Emelec v Manta F.C. — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · ECU-LigaPro · 2627

ECU-LigaPro results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Emelec

1–0

00:00 UTC

Manta F.C.

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 7 Sep, 07:51 · 16h before kick-off

Emelec win

51.4%

model 50.5%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.8%

Manta F.C. win

21.3%

model 23.8%

512721

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 14.2%
1-1 12.0%
2-0 10.0%
2-1 9.0%
0-0 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	41.9%	Under 2.5	58.1%
BTTS yes	45.1%	BTTS no	54.9%
Emelec 1+	76.7%	Emelec 2+	42.7%
Manta F.C. 1+	59.4%	Manta F.C. 2+	22.8%

Expected goals 1.46 – 0.90. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Even number of goals

Odd/Even · usually 49%

50.3% fair odds 1.99

moderate signal · 2377 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Manta F.C. not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Emelec carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1377.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Emelec have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 27.3% for the draw and 21.3% for Manta F.C.. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for Emelec and 0.90 for Manta F.C..

Why Emelec

Emelec carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1377.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. A combined 2.36 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Manta F.C. can win

Nothing in the data singles out Manta F.C..

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Emelec, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Manta F.C., so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Emelec: 33% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Manta F.C.: 42% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Emelec are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.2%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	502624	1.46–0.90	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	502624	1.46–0.93	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	522621	1.42–0.79	1-0 16%	38%	41%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	522919	1.30–0.67	1-0 18%	31%	35%	Home ✓
deep	532720	1.40–0.74	1-0 17%	36%	39%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to win	53.0%	51.5%	44.4%	1.16×	1.94
Draw	26.9%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.58
Manta F.C. to win	20.1%	24.4%	29.4%	0.83×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec & not both score	36.3%	33.3%	25.5%	1.30×	3.01
Emelec & both teams score	16.7%	18.0%	19.0%	0.94×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	15.4%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Manta F.C. & not both score	13.2%	13.3%	17.9%	0.74×	7.53
Draw & not both score	11.5%	13.3%	7.9%	1.67×	7.54
Manta F.C. & both teams score	6.9%	8.3%	11.6%	0.72×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec & under 3.5	42.2%	40.3%	33.3%	1.21×	2.48
Emelec & over 1.5	36.2%	34.8%	32.2%	1.08×	2.87
Emelec & under 2.5	28.3%	26.1%	20.0%	1.31×	3.84
Emelec & over 2.5	24.7%	21.6%	24.6%	0.88×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	23.4%	21.6%	22.2%	0.97×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	23.4%	21.6%	22.2%	0.97×	4.63
Manta F.C. & under 3.5	17.5%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
Emelec & under 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	12.4%	1.45×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.4%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	11.5%	12.8%	7.9%	1.62×	7.79
Manta F.C. & under 2.5	12.2%	12.8%	15.0%	0.86×	7.79
Emelec & over 3.5	10.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.14×	7.79
Manta F.C. & over 1.5	11.1%	12.8%	19.0%	0.67×	7.79
Manta F.C. & under 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.62
Manta F.C. & over 2.5	7.8%	7.9%	14.6%	0.54×	12.62
Draw & over 2.5	3.5%	4.8%	4.4%	1.08×	20.85
Draw & over 3.5	3.5%	4.8%	4.4%	1.08×	20.85
Manta F.C. & over 3.5	2.5%	4.8%	7.4%	0.65×	20.86

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (1UP)	63.7%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Manta F.C. (1UP)	33.7%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (2UP)	53.0%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Manta F.C. (2UP)	20.1%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to win 2nd half	41.1%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	39.9%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Manta F.C. to win 2nd half	19.0%	18.4%	—	—	5.44

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.7%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Manta F.C. under 0.5 in 2nd half	64.2%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Manta F.C. over 0.5 in 2nd half	35.8%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
Manta F.C. over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.3%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.0%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Emelec over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.9%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Emelec under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.1%	45.6%	—	—	2.20
Emelec over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.73

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. (+2.5)	90.0%	88.5%	92.2%	0.96×	1.13
Emelec (+0.5)	79.9%	78.5%	70.6%	1.11×	1.27
Manta F.C. (+1.5)	73.9%	73.7%	80.6%	0.91×	1.36
Emelec (-0.5)	53.0%	52.5%	44.4%	1.18×	1.91
Manta F.C. (+0.5)	47.0%	47.5%	55.6%	0.85×	2.10
Emelec (-1.5)	26.1%	26.3%	19.4%	1.36×	3.80
Manta F.C. (-0.5)	20.1%	21.5%	29.4%	0.73×	4.65
Emelec (-2.5)	10.0%	11.5%	7.8%	1.49×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. to concede	75.3%	78.7%	74.3%	1.06×	1.27
Manta F.C. clean sheet	24.7%	21.3%	25.7%	0.83×	4.69

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. clean sheet in 1st half	54.8%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Manta F.C. to concede in 1st half	45.2%	48.9%	—	—	2.05

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. to concede in 2nd half	54.9%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Manta F.C. clean sheet in 2nd half	45.1%	46.2%	—	—	2.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. under 3.5 goals	99.3%	97.5%	96.9%	1.01×	1.03
Manta F.C. under 2.5 goals	96.1%	97.5%	89.6%	1.09×	1.03
Manta F.C. under 1.5 goals	83.1%	81.5%	73.8%	1.10×	1.23
Manta F.C. over 0.5 goals	52.2%	53.6%	66.7%	0.80×	1.87
Manta F.C. under 0.5 goals	47.8%	46.4%	33.3%	1.40×	2.15
Manta F.C. over 1.5 goals	16.9%	18.5%	26.2%	0.71×	5.39
Manta F.C. over 2.5 goals	3.9%	2.5%	10.4%	0.24×	39.91
Manta F.C. over 3.5 goals	0.7%	2.5%	3.1%	0.79×	40.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. under 1.5 in 1st half	96.4%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Manta F.C. under 0.5 in 1st half	74.4%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Manta F.C. over 0.5 in 1st half	25.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
Manta F.C. over 1.5 in 1st half	3.6%	3.9%	—	—	25.36

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. scores equally in both	54.2%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Manta F.C. scores more in 2nd half	28.3%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Manta F.C. scores more in 1st half	17.5%	18.0%	—	—	5.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (away no bet)	66.3%	66.4%	62.7%	1.06×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.7%	33.6%	37.3%	0.90×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. even goals	61.4%	59.1%	51.6%	1.15×	1.69
Manta F.C. odd goals	38.6%	40.9%	48.4%	0.85×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.0%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.0%	7.4%	—	—	13.50

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	49.7%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals	50.3%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	45.1%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Emelec to score 2+ in a row	35.5%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	14.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Emelec to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.29
Manta F.C. to score 2+ in a row	12.3%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Manta F.C. to score 3+ in a row	2.2%	2.6%	—	—	39.06

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	16.8%	13.8%	12.4%	1.12×	7.23
1-1	11.9%	11.5%	14.4%	0.79×	8.73
0-0	11.5%	11.5%	7.9%	1.44×	8.73
2-0	11.5%	11.5%	7.8%	1.48×	8.73
0-1	9.0%	7.4%	10.5%	0.70×	13.50
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	10.4%	0.72×	13.50
3-0	5.4%	7.4%	3.3%	2.23×	13.50
0-2	3.2%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.31
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.32
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.29
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.32
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.30
2-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
3-1	4.0%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
3-2	1.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.27×	58.32
4-0	1.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.63×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	9.27×	58.32
Any other score	1.5%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (2nd half DNB)	68.4%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Manta F.C. (2nd half DNB)	31.7%	31.8%	—	—	3.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec leading at HT (DNB)	70.5%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Manta F.C. leading at HT (DNB)	29.5%	27.2%	—	—	3.68

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec or draw (1X)	79.9%	75.6%	70.6%	1.07×	1.32
Emelec or Manta F.C. (12)	73.1%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Manta F.C. or draw (X2)	47.0%	48.5%	55.6%	0.87×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec or draw at HT	84.7%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Manta F.C. or draw at HT	63.6%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Emelec or Manta F.C. at HT	51.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec or draw (1UP)	79.9%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Manta F.C. or draw (1UP)	47.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec or draw in 2nd half	81.0%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
Emelec or Manta F.C. in 2nd half	60.1%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Manta F.C. or draw in 2nd half	58.9%	58.2%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	69.2%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Neither half drawn	30.8%	30.9%	—	—	3.24

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (DNB)	72.5%	71.6%	60.2%	1.19×	1.40
Manta F.C. (DNB)	27.5%	28.4%	39.9%	0.71×	3.52

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to score first	57.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Manta F.C. to score first	30.6%	27.1%	—	—	3.68
No goal scored	11.5%	9.7%	—	—	10.34

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	61.0%	56.6%	51.0%	1.11×	1.77
Both teams to score	39.0%	43.4%	49.0%	0.89×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	52.1%	47.3%	42.5%	1.11×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	27.1%	33.3%	34.8%	0.96×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	11.9%	12.4%	14.4%	0.86×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	8.7%	0.96×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.1%	89.0%	89.8%	0.99×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.9%	11.0%	10.2%	1.08×	9.12

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.4%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half	19.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	71.2%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both score 2nd half only	17.3%	15.1%	—	—	6.63
Both score 1st half only	9.2%	6.8%	—	—	14.60
Both score in both halves	2.3%	4.9%	—	—	20.44

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.5%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	11.5%	14.7%	—	—	6.82

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.8%	47.2%	47.0%	1.01×	2.12
0-1 goals	37.3%	35.2%	30.5%	1.15×	2.85
4-6 goals	16.2%	20.2%	21.3%	0.95×	4.95
7+ goals	0.6%	1.8%	1.7%	1.10×	54.62

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. to score exactly 0	47.8%	42.9%	33.3%	1.29×	2.33
Manta F.C. to score exactly 1	35.3%	35.9%	40.7%	0.88×	2.78
Manta F.C. to score exactly 2	13.0%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.78
Manta F.C. to score 3+	3.9%	4.6%	10.4%	0.44×	21.78

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.5%	35.3%	0.92×	3.07
Emelec to score exactly 0	24.7%	23.3%	25.7%	0.91×	4.29
Emelec to score exactly 2	24.1%	23.3%	24.4%	0.96×	4.29
Emelec to score 3+	16.6%	18.8%	15.0%	1.25×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Emelec leading at HT	36.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Manta F.C. leading at HT	15.3%	15.9%	—	—	6.29

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec -1: 2	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Emelec -1: X	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Emelec -1: 1	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. (0:1)	47.0%	46.1%	55.6%	0.83×	2.17
Draw (0:1)	26.9%	27.0%	25.1%	1.08×	3.70
Emelec (0:1)	26.1%	27.0%	19.4%	1.39×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. (0:2)	73.9%	75.7%	80.6%	0.94×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	16.1%	15.3%	11.8%	1.29×	6.55
Emelec (0:2)	10.0%	11.0%	7.8%	1.41×	9.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. (0:3)	90.0%	90.7%	92.2%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	6.9%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.18
Emelec (0:3)	3.1%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. (0:4)	96.9%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	2.2%	0.55×	81.98
Emelec (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.3%	0.94×	82.15

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (1:0)	79.9%	78.7%	70.6%	1.11×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.4%	12.7%	18.1%	0.70×	7.85
Manta F.C. (1:0)	5.7%	6.9%	11.5%	0.60×	14.51

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (2:0)	94.3%	94.0%	88.5%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.5%	2.3%	7.4%	0.31×	43.49
Manta F.C. (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	4.3%	0.54×	43.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.4%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Halves equal	28.6%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to concede	52.2%	53.2%	66.7%	0.80×	1.88
Emelec clean sheet	47.8%	46.8%	33.3%	1.41×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec clean sheet in 1st half	74.4%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Emelec to concede in 1st half	25.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec clean sheet in 2nd half	64.2%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Emelec to concede in 2nd half	35.8%	39.9%	—	—	2.51

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec under 3.5 goals	94.7%	92.2%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Emelec under 2.5 goals	83.4%	82.2%	85.0%	0.97×	1.22
Emelec over 0.5 goals	75.3%	77.7%	74.3%	1.05×	1.29
Emelec under 1.5 goals	59.2%	58.7%	60.8%	0.96×	1.70
Emelec over 1.5 goals	40.8%	41.3%	39.2%	1.05×	2.42
Emelec under 0.5 goals	24.7%	22.3%	25.7%	0.87×	4.49
Emelec over 2.5 goals	16.6%	17.8%	15.0%	1.19×	5.62
Emelec over 3.5 goals	5.3%	7.8%	5.5%	1.40×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec under 1.5 in 1st half	87.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Emelec under 0.5 in 1st half	54.8%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Emelec over 0.5 in 1st half	45.2%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Emelec over 1.5 in 1st half	12.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.64

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec scores equally in both	38.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.64
Emelec scores more in 2nd half	36.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Emelec scores more in 1st half	25.1%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.3%	56.4%	47.4%	1.19×	1.77
Manta F.C. (home no bet)	42.7%	43.6%	52.6%	0.83×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec even goals	53.1%	50.7%	54.2%	0.94×	1.97
Emelec odd goals	46.9%	49.3%	45.8%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.7%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
HT 1-0	24.6%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	12.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.18
HT 2-0	7.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.41
HT 1-1	7.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.41
Any other HT score	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-1	2.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 1-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.21

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec at HT / Emelec at FT	31.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Draw at HT / Emelec at FT	20.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Manta F.C. at HT / Manta F.C. at FT	9.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
Draw at HT / Manta F.C. at FT	9.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Emelec at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Manta F.C. at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.70
Manta F.C. at HT / Emelec at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Emelec at HT / Manta F.C. at FT	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.80

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to score last	57.9%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Manta F.C. to score last	30.6%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	11.5%	9.1%	—	—	11.02

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.5%	91.3%	—	—	1.10
Emelec to lead by 1 at any time	63.7%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.9%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Manta F.C. to lead by 1 at any time	33.7%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Emelec to lead by 2 at any time	30.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
Emelec to lead by 3 at any time	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.61
Manta F.C. to lead by 2 at any time	8.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.83
Manta F.C. to lead by 3 at any time	1.7%	1.6%	—	—	62.46

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	87.4%	88.9%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.9%	83.4%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	71.7%	72.4%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
2-6 goals	62.0%	63.3%	68.0%	0.93×	1.58
2-5 goals	60.5%	63.3%	66.4%	0.95×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.1%	59.1%	59.2%	1.00×	1.69
1-2 goals	52.5%	53.2%	49.0%	1.09×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.8%	48.5%	47.0%	1.03×	2.06
3-6 goals	35.4%	39.2%	41.8%	0.94×	2.55
3-5 goals	33.8%	35.2%	40.1%	0.88×	2.84
3-4 goals	29.4%	30.3%	32.9%	0.92×	3.31
4-6 goals	16.2%	18.8%	21.3%	0.88×	5.32
4-5 goals	14.6%	14.8%	19.6%	0.76×	6.74
5-6 goals	5.9%	8.9%	9.1%	0.98×	11.26
7+ goals	0.6%	2.5%	1.7%	1.53×	39.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec never behind	54.8%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Manta F.C. never behind	24.8%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.2%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Odd goals in 1st half	41.8%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.0%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.8%	95.4%	96.7%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	89.5%	1.03×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.5%	87.6%	92.1%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	83.2%	82.3%	77.3%	1.07×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	64.0%	61.8%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	62.7%	61.8%	69.5%	0.89×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	37.3%	38.2%	30.5%	1.25×	2.62
Over 2.5 goals	36.0%	38.2%	43.3%	0.88×	2.62
Over 3.5 goals	16.8%	17.7%	22.7%	0.78×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	11.5%	12.4%	7.9%	1.56×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	2.2%	4.6%	3.3%	1.37×	21.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.4%	97.2%	98.3%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.7%	97.2%	96.4%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.7%	92.4%	88.0%	1.05×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	79.2%	76.0%	71.4%	1.06×	1.32
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	50.9%	51.9%	41.4%	1.25×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	49.1%	48.1%	58.6%	0.82×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	20.8%	24.0%	28.6%	0.84×	4.16
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.3%	7.6%	12.0%	0.63×	13.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.3%	2.8%	3.6%	0.78×	35.69
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.6%	2.8%	1.7%	1.65×	35.74

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.8%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.4%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.3%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.7%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.6%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.2%	7.2%	—	—	13.85

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.1%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.2%	77.4%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.9%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.1%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.42
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.9%	14.6%	—	—	6.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. not to score in both halves	90.8%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Emelec not to score in both halves	75.2%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Emelec to score in both halves	24.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Manta F.C. to score in both halves	9.2%	10.0%	—	—	9.96

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	39.0%	39.9%	49.0%	0.81×	2.51
Only Emelec scores	36.3%	39.9%	25.5%	1.56×	2.51
Only Manta F.C. scores	13.2%	11.0%	17.9%	0.61×	9.07
Neither team scores	11.5%	11.0%	7.9%	1.39×	9.08

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.7%	24.9%	26.4%	0.94×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	25.8%	24.9%	22.7%	1.09×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	19.2%	17.5%	20.7%	0.84×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	11.5%	12.1%	7.9%	1.52×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	10.3%	12.1%	12.4%	0.98×	8.26
Exactly 5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	7.4%	0.60×	22.41
6 or more goals	2.2%	4.5%	3.3%	1.34×	22.45

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	40.7%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	16.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.42
3+ goals in 1st half	6.2%	7.2%	—	—	13.85

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.1%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
2+ goals in 2nd half	35.1%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
No goals in 2nd half	28.8%	29.5%	—	—	3.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. not to win both halves	97.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Emelec not to win both halves	85.1%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Emelec to win both halves	14.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Manta F.C. to win both halves	2.9%	2.8%	—	—	35.30

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. to win neither half	68.6%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Emelec to win either half	62.6%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Emelec to win neither half	37.4%	35.1%	—	—	2.85
Manta F.C. to win either half	31.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manta F.C. not to win to nil	86.8%	88.1%	82.1%	1.07×	1.14
Emelec not to win to nil	63.7%	66.6%	74.5%	0.89×	1.50
Emelec to win to nil	36.3%	33.4%	25.5%	1.31×	3.00
Manta F.C. to win to nil	13.2%	11.9%	17.9%	0.66×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec by 1	26.9%	27.9%	25.1%	1.11×	3.59
Draw	26.9%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59
Emelec by 2	16.1%	17.0%	11.8%	1.44×	5.87
Manta F.C. by 1	14.4%	11.8%	18.1%	0.65×	8.51
Emelec by 3+	10.0%	11.7%	7.8%	1.51×	8.52
Manta F.C. by 2	4.5%	2.7%	7.4%	0.37×	36.70
Manta F.C. by 3+	1.2%	2.7%	4.3%	0.64×	36.80

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.