Estoril v FC Arouca — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Estoril

0–0

19:15 UTC

FC Arouca

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 7 Sep, 07:51 · 11h before kick-off

Estoril win

42.6%

model 41.5%

Draw

20.7%

model 22.3%

FC Arouca win

36.7%

model 36.2%

432137

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.0%
2-1 8.7%
1-2 8.0%
1-0 7.8%
0-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.6%	Under 2.5	39.4%
BTTS yes	61.9%	BTTS no	38.1%
Estoril 1+	80.4%	Estoril 2+	48.4%
FC Arouca 1+	77.8%	FC Arouca 2+	44.4%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Over 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 51%

61.5% fair odds 1.63

moderate signal · 956 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Estoril (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 86%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Estoril.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Estoril have an estimated 42.6% win probability, against 36.7% for FC Arouca and 20.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.63 for Estoril and 1.50 for FC Arouca.

Why Estoril

Nothing in the data singles out Estoril.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.63 to 1.50. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why FC Arouca can win

FC Arouca carry the stronger rating, 1535 Elo against 1415. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Estoril, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Arouca, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Estoril: 45% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Arouca: 49% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Estoril are the model's most likely outcome at 42.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	412236	1.63–1.51	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	352243	1.41–1.60	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg	462134	1.97–1.66	2-1 9%	70%	69%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	452134	1.97–1.68	2-1 8%	70%	69%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win	41.5%	44.3%	42.2%	1.05×	2.26
FC Arouca to win	36.2%	38.1%	31.4%	1.22×	2.62
Draw	22.3%	21.5%	26.6%	0.81×	4.65

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril & both teams score	23.0%	22.5%	16.2%	1.38×	4.45
FC Arouca & both teams score	20.2%	22.4%	11.7%	1.91×	4.46
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.1%	20.4%	0.89×	5.53
Estoril & not both score	18.5%	18.1%	26.1%	0.69×	5.53
FC Arouca & not both score	15.9%	18.1%	19.8%	0.91×	5.53
Draw & not both score	3.7%	3.5%	6.3%	0.55×	28.85

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril & over 1.5	33.7%	33.8%	31.5%	1.07×	2.96
FC Arouca & over 1.5	29.0%	25.3%	22.4%	1.13×	3.95
Estoril & over 2.5	27.9%	25.3%	24.7%	1.02×	3.95
Estoril & under 3.5	25.4%	25.3%	29.2%	0.87×	3.96
FC Arouca & over 2.5	24.0%	21.7%	17.3%	1.26×	4.60
FC Arouca & under 3.5	22.7%	21.7%	25.5%	0.85×	4.60
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	17.6%	20.4%	0.86×	5.68
Estoril & over 3.5	16.1%	17.6%	13.1%	1.34×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	13.7%	12.7%	17.2%	0.74×	7.90
Draw & under 3.5	13.7%	12.7%	17.2%	0.74×	7.90
Estoril & under 2.5	13.5%	12.7%	17.6%	0.72×	7.91
FC Arouca & over 3.5	13.5%	12.7%	6.0%	2.10×	7.91
FC Arouca & under 2.5	12.2%	12.6%	14.2%	0.89×	7.91
Draw & over 2.5	8.6%	7.3%	9.6%	0.76×	13.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.6%	7.3%	9.6%	0.76×	13.70
Estoril & under 1.5	7.8%	7.3%	10.8%	0.67×	13.71
FC Arouca & under 1.5	7.2%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.71
Draw & under 1.5	3.7%	4.6%	6.3%	0.72×	21.86

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (1UP)	59.4%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
FC Arouca (1UP)	55.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (2UP)	41.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
FC Arouca (2UP)	36.2%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win 2nd half	34.6%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
FC Arouca to win 2nd half	33.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
2nd half drawn	32.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (+2.5)	91.6%	93.0%	89.6%	1.04×	1.08
FC Arouca (+1.5)	79.4%	79.9%	77.7%	1.03×	1.25
Estoril (+0.5)	63.8%	63.5%	68.6%	0.93×	1.57
FC Arouca (+0.5)	58.5%	56.9%	57.8%	0.98×	1.76
Estoril (-0.5)	41.5%	43.1%	42.2%	1.02×	2.32
FC Arouca (-0.5)	36.2%	36.5%	31.4%	1.16×	2.74
Estoril (-1.5)	20.6%	20.1%	22.3%	0.90×	4.99
Estoril (-2.5)	8.4%	7.0%	10.4%	0.68×	14.29

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to concede	80.4%	85.1%	74.0%	1.15×	1.18
FC Arouca clean sheet	19.6%	14.9%	26.0%	0.58×	6.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to concede in 1st half	50.3%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
FC Arouca clean sheet in 1st half	49.7%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 6.5 corners	85.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
FC Arouca under 5.5 corners	76.3%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
FC Arouca over 2.5 corners	70.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Arouca under 4.5 corners	63.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
FC Arouca over 3.5 corners	53.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
FC Arouca under 3.5 corners	46.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
FC Arouca over 4.5 corners	36.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Arouca under 2.5 corners	29.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
FC Arouca over 5.5 corners	23.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
FC Arouca over 6.5 corners	14.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 3.5 goals	93.4%	93.1%	96.1%	0.97×	1.08
FC Arouca under 2.5 goals	80.8%	82.5%	88.9%	0.93×	1.21
FC Arouca over 0.5 goals	77.8%	75.2%	67.7%	1.11×	1.33
FC Arouca under 1.5 goals	55.6%	57.4%	65.4%	0.88×	1.74
FC Arouca over 1.5 goals	44.4%	42.6%	34.6%	1.23×	2.35
FC Arouca under 0.5 goals	22.2%	24.8%	32.3%	0.77×	4.03
FC Arouca over 2.5 goals	19.2%	17.5%	11.1%	1.58×	5.70
FC Arouca over 3.5 goals	6.6%	6.9%	3.9%	1.80×	14.39

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 1.5 in 1st half	87.7%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
FC Arouca under 0.5 in 1st half	54.8%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
FC Arouca over 0.5 in 1st half	45.2%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
FC Arouca over 1.5 in 1st half	12.3%	12.3%	—	—	8.13

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (away no bet)	65.0%	58.3%	61.3%	0.95×	1.72
Draw (away no bet)	35.0%	41.7%	38.7%	1.08×	2.40

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca even goals	52.5%	52.1%	58.6%	0.89×	1.92
FC Arouca odd goals	47.5%	47.9%	41.4%	1.16×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.6%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.4%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.2%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.8%	28.9%	—	—	3.46

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.6%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Estoril to score 2+ in a row	38.0%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
FC Arouca to score 2+ in a row	33.8%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.9%	22.0%	—	—	4.55
Estoril to score 3+ in a row	13.5%	12.3%	—	—	8.13
FC Arouca to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.17

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril corners (+3.5)	90.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Estoril corners (+2.5)	84.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Estoril corners (+1.5)	76.9%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
FC Arouca corners (+3.5)	75.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
FC Arouca corners (+2.5)	66.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
FC Arouca corners (+1.5)	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Estoril corners (-1.5)	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Estoril corners (-2.5)	33.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Estoril corners (-3.5)	24.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
FC Arouca corners (-1.5)	23.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
FC Arouca corners (-2.5)	15.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
FC Arouca corners (-3.5)	9.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.8%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	32.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.2%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.0%	11.6%	11.0%	1.06×	8.62
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.53
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.53
1-0	7.8%	7.4%	10.8%	0.68×	13.54
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.54
2-2	6.5%	7.4%	8.3%	0.88×	13.54
2-0	5.8%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.55
0-2	4.9%	1.8%	5.3%	0.34×	56.79
3-1	4.7%	1.8%	4.8%	0.37×	56.80
0-0	3.7%	1.8%	6.3%	0.28×	56.83
1-3	4.0%	1.8%	1.4%	1.27×	56.82
3-2	3.5%	1.8%	2.3%	0.76×	56.83
Any other score	4.3%	1.8%	2.9%	0.60×	56.81
0-3	2.5%	1.8%	3.9%	0.46×	56.86
2-3	3.3%	1.8%	1.2%	1.42×	56.84
3-0	3.1%	1.8%	4.8%	0.37×	56.84
1-4	1.5%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	56.89
2-4	1.2%	1.8%	0.6%	2.84×	56.90
3-3	1.8%	1.8%	1.2%	1.42×	56.88
4-0	1.3%	1.8%	2.8%	0.63×	56.90
4-1	1.9%	1.8%	1.4%	1.26×	56.88
4-2	1.4%	1.8%	0.6%	2.84×	56.89
0-4	0.9%	1.8%	1.2%	1.42×	56.91
3-4	0.7%	1.8%	0.2%	11.37×	56.92
4-3	0.7%	1.8%	0.3%	5.68×	56.91
4-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	5.68×	56.93

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril leading at HT (DNB)	55.0%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
FC Arouca leading at HT (DNB)	45.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or FC Arouca (12)	77.7%	78.5%	73.4%	1.07×	1.27
Estoril or draw (1X)	63.8%	61.9%	68.6%	0.90×	1.62
FC Arouca or draw (X2)	58.5%	55.7%	57.8%	0.96×	1.80

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or draw at HT	72.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
FC Arouca or draw at HT	66.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Estoril or FC Arouca at HT	60.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or draw (1UP)	63.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
FC Arouca or draw (1UP)	58.5%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or FC Arouca in 2nd half	67.9%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Estoril or draw in 2nd half	66.7%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
FC Arouca or draw in 2nd half	65.4%	66.2%	—	—	1.51

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	40.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (DNB)	53.4%	54.0%	57.4%	0.94×	1.85
FC Arouca (DNB)	46.6%	46.0%	42.6%	1.08×	2.18

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score first	50.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
FC Arouca to score first	46.3%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
No goal scored	3.7%	3.9%	—	—	25.88

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.9%	56.7%	48.1%	1.18×	1.76
Not both teams to score	38.1%	43.3%	51.9%	0.83×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.8%	46.5%	37.2%	1.25×	2.15
Not both score & under 2.5	29.4%	31.6%	37.9%	0.83×	3.17
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	11.8%	11.0%	1.07×	8.49
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.5%	14.2%	0.60×	11.74

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.5%	82.5%	85.9%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	21.5%	17.5%	14.1%	1.24×	5.72

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.3%	65.2%	—	—	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.7%	34.8%	—	—	2.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.8%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Both score 2nd half only	27.5%	24.6%	—	—	4.07
Both score 1st half only	14.5%	11.5%	—	—	8.70
Both score in both halves	8.2%	6.5%	—	—	15.39

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.3%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	22.7%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.8%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
A half without a goal	39.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.1%	43.5%	45.8%	0.95×	2.30
4-6 goals	34.2%	31.3%	27.7%	1.13×	3.19
0-1 goals	18.7%	21.0%	26.0%	0.81×	4.76
7+ goals	4.1%	1.9%	0.9%	2.10×	51.38

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to score exactly 1	33.4%	33.5%	33.2%	1.01×	2.99
FC Arouca to score exactly 2	25.1%	26.6%	23.6%	1.12×	3.76
FC Arouca to score exactly 0	22.2%	24.1%	32.3%	0.75×	4.15
FC Arouca to score 3+	19.2%	18.1%	11.1%	1.63×	5.52

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score exactly 1	32.0%	30.8%	31.5%	0.98×	3.25
Estoril to score exactly 2	26.0%	27.5%	23.6%	1.16×	3.64
Estoril to score 3+	22.4%	22.8%	19.2%	1.19×	4.38
Estoril to score exactly 0	19.6%	18.2%	26.0%	0.70×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Estoril leading at HT	33.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
FC Arouca leading at HT	27.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril -1: 2	58.5%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Estoril -1: X	20.8%	23.7%	—	—	4.22
Estoril -1: 1	20.6%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:1)	58.5%	55.7%	57.8%	0.96×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	20.8%	24.0%	20.1%	1.20×	4.16
Estoril (0:1)	20.6%	24.0%	22.3%	1.08×	4.17

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:2)	79.4%	78.8%	77.7%	1.01×	1.27
Draw (0:2)	12.2%	11.7%	12.1%	0.97×	8.56
Estoril (0:2)	8.4%	6.8%	10.4%	0.66×	14.71

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:3)	91.6%	93.2%	89.6%	1.04×	1.07
Draw (0:3)	5.6%	6.8%	6.0%	1.13×	14.73
Estoril (0:3)	2.9%	2.1%	4.5%	0.46×	48.67

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:4)	97.1%	98.4%	95.5%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.1%	3.2%	0.33×	93.30
Estoril (0:4)	0.8%	1.1%	1.4%	0.76×	94.27

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (1:0)	63.8%	63.4%	68.6%	0.92×	1.58
Draw (1:0)	19.3%	17.1%	17.8%	0.96×	5.86
FC Arouca (1:0)	16.9%	17.0%	13.8%	1.23×	5.89

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (2:0)	83.1%	83.1%	86.2%	0.96×	1.20
Draw (2:0)	10.4%	12.2%	7.1%	1.72×	8.18
FC Arouca (2:0)	6.5%	6.4%	6.8%	0.95×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.4%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
1st half highest scoring	27.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede	77.8%	76.7%	67.7%	1.13×	1.30
Estoril clean sheet	22.2%	23.3%	32.3%	0.72×	4.29

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril clean sheet in 1st half	54.8%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Estoril to concede in 1st half	45.2%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril over 2.5 corners	82.6%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Estoril under 6.5 corners	72.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Estoril over 3.5 corners	68.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Estoril under 5.5 corners	60.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Estoril over 4.5 corners	53.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Estoril under 4.5 corners	46.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Estoril over 5.5 corners	39.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Estoril under 3.5 corners	31.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Estoril over 6.5 corners	27.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Estoril under 2.5 corners	17.4%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 3.5 goals	91.7%	92.5%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Estoril over 0.5 goals	80.4%	82.7%	74.0%	1.12×	1.21
Estoril under 2.5 goals	77.6%	77.0%	80.8%	0.95×	1.30
Estoril under 1.5 goals	51.6%	52.6%	57.3%	0.92×	1.90
Estoril over 1.5 goals	48.4%	47.4%	42.7%	1.11×	2.11
Estoril over 2.5 goals	22.4%	23.0%	19.2%	1.20×	4.34
Estoril under 0.5 goals	19.6%	17.3%	26.0%	0.67×	5.78
Estoril over 3.5 goals	8.3%	7.5%	6.5%	1.16×	13.32

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 1st half	84.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Estoril over 0.5 in 1st half	50.3%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Estoril under 0.5 in 1st half	49.7%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Estoril over 1.5 in 1st half	15.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (home no bet)	61.8%	61.0%	54.1%	1.13×	1.64
Draw (home no bet)	38.2%	39.0%	45.9%	0.85×	2.56

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril even goals	51.9%	50.1%	54.6%	0.92×	1.99
Estoril odd goals	48.1%	49.9%	45.4%	1.10×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.1%	28.0%	—	—	3.58
HT 1-0	19.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.27
HT 0-1	16.5%	18.9%	—	—	5.28
HT 1-1	11.3%	11.2%	—	—	8.95
HT 2-0	6.7%	7.7%	—	—	12.99
Any other HT score	5.7%	7.7%	—	—	13.00
HT 0-2	4.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.15
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.5%	—	—	40.20
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.23
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.37

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril at HT / Estoril at FT	24.7%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
FC Arouca at HT / FC Arouca at FT	19.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Estoril at FT	14.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.29
Draw at HT / FC Arouca at FT	13.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Estoril at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.5%	—	—	15.31
FC Arouca at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.18
Estoril at HT / FC Arouca at FT	3.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.26
FC Arouca at HT / Estoril at FT	2.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.27

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score last	50.0%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
FC Arouca to score last	46.3%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
No goal scored	3.7%	3.9%	—	—	25.88

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.3%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Estoril to lead by 1 at any time	59.4%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
FC Arouca to lead by 1 at any time	55.0%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Estoril to lead by 2 at any time	28.2%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
FC Arouca to lead by 2 at any time	24.1%	19.7%	—	—	5.07
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.7%	17.9%	—	—	5.60
Estoril to lead by 3 at any time	11.0%	11.2%	—	—	8.92
FC Arouca to lead by 3 at any time	8.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.15

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril most corners	56.2%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
FC Arouca most corners	32.8%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	88.1%	90.0%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.3%	78.9%	73.3%	1.08×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.6%	78.8%	83.2%	0.95×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	73.6%	70.3%	1.05×	1.36
2-4 goals	60.6%	62.7%	63.5%	0.99×	1.60
1-3 goals	58.1%	58.9%	65.4%	0.90×	1.70
3-6 goals	56.5%	58.9%	50.5%	1.17×	1.70
3-5 goals	50.8%	52.0%	47.6%	1.09×	1.93
2-3 goals	43.1%	43.5%	45.8%	0.95×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.8%	39.2%	40.8%	0.96×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.7%	39.1%	42.5%	0.92×	2.56
4-6 goals	34.2%	34.0%	27.7%	1.23×	2.94
4-5 goals	28.5%	29.4%	24.7%	1.19×	3.40
5-6 goals	16.7%	17.5%	9.9%	1.77×	5.71
7+ goals	4.1%	1.9%	0.9%	2.06×	52.30

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril never behind	41.3%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
FC Arouca never behind	36.9%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	48.8%	50.3%	50.1%	1.01×	1.99
Odd number of goals	51.2%	49.7%	49.9%	0.99×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.5%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.5%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.3%	96.3%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Under 5.5 goals	90.2%	93.2%	96.1%	0.97×	1.07
Over 1.5 goals	81.3%	81.0%	74.0%	1.09×	1.24
Under 4.5 goals	79.3%	78.4%	89.3%	0.88×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	61.8%	61.5%	71.6%	0.86×	1.63
Over 2.5 goals	60.6%	61.5%	51.3%	1.20×	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	39.4%	38.5%	48.7%	0.79×	2.60
Over 3.5 goals	38.2%	38.5%	28.4%	1.35×	2.60
Over 4.5 goals	20.7%	21.6%	10.7%	2.02×	4.63
Under 1.5 goals	18.7%	19.0%	26.0%	0.73×	5.26
Over 5.5 goals	9.8%	6.8%	3.9%	1.75×	14.78
Under 0.5 goals	3.7%	3.7%	6.3%	0.59×	26.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.7%	97.6%	99.0%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.0%	88.8%	95.9%	0.93×	1.13
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.4%	76.9%	66.4%	1.16×	1.30
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.9%	72.5%	87.0%	0.83×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.8%	53.4%	63.1%	0.85×	1.87
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.2%	46.6%	36.9%	1.26×	2.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.1%	27.5%	13.0%	2.12×	3.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.6%	23.1%	33.6%	0.69×	4.33
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.0%	11.2%	4.1%	2.71×	8.90
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.3%	2.4%	1.0%	2.54×	41.24

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.7%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.7%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.3%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.3%	11.8%	—	—	8.49

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.2%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.8%	17.9%	—	—	5.60

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to score in both halves	73.1%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Estoril not to score in both halves	69.6%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Estoril to score in both halves	30.4%	32.7%	—	—	3.05
FC Arouca to score in both halves	26.9%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.9%	57.3%	48.1%	1.19×	1.75
Only Estoril scores	18.5%	17.2%	26.1%	0.66×	5.80
Only FC Arouca scores	15.9%	17.1%	19.8%	0.87×	5.84
Neither team scores	3.7%	3.6%	6.3%	0.57×	27.53

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	21.6%	23.0%	0.94×	4.63
Exactly 2 goals	20.7%	21.6%	22.9%	0.94×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	17.5%	18.6%	17.9%	1.04×	5.37
Exactly 1 goals	15.0%	12.6%	19.8%	0.63×	7.97
Exactly 5 goals	11.0%	12.5%	7.0%	1.80×	8.00
6 or more goals	9.8%	7.4%	3.9%	1.92×	13.45
Exactly 0 goals	3.7%	3.8%	6.3%	0.60×	26.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
1 goal in 2nd half	29.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.50
No goals in 2nd half	15.8%	18.4%	—	—	5.44

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to win both halves	91.1%	93.3%	—	—	1.07
Estoril not to win both halves	88.6%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Estoril to win both halves	11.4%	12.5%	—	—	8.02
FC Arouca to win both halves	8.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.93

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win either half	56.4%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
FC Arouca to win either half	51.5%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
FC Arouca to win neither half	48.5%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Estoril to win neither half	43.6%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to win to nil	84.1%	82.6%	80.2%	1.03×	1.21
Estoril not to win to nil	81.5%	82.4%	73.9%	1.12×	1.21
Estoril to win to nil	18.5%	17.6%	26.1%	0.67×	5.70
FC Arouca to win to nil	15.9%	17.4%	19.8%	0.88×	5.73

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.3%	23.9%	26.6%	0.90×	4.19
Estoril by 1	20.8%	23.9%	20.1%	1.19×	4.19
FC Arouca by 1	19.3%	17.3%	17.8%	0.97×	5.77
Estoril by 2	12.2%	12.0%	12.1%	0.99×	8.35
FC Arouca by 2	10.4%	11.9%	7.1%	1.68×	8.37
Estoril by 3+	8.4%	6.9%	10.4%	0.67×	14.49
FC Arouca by 3+	6.5%	6.9%	6.8%	1.01×	14.54

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.