Empoli v Hellas Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
ITA-Serie B
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.6%
- 1-0 9.6%
- 2-1 9.3%
- 0-0 8.7%
- 2-0 8.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 48.8% | Under 2.5 | 51.2% |
| BTTS yes | 53.6% | BTTS no | 46.4% |
| Empoli 1+ | 78.3% | Empoli 2+ | 45.1% |
| Hellas Verona 1+ | 66.7% | Hellas Verona 2+ | 30.1% |
Expected goals 1.53 – 1.10. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Empoli.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.90).
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Hellas Verona have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Empoli have an estimated 45.7% win probability, against 28.4% for the draw and 25.9% for Hellas Verona. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.53 for Empoli and 1.10 for Hellas Verona.
Why Empoli
Nothing in the data singles out Empoli.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.4%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Hellas Verona can win
Hellas Verona carry the stronger rating, 1463 Elo against 1384.
Key players
Empoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.29), Lorenzo Colombo (0.25), Jacopo Fazzini (0.19).
Availability
1 of Empoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Hellas Verona, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Empoli: 40% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Hellas Verona: 55% possession, 16.3 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Empoli are the model's most likely outcome at 45.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.53–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.84–0.99 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 54% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.