×	9.20
Any other HT score	10.3%	10.9%	6.7%	1.63×	9.20
HT 0-1	10.3%	10.9%	16.6%	0.66×	9.20
HT 2-1	5.8%	6.9%	4.3%	1.63×	14.43
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.4%	3.5%	0.68×	42.06
HT 0-2	2.4%	2.4%	7.1%	0.33×	42.07
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.4%	1.4%	1.74×	42.14

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg at HT / Elversberg at FT	32.6%	32.2%	28.3%	1.14×	3.10
Draw at HT / Augsburg at FT	16.1%	16.8%	9.9%	1.70×	5.97
Augsburg at HT / Augsburg at FT	13.6%	12.7%	20.4%	0.62×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.6%	12.7%	13.7%	0.93×	7.89
Elversberg at HT / Draw at FT	10.1%	12.7%	5.3%	2.38×	7.90
Elversberg at HT / Augsburg at FT	7.0%	6.0%	3.6%	1.64×	16.67
Draw at HT / Elversberg at FT	7.1%	6.0%	10.6%	0.56×	16.67
Augsburg at HT / Draw at FT	2.1%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.76
Augsburg at HT / Elversberg at FT	0.8%	3.5%	3.3%	1.04×	28.81

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to score last	49.5%	46.6%	50.0%	0.93×	2.14
Augsburg to score last	47.0%	46.5%	44.4%	1.05×	2.15
No goal scored	3.6%	4.3%	5.8%	0.74×	23.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.4%	95.7%	94.2%	1.02×	1.05
Elversberg to lead by 1 at any time	59.6%	55.1%	60.2%	0.91×	1.82
Augsburg to lead by 1 at any time	56.5%	55.0%	52.3%	1.05×	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.6%	50.8%	55.9%	0.91×	1.97
Elversberg to lead by 2 at any time	29.0%	25.5%	33.1%	0.77×	3.92
Augsburg to lead by 2 at any time	26.1%	25.4%	23.6%	1.08×	3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.6%	19.7%	25.5%	0.77×	5.08
Elversberg to lead by 3 at any time	11.6%	10.4%	15.7%	0.67×	9.60
Augsburg to lead by 3 at any time	9.9%	6.8%	10.0%	0.68×	14.77

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg most corners	75.2%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Augsburg most corners	17.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Corners level	7.3%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.3%	83.4%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.2%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	71.3%	1.01×	1.38
1-4 goals	72.1%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.2%	63.3%	60.2%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.4%	59.1%	58.9%	1.00×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.8%	53.2%	50.4%	1.06×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.6%	53.2%	51.7%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.9%	43.6%	38.5%	1.13×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	40.7%	1.07×	2.29
4-6 goals	37.4%	39.2%	40.1%	0.98×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.7%	35.2%	31.6%	1.12×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.6%	35.2%	32.9%	1.07×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.0%	18.8%	18.4%	1.02×	5.32
7+ goals	5.3%	8.9%	4.1%	2.17×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg never behind	39.9%	44.2%	47.7%	0.93×	2.26
Augsburg never behind	36.9%	44.0%	39.8%	1.11×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	45.2%	1.13×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	54.8%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.3%	51.6%	52.4%	0.99×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.7%	48.4%	47.6%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	51.9%	52.9%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.1%	47.1%	1.02×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.4%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.9%	87.6%	88.8%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.5%	82.3%	82.4%	1.00×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	77.7%	1.00×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.7%	61.8%	62.8%	0.98×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.3%	58.6%	56.0%	1.05×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.7%	41.4%	44.0%	0.94×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.3%	38.2%	37.2%	1.03×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	22.3%	1.02×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	15.5%	17.7%	17.6%	1.00×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	12.1%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.6%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.3%	92.4%	95.6%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.2%	86.7%	87.4%	0.99×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.7%	81.1%	78.1%	1.04×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.2%	72.4%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.7%	51.9%	54.2%	0.96×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.3%	48.1%	45.8%	1.05×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	29.8%	27.6%	28.5%	0.97×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.3%	18.9%	21.9%	0.87×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.8%	13.3%	12.6%	1.05×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.7%	7.6%	4.4%	1.72×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.0%	78.6%	84.7%	0.93×	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.5%	78.5%	77.1%	1.02×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	54.6%	54.6%	58.7%	0.93×	1.83
Over 1.5 in 1st half	45.4%	45.4%	41.3%	1.10×	2.20
Under 0.5 in 1st half	21.5%	21.5%	22.9%	0.94×	4.65
Over 2.5 in 1st half	20.0%	21.4%	15.4%	1.40×	4.66

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.4%	83.2%	84.8%	0.98×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.2%	77.4%	72.9%	1.06×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	52.7%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	47.3%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.8%	22.6%	27.1%	0.83×	4.43
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.6%	16.8%	15.2%	1.11×	5.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg not to score in both halves	74.1%	73.8%	72.0%	1.02×	1.35
Elversberg not to score in both halves	68.8%	69.8%	64.1%	1.09×	1.43
Elversberg to score in both halves	31.2%	30.2%	35.9%	0.84×	3.31
Augsburg to score in both halves	25.9%	26.2%	28.0%	0.94×	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	65.7%	59.7%	59.5%	1.00×	1.68
Only Elversberg scores	16.2%	16.0%	19.9%	0.81×	6.24
Only Augsburg scores	14.5%	11.0%	15.2%	0.73×	9.07
Neither team scores	3.6%	4.6%	5.8%	0.80×	21.71

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	19.0%	1.19×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.8%	17.5%	19.7%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.4%	17.5%	21.9%	0.80×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	12.2%	12.1%	11.2%	1.08×	8.25
6 or more goals	12.1%	12.1%	11.2%	1.08×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.9%	12.1%	12.0%	1.01×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.6%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.43

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.1%	35.7%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	25.4%	28.4%	26.1%	1.09×	3.52
No goals in 1st half	21.5%	21.5%	22.9%	0.94×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	20.0%	21.5%	15.4%	1.40×	4.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.6%	51.2%	55.8%	0.92×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	29.8%	29.5%	29.2%	1.01×	3.39
No goals in 2nd half	16.6%	16.6%	15.2%	1.09×	6.02

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg not to win both halves	92.2%	94.2%	90.7%	1.04×	1.06
Elversberg not to win both halves	89.6%	88.1%	83.9%	1.05×	1.14
Elversberg to win both halves	10.4%	11.9%	16.1%	0.74×	8.39
Augsburg to win both halves	7.8%	5.8%	9.3%	0.63×	17.13

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to win either half	60.2%	64.8%	58.1%	1.12×	1.54
Augsburg to win either half	56.3%	59.0%	49.4%	1.19×	1.70
Augsburg to win neither half	43.7%	41.0%	50.6%	0.81×	2.44
Elversberg to win neither half	39.8%	35.2%	41.9%	0.84×	2.84

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg not to win to nil	85.5%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.14
Elversberg not to win to nil	83.8%	83.1%	80.1%	1.04×	1.20
Elversberg to win to nil	16.2%	16.9%	19.9%	0.85×	5.92
Augsburg to win to nil	14.5%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.9%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15
Elversberg by 1	19.5%	17.0%	17.3%	0.98×	5.87
Augsburg by 1	18.5%	17.0%	16.5%	1.03×	5.87
Elversberg by 2	12.1%	11.7%	12.9%	0.91×	8.51
Augsburg by 2	10.9%	11.7%	10.0%	1.17×	8.52
Elversberg by 3+	8.8%	7.2%	12.0%	0.60×	13.89
Augsburg by 3+	7.3%	7.2%	7.3%	0.99×	13.89

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Elversberg 4.52 xGAugsburg 3.76 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Elversberg attacking right Augsburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
3'	Elversberg	Lukas Petkov	0.76		Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
3'	Elversberg	Lukas Petkov	0.68	Set Piece	Right Foot	Goal	—
6'	Elversberg	Lasse Günther	0.46	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Maurice Krattenmacher
11'	Elversberg	Noah Darvich	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Maurice Krattenmacher
14'	Augsburg	Chrislain Matsima	0.07	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Arijon Ibrahimovic
17'	Augsburg	Robin Fellhauer	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Rodrigo Ribeiro
18'	Elversberg	Maurice Krattenmacher	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
19'	Elversberg	David Mokwa	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Noah Darvich
19'	Elversberg	Maurice Krattenmacher	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
20'	Augsburg	Arijon Ibrahimovic	0.16	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Fabian Rieder
24'	Augsburg	Marius Wolf	0.33	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Hennes Behrens
26'	Augsburg	Marius Wolf	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Robin Fellhauer
26'	Elversberg	Noah Darvich	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Maurice Krattenmacher
27'	Elversberg	Maximilian Rohr	0.12	From Corner	—	Goal	Felix Keidel
30'	Elversberg	Lukas Petkov	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jan Gyamerah
41'	Augsburg	Han-Noah Massengo	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Hennes Behrens
41'	Augsburg	Rodrigo Ribeiro	0.03	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Hennes Behrens
42'	Augsburg	Juma Bah	0.06	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Arijon Ibrahimovic
42'	Augsburg	Juma Bah	0.10	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
44'	Augsburg	Calvin Brackelmann	0.06	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Hennes Behrens
47'	Augsburg	Rodrigo Ribeiro	0.11	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Arijon Ibrahimovic
49'	Augsburg	Juma Bah	0.11	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Arijon Ibrahimovic
50'	Augsburg	Juma Bah	0.12	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
50'	Augsburg	Marius Wolf	0.02	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Hennes Behrens
50'	Augsburg	Marius Wolf	0.11	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Fabian Rieder
50'	Elversberg	Lukasz Poreba	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Frederik Schmahl
53'	Augsburg	Fabian Rieder	0.76		Left Foot	Goal	—
53'	Elversberg	David Mokwa	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
60'	Augsburg	Arijon Ibrahimovic	0.26	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Han-Noah Massengo
61'	Augsburg	Arijon Ibrahimovic	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Fabian Rieder
61'	Augsburg	Fabian Rieder	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
61'	Augsburg	Robin Fellhauer	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Arijon Ibrahimovic
64'	Augsburg	Michael Gregoritsch	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Arijon Ibrahimovic
71'	Elversberg	Maurice Krattenmacher	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Luca Sirch
72'	Elversberg	Lasse Günther	0.05	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Maximilian Rohr
74'	Augsburg	Michael Gregoritsch	0.10	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Seol Young-Woo
75'	Augsburg	Michael Gregoritsch	0.76		Left Foot	Goal	—
76'	Augsburg	Mert Kömür	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Fabian Rieder
88'	Elversberg	Frederik Schmahl	0.62	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Lukas Petkov
89'	Augsburg	Mert Kömür	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Hennes Behrens
93'	Elversberg	Noel Futkeu	0.08	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Amara Condé
93'	Elversberg	Raif Adam	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Noel Futkeu
95'	Elversberg	Amara Condé	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Luca Sirch
96'	Augsburg	Mert Kömür	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
97'	Elversberg	Noel Futkeu	0.76		Right Foot	Shot On Post	—
98'	Augsburg	Chrislain Matsima	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
98'	Augsburg	Fabian Rieder	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
98'	Augsburg	Han-Noah Massengo	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—

Players

Augsburg

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Fabian Rieder MC	90	1	0	3	4	0.85	0.37	0.84
Chrislain Matsima DC	90	0	0	2	0	0.12	0.00	0.28
Han-Noah Massengo MC	90	0	0	2	1	0.07	0.26	0.55
Calvin Brackelmann DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.34
Hennes Behrens DML	90	0	1	0	6	0.00	0.50	0.82
Finn Dahmen GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.16
Arijon Ibrahimovic AMC	83	0	0	3	6	0.49	0.53	1.08
Robin Fellhauer AMC	83	0	0	2	1	0.13	0.02	0.59
Marius Wolf DMR	55	0	0	4	0	0.48	0.00	0.59
Juma Bah DC	55	0	0	4	0	0.39	0.00	0.17
Rodrigo Ribeiro FW	55	0	0	2	1	0.14	0.03	0.06
Michael Gregoritsch Sub	35	1	0	3	0	0.94	0.00	0.32
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw Sub	35	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Anton Kade Sub	35	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.10
Mert Kömür Sub	7	1	0	3	0	0.09	0.00	0.15
Seol Young-Woo Sub	7	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.10	0.00

Elversberg

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Lukas Petkov AMR	90	1	1	3	1	1.53	0.62	1.32
Lasse Günther DL	90	1	0	2	0	0.51	0.00	0.64
Maximilian Rohr DC	90	1	0	1	1	0.12	0.05	0.26
Lukasz Poreba DMC	90	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.77
Felix Keidel DMC	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.12	0.59
Nicolas Kristof GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.06
Lukas Pinckert DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Maurice Krattenmacher AML	87	0	1	3	3	0.26	0.63	0.89
David Mokwa FW	86	0	0	2	0	0.24	0.00	0.24
Frederik Schmahl Sub	51	1	0	1	1	0.62	0.02	0.73
Luca Sirch Sub	51	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.14	0.14
Noah Darvich AMC	39	0	0	2	1	0.17	0.12	0.29
Jan Gyamerah DR	39	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.09	0.13
Noel Futkeu Sub	4	0	0	2	1	0.84	0.12	0.12
Raif Adam Sub	3	0	0	1	0	0.12	0.00	0.12
Amara Condé Sub	1	0	0	1	1	0.09	0.08	0.09

Elversberg v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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The matchup, as far as the data reaches

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Every shot

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