Espanyol v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 9
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.18 – -0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
41.6%
Draw
25.3%
Real Sociedad win
33.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol have scored 12 from 13.4 expected and conceded 13 from 13.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWLLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.4 xG
conceded 13
from 13.9 xG
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DLLWDWLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.5 xG
conceded 18
from 19.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.42 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 2.18 xGReal Sociedad 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 9' |
Espanyol |
Ramón Terrats | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yangel Herrera |
| 13' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yangel Herrera |
| 15' |
Espanyol |
Antoniu Roca | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 23' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 27' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sergio Gómez |
| 40' |
Real Sociedad |
Job Ochieng | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Beñat Turrientes |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Urko Gonzalez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 59' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 63' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pere Milla |
| 68' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 70' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kike García |
| 93' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Marín |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Sucic MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 1.05 |
| Beñat Turrientes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.69 |
| Carlos Soler FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Yangel Herrera MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.63 |
| Luken Beitia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Unai Marrero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Job Ochieng ML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 71 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Aritz Elustondo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iñaki Rupérez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.76 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Edu Expósito MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| Ángel Fortuño GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Rubén Sánchez DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jofre Carreras MR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.08 | 0.44 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Ramón Terrats FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Antoniu Roca ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.52 | 1.19 |
| Tyrhys Dolan Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kike García Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Lluc Castell Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar El Hilali Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |