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Empoli v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 8 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–2
0.67 – 1.91 xG
Shots
8 – 16
On target
0 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 0.63
Goals − xG
-0.68 – +0.09
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Rafael Leão 67' — goalSantiago Giménez 75' — goal
Empoli 0.68 xGAC Milan 1.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lorenzo Colombo 6' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Yunus Musah 9' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alberto Grassi 14' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)João Félix 20' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Colombo 32' — Shot On Post (0.14 xG, Open Play)Theo Hernández 49' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Rafael Leão 50' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Strahinja Pavlovic 51' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 52' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Luca Marianucci 56' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Luca Marianucci 56' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Set Piece)Sebastiano Esposito 57' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 58' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 59' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)João Félix 60' — Missed Shot (0.46 xG, From Corner)Christian Pulisic 66' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Rafael Leão 67' — Goal (0.38 xG, Open Play)João Félix 71' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Santiago Giménez 71' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)João Félix 74' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Santiago Giménez 75' — Goal (0.14 xG, Open Play)João Félix 81' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Ismael Konaté 87' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Saba Goglichidze 89' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)
Empoli attacking right AC Milan attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Empoli Lorenzo Colombo 0.05 Open Play Blocked Shot Giuseppe Pezzella
9' AC Milan Yunus Musah 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Tijjani Reijnders
14' Empoli Alberto Grassi 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Sebastiano Esposito
20' AC Milan João Félix 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Theo Hernández
32' Empoli Lorenzo Colombo 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post
49' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.07 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot
50' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
51' AC Milan Strahinja Pavlovic 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Fikayo Tomori
52' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Theo Hernández
56' Empoli Luca Marianucci 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Liam Henderson
56' Empoli Luca Marianucci 0.12 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
57' Empoli Sebastiano Esposito 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
58' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Tijjani Reijnders
59' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Santiago Giménez
60' AC Milan João Félix 0.46 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
66' AC Milan Christian Pulisic 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
67' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.38 Open Play Goal Christian Pulisic
71' AC Milan João Félix 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Christian Pulisic
71' AC Milan Santiago Giménez 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot João Félix
74' AC Milan João Félix 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Theo Hernández
75' AC Milan Santiago Giménez 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Goal Christian Pulisic
81' AC Milan João Félix 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Kyle Walker
87' Empoli Ismael Konaté 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Christian Kouamé
89' Empoli Saba Goglichidze 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Liberato Cacace

Players

AC Milan

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Theo Hernández DL 90 0 0 1 3 0.07 0.13 0.46
Yunus Musah AMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.79
Strahinja Pavlovic DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.44
Mike Maignan GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Kyle Walker DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.32 0.99
João Félix AMC 88 0 0 5 1 0.94 0.04 0.91
Tijjani Reijnders DMC 73 0 0 1 3 0.04 0.11 0.57
Fikayo Tomori DC 58 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.09
Youssouf Fofana DMC 50 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Tammy Abraham FW 50 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alejandro Jiménez AML 50 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Rafael Leão Sub 40 1 0 4 0 0.59 0.00 0.59
Santiago Giménez Sub 40 1 0 2 1 0.18 0.07 0.25
Christian Pulisic Sub 40 0 2 1 3 0.03 0.59 0.61
Malick Thiaw Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Filippo Terracciano Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Empoli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Emmanuel Gyasi DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Devis Vásquez GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Liberato Cacace AMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.00
Mattia De Sciglio DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giuseppe Pezzella DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Alberto Grassi MC 85 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Sebastiano Esposito AMC 84 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.09 0.11
Lorenzo Colombo FW 74 0 0 2 0 0.18 0.00 0.27
Liam Henderson MC 74 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.05
Luca Marianucci DC 69 0 0 2 0 0.20 0.00 0.00
Saba Goglichidze Sub 63 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.00
Mattia Viti DC 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Szymon Zurkowski Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Christian Kouamé Sub 16 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Ismael Konaté Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Jacopo Bacci Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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