Empoli v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
3 – 16
On target
1 – 7
Shots in box
1 – 10
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.08 – -2.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Empoli win
19.4%
Draw
28.3%
Roma win
52.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 11.3 xG
conceded 14
from 10.5 xG
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.99–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Empoli 0.08 xGRoma 3.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Empoli attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Anass Salah-Eddine |
| 6' |
 Empoli |
Mattia De Sciglio | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Empoli |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 21' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eldor Shomurodov |
| 35' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 38' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 42' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Leandro Paredes |
| 44' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 46' |
Roma |
Leandro Paredes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eldor Shomurodov |
| 48' |
Roma |
Victor Nelsson | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Leandro Paredes |
| 52' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Paredes |
| 60' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 64' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eldor Shomurodov |
| 77' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 82' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Roma |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tommaso Baldanzi |
| 93' |
Empoli |
Christian Kouamé | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Junior Sambia |
Players
Empoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Grassi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Marco Silvestri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Marianucci DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liberato Cacace AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emmanuel Gyasi DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Liam Henderson MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Colombo AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mattia De Sciglio DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christian Kouamé Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Junior Sambia Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Viktor Kovalenko Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismael Konaté Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Campaniello Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.45 | 2.67 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 2.23 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.52 |
| Mats Hummels DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.55 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 1.13 | 1.65 |
| Eldor Shomurodov FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.89 | 0.52 | 1.43 |
| Leandro Paredes MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 1.61 |
| Anass Salah-Eddine DML | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.60 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.73 |
| Devyne Rensch Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Angelino Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Cristante Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.40 |