Empoli v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Empoli

20:00 UTC

Pisa

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 657h before kick-off

Empoli win

44.1%

model 41.5%

Draw

28.0%

model 29.5%

Pisa win

28.0%

model 29.0%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.1%
1-0 9.6%
0-0 9.4%
2-1 8.8%
2-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.4%	Under 2.5	53.6%
BTTS yes	52.6%	BTTS no	47.4%
Empoli 1+	75.3%	Empoli 2+	40.7%
Pisa 1+	67.8%	Pisa 2+	31.3%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

53/100

Data quality

80/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

1-4 goals

Multi goal · usually 82%

78.8% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2624 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Pisa not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 87%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Empoli carry the stronger rating, 1384 Elo against 1309.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Empoli have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 28.0% for Pisa. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for Empoli and 1.13 for Pisa.

Why Empoli

Empoli carry the stronger rating, 1384 Elo against 1309.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Pisa can win

Away from home Pisa average 0.82 xG a match.

Key players

Empoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.29), Lorenzo Colombo (0.25), Jacopo Fazzini (0.19). Pisa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Stefano Moreo (0.28), Filip Stojilkovic (0.24), Henrik Meister (0.21).

Availability

1 of Empoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Pisa's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Empoli: 40% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Pisa: 46% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Empoli are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.1%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDDLDLLWWL last 10 scored 10 from 11.3 xG conceded 14 from 10.5 xG

Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 11.2 xG conceded 23 from 15.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422929	1.40–1.13	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	412930	1.42–1.19	1-1 14%	49%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to win	40.8%	42.9%	42.7%	1.00×	2.33
Pisa to win	30.2%	30.4%	25.5%	1.19×	3.29
Draw	29.0%	27.9%	31.9%	0.88×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli & not both score	21.5%	21.8%	23.9%	0.91×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.2%	21.8%	22.9%	0.95×	4.59
Empoli & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Pisa & not both score	15.3%	18.0%	13.3%	1.35×	5.57
Pisa & both teams score	14.8%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.53
Draw & not both score	8.8%	8.3%	9.1%	0.92×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli & over 1.5	31.9%	30.7%	31.8%	0.97×	3.25
Empoli & under 3.5	28.7%	26.1%	31.9%	0.82×	3.84
Empoli & over 2.5	24.5%	21.6%	24.4%	0.89×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	22.6%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	22.6%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Pisa & over 1.5	22.9%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Pisa & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	19.9%	1.08×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.2%	21.6%	22.9%	0.94×	4.63
Pisa & over 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Empoli & under 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	18.4%	0.98×	5.56
Pisa & under 2.5	12.5%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Empoli & over 3.5	12.2%	12.8%	11.0%	1.17×	7.79
Empoli & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	8.8%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Pisa & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Pisa & over 3.5	8.2%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (1UP)	57.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Pisa (1UP)	47.8%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2UP)	40.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Pisa (2UP)	30.2%	30.2%	—	—	3.31

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.3%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Empoli to win 2nd half	34.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Pisa to win 2nd half	28.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.8%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Pisa over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Pisa under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Pisa over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.2%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Empoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.6%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Empoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Empoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.73

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (+2.5)	92.4%	92.1%	93.3%	0.99×	1.09
Pisa (+1.5)	79.8%	78.5%	80.3%	0.98×	1.27
Empoli (+0.5)	69.8%	68.7%	74.5%	0.92×	1.46
Pisa (+0.5)	59.2%	57.0%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75
Empoli (-0.5)	40.8%	43.0%	42.7%	1.01×	2.33
Pisa (-0.5)	30.2%	31.3%	25.5%	1.23×	3.20
Empoli (-1.5)	20.2%	21.5%	19.7%	1.09×	4.65
Empoli (-2.5)	7.6%	7.9%	6.7%	1.17×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to concede	75.9%	78.8%	77.7%	1.01×	1.27
Pisa clean sheet	24.1%	21.2%	22.3%	0.95×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa clean sheet in 1st half	54.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Pisa to concede in 1st half	45.8%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to concede in 2nd half	55.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Pisa clean sheet in 2nd half	44.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 6.5 corners	85.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Pisa under 5.5 corners	76.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Pisa over 2.5 corners	70.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Pisa under 4.5 corners	63.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Pisa over 3.5 corners	52.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Pisa under 3.5 corners	47.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Pisa over 4.5 corners	36.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Pisa under 2.5 corners	29.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Pisa over 5.5 corners	23.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Pisa over 6.5 corners	14.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 3.5 goals	96.7%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Pisa under 2.5 goals	88.1%	87.8%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Pisa over 0.5 goals	69.7%	68.0%	67.1%	1.01×	1.47
Pisa under 1.5 goals	66.5%	68.0%	69.4%	0.98×	1.47
Pisa over 1.5 goals	33.5%	32.0%	30.6%	1.04×	3.13
Pisa under 0.5 goals	30.3%	32.0%	32.9%	0.97×	3.13
Pisa over 2.5 goals	11.9%	12.2%	9.2%	1.32×	8.20
Pisa over 3.5 goals	3.3%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.89

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 1.5 in 1st half	91.7%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Pisa under 0.5 in 1st half	62.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Pisa over 0.5 in 1st half	38.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Pisa over 1.5 in 1st half	8.3%	6.2%	—	—	16.05

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa scores equally in both	41.6%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Pisa scores more in 2nd half	36.8%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Pisa scores more in 1st half	21.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (away no bet)	58.5%	57.4%	57.3%	1.00×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.5%	42.6%	42.7%	1.00×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa even goals	54.6%	52.6%	55.4%	0.95×	1.90
Pisa odd goals	45.4%	47.4%	44.6%	1.06×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.6%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.21

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.4%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Empoli to score 2+ in a row	33.6%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Pisa to score 2+ in a row	25.5%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Empoli to score 3+ in a row	11.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Pisa to score 3+ in a row	7.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.11

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli corners (+3.5)	90.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Empoli corners (+2.5)	84.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Empoli corners (+1.5)	76.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Pisa corners (+3.5)	76.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Pisa corners (+2.5)	66.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Pisa corners (+1.5)	56.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Empoli corners (-1.5)	44.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Empoli corners (-2.5)	33.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Empoli corners (-3.5)	23.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Pisa corners (-1.5)	23.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Pisa corners (-2.5)	15.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Pisa corners (-3.5)	9.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	22.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	63.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 9.5 corners	41.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	36.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	31.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	22.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.9%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
0-0	8.8%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.51
1-0	8.9%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.51
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
0-1	7.3%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
1-2	7.4%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-0	7.4%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	3.9%	1.92×	13.51
2-2	5.3%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.32
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.31
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	3.5%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	4.2%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2nd half DNB)	54.4%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Pisa (2nd half DNB)	45.6%	46.3%	—	—	2.16

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli leading at HT (DNB)	58.0%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Pisa leading at HT (DNB)	42.0%	43.6%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or Pisa (12)	71.0%	72.1%	68.1%	1.06×	1.39
Empoli or draw (1X)	69.8%	69.6%	74.5%	0.94×	1.44
Pisa or draw (X2)	59.2%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw at HT	76.8%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Pisa or draw at HT	68.0%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Empoli or Pisa at HT	55.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw (1UP)	69.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Pisa or draw (1UP)	59.2%	63.1%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw in 2nd half	71.4%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Pisa or draw in 2nd half	65.9%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Empoli or Pisa in 2nd half	62.7%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.7%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.3%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (DNB)	57.5%	58.1%	62.6%	0.93×	1.72
Pisa (DNB)	42.5%	41.9%	37.4%	1.12×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score first	49.6%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Pisa to score first	41.6%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	8.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.37

