Energie Cottbus v Holstein Kiel — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 December 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627
GER-2. Bundesliga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 9.6%
- 2-1 8.2%
- 1-2 8.0%
- 2-2 7.1%
- 1-0 5.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 67.9% | Under 2.5 | 32.1% |
| BTTS yes | 68.6% | BTTS no | 31.4% |
| Energie Cottbus 1+ | 83.1% | Energie Cottbus 2+ | 53.0% |
| Holstein Kiel 1+ | 82.2% | Holstein Kiel 2+ | 51.5% |
Expected goals 1.78 – 1.73. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Energie Cottbus carry the stronger rating, 1476 Elo against 1426.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 35/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
- Energie Cottbus have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Energie Cottbus have an estimated 39.5% win probability, against 37.5% for Holstein Kiel and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.77 for Energie Cottbus and 1.73 for Holstein Kiel.
Why Energie Cottbus
Energie Cottbus carry the stronger rating, 1476 Elo against 1426.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.77 to 1.73. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Holstein Kiel can win
Nothing in the data singles out Holstein Kiel.
Key players
Holstein Kiel's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Steven Skrzybski (0.28), Phil Harres (0.26), Shuto Machino (0.22).
Availability
No lineup on record for Energie Cottbus, so availability is unknown. 1 of Holstein Kiel's top three contributors did not start their last match. Holstein Kiel had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.05 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Holstein Kiel: Carl Johansson (suspended).
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Energie Cottbus: 53% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 19.7 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Holstein Kiel: 59% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.31 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Energie Cottbus are the model's most likely outcome at 39.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.6%. Confidence 18/100, data quality 35/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Holstein Kiel have scored 14 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.78–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.87–1.84 | 1-1 9% | 72% | 71% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.