Elversberg v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Elversberg

14:30 UTC

Mainz 05

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 1,279h before kick-off

Elversberg win

30.5%

model 32.6%

Draw

23.3%

model 23.2%

Mainz 05 win

46.2%

model 44.2%

312346

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.3%
1-2 9.0%
2-1 7.6%
0-1 7.0%
2-2 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	62.2%	Under 2.5	37.8%
BTTS yes	63.4%	BTTS no	36.6%
Elversberg 1+	76.9%	Elversberg 2+	43.1%
Mainz 05 1+	82.4%	Mainz 05 2+	51.9%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Mainz 05 to win either half

Win either half · usually 49%

63.6% fair odds 1.57

moderate signal · 947 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Mainz 05 (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 453 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Mainz 05 average 2.94 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mainz 05 have an estimated 46.2% win probability, against 30.5% for Elversberg and 23.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Elversberg and 1.74 for Mainz 05.

Why Elversberg

Elversberg carry the stronger rating, 1630 Elo against 1553. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Mainz 05 were missing 0.45 expected goal involvements a match against 0.12.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Mainz 05 can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Mainz 05 average 2.94 xG a match.

Key players

Elversberg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: David Mokwa (0.48), Lukas Petkov (0.26), Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka (0.20). Mainz 05's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Phillip Tietz (0.61), Nadiem Amiri (0.55), Sheraldo Becker (0.54).

Availability

Mainz 05 changed goalkeeper for their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Elversberg: 49% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.07 xG a match from set pieces. Mainz 05: 48% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.52 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Mainz 05 are the model's most likely outcome at 46.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.3%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDLWLWDW last 10 scored 18 from 23.4 xG conceded 12 from 15.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	332344	1.47–1.74	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	402040	2.21–2.20	2-2 7%	82%	79%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win	44.2%	44.0%	33.7%	1.31×	2.27
Elversberg to win	32.6%	29.0%	41.6%	0.70×	3.44
Draw	23.2%	22.1%	24.8%	0.89×	4.52

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 & both teams score	25.2%	26.3%	18.4%	1.43×	3.80
Elversberg & both teams score	19.1%	17.8%	22.2%	0.80×	5.63
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	17.8%	19.1%	0.93×	5.63
Mainz 05 & not both score	19.0%	17.8%	15.5%	1.15×	5.63
Elversberg & not both score	13.5%	12.2%	19.6%	0.62×	8.22
Draw & not both score	4.1%	3.7%	5.9%	0.63×	27.16

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 & over 1.5	37.2%	37.5%	27.8%	1.35×	2.67
Mainz 05 & over 2.5	31.0%	33.1%	23.6%	1.41×	3.02
Elversberg & over 1.5	26.7%	25.5%	35.4%	0.72×	3.92
Mainz 05 & under 3.5	25.7%	25.5%	19.8%	1.29×	3.92
Elversberg & over 2.5	22.3%	21.5%	29.4%	0.73×	4.65
Elversberg & under 3.5	20.0%	21.5%	21.5%	1.00×	4.65
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	17.6%	19.1%	0.92×	5.69
Mainz 05 & over 3.5	18.5%	17.6%	14.1%	1.25×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	14.4%	12.7%	15.5%	0.82×	7.86
Draw & under 3.5	14.4%	12.7%	15.5%	0.82×	7.86
Mainz 05 & under 2.5	13.2%	12.7%	10.3%	1.24×	7.86
Elversberg & over 3.5	12.6%	12.7%	20.3%	0.63×	7.86
Elversberg & under 2.5	10.3%	12.7%	12.3%	1.03×	7.87
Draw & over 2.5	8.8%	7.5%	9.5%	0.79×	13.40
Draw & over 3.5	8.8%	7.5%	9.5%	0.79×	13.40
Mainz 05 & under 1.5	7.0%	7.5%	6.0%	1.24×	13.41
Elversberg & under 1.5	5.9%	7.5%	6.3%	1.18×	13.42
Draw & under 1.5	4.1%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (1UP)	62.1%	63.9%	52.9%	1.21×	1.57
Elversberg (1UP)	52.4%	52.4%	59.6%	0.88×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (2UP)	44.2%	46.7%	36.6%	1.28×	2.14
Elversberg (2UP)	32.6%	30.6%	45.0%	0.68×	3.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win 2nd half	50.7%	48.5%	29.6%	1.64×	2.06
2nd half drawn	31.5%	33.7%	33.4%	1.01×	2.97
Elversberg to win 2nd half	17.7%	20.1%	37.1%	0.54×	4.96

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (+2.5)	94.4%	92.4%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Mainz 05 (+1.5)	84.9%	82.4%	75.3%	1.09×	1.21
Mainz 05 (+0.5)	67.4%	69.0%	58.4%	1.18×	1.45
Elversberg (+0.5)	55.8%	57.1%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Mainz 05 (-0.5)	44.2%	42.9%	33.7%	1.27×	2.33
Elversberg (-0.5)	32.6%	31.0%	41.6%	0.75×	3.22
Elversberg (-1.5)	15.1%	17.6%	24.7%	0.71×	5.67
Elversberg (-2.5)	5.6%	7.6%	11.7%	0.65×	13.09

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to concede	76.9%	76.0%	78.8%	0.96×	1.32
Mainz 05 clean sheet	23.1%	24.0%	21.2%	1.13×	4.17

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to concede in 1st half	59.7%	60.4%	51.8%	1.17×	1.66
Mainz 05 clean sheet in 1st half	40.3%	39.6%	48.2%	0.82×	2.53

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 under 3.5 goals	90.1%	92.6%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Mainz 05 over 0.5 goals	82.4%	82.2%	74.7%	1.10×	1.22
Mainz 05 under 2.5 goals	74.7%	72.0%	79.0%	0.91×	1.39
Mainz 05 over 1.5 goals	51.9%	51.9%	42.9%	1.21×	1.93
Mainz 05 under 1.5 goals	48.1%	48.1%	57.1%	0.84×	2.08
Mainz 05 over 2.5 goals	25.3%	28.0%	21.0%	1.33×	3.57
Mainz 05 under 0.5 goals	17.6%	17.8%	25.3%	0.70×	5.62
Mainz 05 over 3.5 goals	9.9%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.48

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	87.7%	85.7%	1.02×	1.14
Mainz 05 under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	59.1%	54.4%	1.09×	1.69
Mainz 05 over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	40.9%	45.6%	0.90×	2.45
Mainz 05 over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	12.3%	14.3%	0.86×	8.11

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (away no bet)	58.4%	59.1%	62.6%	0.94×	1.69
Draw (away no bet)	41.6%	40.9%	37.4%	1.09×	2.45

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 even goals	51.5%	52.4%	53.2%	0.99×	1.91
Mainz 05 odd goals	48.5%	47.6%	46.8%	1.02×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.6%	79.7%	75.8%	1.05×	1.26
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.4%	20.3%	24.2%	0.84×	4.92

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.6%	71.3%	72.3%	0.99×	1.40
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.4%	28.7%	27.7%	1.03×	3.49

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.0%	61.5%	66.9%	0.92×	1.63
Mainz 05 to score 2+ in a row	41.4%	45.0%	34.7%	1.30×	2.22
Elversberg to score 2+ in a row	32.1%	33.9%	42.3%	0.80×	2.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.1%	25.1%	29.5%	0.85×	3.99
Mainz 05 to score 3+ in a row	15.6%	17.8%	12.8%	1.39×	5.62
Elversberg to score 3+ in a row	10.0%	12.1%	17.6%	0.69×	8.24

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.3%	11.6%	9.8%	1.18×	8.64
1-2	9.0%	7.3%	6.8%	1.07×	13.74
2-1	7.6%	7.3%	6.8%	1.07×	13.74
0-1	7.0%	7.3%	6.0%	1.21×	13.75
2-2	6.6%	7.3%	6.3%	1.15×	13.75
0-2	6.1%	7.3%	4.4%	1.64×	13.75
1-0	5.9%	7.3%	6.3%	1.15×	13.75
1-3	5.2%	7.3%	4.6%	1.58×	13.76
0-0	4.1%	1.8%	5.9%	0.31×	55.41
2-0	4.4%	1.8%	6.2%	0.29×	55.40
2-3	3.8%	1.8%	2.7%	0.67×	55.41
3-1	3.7%	1.8%	6.2%	0.29×	55.42
Any other score	4.8%	1.8%	5.4%	0.34×	55.39
0-3	3.6%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.42
3-2	3.2%	1.8%	3.5%	0.52×	55.43
0-4	1.5%	1.8%	1.6%	1.14×	55.47
1-4	2.3%	1.8%	1.7%	1.04×	55.45
2-4	1.7%	1.8%	1.1%	1.63×	55.47
3-0	2.1%	1.8%	2.7%	0.67×	55.46
3-3	1.9%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.46
4-1	1.4%	1.8%	2.2%	0.81×	55.47
3-4	0.8%	1.8%	1.4%	1.27×	55.49
4-0	0.8%	1.8%	3.6%	0.50×	55.49
4-2	1.2%	1.8%	1.1%	1.63×	55.48
4-3	0.7%	1.8%	0.9%	1.90×	55.49
4-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.5%	3.80×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg leading at HT (DNB)	65.2%	66.7%	55.5%	1.20×	1.50
Mainz 05 leading at HT (DNB)	34.8%	33.3%	44.5%	0.75×	3.00

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg or Mainz 05 (12)	76.8%	77.9%	75.2%	1.04×	1.28
Mainz 05 or draw (X2)	67.4%	71.0%	58.4%	1.22×	1.41
Elversberg or draw (1X)	55.8%	56.0%	66.3%	0.85×	1.79

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg or draw at HT	77.8%	78.7%	70.7%	1.11×	1.27
Elversberg or Mainz 05 at HT	63.9%	63.2%	65.8%	0.96×	1.58
Mainz 05 or draw at HT	58.4%	58.2%	63.4%	0.92×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw (1UP)	67.4%	75.0%	65.1%	1.15×	1.33
Elversberg or draw (1UP)	55.8%	63.7%	73.5%	0.87×	1.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw in 2nd half	82.3%	79.9%	62.9%	1.27×	1.25
Elversberg or Mainz 05 in 2nd half	68.5%	66.3%	66.6%	1.00×	1.51
Elversberg or draw in 2nd half	49.3%	51.5%	70.4%	0.73×	1.94

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.3%	57.9%	53.7%	1.08×	1.73
Neither half drawn	43.7%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.37

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (DNB)	57.6%	63.2%	44.7%	1.41×	1.58
Elversberg (DNB)	42.4%	36.8%	55.3%	0.67×	2.72

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score first	52.1%	53.6%	43.6%	1.23×	1.86
Elversberg to score first	43.9%	41.5%	50.7%	0.82×	2.41
No goal scored	4.1%	4.0%	5.9%	0.69×	24.79

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.4%	57.6%	59.3%	0.97×	1.74
Not both teams to score	36.6%	42.4%	40.7%	1.04×	2.36

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	53.1%	47.1%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	27.5%	31.5%	28.2%	1.12×	3.18
Both score & under 2.5	10.3%	11.7%	9.8%	1.19×	8.55
Not both score & over 2.5	9.1%	8.7%	12.7%	0.69×	11.44

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	77.6%	83.6%	79.7%	1.05×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	22.4%	16.4%	20.3%	0.81×	6.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.6%	70.4%	65.6%	1.07×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.4%	29.6%	34.4%	0.86×	3.37

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.1%	54.8%	51.7%	1.06×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	21.7%	24.4%	27.7%	0.88×	4.10
Both score 1st half only	18.5%	18.2%	14.1%	1.29×	5.48
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.5%	6.8%	0.95×	15.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	73.8%	74.4%	79.2%	0.94×	1.34
Both teams to score by HT	26.2%	25.6%	20.8%	1.23×	3.91

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.5%	63.1%	66.9%	0.94×	1.58
A half without a goal	36.5%	36.9%	33.1%	1.11×	2.71

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.1%	43.2%	38.8%	1.11×	2.32
4-6 goals	35.4%	35.3%	39.9%	0.88×	2.84
0-1 goals	17.0%	20.7%	17.9%	1.16×	4.83
7+ goals	4.5%	2.0%	3.8%	0.52×	50.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score exactly 1	30.5%	33.2%	32.0%	1.04×	3.01
Mainz 05 to score exactly 2	26.6%	27.1%	22.0%	1.23×	3.70
Mainz 05 to score 3+	25.3%	27.0%	21.0%	1.28×	3.70
Mainz 05 to score exactly 0	17.6%	18.4%	25.3%	0.73×	5.45

