Empoli v Sudtirol — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 December 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Empoli

20:00 UTC

Sudtirol

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 1,041h before kick-off

Empoli win

43.1%

model 40.7%

Draw

29.5%

model 31.6%

Sudtirol win

27.4%

model 27.7%

432927

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.7%
0-0 12.3%
1-0 11.8%
0-1 9.0%
2-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	38.6%	Under 2.5	61.4%
BTTS yes	46.2%	BTTS no	53.8%
Empoli 1+	71.3%	Empoli 2+	35.5%
Sudtirol 1+	62.7%	Sudtirol 2+	25.9%

Expected goals 1.25 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

47/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

53.4% fair odds 1.87

moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sudtirol not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Empoli.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Empoli have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for the draw and 27.4% for Sudtirol. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for Empoli and 0.99 for Sudtirol.

Why Empoli

Nothing in the data singles out Empoli.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.5%. A combined 2.23 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Sudtirol can win

Sudtirol carry the stronger rating, 1414 Elo against 1384.

Key players

Empoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.29), Lorenzo Colombo (0.25), Jacopo Fazzini (0.19).

Availability

1 of Empoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Sudtirol, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Empoli: 40% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Sudtirol: 47% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Empoli are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.7%. Confidence 47/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDDLDLLWWL last 10 scored 10 from 11.3 xG conceded 14 from 10.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	413228	1.25–0.99	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	423226	1.23–0.93	1-1 15%	37%	44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to win	41.6%	42.9%	42.7%	1.00×	2.33
Draw	32.1%	30.4%	31.9%	0.95×	3.29
Sudtirol to win	26.3%	27.9%	25.5%	1.09×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli & not both score	26.4%	25.2%	23.9%	1.05×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Sudtirol & not both score	16.1%	18.0%	13.3%	1.35×	5.57
Empoli & both teams score	15.2%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.57
Draw & not both score	13.1%	13.3%	9.1%	1.46×	7.54
Sudtirol & both teams score	10.2%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli & under 3.5	33.1%	30.8%	31.9%	0.96×	3.25
Empoli & over 1.5	29.0%	26.1%	31.8%	0.82×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	27.8%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	27.8%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Empoli & under 2.5	21.4%	21.6%	18.4%	1.17×	4.63
Sudtirol & under 3.5	21.8%	21.6%	19.9%	1.08×	4.63
Empoli & over 2.5	20.2%	21.6%	24.4%	0.89×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.55
Sudtirol & over 1.5	17.2%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Sudtirol & under 2.5	14.1%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Empoli & under 1.5	12.6%	12.8%	11.1%	1.16×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	13.1%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Sudtirol & over 2.5	12.2%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Sudtirol & under 1.5	9.1%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Empoli & over 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Sudtirol & over 3.5	4.5%	4.8%	5.7%	0.84×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	4.3%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	4.3%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (1UP)	55.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Sudtirol (1UP)	41.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2UP)	41.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Sudtirol (2UP)	26.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.98

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.7%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Empoli to win 2nd half	33.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Sudtirol to win 2nd half	24.7%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.2%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Sudtirol under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.2%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Sudtirol over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.8%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Sudtirol over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.8%	12.8%	—	—	7.83

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.3%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Empoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Empoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Empoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.73

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (+2.5)	93.5%	92.1%	93.3%	0.99×	1.09
Sudtirol (+1.5)	80.9%	82.6%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Empoli (+0.5)	73.7%	73.7%	74.5%	0.99×	1.36
Sudtirol (+0.5)	58.4%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75
Empoli (-0.5)	41.6%	42.9%	42.7%	1.01×	2.33
Sudtirol (-0.5)	26.3%	26.3%	25.5%	1.03×	3.80
Empoli (-1.5)	19.1%	17.4%	19.7%	0.89×	5.73
Empoli (-2.5)	6.5%	7.9%	6.7%	1.17×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to concede	70.9%	76.6%	77.7%	0.99×	1.31
Sudtirol clean sheet	29.1%	23.4%	22.3%	1.05×	4.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol clean sheet in 1st half	58.8%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Sudtirol to concede in 1st half	41.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to concede in 2nd half	50.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Sudtirol clean sheet in 2nd half	49.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 6.5 corners	85.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sudtirol under 5.5 corners	75.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Sudtirol over 2.5 corners	71.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sudtirol under 4.5 corners	62.5%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Sudtirol over 3.5 corners	54.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Sudtirol under 3.5 corners	46.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sudtirol over 4.5 corners	37.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Sudtirol under 2.5 corners	28.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sudtirol over 5.5 corners	24.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Sudtirol over 6.5 corners	14.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Sudtirol under 2.5 goals	93.2%	92.4%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Sudtirol under 1.5 goals	76.1%	76.2%	69.4%	1.10×	1.31
Sudtirol over 0.5 goals	60.5%	63.2%	67.1%	0.94×	1.58
Sudtirol under 0.5 goals	39.5%	36.8%	32.9%	1.12×	2.72
Sudtirol over 1.5 goals	23.9%	23.8%	30.6%	0.78×	4.21
Sudtirol over 2.5 goals	6.8%	7.6%	9.2%	0.83×	13.08
Sudtirol over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.89

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 1.5 in 1st half	94.6%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Sudtirol under 0.5 in 1st half	68.9%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Sudtirol over 0.5 in 1st half	31.1%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
Sudtirol over 1.5 in 1st half	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.66

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol scores equally in both	48.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Sudtirol scores more in 2nd half	32.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Sudtirol scores more in 1st half	19.6%	18.2%	—	—	5.49

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (away no bet)	56.5%	57.3%	57.3%	1.00×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.5%	42.7%	42.7%	1.00×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol even goals	57.8%	56.9%	55.4%	1.03×	1.76
Sudtirol odd goals	42.2%	43.1%	44.6%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.8%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.2%	8.5%	—	—	11.78

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	51.4%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals	48.6%	49.4%	—	—	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	44.1%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Empoli to score 2+ in a row	29.1%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Sudtirol to score 2+ in a row	18.3%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Empoli to score 3+ in a row	9.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.05
Sudtirol to score 3+ in a row	4.2%	2.6%	—	—	38.44

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli corners (+3.5)	89.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Empoli corners (+2.5)	83.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sudtirol corners (+3.5)	77.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Empoli corners (+1.5)	75.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Sudtirol corners (+2.5)	68.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Sudtirol corners (+1.5)	57.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Empoli corners (-1.5)	42.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Empoli corners (-2.5)	31.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Sudtirol corners (-1.5)	24.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Empoli corners (-3.5)	22.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Sudtirol corners (-2.5)	16.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Sudtirol corners (-3.5)	10.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.6%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	37.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	22.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.7%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
0-0	13.1%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.71
1-0	12.6%	11.5%	11.1%	1.04×	8.71
0-1	9.1%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-0	8.7%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
1-2	6.1%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-2	5.0%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.29
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.32
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
2-2	3.8%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.30
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	3.6%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	1.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2nd half DNB)	57.7%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Sudtirol (2nd half DNB)	42.3%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli leading at HT (DNB)	60.9%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Sudtirol leading at HT (DNB)	39.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw (1X)	73.7%	72.1%	74.5%	0.97×	1.39
Empoli or Sudtirol (12)	67.9%	69.6%	68.1%	1.02×	1.44
Sudtirol or draw (X2)	58.4%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw at HT	80.2%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Sudtirol or draw at HT	69.3%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Empoli or Sudtirol at HT	50.5%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw (1UP)	73.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Sudtirol or draw (1UP)	58.4%	63.1%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli or draw in 2nd half	75.3%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Sudtirol or draw in 2nd half	66.3%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Empoli or Sudtirol in 2nd half	58.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	68.9%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Neither half drawn	31.1%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (DNB)	61.3%	62.6%	62.6%	1.00×	1.60
Sudtirol (DNB)	38.7%	37.4%	37.4%	1.00×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score first	49.6%	46.0%	—	—	2.18
Sudtirol to score first	37.4%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	13.1%	10.0%	—	—	9.99

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.5%	55.0%	46.1%	1.19×	1.82
Both teams to score	44.5%	45.0%	53.9%	0.84×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	48.5%	44.3%	37.9%	1.17×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	29.7%	33.3%	39.4%	0.85×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	14.7%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	7.0%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.7%	89.0%	86.1%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.3%	11.0%	13.9%	0.79×	9.09

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.9%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.1%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.6%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Both score 2nd half only	19.4%	15.0%	—	—	6.66
Both score 1st half only	10.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	2.8%	4.9%	—	—	20.60

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.9%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	13.1%	15.1%	—	—	6.63

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	56.7%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
A goal in each half	43.3%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.8%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	34.8%	30.8%	26.8%	1.15×	3.25
4-6 goals	16.7%	20.2%	23.5%	0.86×	4.95
7+ goals	0.7%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to score exactly 0	39.5%	35.9%	32.9%	1.09×	2.78
Sudtirol to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Sudtirol to score exactly 2	17.1%	19.5%	21.5%	0.91×	5.12
Sudtirol to score 3+	6.8%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.5%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
Empoli to score exactly 0	29.1%	26.6%	22.3%	1.19×	3.77
Empoli to score exactly 2	22.2%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Empoli to score 3+	12.8%	14.3%	16.2%	0.88×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.5%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Empoli leading at HT	30.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Sudtirol leading at HT	19.8%	16.1%	—	—	6.22

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli -1: 2	58.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Empoli -1: X	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Empoli -1: 1	19.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:1)	58.4%	55.9%	57.3%	0.98×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.5%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13
Empoli (0:1)	19.1%	17.8%	19.7%	0.91×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:2)	80.9%	82.9%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.6%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.10
Empoli (0:2)	6.5%	7.7%	6.7%	1.14×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:3)	93.5%	92.7%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.7%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	41.93
Empoli (0:3)	1.8%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.06

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:4)	98.2%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.75
Empoli (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	81.86

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (1:0)	73.7%	72.5%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.6%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85
Sudtirol (1:0)	9.7%	6.9%	10.0%	0.69×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (2:0)	90.3%	94.0%	90.0%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	7.2%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.66
Sudtirol (2:0)	2.6%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.3%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Halves equal	31.1%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
1st half highest scoring	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to concede	60.5%	63.6%	67.1%	0.95×	1.57
Empoli clean sheet	39.5%	36.4%	32.9%	1.11×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli clean sheet in 1st half	68.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Empoli to concede in 1st half	31.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli clean sheet in 2nd half	57.2%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Empoli to concede in 2nd half	42.8%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli over 2.5 corners	81.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Empoli under 6.5 corners	74.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Empoli over 3.5 corners	66.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Empoli under 5.5 corners	63.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Empoli over 4.5 corners	51.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Empoli under 4.5 corners	48.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Empoli over 5.5 corners	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Empoli under 3.5 corners	33.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Empoli over 6.5 corners	25.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Empoli under 2.5 corners	18.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 3.5 goals	96.3%	96.4%	95.9%	1.01×	1.04
Empoli under 2.5 goals	87.2%	87.3%	83.8%	1.04×	1.15
Empoli over 0.5 goals	70.9%	74.2%	77.7%	0.95×	1.35
Empoli under 1.5 goals	65.1%	67.9%	58.0%	1.17×	1.47
Empoli over 1.5 goals	34.9%	32.1%	42.0%	0.76×	3.12
Empoli under 0.5 goals	29.1%	25.8%	22.3%	1.16×	3.88
Empoli over 2.5 goals	12.8%	12.7%	16.2%	0.79×	7.85
Empoli over 3.5 goals	3.7%	3.6%	4.1%	0.88×	27.52

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 1st half	90.1%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Empoli under 0.5 in 1st half	58.8%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Empoli over 0.5 in 1st half	41.2%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Empoli over 1.5 in 1st half	9.9%	5.4%	—	—	18.41

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli scores equally in both	41.1%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
Empoli scores more in 2nd half	34.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Empoli scores more in 1st half	24.1%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.0%	51.5%	55.5%	0.93×	1.94
Sudtirol (home no bet)	45.0%	48.5%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli even goals	54.2%	50.8%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Empoli odd goals	45.8%	49.2%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.8%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
HT 1-0	21.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
HT 1-1	8.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
HT 2-0	5.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 0-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
Any other HT score	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.26
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli at HT / Empoli at FT	24.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	22.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Empoli at FT	15.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Sudtirol at HT / Sudtirol at FT	13.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Sudtirol at FT	11.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Empoli at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Sudtirol at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Sudtirol at HT / Empoli at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.96
Empoli at HT / Sudtirol at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.97

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score last	49.7%	46.4%	—	—	2.15
Sudtirol to score last	37.3%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	13.1%	9.4%	—	—	10.62

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.9%	91.2%	—	—	1.10
Empoli to lead by 1 at any time	55.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Sudtirol to lead by 1 at any time	41.5%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	37.1%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Empoli to lead by 2 at any time	23.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Sudtirol to lead by 2 at any time	13.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.2%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Empoli to lead by 3 at any time	7.8%	6.7%	—	—	15.02
Sudtirol to lead by 3 at any time	3.4%	1.6%	—	—	61.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli most corners	53.7%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Sudtirol most corners	34.9%	34.4%	—	—	2.90
Corners level	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.6%	83.4%	87.3%	0.96×	1.20
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	82.1%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	69.6%	68.8%	66.3%	1.04×	1.45
2-6 goals	64.5%	63.3%	72.0%	0.88×	1.58
2-5 goals	62.9%	63.3%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.3%	59.1%	64.4%	0.92×	1.69
1-2 goals	50.2%	53.1%	43.5%	1.22×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.8%	48.4%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	36.1%	39.2%	46.3%	0.85×	2.55
3-5 goals	34.4%	35.2%	44.0%	0.80×	2.84
3-4 goals	29.9%	30.2%	38.7%	0.78×	3.31
4-6 goals	16.7%	18.8%	23.5%	0.80×	5.31
4-5 goals	15.0%	18.8%	21.2%	0.89×	5.32
5-6 goals	6.2%	8.9%	7.7%	1.15×	11.27
7+ goals	0.7%	2.5%	1.4%	1.86×	39.24

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli never behind	45.4%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Sudtirol never behind	31.6%	36.3%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.2%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.8%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.1%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.9%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.7%	95.4%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	86.9%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	82.7%	82.3%	75.2%	1.09×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	65.2%	66.3%	73.2%	0.91×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	63.3%	61.7%	52.4%	1.18×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	36.7%	38.3%	47.6%	0.80×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	34.8%	33.7%	26.8%	1.26×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	17.3%	17.7%	24.8%	0.71×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	13.1%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	9.0%	0.86×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	2.3%	4.6%	3.7%	1.23×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.3%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.6%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.3%	92.4%	89.3%	1.03×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	78.5%	75.9%	67.9%	1.12×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	51.3%	51.9%	64.0%	0.81×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	48.7%	48.1%	36.0%	1.34×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	21.5%	24.1%	32.1%	0.75×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.7%	7.6%	10.7%	0.71×	13.19
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.4%	2.8%	3.9%	0.71×	35.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.7%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.66

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.7%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	76.9%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.2%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.8%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half	23.1%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.6%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.1%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.5%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.5%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.9%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.4%	14.7%	—	—	6.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to score in both halves	86.7%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Empoli not to score in both halves	79.2%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Empoli to score in both halves	20.8%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Sudtirol to score in both halves	13.3%	14.4%	—	—	6.92

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.5%	46.6%	53.9%	0.86×	2.15
Only Empoli scores	26.4%	26.1%	23.9%	1.09×	3.84
Only Sudtirol scores	16.1%	16.0%	13.3%	1.20×	6.24
Neither team scores	13.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.5%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	21.8%	22.6%	17.8%	1.27×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.4%	17.5%	22.9%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	13.1%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	10.5%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.26
Exactly 5 goals	4.5%	4.5%	5.4%	0.84×	22.33
6 or more goals	2.3%	4.5%	3.7%	1.20×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	40.8%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
1 goal in 1st half	36.1%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	16.8%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
3+ goals in 1st half	6.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.06

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	36.5%	39.6%	—	—	2.53
1 goal in 2nd half	34.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
No goals in 2nd half	28.9%	29.1%	—	—	3.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to win both halves	95.0%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Empoli not to win both halves	89.4%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Empoli to win both halves	10.6%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Sudtirol to win both halves	5.0%	5.8%	—	—	17.29

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to win neither half	60.6%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Empoli to win either half	53.8%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Empoli to win neither half	46.2%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Sudtirol to win either half	39.4%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to win to nil	83.9%	83.1%	86.7%	0.96×	1.20
Empoli not to win to nil	73.6%	75.3%	76.1%	0.99×	1.33
Empoli to win to nil	26.4%	24.7%	23.9%	1.03×	4.05
Sudtirol to win to nil	16.1%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	32.1%	27.7%	31.9%	0.87×	3.61
Empoli by 1	22.5%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Sudtirol by 1	16.6%	17.0%	15.7%	1.09×	5.87
Empoli by 2	12.6%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.51
Sudtirol by 2	7.2%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.91
Empoli by 3+	6.5%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.91
Sudtirol by 3+	2.6%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.89