Espanyol v Levante — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 27 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 8
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.63
Goals − xG
-0.85 – -1.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
42.4%
Draw
26.2%
Levante win
31.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol have scored 12 from 13.4 expected and conceded 13 from 13.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWLLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.4 xG
conceded 13
from 13.9 xG
Levante are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 15
from 16.7 xG
conceded 18
from 20.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.35 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 0.85 xGLevante 1.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Levante attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cyril Ngonge |
| 5' |
 Levante |
Víctor García | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paco Cortés |
| 23' |
Espanyol |
Urko Gonzalez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Espanyol |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 39' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 42' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 48' |
Levante |
Paco Cortés | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Levante |
Pablo Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoniu Roca |
| 87' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 88' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.52 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 92' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
Players
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edu Expósito DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kike García FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Pere Milla AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Cyril Ngonge AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Ramón Terrats AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Roberto Fernández Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Tyrhys Dolan Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Pol Lozano Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Víctor García MR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Pablo Martínez MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Carlos Espí FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paco Cortés ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Ugo Raghouber DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kervin Arriaga Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Losada Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Etta Eyong Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Carlos Álvarez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Tai Abed Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |