Espanyol v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 August 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 15
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.23 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.58 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
24.6%
Draw
23.1%
Atletico Madrid win
52.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.92–1.61 | 0-1 13% | 46% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 1.42 xGAtletico Madrid 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 13' |
Atletico Madrid |
David Hancko | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Álex Baena |
| 14' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 20' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Baena |
| 22' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Baena |
| 28' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 36' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Atletico Madrid |
Thiago Almada | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 43' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 44' |
Atletico Madrid |
Johnny Cardoso | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 48' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kike García |
| 50' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 56' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Álex Baena |
| 63' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 70' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 72' |
Espanyol |
Miguel Ángel Rubio | 0.56 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Edu Expósito |
| 74' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 80' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.61 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 83' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Goal | Omar El Hilali |
| 91' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 95' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | David Hancko |
Players
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Javi Puado AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Edu Expósito DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 1.25 | 0.14 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ramón Terrats AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jofre Carreras AMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike García Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Tyrhys Dolan Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Ángel Rubio Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| José Salinas Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giuliano Simeone AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.98 |
| David Hancko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1.03 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.04 |
| Matteo Ruggeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Julián Álvarez FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.07 | 0.89 |
| Thiago Almada AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.74 |
| Álex Baena AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| Conor Gallagher DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Johnny Cardoso DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Koke Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.76 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Alexander Sørloth Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |