Elversberg v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 12 Sep 2026, 18:52 UTC

Elversberg

1–2

1.03 – 3.06 xG

Bayern Munich

Shots

5 – 28

On target

1 – 5

Shots in box

3 – 16

xG per shot

0.21 – 0.11

Set-piece xG

0.00 – 0.35

Goals − xG

-0.03 – -1.07

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 13 Sep, 11:42 · 4h before kick-off

Elversberg win

12.9%

model 13.6%

Draw

13.0%

model 14.6%

Bayern Munich win

74.1%

model 71.8%

131374

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (964 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-3 7.9%
1-2 7.8%
1-4 6.0%
0-3 6.0%
0-2 5.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	80.9%	Under 2.5	19.1%
BTTS yes	69.8%	BTTS no	30.2%
Elversberg 1+	73.3%	Elversberg 2+	38.1%
Bayern Munich 1+	95.2%	Bayern Munich 2+	80.6%

Expected goals 1.32 – 3.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

97/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 21%

58.4% fair odds 1.71

strong signal · 8117 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Bayern Munich (home no bet)

Home no bet · usually 58%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 207 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1942 Elo against 1630.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bayern Munich have an estimated 74.1% win probability, against 13.0% for the draw and 12.9% for Elversberg. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.32 for Elversberg and 3.03 for Bayern Munich.

Why Elversberg

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Bayern Munich were missing 2.06 expected goal involvements a match against 0.14.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 13.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Bayern Munich can win

Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1942 Elo against 1630. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Elversberg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: David Mokwa (0.47), Lukas Petkov (0.26), Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka (0.20). Bayern Munich's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Harry Kane (0.90), Michael Olise (0.68), Luis Díaz (0.64).

Availability

2 of Bayern Munich's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Elversberg: 49% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.07 xG a match from set pieces. Bayern Munich: 67% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.53 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-13 14:48 · team_stats 2026-09-13 06:08 · availability 2026-09-13 15:42 · prediction 2026-09-12 18:52 ·

Bayern Munich are the model's most likely outcome at 74.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-3 at 7.9%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Elversberg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDLW last 6 scored 12 from 10.5 xG conceded 11 from 14.8 xG

Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDWWWDWWDW last 10 scored 35 from 31.8 xG conceded 12 from 15.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	141572	1.32–3.03	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	171469	1.69–3.30	1-3 7%	87%	78%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	141571	1.24–2.86	1-2 8%	78%	67%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win	68.1%	65.8%	33.8%	1.95×	1.52
Draw	16.1%	19.4%	24.8%	0.78×	5.16
Elversberg to win	15.8%	19.4%	41.5%	0.47×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich & both teams score	43.3%	39.0%	18.5%	2.11×	2.56
Bayern Munich & not both score	24.8%	21.8%	15.5%	1.41×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	14.5%	13.3%	19.1%	0.69×	7.53
Elversberg & both teams score	11.3%	13.3%	22.1%	0.60×	7.54
Elversberg & not both score	4.4%	4.9%	19.6%	0.25×	20.40
Draw & not both score	1.6%	4.9%	5.8%	0.84×	20.48

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich & over 1.5	63.7%	55.1%	28.0%	1.97×	1.82
Bayern Munich & over 2.5	57.4%	54.3%	23.7%	2.29×	1.84
Bayern Munich & over 3.5	43.1%	39.9%	14.2%	2.81×	2.51
Bayern Munich & under 3.5	25.1%	26.0%	19.7%	1.32×	3.85
Elversberg & over 1.5	13.7%	12.8%	35.4%	0.36×	7.78
Draw & over 1.5	14.5%	12.8%	19.1%	0.67×	7.78
Elversberg & over 2.5	12.3%	12.8%	29.4%	0.44×	7.79
Bayern Munich & under 2.5	10.8%	12.8%	10.3%	1.25×	7.79
Elversberg & over 3.5	7.7%	8.0%	20.2%	0.39×	12.55
Elversberg & under 3.5	8.1%	8.0%	21.5%	0.37×	12.55
Draw & over 2.5	8.5%	8.0%	9.5%	0.84×	12.55
Draw & under 2.5	7.5%	8.0%	15.5%	0.51×	12.55
Draw & over 3.5	8.5%	8.0%	9.5%	0.84×	12.55
Draw & under 3.5	7.5%	8.0%	15.5%	0.51×	12.55
Bayern Munich & under 1.5	4.5%	4.9%	6.0%	0.81×	20.51
Elversberg & under 2.5	3.5%	4.9%	12.3%	0.40×	20.51
Elversberg & under 1.5	2.1%	4.9%	6.3%	0.77×	20.52
Draw & under 1.5	1.6%	4.9%	5.8%	0.83×	20.52

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (1UP)	81.4%	86.9%	53.0%	1.64×	1.15
Elversberg (1UP)	38.7%	34.5%	59.5%	0.58×	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (2UP)	68.1%	68.9%	36.7%	1.88×	1.45
Elversberg (2UP)	15.8%	17.2%	44.9%	0.38×	5.80

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win 2nd half	73.3%	75.8%	29.6%	2.56×	1.32
2nd half drawn	18.5%	19.1%	33.5%	0.57×	5.24
Elversberg to win 2nd half	8.2%	7.7%	37.0%	0.21×	12.94

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.8%	86.6%	56.6%	1.53×	1.15
Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.9%	55.7%	20.7%	2.69×	1.80
Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.1%	44.3%	79.3%	0.56×	2.26
Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.2%	13.4%	43.4%	0.31×	7.49

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.8%	93.3%	74.8%	1.25×	1.07
Elversberg under 0.5 in 2nd half	60.3%	62.3%	37.8%	1.65×	1.61
Elversberg over 0.5 in 2nd half	39.7%	37.7%	62.2%	0.61×	2.65
Elversberg over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.2%	6.7%	25.2%	0.27×	14.97

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (+2.5)	98.0%	96.3%	88.3%	1.09×	1.04
Bayern Munich (+1.5)	93.7%	92.2%	75.4%	1.22×	1.09
Bayern Munich (+0.5)	84.2%	82.6%	58.5%	1.41×	1.21
Bayern Munich (-0.5)	68.1%	68.7%	33.8%	2.03×	1.46
Elversberg (+0.5)	31.9%	31.3%	66.2%	0.47×	3.19
Elversberg (-0.5)	15.8%	17.4%	41.5%	0.42×	5.75
Elversberg (-1.5)	6.3%	7.8%	24.6%	0.32×	12.75
Elversberg (-2.5)	2.0%	3.7%	11.7%	0.32×	27.07

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to concede	73.6%	77.1%	78.8%	0.98×	1.30
Bayern Munich clean sheet	26.4%	22.9%	21.2%	1.08×	4.37

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to concede in 1st half	56.2%	58.3%	51.7%	1.13×	1.71
Bayern Munich clean sheet in 1st half	43.8%	41.7%	48.3%	0.86×	2.40

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich clean sheet in 2nd half	60.3%	59.9%	37.8%	1.58×	1.67
Bayern Munich to concede in 2nd half	39.7%	40.1%	62.2%	0.65×	2.49

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich over 2.5 corners	81.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Bayern Munich under 6.5 corners	72.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Bayern Munich over 3.5 corners	67.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Bayern Munich under 5.5 corners	61.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bayern Munich over 4.5 corners	52.6%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Bayern Munich under 4.5 corners	47.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Bayern Munich over 5.5 corners	38.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bayern Munich under 3.5 corners	32.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Bayern Munich over 6.5 corners	27.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Bayern Munich under 2.5 corners	18.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich over 0.5 goals	94.0%	92.2%	74.7%	1.23×	1.09
Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals	77.0%	76.2%	43.0%	1.77×	1.31
Bayern Munich under 3.5 goals	69.2%	67.8%	92.6%	0.73×	1.47
Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals	53.2%	53.5%	21.2%	2.53×	1.87
Bayern Munich under 2.5 goals	46.8%	46.5%	78.8%	0.59×	2.15
Bayern Munich over 3.5 goals	30.8%	32.2%	7.4%	4.33×	3.11
Bayern Munich under 1.5 goals	23.0%	23.8%	57.0%	0.42×	4.20
Bayern Munich under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.8%	25.3%	0.31×	12.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 1st half	81.3%	82.8%	85.6%	0.97×	1.21
Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 1st half	54.5%	55.9%	45.7%	1.22×	1.79
Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 1st half	45.5%	44.1%	54.3%	0.81×	2.27
Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 1st half	18.7%	17.2%	14.4%	1.19×	5.83

