Espanyol v Levante — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 4
On target
6 – 0
Shots in box
9 – 2
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.60 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.99 – -0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
45.0%
Draw
26.2%
Levante win
28.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLWWDWLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 11
from 16.0 xG
Levante are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WDLWWWLLDW last 10
scored 17
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.44 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 2.01 xGLevante 0.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Levante attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Hernández |
| 2' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.60 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 18' |
 Levante |
Aissa Mandi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nacho Pérez |
| 24' |
Espanyol |
Javi Hernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 25' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 33' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Hernández |
| 36' |
Espanyol |
Cala | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 36' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Javi Hernández |
| 42' |
Espanyol |
Javi Hernández | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roger Hinojo |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cala |
| 48' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Espanyol |
Cala | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Roberto Fernández |
| 58' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nacho Pérez |
| 79' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rafael Bauza |
| 87' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Espanyol |
Marcos Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 89' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Fernández |
| 92' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Fernández FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.13 | 0.20 | 0.75 |
| Edu Expósito DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.86 |
| Clemens Riedel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Roger Hinojo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.74 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Tyrhys Dolan AML | 87 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Javi Hernández AMC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.58 | 0.92 |
| Cala AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.24 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Pol Lozano Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Rafael Bauza Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcos Fernández Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Oriol Rey DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nacho Pérez DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Víctor García AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Romero FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Carlos Álvarez AMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Paco Cortés AML | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Etta Eyong Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Enzo Bardeli Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Santos Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremy Toljan Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kareem Tunde Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |