Espanyol v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 18 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 10
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-0.08 – +1.75
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
50.9%
Draw
25.8%
Elche win
23.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol have scored 12 from 13.4 expected and conceded 13 from 13.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWLLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.4 xG
conceded 13
from 13.9 xG
Elche have scored 12 from 11.3 expected and conceded 18 from 19.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DDLLLDLWDD last 10
scored 12
from 11.3 xG
conceded 18
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.53–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 1.08 xGElche 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
 Elche |
Fernando Niño | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Roy Revivo |
| 28' |
Elche |
Fernando Niño | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Roy Revivo |
| 30' |
Espanyol |
Unai Núñez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 32' |
Espanyol |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Roger Hinojo |
| 32' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Elche |
Victor Chust | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Gonzalo Villar |
| 45' |
Espanyol |
Marcos Fernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 47' |
Espanyol |
Cala | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 49' |
Espanyol |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 51' |
Espanyol |
Javi Hernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Unai Núñez |
| 51' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Zaragoza |
| 52' |
Espanyol |
Cala | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Unai Núñez |
| 53' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.24 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 54' |
Elche |
Lucas Cepeda | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Espanyol |
Cala | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Espanyol |
José Ángel López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cala |
| 60' |
Elche |
Abiel Osorio | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Javier Morcillo |
| 62' |
Espanyol |
Javi Hernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Fernández |
| 64' |
Elche |
Lucas Cepeda | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Espanyol |
Marcos Fernández | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | José Ángel López |
| 69' |
Espanyol |
Javi Hernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Fernández |
| 71' |
Elche |
Victor Chust | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 73' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | José Ángel López |
| 75' |
Espanyol |
Marcos Fernández | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 77' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tete Morente |
| 80' |
Elche |
Abiel Osorio | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | German Valera |
| 86' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 89' |
Elche |
Javier Morcillo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Javi Hernández |
| 93' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Fernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Javi Hernández AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Edu Expósito DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| José Ángel López DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bryan Zaragoza AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Cala AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Roger Hinojo DL | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marcos Fernández Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Quilindschy Hartman Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Tyrhys Dolan Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Clemens Riedel Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| German Valera FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Lucas Cepeda FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Javier Morcillo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 1.11 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roy Revivo DL | 84 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Thomas Lemar MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fernando Niño FW | 68 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Gonzalo Villar MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.36 |
| Rubén Sánchez Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Buba Sangaré DR | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Bigas Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abiel Osorio Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Tete Morente Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Matia Barzic Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Redondo DC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |