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Empoli v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 11 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–3
2.32 – 1.58 xG
Shots
15 – 14
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.32 – +1.42
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.31.92.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Tete Morente 5' — goalNikola Krstovic 10' — goalLiberato Cacace 46' — goalNikola Krstovic 90' — goal
Empoli 2.32 xGLecce 1.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Tete Morente 5' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Colombo 9' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Nikola Krstovic 10' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 13' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Thórir Helgason 14' — Saved Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 18' — Saved Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Alberto Grassi 33' — Missed Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 37' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 37' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tete Morente 39' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Santiago Pierotti 41' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Colombo 42' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Sebastiano Esposito 42' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Liberato Cacace 45' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Mattia De Sciglio 45' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Liberato Cacace 46' — Goal (0.91 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Colombo 54' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Liberato Cacace 56' — Saved Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Colombo 62' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Colombo 65' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Sebastiano Esposito 67' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tete Morente 72' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 74' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 75' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 75' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Junior Sambia 83' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Sebastiano Esposito 84' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 90' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jacopo Fazzini 94' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Empoli attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Lecce Tete Morente 0.28 Open Play Left Foot Goal Santiago Pierotti
9' Empoli Lorenzo Colombo 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Youssef Maleh
10' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Tete Morente
13' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Frederic Guilbert
14' Lecce Thórir Helgason 0.27 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nikola Krstovic
18' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.27 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
33' Empoli Alberto Grassi 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sebastiano Esposito
37' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Thórir Helgason
37' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
39' Lecce Tete Morente 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
41' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Dorgu
42' Empoli Lorenzo Colombo 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
42' Empoli Sebastiano Esposito 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lorenzo Colombo
45' Empoli Liberato Cacace 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Sebastiano Esposito
45' Empoli Mattia De Sciglio 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
46' Empoli Liberato Cacace 0.91 Open Play Goal Emmanuel Gyasi
54' Empoli Lorenzo Colombo 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Sebastiano Esposito
56' Empoli Liberato Cacace 0.48 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Giuseppe Pezzella
62' Empoli Lorenzo Colombo 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
65' Empoli Lorenzo Colombo 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
67' Empoli Sebastiano Esposito 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Liberato Cacace
72' Lecce Tete Morente 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Patrick Dorgu
74' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Dorgu
75' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Patrick Dorgu
75' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Tete Morente
83' Empoli Junior Sambia 0.03 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
84' Empoli Sebastiano Esposito 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Junior Sambia
90' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Patrick Dorgu
94' Empoli Jacopo Fazzini 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Liberato Cacace

Players

Empoli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Liberato Cacace AMC 90 1 0 3 2 1.48 0.10 1.57
Lorenzo Colombo FW 90 0 0 5 1 0.26 0.03 2.01
Sebastiano Esposito AMC 90 0 0 3 3 0.14 0.52 1.47
Mattia Viti DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.98
Emmanuel Gyasi DMR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.91 1.00
Saba Goglichidze DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jacopo Seghetti GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alberto Grassi MC 83 0 0 1 0 0.34 0.00 1.34
Giuseppe Pezzella DML 83 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.48 1.38
Youssef Maleh MC 78 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.64
Mattia De Sciglio Sub 70 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.13
Ardian Ismajli DC 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jacopo Fazzini Sub 12 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Junior Sambia Sub 7 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.03 0.03
Liam Henderson Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nikola Krstovic FW 90 2 0 8 1 0.80 0.27 1.17
Patrick Dorgu DL 90 0 1 1 5 0.11 0.30 0.52
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Frederic Guilbert DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.18
Gaby Jean DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Lassana Coulibaly MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.48
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Tete Morente FWL 85 1 1 3 2 0.35 0.17 0.79
Balthazar Pierret MC 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Santiago Pierotti FWR 71 0 1 1 1 0.06 0.28 0.34
Thórir Helgason MC 55 0 0 1 1 0.27 0.11 0.66
Mohamed Kaba Sub 35 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Kevin Bonifazi Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Jesper Karlsson Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ylber Ramadani Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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