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.4%	51.3%	53.9%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.6%	48.7%	46.1%	1.06×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.5%	41.6%	39.4%	1.06×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.5%	38.4%	37.9%	1.02×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.9%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	8.1%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.1%	85.6%	86.1%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.9%	14.4%	13.9%	1.03×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.1%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.9%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.4%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.0%	21.0%	—	—	4.76
Both score 1st half only	12.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.0%	—	—	20.09

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.7%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	47.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.3%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
4-6 goals	25.0%	22.9%	23.5%	0.97×	4.36
0-1 goals	24.9%	22.9%	26.8%	0.86×	4.36
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.36

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Pisa to score exactly 0	30.3%	33.8%	32.9%	1.03×	2.96
Pisa to score exactly 2	21.6%	22.3%	21.5%	1.03×	4.49
Pisa to score 3+	11.9%	12.9%	9.2%	1.40×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score exactly 1	34.3%	32.6%	35.9%	0.91×	3.07
Empoli to score exactly 2	24.4%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Empoli to score exactly 0	24.1%	23.3%	22.3%	1.05×	4.29
Empoli to score 3+	17.2%	18.8%	16.2%	1.16×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Empoli leading at HT	32.0%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Pisa leading at HT	23.2%	20.6%	—	—	4.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli -1: 2	59.2%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Empoli -1: X	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Empoli -1: 1	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (0:1)	59.2%	55.9%	57.3%	0.98×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	20.6%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13
Empoli (0:1)	20.2%	24.2%	19.7%	1.23×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (0:2)	79.8%	79.4%	80.3%	0.99×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.6%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.10
Empoli (0:2)	7.6%	7.7%	6.7%	1.14×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (0:3)	92.4%	92.7%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.3%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.26
Empoli (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (0:4)	97.7%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.98
Empoli (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	82.10

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (1:0)	69.8%	70.2%	74.5%	0.94×	1.42
Draw (1:0)	17.1%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85
Pisa (1:0)	13.1%	12.7%	10.0%	1.28×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2:0)	86.9%	88.5%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.9%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.65
Pisa (2:0)	4.2%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.62

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.2%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	27.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to concede	69.7%	66.8%	67.1%	0.99×	1.50
Empoli clean sheet	30.3%	33.2%	32.9%	1.01×	3.01

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli clean sheet in 1st half	62.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Empoli to concede in 1st half	38.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to concede in 2nd half	51.1%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Empoli clean sheet in 2nd half	48.9%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli over 2.5 corners	82.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Empoli under 6.5 corners	73.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Empoli over 3.5 corners	67.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Empoli under 5.5 corners	61.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Empoli over 4.5 corners	52.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Empoli under 4.5 corners	47.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Empoli over 5.5 corners	38.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Empoli under 3.5 corners	32.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Empoli over 6.5 corners	26.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Empoli under 2.5 corners	18.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 3.5 goals	94.4%	92.2%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Empoli under 2.5 goals	82.8%	82.2%	83.8%	0.98×	1.22
Empoli over 0.5 goals	75.9%	77.7%	77.7%	1.00×	1.29
Empoli under 1.5 goals	58.4%	58.6%	58.0%	1.01×	1.71
Empoli over 1.5 goals	41.6%	41.4%	42.0%	0.99×	2.42
Empoli under 0.5 goals	24.1%	22.3%	22.3%	1.00×	4.49
Empoli over 2.5 goals	17.2%	17.8%	16.2%	1.10×	5.63
Empoli over 3.5 goals	5.6%	7.8%	4.1%	1.89×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 1st half	87.4%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Empoli under 0.5 in 1st half	54.2%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Empoli over 0.5 in 1st half	45.8%	49.6%	—	—	2.02
Empoli over 1.5 in 1st half	12.6%	9.9%	—	—	10.15

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli scores equally in both	37.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.64
Empoli scores more in 2nd half	37.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Empoli scores more in 1st half	25.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (home no bet)	51.0%	51.4%	44.5%	1.16×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.0%	48.6%	55.5%	0.88×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli even goals	52.9%	50.7%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Empoli odd goals	47.1%	49.3%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
HT 1-0	20.3%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	15.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.41
HT 1-1	10.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 2-0	6.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 0-2	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.96
Any other HT score	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	41.97
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.01
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli at HT / Empoli at FT	24.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Pisa at HT / Pisa at FT	16.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Empoli at FT	14.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Pisa at FT	12.0%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Empoli at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
Pisa at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Pisa at HT / Empoli at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Empoli at HT / Pisa at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score last	49.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Pisa to score last	41.6%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	8.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.37

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Empoli to lead by 1 at any time	57.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Pisa to lead by 1 at any time	47.8%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.4%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Empoli to lead by 2 at any time	26.2%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Pisa to lead by 2 at any time	18.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Empoli to lead by 3 at any time	9.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.87
Pisa to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.04

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli most corners	55.5%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Pisa most corners	33.3%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.7%	78.7%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.3%	72.4%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.0%	72.3%	69.6%	1.04×	1.38
1-3 goals	64.5%	63.3%	66.3%	0.96×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.6%	63.3%	64.4%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.3%	48.5%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	46.8%	48.5%	46.3%	1.05×	2.06
3-5 goals	43.6%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.7%	43.6%	43.5%	1.00×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.1%	39.2%	38.7%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.0%	24.5%	23.5%	1.04×	4.09
4-5 goals	21.7%	24.5%	21.2%	1.16×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.7%	14.8%	7.7%	1.92×	6.76
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	1.4%	1.86×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli never behind	43.4%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Pisa never behind	34.1%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.8%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.2%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	96.3%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.5%	87.6%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.1%	77.3%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	73.2%	72.5%	75.2%	0.96×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.4%	52.5%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	48.6%	47.5%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26.8%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.9%	22.7%	26.8%	0.85×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	12.5%	12.4%	9.0%	1.38×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	3.7%	2.07×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.2%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.6%	92.4%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.4%	86.7%	89.3%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.1%	67.4%	64.0%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.8%	67.4%	67.9%	0.99×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.2%	32.6%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.9%	32.6%	36.0%	0.90×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.6%	13.3%	10.7%	1.25×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.4%	7.6%	3.9%	1.92×	13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.8%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.3%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.0%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.1%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.9%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.0%	28.6%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.7%	7.5%	—	—	13.33

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.2%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.8%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.4%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.6%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.2%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.8%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to score in both halves	80.6%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Empoli not to score in both halves	74.6%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Empoli to score in both halves	25.4%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
Pisa to score in both halves	19.4%	15.9%	—	—	6.29

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.4%	53.9%	53.9%	1.00×	1.86
Only Empoli scores	21.5%	22.3%	23.9%	0.93×	4.49
Only Pisa scores	15.3%	16.0%	13.3%	1.20×	6.24
Neither team scores	8.8%	7.1%	9.1%	0.78×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.5%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.2%	17.5%	17.8%	0.98×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.3%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	8.8%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	7.5%	7.6%	5.4%	1.42×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.0%	7.6%	3.7%	2.04×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	33.9%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	20.2%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	9.7%	7.5%	—	—	13.33

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.6%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.2%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	22.2%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to win both halves	93.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Empoli not to win both halves	88.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Empoli to win both halves	11.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Pisa to win both halves	6.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to win either half	55.0%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Pisa to win neither half	55.0%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Empoli to win neither half	45.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Pisa to win either half	45.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to win to nil	84.7%	83.1%	86.7%	0.96×	1.20
Empoli not to win to nil	78.5%	78.1%	76.1%	1.03×	1.28
Empoli to win to nil	21.5%	21.9%	23.9%	0.92×	4.57
Pisa to win to nil	15.3%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.0%	27.9%	31.9%	0.87×	3.59
Empoli by 1	20.6%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Pisa by 1	17.1%	17.0%	15.7%	1.09×	5.87
Empoli by 2	12.6%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.51
Pisa by 2	8.9%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.90
Empoli by 3+	7.6%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.90
Pisa by 3+	4.2%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.80