Empoli v Sampdoria — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Empoli

20:00 UTC

Sampdoria

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 1,329h before kick-off

Empoli win

39.9%

model 39.3%

Draw

31.1%

model 31.8%

Sampdoria win

28.9%

model 28.9%

403129

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.8%
0-0 12.3%
1-0 11.6%
0-1 9.3%
2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	38.5%	Under 2.5	61.5%
BTTS yes	46.3%	BTTS no	53.7%
Empoli 1+	70.4%	Empoli 2+	34.4%
Sampdoria 1+	63.5%	Sampdoria 2+	26.8%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

46/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

53.4% fair odds 1.87

moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sampdoria (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Empoli.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Empoli have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.1% for the draw and 28.9% for Sampdoria. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.22 for Empoli and 1.01 for Sampdoria.

Why Empoli

Nothing in the data singles out Empoli.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.1%. A combined 2.23 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.22 to 1.01. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Sampdoria can win

Nothing in the data singles out Sampdoria.

Key players

Empoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.29), Lorenzo Colombo (0.25), Jacopo Fazzini (0.19).

Availability

1 of Empoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Sampdoria, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Empoli: 40% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Sampdoria: 57% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Empoli are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.8%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDDLDLLWWL last 10 scored 10 from 11.3 xG conceded 14 from 10.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	393229	1.22–1.01	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	423326	1.20–0.88	1-1 15%	34%	42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to win	41.7%	42.9%	42.7%	1.00×	2.33
Draw	32.8%	30.4%	31.9%	0.95×	3.29
Sampdoria to win	25.5%	27.9%	25.5%	1.09×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli & not both score	27.4%	25.2%	23.9%	1.05×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Sampdoria & not both score	16.1%	18.0%	13.3%	1.35×	5.57
Empoli & both teams score	14.3%	13.3%	18.9%	0.70×	7.53
Draw & not both score	14.1%	13.3%	9.1%	1.46×	7.54
Sampdoria & both teams score	9.4%	8.3%	12.3%	0.68×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli & under 3.5	33.9%	30.8%	31.9%	0.96×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	28.9%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	28.9%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Empoli & over 1.5	28.3%	26.1%	31.8%	0.82×	3.84
Empoli & under 2.5	22.4%	21.6%	18.4%	1.17×	4.63
Sampdoria & under 3.5	21.6%	21.6%	19.9%	1.08×	4.63
Empoli & over 2.5	19.3%	18.0%	24.4%	0.74×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.56
Sampdoria & over 1.5	16.0%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Empoli & under 1.5	13.5%	12.8%	11.1%	1.16×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	14.1%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Sampdoria & under 2.5	14.3%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Sampdoria & over 2.5	11.1%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Sampdoria & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Empoli & over 3.5	7.8%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	3.9%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.81
Sampdoria & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	5.7%	0.84×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (1UP)	54.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sampdoria (1UP)	40.1%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2UP)	41.7%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Sampdoria (2UP)	25.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.98

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	42.7%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Empoli to win 2nd half	33.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Sampdoria to win 2nd half	23.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.1%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Sampdoria under 0.5 in 2nd half	59.0%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Sampdoria over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Sampdoria over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.9%	8.1%	—	—	12.41

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.1%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Empoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.6%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Empoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.4%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Empoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.9%	11.7%	—	—	8.56

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (+2.5)	93.7%	92.1%	93.3%	0.99×	1.09
Sampdoria (+1.5)	81.1%	82.5%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Empoli (+0.5)	74.5%	73.7%	74.5%	0.99×	1.36
Sampdoria (+0.5)	58.3%	57.0%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75
Empoli (-0.5)	41.7%	43.0%	42.7%	1.01×	2.33
Sampdoria (-0.5)	25.5%	26.3%	25.5%	1.03×	3.80
Empoli (-1.5)	18.9%	17.5%	19.7%	0.89×	5.73
Empoli (-2.5)	6.3%	7.9%	6.7%	1.17×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria to concede	69.7%	72.4%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Sampdoria clean sheet	30.3%	27.6%	22.3%	1.24×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria clean sheet in 1st half	59.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Sampdoria to concede in 1st half	40.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria clean sheet in 2nd half	50.6%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Sampdoria to concede in 2nd half	49.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria over 2.5 corners	80.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Sampdoria under 6.5 corners	76.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Sampdoria over 3.5 corners	65.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sampdoria under 5.5 corners	64.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sampdoria under 4.5 corners	50.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Sampdoria over 4.5 corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sampdoria over 5.5 corners	35.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sampdoria under 3.5 corners	34.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Sampdoria over 6.5 corners	23.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Sampdoria under 2.5 corners	19.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Sampdoria under 2.5 goals	94.1%	92.4%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Sampdoria under 1.5 goals	78.0%	76.3%	69.4%	1.10×	1.31
Sampdoria over 0.5 goals	58.5%	59.4%	67.1%	0.89×	1.68
Sampdoria under 0.5 goals	41.5%	40.6%	32.9%	1.23×	2.47
Sampdoria over 1.5 goals	22.0%	23.7%	30.6%	0.78×	4.21
Sampdoria over 2.5 goals	5.9%	7.6%	9.2%	0.83×	13.08
Sampdoria over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	40.00

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria under 1.5 in 1st half	95.1%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Sampdoria under 0.5 in 1st half	70.4%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Sampdoria over 0.5 in 1st half	29.6%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Sampdoria over 1.5 in 1st half	4.9%	4.1%	—	—	24.66

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria scores equally in both	49.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Sampdoria scores more in 2nd half	31.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Sampdoria scores more in 1st half	19.1%	18.2%	—	—	5.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (away no bet)	56.0%	57.4%	57.3%	1.00×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.0%	42.6%	42.7%	1.00×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria even goals	58.6%	56.9%	55.4%	1.03×	1.76
Sampdoria odd goals	41.4%	43.1%	44.6%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.7%	92.3%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	—	—	12.93

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	51.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Not both halves under 1.5	49.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	42.2%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Empoli to score 2+ in a row	28.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Sampdoria to score 2+ in a row	16.9%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	12.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Empoli to score 3+ in a row	8.5%	5.6%	—	—	17.99
Sampdoria to score 3+ in a row	3.7%	2.6%	—	—	38.58

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria corners (+3.5)	83.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Empoli corners (+3.5)	82.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sampdoria corners (+2.5)	76.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Empoli corners (+2.5)	74.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Sampdoria corners (+1.5)	67.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Empoli corners (+1.5)	65.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Sampdoria corners (-1.5)	34.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Empoli corners (-1.5)	32.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Sampdoria corners (-2.5)	25.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Empoli corners (-2.5)	23.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Sampdoria corners (-3.5)	17.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Empoli corners (-3.5)	16.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	63.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 8.5 corners	42.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	36.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	27.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.8%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
0-0	14.1%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.71
1-0	13.5%	11.5%	11.1%	1.04×	8.71
0-1	9.5%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
1-2	5.8%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.29
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.32
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
2-2	3.5%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.30
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	3.6%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	1.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2nd half DNB)	58.5%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Sampdoria (2nd half DNB)	41.5%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli leading at HT (DNB)	61.5%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Sampdoria leading at HT (DNB)	38.5%	34.7%	—	—	2.88

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw (1X)	74.5%	72.1%	74.5%	0.97×	1.39
Empoli or Sampdoria (12)	67.2%	69.6%	68.1%	1.02×	1.44
Sampdoria or draw (X2)	58.3%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw at HT	81.0%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Sampdoria or draw at HT	69.6%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Empoli or Sampdoria at HT	49.4%	52.9%	—	—	1.89

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw (1UP)	74.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Sampdoria or draw (1UP)	58.3%	63.0%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw in 2nd half	76.2%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Sampdoria or draw in 2nd half	66.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Empoli or Sampdoria in 2nd half	57.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	70.1%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Neither half drawn	29.9%	29.7%	—	—	3.37

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (DNB)	62.1%	62.7%	62.6%	1.00×	1.60
Sampdoria (DNB)	37.9%	37.3%	37.4%	1.00×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score first	49.5%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Sampdoria to score first	36.4%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	14.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.65

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	57.7%	55.0%	46.1%	1.19×	1.82
Both teams to score	42.3%	45.0%	53.9%	0.83×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	50.9%	47.2%	37.9%	1.25×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	27.6%	33.3%	39.4%	0.85×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	14.8%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	6.8%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	92.6%	89.0%	86.1%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	7.4%	11.0%	13.9%	0.79×	9.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.2%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.8%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	69.5%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Both score 2nd half only	18.4%	15.1%	—	—	6.63
Both score 1st half only	9.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
Both score in both halves	2.4%	4.8%	—	—	20.62

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.8%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.2%	14.4%	—	—	6.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.3%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	37.1%	35.1%	26.8%	1.31×	2.85
4-6 goals	15.1%	20.2%	23.5%	0.86×	4.96
7+ goals	0.5%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.48

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria to score exactly 0	41.5%	37.3%	32.9%	1.13×	2.68
Sampdoria to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Sampdoria to score exactly 2	16.0%	19.6%	21.5%	0.91×	5.12
Sampdoria to score 3+	5.9%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.6%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
Empoli to score exactly 0	30.3%	32.6%	22.3%	1.46×	3.07
Empoli to score exactly 2	21.6%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Empoli to score 3+	11.9%	14.3%	16.2%	0.88×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	50.6%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Empoli leading at HT	30.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Sampdoria leading at HT	19.0%	16.1%	—	—	6.20

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli -1: 2	58.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Empoli -1: X	22.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Empoli -1: 1	18.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (0:1)	58.3%	55.8%	57.3%	0.97×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.9%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13
Empoli (0:1)	18.9%	17.8%	19.7%	0.91×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (0:2)	81.1%	82.9%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.6%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.10
Empoli (0:2)	6.3%	7.7%	6.7%	1.14×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (0:3)	93.7%	92.7%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	42.02
Empoli (0:3)	1.7%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (0:4)	98.3%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	82.02
Empoli (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	82.13

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (1:0)	74.5%	72.5%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.4%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85
Sampdoria (1:0)	9.1%	6.9%	10.0%	0.69×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2:0)	90.9%	94.0%	90.0%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.8%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.68
Sampdoria (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.7%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Halves equal	31.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
1st half highest scoring	25.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to concede	58.5%	60.7%	67.1%	0.90×	1.65
Empoli clean sheet	41.5%	39.3%	32.9%	1.20×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli clean sheet in 1st half	70.4%	66.5%	—	—	1.51
Empoli to concede in 1st half	29.6%	33.5%	—	—	2.98

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli clean sheet in 2nd half	59.0%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Empoli to concede in 2nd half	41.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli over 2.5 corners	79.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Empoli under 6.5 corners	77.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Empoli under 5.5 corners	65.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Empoli over 3.5 corners	64.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Empoli under 4.5 corners	51.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Empoli over 4.5 corners	48.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Empoli under 3.5 corners	35.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Empoli over 5.5 corners	34.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Empoli over 6.5 corners	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Empoli under 2.5 corners	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 3.5 goals	96.7%	96.4%	95.9%	1.01×	1.04
Empoli under 2.5 goals	88.1%	87.3%	83.8%	1.04×	1.15
Empoli over 0.5 goals	69.7%	68.0%	77.7%	0.87×	1.47
Empoli under 1.5 goals	66.4%	67.9%	58.0%	1.17×	1.47
Empoli over 1.5 goals	33.6%	32.1%	42.0%	0.76×	3.12
Empoli under 0.5 goals	30.3%	32.0%	22.3%	1.44×	3.12
Empoli over 2.5 goals	11.9%	12.7%	16.2%	0.79×	7.85
Empoli over 3.5 goals	3.3%	3.6%	4.1%	0.88×	27.52

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 1st half	90.6%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Empoli under 0.5 in 1st half	59.8%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Empoli over 0.5 in 1st half	40.2%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
Empoli over 1.5 in 1st half	9.4%	5.4%	—	—	18.58

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli scores equally in both	41.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Empoli scores more in 2nd half	34.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Empoli scores more in 1st half	23.8%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	56.3%	56.4%	55.5%	1.02×	1.77
Sampdoria (home no bet)	43.7%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli even goals	54.6%	50.7%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Empoli odd goals	45.4%	49.3%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	42.4%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
HT 1-0	21.4%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	14.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	7.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
HT 2-0	5.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 0-2	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
Any other HT score	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 2-1	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli at HT / Empoli at FT	23.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	23.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Empoli at FT	16.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Sampdoria at HT / Sampdoria at FT	12.9%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Sampdoria at FT	11.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Empoli at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Sampdoria at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Sampdoria at HT / Empoli at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Empoli at HT / Sampdoria at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score last	49.6%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Sampdoria to score last	36.3%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	14.1%	9.8%	—	—	10.24

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	85.9%	90.9%	—	—	1.10
Empoli to lead by 1 at any time	54.9%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Sampdoria to lead by 1 at any time	40.1%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	35.5%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Empoli to lead by 2 at any time	23.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Sampdoria to lead by 2 at any time	12.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.51
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	10.4%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Empoli to lead by 3 at any time	7.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.96
Sampdoria to lead by 3 at any time	3.0%	1.6%	—	—	62.06

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria most corners	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Empoli most corners	43.5%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.9%	83.4%	87.3%	0.96×	1.20
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.7%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
1-3 goals	70.2%	72.3%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
2-6 goals	62.4%	63.3%	72.0%	0.88×	1.58
2-5 goals	61.0%	63.3%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.0%	59.1%	64.4%	0.92×	1.69
1-2 goals	51.5%	53.2%	43.5%	1.22×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.3%	48.5%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	33.8%	35.2%	46.3%	0.76×	2.84
3-5 goals	32.4%	35.2%	44.0%	0.80×	2.84
3-4 goals	28.4%	30.2%	38.7%	0.78×	3.31
4-6 goals	15.1%	18.8%	23.5%	0.80×	5.31
4-5 goals	13.7%	14.8%	21.2%	0.70×	6.75
5-6 goals	5.4%	8.9%	7.7%	1.15×	11.28
7+ goals	0.5%	2.5%	1.4%	1.86×	39.23

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli never behind	45.7%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Sampdoria never behind	31.0%	36.1%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.1%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.9%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.4%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	40.6%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.5%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.5%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.1%	95.4%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	85.9%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	84.4%	82.3%	75.2%	1.09×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	65.7%	66.3%	52.4%	1.26×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	62.9%	61.7%	73.2%	0.84×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	37.1%	38.3%	26.8%	1.43×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	34.3%	33.7%	47.6%	0.71×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	15.6%	17.7%	24.8%	0.71×	5.66
Under 0.5 goals	14.1%	12.4%	9.1%	1.37×	8.05
Over 4.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	9.0%	0.86×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	1.9%	4.6%	3.7%	1.22×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.4%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.0%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	93.4%	92.4%	89.3%	1.03×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	80.8%	81.1%	67.9%	1.19×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	51.9%	51.9%	36.0%	1.44×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	48.1%	48.1%	64.0%	0.75×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	19.2%	18.9%	32.1%	0.59×	5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	6.6%	7.6%	10.7%	0.71×	13.18
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.0%	2.8%	3.9%	0.71×	35.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.6%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.65

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.3%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	78.2%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	57.6%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	42.4%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	21.8%	21.4%	—	—	4.66
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.7%	7.2%	—	—	13.85

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.8%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	69.6%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.4%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.6%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	30.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.2%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria not to score in both halves	87.9%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Empoli not to score in both halves	80.2%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Empoli to score in both halves	19.8%	15.9%	—	—	6.29
Sampdoria to score in both halves	12.2%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	42.3%	46.6%	53.9%	0.86×	2.15
Only Empoli scores	27.4%	26.0%	23.9%	1.09×	3.84
Only Sampdoria scores	16.1%	16.0%	13.3%	1.20×	6.24
Neither team scores	14.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.6%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	23.0%	22.6%	17.8%	1.27×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	18.7%	17.5%	22.9%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	14.1%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	9.7%	7.6%	15.9%	0.48×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	4.0%	4.5%	5.4%	0.84×	22.36
6 or more goals	1.9%	4.5%	3.7%	1.20×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	42.4%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	16.0%	15.6%	—	—	6.43
3+ goals in 1st half	5.7%	7.2%	—	—	13.85

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.0%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
2+ goals in 2nd half	34.6%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	30.4%	33.7%	—	—	2.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria not to win both halves	95.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Empoli not to win both halves	89.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Empoli to win both halves	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.36
Sampdoria to win both halves	4.7%	2.9%	—	—	35.09

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria to win neither half	61.9%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Empoli to win either half	53.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Empoli to win neither half	46.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Sampdoria to win either half	38.1%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria not to win to nil	83.9%	83.1%	86.7%	0.96×	1.20
Empoli not to win to nil	72.6%	75.3%	76.1%	0.99×	1.33
Empoli to win to nil	27.4%	24.7%	23.9%	1.03×	4.06
Sampdoria to win to nil	16.1%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	32.8%	27.7%	31.9%	0.87×	3.61
Empoli by 1	22.9%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Sampdoria by 1	16.4%	17.0%	15.7%	1.09×	5.87
Empoli by 2	12.6%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.51
Sampdoria by 2	6.8%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.91
Empoli by 3+	6.3%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.91
Sampdoria by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.86