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to score exactly 1	33.8%	30.6%	29.1%	1.05×	3.27
Elversberg to score exactly 2	24.8%	23.0%	22.6%	1.02×	4.35
Elversberg to score exactly 0	23.1%	23.0%	21.2%	1.08×	4.36
Elversberg to score 3+	18.3%	18.5%	27.4%	0.68×	5.40

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg leading at HT	41.6%	41.8%	36.6%	1.14×	2.39
Draw at HT	36.1%	36.8%	34.2%	1.07×	2.72
Mainz 05 leading at HT	22.2%	21.3%	29.3%	0.73×	4.70

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 -1: 1	55.8%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Mainz 05 -1: 2	23.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Mainz 05 -1: X	20.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:1)	67.4%	69.9%	58.4%	1.20×	1.43
Draw (0:1)	17.5%	18.3%	17.1%	1.07×	5.47
Elversberg (0:1)	15.1%	18.2%	24.7%	0.74×	5.49

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:2)	84.9%	83.8%	75.3%	1.11×	1.19
Draw (0:2)	9.5%	7.2%	13.1%	0.55×	13.83
Elversberg (0:2)	5.6%	7.1%	11.7%	0.61×	14.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:3)	94.4%	92.7%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.9%	2.3%	5.1%	0.46×	42.75
Elversberg (0:3)	1.7%	2.3%	6.8%	0.34×	43.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:4)	98.3%	98.1%	93.2%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	5.2%	0.24×	80.69
Elversberg (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.7%	0.71×	81.12

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (1:0)	55.8%	57.1%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Mainz 05 (1:0)	23.4%	23.0%	17.4%	1.32×	4.36
Draw (1:0)	20.8%	22.9%	16.5%	1.39×	4.37

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (2:0)	76.6%	77.6%	82.6%	0.94×	1.29
Draw (2:0)	13.3%	12.1%	10.0%	1.22×	8.24
Mainz 05 (2:0)	10.1%	12.0%	7.6%	1.58×	8.33

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.3%	49.4%	46.9%	1.05×	2.03
1st half highest scoring	33.4%	26.0%	26.3%	0.99×	3.85
Halves equal	23.2%	23.2%	26.9%	0.86×	4.32

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede	82.4%	84.7%	74.7%	1.13×	1.18
Elversberg clean sheet	17.6%	15.3%	25.3%	0.60×	6.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	59.0%	54.4%	1.08×	1.70
Elversberg to concede in 1st half	43.9%	41.0%	45.6%	0.90×	2.44

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 3.5 goals	93.9%	92.1%	88.6%	1.04×	1.09
Elversberg under 2.5 goals	81.7%	82.4%	72.6%	1.13×	1.21
Elversberg over 0.5 goals	76.9%	76.7%	78.8%	0.97×	1.30
Elversberg under 1.5 goals	56.9%	55.7%	50.2%	1.11×	1.80
Elversberg over 1.5 goals	43.1%	44.3%	49.8%	0.89×	2.26
Elversberg under 0.5 goals	23.1%	23.3%	21.2%	1.10×	4.30
Elversberg over 2.5 goals	18.3%	17.6%	27.4%	0.64×	5.68
Elversberg over 3.5 goals	6.1%	7.9%	11.4%	0.69×	12.70

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 1st half	76.9%	79.1%	80.8%	0.98×	1.26
Elversberg over 0.5 in 1st half	59.7%	60.2%	51.8%	1.16×	1.66
Elversberg under 0.5 in 1st half	40.3%	39.8%	48.2%	0.83×	2.51
Elversberg over 1.5 in 1st half	23.1%	20.9%	19.2%	1.09×	4.78

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (home no bet)	65.6%	68.1%	57.6%	1.18×	1.47
Draw (home no bet)	34.4%	31.9%	42.4%	0.75×	3.13

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg even goals	52.7%	50.3%	52.5%	0.96×	1.99
Elversberg odd goals	47.3%	49.7%	47.5%	1.05×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	22.6%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.42
HT 1-0	20.6%	22.6%	19.3%	1.17×	4.43
HT 0-1	13.1%	11.2%	16.5%	0.68×	8.93
HT 1-1	11.9%	11.2%	9.8%	1.14×	8.94
HT 2-0	9.3%	7.7%	9.5%	0.81×	12.97
Any other HT score	8.4%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.99
HT 2-1	5.4%	7.7%	4.3%	1.79×	13.03
HT 0-2	3.8%	2.5%	7.1%	0.35×	39.79
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.5%	3.5%	0.72×	39.80
HT 2-2	1.6%	2.5%	1.3%	1.98×	39.91

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg at HT / Elversberg at FT	25.5%	27.0%	28.1%	0.96×	3.70
Mainz 05 at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	19.1%	16.8%	20.3%	0.83×	5.96
Draw at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	18.3%	16.8%	10.0%	1.68×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.4%	12.0%	13.9%	0.86×	8.36
Elversberg at HT / Draw at FT	9.3%	6.6%	5.1%	1.30×	15.17
Elversberg at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	6.8%	6.6%	3.8%	1.73×	15.23
Draw at HT / Elversberg at FT	6.4%	6.6%	10.6%	0.62×	15.24
Mainz 05 at HT / Draw at FT	2.4%	3.4%	6.0%	0.56×	29.41
Mainz 05 at HT / Elversberg at FT	0.7%	3.4%	3.3%	1.02×	29.48

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score last	52.1%	53.6%	44.5%	1.20×	1.87
Elversberg to score last	43.9%	40.4%	49.8%	0.81×	2.47
No goal scored	4.1%	4.0%	5.9%	0.69×	24.79

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.0%	96.0%	94.1%	1.02×	1.04
Mainz 05 to lead by 1 at any time	62.1%	64.4%	52.9%	1.22×	1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.2%	51.0%	55.9%	0.91×	1.96
Elversberg to lead by 1 at any time	52.4%	50.9%	59.6%	0.85×	1.96
Mainz 05 to lead by 2 at any time	31.3%	32.0%	23.6%	1.36×	3.12
Elversberg to lead by 2 at any time	22.3%	19.8%	33.1%	0.60×	5.05
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.8%	19.7%	25.7%	0.77×	5.06
Mainz 05 to lead by 3 at any time	13.0%	11.3%	10.3%	1.10×	8.82
Elversberg to lead by 3 at any time	7.8%	7.1%	15.5%	0.45×	14.18

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.8%	83.2%	1.06×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.5%	78.9%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.9%	73.6%	72.3%	1.02×	1.36
2-5 goals	72.4%	73.6%	71.2%	1.03×	1.36
2-4 goals	60.9%	62.3%	60.3%	1.03×	1.61
3-6 goals	57.7%	58.7%	58.5%	1.00×	1.70
1-3 goals	56.1%	58.7%	50.8%	1.16×	1.70
3-5 goals	51.5%	52.3%	51.3%	1.02×	1.91
2-3 goals	43.1%	43.6%	38.8%	1.13×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.1%	43.6%	40.3%	1.08×	2.29
4-6 goals	35.4%	38.8%	39.9%	0.97×	2.58
1-2 goals	33.8%	34.1%	32.1%	1.06×	2.93
4-5 goals	29.3%	30.5%	32.6%	0.94×	3.28
5-6 goals	17.6%	18.1%	18.4%	0.99×	5.52
7+ goals	4.5%	2.1%	3.8%	0.54×	48.58

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 never behind	43.6%	50.8%	40.4%	1.26×	1.97
Elversberg never behind	33.8%	36.2%	47.1%	0.77×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.1%	44.8%	1.12×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.9%	55.2%	0.90×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.6%	51.9%	52.6%	0.99×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.4%	48.1%	47.4%	1.02×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.7%	52.9%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.3%	47.1%	1.03×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.0%	95.6%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.4%	88.8%	88.9%	1.00×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	83.0%	81.0%	82.1%	0.99×	1.24
Under 4.5 goals	78.0%	78.3%	78.0%	1.00×	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	62.1%	61.5%	62.2%	0.99×	1.63
Under 3.5 goals	60.1%	61.5%	56.5%	1.09×	1.63
Over 3.5 goals	39.9%	38.5%	43.5%	0.89×	2.59
Under 2.5 goals	37.9%	38.5%	37.8%	1.02×	2.60
Over 4.5 goals	22.0%	21.7%	22.0%	0.99×	4.60
Under 1.5 goals	17.0%	19.0%	17.9%	1.06×	5.26
Over 5.5 goals	10.6%	11.2%	11.1%	1.01×	8.93
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.2%	97.2%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.0%	88.1%	87.6%	1.01×	1.14
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.5%	76.5%	77.7%	0.99×	1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.2%	72.1%	72.0%	1.00×	1.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.3%	53.0%	53.5%	0.99×	1.89
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.7%	47.0%	46.5%	1.01×	2.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.8%	27.9%	28.0%	0.99×	3.59
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.5%	23.5%	22.3%	1.05×	4.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.0%	11.9%	12.4%	0.96×	8.42
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.8%	2.8%	4.1%	0.68×	35.71

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.2%	83.5%	84.8%	0.99×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 1st half	77.4%	78.0%	76.7%	1.02×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	56.2%	60.0%	58.8%	1.02×	1.67
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.8%	40.0%	41.2%	0.97×	2.50
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.6%	22.0%	23.3%	0.94×	4.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.8%	16.5%	15.2%	1.08×	6.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	82.1%	84.3%	0.97×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	80.2%	73.4%	1.09×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.7%	51.9%	44.7%	1.16×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.3%	48.1%	55.3%	0.87×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	19.8%	26.6%	0.74×	5.05
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	17.9%	15.7%	1.14×	5.57

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to score in both halves	74.5%	70.5%	64.8%	1.09×	1.42
Mainz 05 not to score in both halves	69.9%	67.2%	72.4%	0.93×	1.49
Mainz 05 to score in both halves	30.1%	32.8%	27.6%	1.19×	3.04
Elversberg to score in both halves	25.5%	29.5%	35.2%	0.84×	3.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.4%	58.3%	59.3%	0.98×	1.72
Only Mainz 05 scores	19.0%	16.5%	15.5%	1.06×	6.08
Only Elversberg scores	13.5%	10.8%	19.6%	0.55×	9.23
Neither team scores	4.1%	3.9%	5.9%	0.67×	25.60

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	21.5%	18.8%	1.14×	4.64
Exactly 2 goals	20.8%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	17.8%	18.6%	21.7%	0.86×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	13.0%	12.4%	12.2%	1.02×	8.09
Exactly 5 goals	11.4%	12.4%	11.1%	1.12×	8.10
6 or more goals	10.6%	12.3%	11.1%	1.11×	8.10
Exactly 0 goals	4.1%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.88

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.3%	47.4%	55.3%	0.86×	2.11
1 goal in 2nd half	30.8%	33.1%	29.2%	1.14×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	17.9%	18.4%	15.7%	1.17×	5.44

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to win both halves	92.6%	93.4%	84.2%	1.11×	1.07
Mainz 05 not to win both halves	88.7%	87.6%	90.5%	0.97×	1.14
Mainz 05 to win both halves	11.3%	12.4%	9.5%	1.30×	8.07
Elversberg to win both halves	7.4%	6.6%	15.8%	0.42×	15.09

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win either half	61.7%	63.6%	49.4%	1.29×	1.57
Elversberg to win either half	52.0%	53.9%	57.8%	0.93×	1.85
Elversberg to win neither half	48.0%	46.1%	42.2%	1.09×	2.17
Mainz 05 to win neither half	38.3%	36.4%	50.6%	0.72×	2.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to win to nil	86.5%	88.2%	80.4%	1.10×	1.13
Mainz 05 not to win to nil	81.0%	83.2%	84.5%	0.98×	1.20
Mainz 05 to win to nil	19.0%	16.8%	15.5%	1.08×	5.95
Elversberg to win to nil	13.5%	11.8%	19.6%	0.60×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.2%	23.7%	24.8%	0.96×	4.21
Mainz 05 by 1	20.8%	23.7%	16.5%	1.44×	4.22
Elversberg by 1	17.5%	17.0%	17.1%	0.99×	5.89
Mainz 05 by 2	13.3%	11.9%	10.0%	1.19×	8.43
Mainz 05 by 3+	10.1%	11.8%	7.6%	1.56×	8.46
Elversberg by 2	9.5%	7.1%	13.1%	0.54×	14.06
Elversberg by 3+	5.6%	7.1%	11.7%	0.60×	14.14