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich scores more in 2nd half	66.1%	66.9%	36.9%	1.82×	1.49
Bayern Munich scores equally in both	20.2%	22.3%	38.8%	0.58×	4.48
Bayern Munich scores more in 1st half	13.7%	11.9%	24.5%	0.48×	8.43

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	50.5%	51.3%	37.4%	1.37×	1.95
Elversberg (away no bet)	49.5%	48.7%	62.6%	0.78×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich even goals	50.2%	52.7%	53.1%	0.99×	1.90
Bayern Munich odd goals	49.8%	47.4%	46.9%	1.01×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	65.6%	71.1%	75.6%	0.94×	1.41
Both halves over 1.5 goals	34.4%	28.9%	24.4%	1.19×	3.46

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	85.3%	83.1%	72.3%	1.15×	1.20
Both halves under 1.5 goals	14.7%	16.9%	27.7%	0.61×	5.91

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	78.8%	76.1%	66.9%	1.14×	1.31
Bayern Munich to score 2+ in a row	67.8%	62.2%	34.8%	1.79×	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	42.8%	38.3%	29.4%	1.30×	2.61
Bayern Munich to score 3+ in a row	38.0%	36.5%	12.8%	2.85×	2.74
Elversberg to score 2+ in a row	24.2%	19.6%	42.2%	0.46×	5.11
Elversberg to score 3+ in a row	5.9%	5.6%	17.6%	0.32×	17.87

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich corners (+3.5)	86.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Bayern Munich corners (+2.5)	80.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Elversberg corners (+3.5)	78.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Bayern Munich corners (+1.5)	71.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Elversberg corners (+2.5)	69.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Elversberg corners (+1.5)	59.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Bayern Munich corners (-1.5)	40.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Bayern Munich corners (-2.5)	30.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Elversberg corners (-1.5)	28.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Bayern Munich corners (-3.5)	21.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Elversberg corners (-2.5)	19.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Elversberg corners (-3.5)	13.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.43

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	27.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.9%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	36.1%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	32.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	27.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	16.0%	13.6%	5.4%	2.53×	7.37
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.54
1-3	7.9%	7.4%	4.7%	1.56×	13.54
0-2	6.3%	7.4%	4.4%	1.67×	13.54
0-3	5.9%	7.4%	3.0%	2.46×	13.54
1-1	6.0%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.54
1-4	5.5%	7.4%	1.7%	4.25×	13.54
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.54
2-3	5.2%	7.4%	2.7%	2.75×	13.54
0-0	1.6%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	57.57
0-1	4.5%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	57.56
0-4	4.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	57.56
1-0	2.1%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	57.57
2-0	1.4%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	57.57
2-1	4.0%	1.7%	6.8%	0.26×	57.56
2-4	3.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	57.56
3-0	0.6%	1.7%	2.7%	0.65×	57.58
3-1	1.8%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	57.57
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.57
3-3	2.3%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	57.57
3-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	57.57
4-0	0.2%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	57.58
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	2.2%	0.79×	57.58
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	57.58
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	57.58
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	57.58

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (2nd half DNB)	90.0%	88.0%	44.4%	1.98×	1.14
Elversberg (2nd half DNB)	10.0%	12.0%	55.6%	0.22×	8.33

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg leading at HT (DNB)	51.7%	55.5%	55.4%	1.00×	1.80
Bayern Munich leading at HT (DNB)	48.3%	44.5%	44.6%	1.00×	2.25

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw (X2)	84.2%	80.6%	58.5%	1.38×	1.24
Elversberg or Bayern Munich (12)	83.9%	80.6%	75.2%	1.07×	1.24
Elversberg or draw (1X)	31.9%	34.2%	66.2%	0.52×	2.93

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg or draw at HT	68.6%	66.4%	70.6%	0.94×	1.51
Bayern Munich or draw at HT	66.5%	66.4%	63.4%	1.05×	1.51
Elversberg or Bayern Munich at HT	64.9%	62.0%	65.8%	0.94×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw (1UP)	84.2%	88.7%	65.2%	1.36×	1.13
Elversberg or draw (1UP)	38.7%	42.5%	73.4%	0.58×	2.35

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw in 2nd half	91.8%	92.3%	63.0%	1.47×	1.08
Elversberg or Bayern Munich in 2nd half	81.5%	80.9%	66.5%	1.22×	1.24
Elversberg or draw in 2nd half	26.7%	24.2%	70.4%	0.34×	4.14

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	47.2%	50.1%	53.8%	0.93×	2.00
Neither half drawn	52.9%	49.9%	46.2%	1.08×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (DNB)	81.2%	80.1%	44.9%	1.79×	1.25
Elversberg (DNB)	18.8%	19.9%	55.1%	0.36×	5.03

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score first	66.8%	69.2%	43.7%	1.59×	1.44
Elversberg to score first	31.6%	27.1%	50.6%	0.54×	3.69
No goal scored	1.6%	4.2%	5.9%	0.72×	23.70

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.2%	57.9%	59.4%	0.97×	1.73
Not both teams to score	30.8%	42.1%	40.6%	1.04×	2.37

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	63.2%	50.5%	49.8%	1.02×	1.98
Not both score & under 2.5	15.9%	21.2%	28.1%	0.75×	4.71
Not both score & over 2.5	14.9%	12.3%	12.6%	0.97×	8.14
Both score & under 2.5	6.0%	8.3%	9.8%	0.85×	12.00

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	70.4%	79.9%	79.8%	1.00×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	29.6%	20.1%	20.2%	0.99×	4.97

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.5%	67.4%	65.5%	1.03×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.5%	32.6%	34.5%	0.94×	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	45.4%	53.1%	51.6%	1.03×	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	23.9%	21.0%	27.8%	0.75×	4.76
Both score 1st half only	20.1%	20.9%	14.1%	1.48×	4.79
Both score in both halves	10.6%	10.7%	6.8%	1.57×	9.35

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	69.3%	70.9%	79.3%	0.89×	1.41
Both teams to score by HT	30.7%	29.1%	20.7%	1.41×	3.43

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	73.7%	73.3%	66.9%	1.09×	1.37
A half without a goal	26.3%	26.7%	33.1%	0.81×	3.74

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	47.0%	46.9%	40.0%	1.17×	2.13
2-3 goals	32.5%	31.0%	38.7%	0.80×	3.23
7+ goals	12.2%	17.1%	3.8%	4.50×	5.86
0-1 goals	8.2%	7.6%	17.9%	0.43×	13.09

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score 3+	53.2%	46.5%	21.2%	2.20×	2.15
Bayern Munich to score exactly 2	23.9%	22.4%	22.0%	1.02×	4.46
Bayern Munich to score exactly 1	16.9%	19.5%	31.9%	0.61×	5.12
Bayern Munich to score exactly 0	6.0%	8.8%	25.3%	0.35×	11.41

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to score exactly 1	35.2%	35.5%	29.2%	1.22×	2.82
Elversberg to score exactly 0	26.4%	26.1%	21.2%	1.23×	3.83
Elversberg to score exactly 2	23.4%	23.4%	22.6%	1.04×	4.27
Elversberg to score 3+	15.0%	19.1%	27.3%	0.70×	5.23

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	35.1%	38.0%	34.2%	1.11×	2.63
Elversberg leading at HT	33.5%	33.7%	36.6%	0.92×	2.97
Bayern Munich leading at HT	31.4%	33.6%	29.4%	1.14×	2.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich -1: 2	48.0%	47.3%	—	—	2.12
Bayern Munich -1: 1	31.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Bayern Munich -1: X	20.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:1)	84.2%	77.6%	58.5%	1.33×	1.29
Draw (0:1)	9.5%	9.1%	17.1%	0.53×	10.98
Elversberg (0:1)	6.3%	9.0%	24.6%	0.37×	11.06

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:2)	93.7%	91.0%	75.4%	1.21×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	4.2%	3.8%	13.1%	0.29×	26.58
Elversberg (0:2)	2.0%	3.7%	11.7%	0.32×	26.70

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:3)	98.0%	96.6%	88.3%	1.09×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	5.1%	0.47×	42.37
Elversberg (0:3)	0.5%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	42.41

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:4)	99.5%	98.1%	93.2%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	5.2%	0.24×	81.12
Elversberg (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.7%	0.71×	81.15

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (1:0)	48.0%	51.0%	17.5%	2.91×	1.96
Elversberg (1:0)	31.9%	28.9%	66.2%	0.44×	3.46
Draw (1:0)	20.1%	21.6%	16.4%	1.32×	4.62

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (2:0)	52.0%	56.5%	82.5%	0.69×	1.77
Bayern Munich (2:0)	29.1%	24.6%	7.6%	3.24×	4.07
Draw (2:0)	18.9%	15.6%	10.1%	1.54×	6.42

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	57.5%	58.7%	46.8%	1.25×	1.70
1st half highest scoring	23.9%	24.1%	26.3%	0.92×	4.14
Halves equal	18.7%	19.1%	27.1%	0.71×	5.23

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede	94.0%	93.5%	74.7%	1.25×	1.07
Elversberg clean sheet	6.0%	6.5%	25.3%	0.26×	15.42

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede in 1st half	54.5%	55.9%	45.7%	1.22×	1.79
Elversberg clean sheet in 1st half	45.5%	44.1%	54.3%	0.81×	2.27

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede in 2nd half	86.8%	87.1%	56.6%	1.54×	1.15
Elversberg clean sheet in 2nd half	13.2%	12.9%	43.4%	0.30×	7.74

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 6.5 corners	80.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Elversberg over 2.5 corners	75.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Elversberg under 5.5 corners	70.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Elversberg over 3.5 corners	59.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Elversberg under 4.5 corners	56.6%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Elversberg over 4.5 corners	43.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Elversberg under 3.5 corners	40.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Elversberg over 5.5 corners	29.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Elversberg under 2.5 corners	24.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Elversberg over 6.5 corners	19.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 3.5 goals	95.4%	96.3%	88.6%	1.09×	1.04
Elversberg under 2.5 goals	85.0%	81.9%	72.7%	1.13×	1.22
Elversberg over 0.5 goals	73.6%	74.3%	78.8%	0.94×	1.35
Elversberg under 1.5 goals	61.6%	63.3%	50.2%	1.26×	1.58
Elversberg over 1.5 goals	38.4%	36.7%	49.8%	0.74×	2.73
Elversberg under 0.5 goals	26.4%	25.7%	21.2%	1.21×	3.90
Elversberg over 2.5 goals	15.0%	18.1%	27.3%	0.66×	5.54
Elversberg over 3.5 goals	4.6%	3.7%	11.4%	0.33×	26.97

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 1st half	79.9%	77.4%	80.9%	0.96×	1.29
Elversberg over 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	58.0%	51.7%	1.12×	1.73
Elversberg under 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	42.0%	48.3%	0.87×	2.38
Elversberg over 1.5 in 1st half	20.1%	22.6%	19.1%	1.18×	4.42

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg scores more in 1st half	40.4%	42.5%	25.6%	1.66×	2.35
Elversberg scores equally in both	38.6%	37.6%	36.7%	1.02×	2.66
Elversberg scores more in 2nd half	21.0%	21.4%	37.8%	0.57×	4.67

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (home no bet)	80.9%	86.3%	57.7%	1.50×	1.16
Draw (home no bet)	19.1%	13.7%	42.3%	0.32×	7.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg even goals	53.5%	50.4%	52.4%	0.96×	1.98
Elversberg odd goals	46.5%	49.6%	47.6%	1.04×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	19.9%	18.7%	23.3%	0.80×	5.35
HT 1-0	16.4%	18.6%	19.3%	0.96×	5.37
HT 0-1	15.7%	18.6%	16.5%	1.13×	5.38
HT 1-1	13.0%	10.9%	9.8%	1.11×	9.16
Any other HT score	9.5%	7.2%	6.6%	1.08×	13.98
HT 2-0	6.8%	7.1%	9.5%	0.75×	14.02
HT 0-2	6.2%	7.1%	7.3%	0.98×	14.03
HT 2-1	5.4%	7.1%	4.3%	1.67×	14.04
HT 1-2	5.1%	7.1%	3.5%	2.05×	14.05
HT 2-2	2.1%	2.3%	1.3%	1.82×	43.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	29.5%	27.0%	20.4%	1.32×	3.71
Draw at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	25.8%	26.7%	10.0%	2.68×	3.74
Elversberg at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	12.9%	12.7%	3.8%	3.33×	7.90
Elversberg at HT / Elversberg at FT	12.5%	12.7%	28.0%	0.45×	7.90
Elversberg at HT / Draw at FT	8.1%	6.1%	5.1%	1.20×	16.51
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	6.5%	6.0%	13.9%	0.43×	16.56
Draw at HT / Elversberg at FT	2.9%	3.4%	10.6%	0.33×	29.01
Bayern Munich at HT / Draw at FT	1.5%	3.4%	6.0%	0.57×	29.06
Bayern Munich at HT / Elversberg at FT	0.4%	3.4%	3.3%	1.03×	29.11

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score last	66.7%	70.1%	44.6%	1.57×	1.43
Elversberg to score last	31.7%	32.8%	49.7%	0.66×	3.05
No goal scored	1.6%	4.2%	5.9%	0.72×	23.70

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	98.4%	95.7%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Bayern Munich to lead by 1 at any time	81.4%	87.0%	53.0%	1.64×	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	69.1%	69.6%	56.0%	1.24×	1.44
Bayern Munich to lead by 2 at any time	57.1%	55.1%	23.7%	2.32×	1.81
Elversberg to lead by 1 at any time	38.7%	34.9%	59.5%	0.59×	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	38.0%	34.9%	25.6%	1.36×	2.87
Bayern Munich to lead by 3 at any time	34.3%	29.4%	10.3%	2.86×	3.40
Elversberg to lead by 2 at any time	12.9%	10.5%	33.1%	0.32×	9.55
Elversberg to lead by 3 at any time	3.7%	1.6%	15.5%	0.11×	60.75

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich most corners	51.0%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Elversberg most corners	38.1%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	79.6%	78.5%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-5 goals	75.0%	72.3%	83.3%	0.87×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.4%	68.8%	71.2%	0.97×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.9%	68.8%	58.6%	1.17×	1.45
1-4 goals	58.7%	59.2%	72.4%	0.82×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.7%	53.4%	51.3%	1.04×	1.87
2-4 goals	52.1%	53.4%	60.3%	0.88×	1.87
4-6 goals	47.0%	48.4%	40.0%	1.21×	2.07
1-3 goals	39.1%	39.3%	50.7%	0.78×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.5%	39.3%	40.4%	0.97×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.8%	39.3%	32.7%	1.20×	2.55
2-3 goals	32.5%	35.3%	38.7%	0.91×	2.83
5-6 goals	27.5%	30.6%	18.3%	1.67×	3.26
1-2 goals	20.3%	24.8%	32.1%	0.77×	4.03
7+ goals	12.2%	15.0%	3.8%	3.96×	6.65

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich never behind	59.7%	63.0%	40.5%	1.55×	1.59
Elversberg never behind	17.0%	18.6%	47.0%	0.40×	5.38

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	51.0%	44.7%	1.14×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.0%	55.3%	0.89×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.0%	51.6%	52.7%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.0%	48.4%	47.3%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.4%	52.0%	53.0%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.6%	48.0%	47.0%	1.02×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	98.4%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	91.8%	92.2%	82.1%	1.12×	1.08
Over 2.5 goals	78.2%	77.2%	62.2%	1.24×	1.30
Under 5.5 goals	76.5%	77.2%	88.9%	0.87×	1.30
Under 4.5 goals	60.3%	61.8%	78.0%	0.79×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	59.3%	58.5%	43.6%	1.34×	1.71
Under 3.5 goals	40.7%	41.5%	56.4%	0.74×	2.41
Over 4.5 goals	39.7%	38.2%	22.0%	1.74×	2.62
Over 5.5 goals	23.5%	22.8%	11.1%	2.06×	4.39
Under 2.5 goals	21.8%	22.8%	37.8%	0.60×	4.39
Under 1.5 goals	8.2%	7.8%	17.9%	0.44×	12.85
Under 0.5 goals	1.6%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.71

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	90.5%	92.4%	77.7%	1.19×	1.08
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	86.2%	86.6%	95.9%	0.90×	1.16
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	73.1%	72.2%	53.6%	1.35×	1.39
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	72.0%	72.2%	87.6%	0.82×	1.39
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	50.6%	52.2%	72.0%	0.73×	1.92
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	49.4%	47.8%	28.0%	1.71×	2.09
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	28.0%	27.8%	12.4%	2.24×	3.60
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	26.9%	27.8%	46.4%	0.60×	3.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	13.8%	13.4%	4.1%	3.28×	7.45
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	9.5%	7.6%	22.3%	0.34×	13.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	80.1%	86.2%	76.7%	1.12×	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	78.0%	78.9%	84.8%	0.93×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	52.0%	56.5%	58.7%	0.96×	1.77
Over 1.5 in 1st half	48.0%	43.5%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
Over 2.5 in 1st half	22.0%	21.1%	15.2%	1.39×	4.73
Under 0.5 in 1st half	19.9%	13.8%	23.3%	0.59×	7.23

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	92.0%	89.2%	84.3%	1.06×	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	71.8%	77.4%	55.4%	1.40×	1.29
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	53.0%	73.4%	0.72×	1.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	47.0%	26.6%	1.77×	2.13
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	28.2%	22.6%	44.6%	0.51×	4.43
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	8.0%	10.8%	15.7%	0.69×	9.25

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to score in both halves	77.7%	78.2%	64.9%	1.20×	1.28
Bayern Munich not to score in both halves	52.7%	55.7%	72.3%	0.77×	1.80
Bayern Munich to score in both halves	47.3%	44.3%	27.7%	1.60×	2.26
Elversberg to score in both halves	22.3%	21.8%	35.1%	0.62×	4.58

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	69.2%	60.5%	59.4%	1.02×	1.65
Only Bayern Munich scores	24.8%	22.1%	15.5%	1.42×	4.53
Only Elversberg scores	4.4%	4.6%	19.6%	0.24×	21.63
Neither team scores	1.6%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.75

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	23.5%	22.4%	11.1%	2.03×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	19.6%	17.5%	21.8%	0.80×	5.70
Exactly 3 goals	18.9%	17.5%	18.8%	0.93×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	16.2%	17.5%	11.1%	1.59×	5.70
Exactly 2 goals	13.7%	12.1%	20.1%	0.60×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	6.6%	7.8%	12.2%	0.64×	12.89
Exactly 0 goals	1.6%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.18

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	32.1%	35.9%	35.6%	1.01×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.9%	28.5%	26.3%	1.08×	3.51
3+ goals in 1st half	22.0%	21.7%	15.2%	1.43×	4.61
No goals in 1st half	19.9%	15.2%	23.3%	0.65×	6.57

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	71.8%	69.1%	55.4%	1.25×	1.45
1 goal in 2nd half	20.2%	22.9%	29.1%	0.79×	4.36
No goals in 2nd half	8.0%	10.2%	15.7%	0.65×	9.76

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to win both halves	97.3%	97.2%	84.2%	1.16×	1.03
Bayern Munich not to win both halves	77.0%	75.2%	90.5%	0.83×	1.33
Bayern Munich to win both halves	23.0%	24.8%	9.5%	2.61×	4.04
Elversberg to win both halves	2.7%	2.8%	15.8%	0.18×	36.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win either half	81.7%	82.9%	49.5%	1.67×	1.21
Elversberg to win neither half	61.1%	64.9%	42.2%	1.54×	1.54
Elversberg to win either half	38.9%	35.1%	57.8%	0.61×	2.85
Bayern Munich to win neither half	18.3%	17.1%	50.5%	0.34×	5.83

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to win to nil	95.6%	96.2%	80.4%	1.20×	1.04
Bayern Munich not to win to nil	75.2%	78.3%	84.5%	0.93×	1.28
Bayern Munich to win to nil	24.8%	21.7%	15.5%	1.40×	4.61
Elversberg to win to nil	4.4%	3.8%	19.6%	0.20×	26.00

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich by 3+	29.1%	27.7%	7.6%	3.66×	3.61
Bayern Munich by 1	20.1%	24.1%	16.4%	1.47×	4.15
Bayern Munich by 2	18.9%	16.9%	10.1%	1.68×	5.91
Draw	16.1%	16.9%	24.8%	0.68×	5.91
Elversberg by 1	9.5%	7.3%	17.1%	0.43×	13.78
Elversberg by 2	4.2%	2.8%	13.1%	0.21×	35.56
Elversberg by 3+	2.0%	2.8%	11.7%	0.24×	35.62

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Elversberg 1.03 xGBayern Munich 3.07 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Elversberg attacking right Bayern Munich attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
7'	Bayern Munich	Harry Kane	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
8'	Bayern Munich	Lennart Karl	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Michael Olise
10'	Bayern Munich	Aleksandar Pavlovic	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
10'	Bayern Munich	Tom Bischof	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ismael Saibari
13'	Bayern Munich	Ismael Saibari	0.02	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Josip Stanisic
16'	Elversberg	David Mokwa	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Lasse Günther
18'	Elversberg	Noah Darvich	0.43	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Lukas Petkov
19'	Bayern Munich	Lennart Karl	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Harry Kane
24'	Bayern Munich	Harry Kane	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
25'	Bayern Munich	Dayotchanculle Upamecano	0.07	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Michael Olise
25'	Bayern Munich	Harry Kane	0.43	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Ismael Saibari
25'	Bayern Munich	Lennart Karl	0.44	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Harry Kane
35'	Elversberg	Cole Campbell	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Lasse Günther
37'	Bayern Munich	Ismael Saibari	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Michael Olise
49'	Bayern Munich	Nathaniel Brown	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Ismael Saibari
51'	Bayern Munich	Harry Kane	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Aleksandar Pavlovic
60'	Elversberg	Maurice Krattenmacher	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Noah Darvich
65'	Bayern Munich	Jamal Musiala	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Joshua Kimmich
66'	Bayern Munich	Josip Stanisic	0.23	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Michael Olise
66'	Bayern Munich	Luis Díaz	0.53	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Michael Olise
68'	Bayern Munich	Michael Olise	0.13	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Luis Díaz
69'	Bayern Munich	Michael Olise	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Shot On Post	—
70'	Bayern Munich	Alphonso Davies	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Aleksandar Pavlovic
71'	Bayern Munich	Harry Kane	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Aleksandar Pavlovic
73'	Elversberg	Noel Futkeu	0.44	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
76'	Bayern Munich	Aleksandar Pavlovic	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Harry Kane
76'	Bayern Munich	Harry Kane	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Luis Díaz
78'	Bayern Munich	Aleksandar Pavlovic	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Alphonso Davies
85'	Bayern Munich	Jamal Musiala	0.07	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
85'	Bayern Munich	Joshua Kimmich	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Harry Kane
86'	Bayern Munich	Alphonso Davies	0.05	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
89'	Bayern Munich	Michael Olise	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Harry Kane
91'	Bayern Munich	Michael Olise	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Luis Díaz

Players

Bayern Munich

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Harry Kane FW	90	1	1	6	5	0.83	0.67	1.61
Michael Olise AMC	90	0	0	4	5	0.28	0.93	1.21
Josip Stanisic DR	90	0	0	1	1	0.23	0.02	1.20
Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC	90	0	1	3	3	0.16	0.24	1.36
Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.07	0.00	0.80
Jonas Urbig GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.20
Kim Min-Jae DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.54
Lennart Karl AMR	70	1	0	3	0	0.55	0.00	0.67
Nathaniel Brown DL	70	0	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.25
Ismael Saibari AML	70	0	0	2	3	0.05	0.54	0.80
Tom Bischof DMC	70	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.84
Luis Díaz Sub	20	0	0	1	3	0.53	0.30	0.89
Jamal Musiala Sub	20	0	0	2	0	0.11	0.00	0.28
Alphonso Davies Sub	20	0	0	2	1	0.11	0.04	0.40
Joshua Kimmich Sub	20	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.04	0.28

Elversberg

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Maximilian Rohr DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Lasse Günther DL	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.11	0.11
Jan Gyamerah DR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Nicolas Kristof GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Lukas Pinckert DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Lukasz Poreba DMC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Lukas Petkov AMR	88	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.43	0.49
Noah Darvich Sub	80	0	1	1	1	0.43	0.05	0.47
David Mokwa FW	78	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.06
Felix Keidel DMC	78	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Cole Campbell AML	51	0	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.05
Maurice Krattenmacher Sub	39	1	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.05
Noel Futkeu Sub	12	0	0	1	0	0.44	0.00	0.44
Amara Condé Sub	12	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka AMC	10	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Luca Schnellbacher Sub	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Elversberg v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

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Positive factors

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Why Elversberg

Why the draw is live

Why Bayern Munich can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

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Expected goals by minute

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Every shot

Players

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Elversberg

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