Espanyol v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 15
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
12 – 11
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.61 – 1.68
Goals − xG
-1.84 – -1.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
21.9%
Draw
20.3%
Barcelona win
57.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.22–2.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.27–2.20 | 1-2 10% | 67% | 64% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 1.84 xGBarcelona 3.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 7' |
Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pere Milla |
| 8' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 19' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 27' |
 Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 36' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.26 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 38' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 41' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 45' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 47' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Barcelona |
Frenkie de Jong | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 53' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Fermín López |
| 54' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marko Dmitrovic |
| 57' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pere Milla |
| 61' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 68' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.45 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Cabrera |
| 69' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Fermín López |
| 70' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.67 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 75' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 77' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 85' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fermín López |
| 88' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 88' |
Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fermín López |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Garcia DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Frenkie de Jong DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.64 | 1.24 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Álex Balde DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ferrán Torres FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Raphinha AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| Fermín López Sub | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 1.08 | 0.62 |
| Pedri Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.06 | 0.55 |
| Robert Lewandowski Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Dani Olmo Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.42 | 0.81 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.56 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.43 |
| Pere Milla AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.20 | 1.07 |
| Tyrhys Dolan AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Edu Expósito AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.82 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Kike García Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Javi Puado Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |