Espanyol v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 10
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 1.05
Goals − xG
-0.51 – -0.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
40.1%
Draw
30.5%
Getafe win
29.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.24–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–0.88 | 1-0 15% | 37% | 42% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 1.51 xGGetafe 2.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Espanyol |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 1' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 21' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 34' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 39' |
 Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zaid Romero |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 47' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Luis Milla |
| 49' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 51' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 51' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.86 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Domingos Duarte |
| 56' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 62' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 65' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djené Dakonam |
| 67' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.65 | Open Play | — | Goal | Rubén Sánchez |
| 68' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 69' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 70' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rubén Sánchez |
| 70' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martín Satriano |
| 76' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 77' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rubén Sánchez |
| 80' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 91' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Rubén Sánchez |
| 94' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 98' |
Getafe |
Kiko Femenía | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martín Satriano |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiko Femenía MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.94 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.86 | 0.00 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Martín Satriano ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.39 | 1.00 |
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.60 |
| Luis Vázquez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Diego Rico DL | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastián Boselli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kike García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Edu Expósito MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.81 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clemens Riedel DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Tyrhys Dolan ML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| Ramón Terrats AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Cyril Ngonge MR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Roberto Fernández Sub | 33 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rubén Sánchez Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| Miguel Ángel Rubio Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |