Estoril v FC Arouca — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Estoril

0–0

19:15 UTC

FC Arouca

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 7 Sep, 07:51 · 11h before kick-off

Estoril win

42.6%

model 41.5%

Draw

20.7%

model 22.3%

FC Arouca win

36.7%

model 36.2%

432137

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.0%
2-1 8.7%
1-2 8.0%
1-0 7.8%
0-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.6%	Under 2.5	39.4%
BTTS yes	61.9%	BTTS no	38.1%
Estoril 1+	80.4%	Estoril 2+	48.4%
FC Arouca 1+	77.8%	FC Arouca 2+	44.4%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Over 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 51%

61.5% fair odds 1.63

moderate signal · 956 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Estoril (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 86%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Estoril.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Estoril have an estimated 42.6% win probability, against 36.7% for FC Arouca and 20.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.63 for Estoril and 1.50 for FC Arouca.

Why Estoril

Nothing in the data singles out Estoril.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.63 to 1.50. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why FC Arouca can win

FC Arouca carry the stronger rating, 1535 Elo against 1415. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Estoril, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Arouca, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Estoril: 45% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Arouca: 49% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Estoril are the model's most likely outcome at 42.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	412236	1.63–1.51	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	372241	1.46–1.56	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg	462134	1.97–1.66	2-1 9%	70%	69%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	452134	1.97–1.68	2-1 8%	70%	69%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win	45.8%	47.4%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
FC Arouca to win	33.6%	30.4%	31.4%	0.97×	3.29
Draw	20.5%	24.4%	26.6%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril & both teams score	29.0%	25.2%	16.2%	1.55×	3.97
FC Arouca & both teams score	21.8%	21.9%	11.7%	1.86×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Estoril & not both score	16.8%	17.9%	26.1%	0.69×	5.58
FC Arouca & not both score	11.9%	13.3%	19.8%	0.67×	7.55
Draw & not both score	2.1%	4.9%	6.3%	0.77×	20.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril & over 1.5	40.1%	40.3%	31.5%	1.28×	2.48
Estoril & over 2.5	34.9%	30.9%	24.7%	1.25×	3.24
FC Arouca & over 1.5	28.7%	26.0%	22.4%	1.16×	3.84
FC Arouca & over 2.5	25.0%	26.0%	17.3%	1.50×	3.84
Estoril & over 3.5	23.0%	21.7%	13.1%	1.65×	4.62
Estoril & under 3.5	22.8%	21.7%	29.2%	0.74×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
FC Arouca & under 3.5	17.9%	18.0%	25.5%	0.71×	5.56
FC Arouca & over 3.5	15.8%	18.0%	6.0%	2.98×	5.56
Estoril & under 2.5	10.9%	12.9%	17.6%	0.73×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	10.3%	12.9%	9.6%	1.34×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	10.3%	12.9%	17.2%	0.75×	7.77
Draw & over 3.5	10.3%	12.9%	9.6%	1.34×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	10.3%	12.9%	17.2%	0.75×	7.77
FC Arouca & under 2.5	8.6%	7.9%	14.2%	0.55×	12.69
Estoril & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
FC Arouca & under 1.5	5.0%	4.8%	9.1%	0.52×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	2.1%	4.8%	6.3%	0.75×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (1UP)	64.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
FC Arouca (1UP)	54.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (2UP)	45.8%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
FC Arouca (2UP)	33.6%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win 2nd half	38.5%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
FC Arouca to win 2nd half	32.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
2nd half drawn	29.4%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (+2.5)	88.2%	88.5%	89.6%	0.99×	1.13
FC Arouca (+1.5)	74.6%	73.7%	77.7%	0.95×	1.36
Estoril (+0.5)	66.4%	68.7%	68.6%	1.00×	1.46
FC Arouca (+0.5)	54.2%	52.4%	57.8%	0.91×	1.91
Estoril (-0.5)	45.8%	47.7%	42.2%	1.13×	2.10
FC Arouca (-0.5)	33.6%	31.3%	31.4%	1.00×	3.20
Estoril (-1.5)	25.4%	26.3%	22.3%	1.18×	3.81
Estoril (-2.5)	11.8%	11.5%	10.4%	1.11×	8.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to concede	86.0%	86.4%	74.0%	1.17×	1.16
FC Arouca clean sheet	14.0%	13.6%	26.0%	0.52×	7.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to concede in 1st half	57.1%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
FC Arouca clean sheet in 1st half	42.9%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 6.5 corners	85.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
FC Arouca under 5.5 corners	76.3%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
FC Arouca over 2.5 corners	70.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Arouca under 4.5 corners	63.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
FC Arouca over 3.5 corners	53.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
FC Arouca under 3.5 corners	46.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
FC Arouca over 4.5 corners	36.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Arouca under 2.5 corners	29.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
FC Arouca over 5.5 corners	23.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
FC Arouca over 6.5 corners	14.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 3.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
FC Arouca over 0.5 goals	81.0%	81.4%	67.7%	1.20×	1.23
FC Arouca under 2.5 goals	76.7%	76.2%	88.9%	0.86×	1.31
FC Arouca under 1.5 goals	50.5%	53.7%	65.4%	0.82×	1.86
FC Arouca over 1.5 goals	49.5%	46.3%	34.6%	1.34×	2.16
FC Arouca over 2.5 goals	23.3%	23.8%	11.1%	2.14×	4.21
FC Arouca under 0.5 goals	19.0%	18.6%	32.3%	0.58×	5.38
FC Arouca over 3.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	3.9%	1.99×	13.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 1.5 in 1st half	85.6%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
FC Arouca under 0.5 in 1st half	51.4%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
FC Arouca over 0.5 in 1st half	48.6%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
FC Arouca over 1.5 in 1st half	14.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.05

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (away no bet)	69.1%	66.4%	61.3%	1.08×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	30.9%	33.6%	38.7%	0.87×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca even goals	51.8%	52.8%	58.6%	0.90×	1.89
FC Arouca odd goals	48.2%	47.2%	41.4%	1.14×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	72.1%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	27.9%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	78.9%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals	21.1%	27.2%	—	—	3.67

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	70.2%	71.7%	—	—	1.39
Estoril to score 2+ in a row	46.5%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
FC Arouca to score 2+ in a row	36.6%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.2%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Estoril to score 3+ in a row	18.8%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
FC Arouca to score 3+ in a row	12.3%	12.2%	—	—	8.22

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril corners (+3.5)	90.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Estoril corners (+2.5)	84.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Estoril corners (+1.5)	76.9%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
FC Arouca corners (+3.5)	75.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
FC Arouca corners (+2.5)	66.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
FC Arouca corners (+1.5)	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Estoril corners (-1.5)	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Estoril corners (-2.5)	33.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Estoril corners (-3.5)	24.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
FC Arouca corners (-1.5)	23.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
FC Arouca corners (-2.5)	15.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
FC Arouca corners (-3.5)	9.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.8%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	32.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.2%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
1-1	8.1%	7.4%	11.0%	0.68×	13.48
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
2-2	7.1%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.48
Any other score	7.5%	7.4%	2.9%	2.53×	13.48
1-0	5.8%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.48
2-0	5.1%	7.4%	7.0%	1.07×	13.48
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.48
0-1	5.0%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.46
3-2	4.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.46
0-0	2.1%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.48
0-2	3.7%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.47
0-3	2.0%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.48
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.49
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.47
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.48
2-3	3.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.47
2-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.48
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.47
3-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.47
3-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	11.06×	58.48
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.48
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.47
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.48
4-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.48
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril leading at HT (DNB)	58.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
FC Arouca leading at HT (DNB)	41.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or FC Arouca (12)	79.5%	75.6%	73.4%	1.03×	1.32
Estoril or draw (1X)	66.4%	69.6%	68.6%	1.01×	1.44
FC Arouca or draw (X2)	54.2%	52.6%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or draw at HT	73.3%	74.4%	—	—	1.35
Estoril or FC Arouca at HT	63.8%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
FC Arouca or draw at HT	62.8%	62.1%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or draw (1UP)	66.4%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
FC Arouca or draw (1UP)	54.9%	59.5%	—	—	1.68

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or FC Arouca in 2nd half	70.6%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Estoril or draw in 2nd half	67.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
FC Arouca or draw in 2nd half	61.5%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	44.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (DNB)	57.7%	58.3%	57.4%	1.02×	1.72
FC Arouca (DNB)	42.3%	41.7%	42.6%	0.98×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score first	53.0%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
FC Arouca to score first	44.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	2.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.59

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.2%	58.3%	48.1%	1.21×	1.72
Not both teams to score	30.8%	41.7%	51.9%	0.80×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	61.0%	50.1%	37.2%	1.34×	2.00
Not both score & under 2.5	21.6%	27.7%	37.9%	0.73×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	9.2%	8.4%	14.2%	0.59×	11.95
Both score & under 2.5	8.1%	8.4%	11.0%	0.76×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	71.1%	80.4%	85.9%	0.94×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	28.9%	19.6%	14.1%	1.39×	5.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	57.6%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	42.4%	33.7%	—	—	2.97

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	41.8%	49.9%	—	—	2.01
Both score 2nd half only	30.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Both score 1st half only	15.8%	15.6%	—	—	6.43
Both score in both halves	11.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	27.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	68.3%	66.9%	—	—	1.50
A half without a goal	31.7%	33.1%	—	—	3.02

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	41.5%	42.1%	27.7%	1.52×	2.38
2-3 goals	38.1%	35.1%	45.8%	0.77×	2.85
0-1 goals	12.8%	16.9%	26.0%	0.65×	5.91
7+ goals	7.5%	7.6%	0.9%	8.19×	13.17

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to score exactly 1	31.5%	33.8%	33.2%	1.02×	2.96
FC Arouca to score exactly 2	26.2%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.65
FC Arouca to score 3+	23.3%	22.4%	11.1%	2.01×	4.46
FC Arouca to score exactly 0	19.0%	19.6%	32.3%	0.61×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score 3+	31.4%	32.6%	19.2%	1.70×	3.06
Estoril to score exactly 1	27.5%	26.5%	31.5%	0.84×	3.77
Estoril to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	23.6%	1.12×	3.77
Estoril to score exactly 0	14.0%	14.3%	26.0%	0.55×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril leading at HT	37.2%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Draw at HT	36.2%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
FC Arouca leading at HT	26.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril -1: 2	54.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Estoril -1: 1	25.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Estoril -1: X	20.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:1)	54.2%	51.2%	57.8%	0.89×	1.95
Estoril (0:1)	25.4%	27.0%	22.3%	1.21×	3.71
Draw (0:1)	20.4%	24.3%	20.1%	1.21×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:2)	74.6%	75.7%	77.7%	0.97×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	13.6%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.12
Estoril (0:2)	11.8%	11.0%	10.4%	1.06×	9.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:3)	88.2%	90.8%	89.6%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.2%	5.8%	6.0%	0.97×	17.16
Estoril (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	4.5%	0.53×	42.06

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:4)	95.4%	98.1%	95.5%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.1%	1.2%	3.2%	0.37×	83.32
Estoril (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	1.4%	0.86×	83.50

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (1:0)	66.4%	69.9%	68.6%	1.02×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	17.4%	17.0%	17.8%	0.96×	5.87
FC Arouca (1:0)	16.3%	17.0%	13.8%	1.24×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (2:0)	83.7%	84.6%	86.2%	0.98×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.7%	6.5%	7.1%	0.91×	15.46
FC Arouca (2:0)	6.6%	6.5%	6.8%	0.95×	15.50

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.1%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	20.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede	81.0%	80.7%	67.7%	1.19×	1.24
Estoril clean sheet	19.0%	19.3%	32.3%	0.60×	5.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril clean sheet in 1st half	51.4%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Estoril to concede in 1st half	48.6%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril over 2.5 corners	82.6%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Estoril under 6.5 corners	72.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Estoril over 3.5 corners	68.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Estoril under 5.5 corners	60.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Estoril over 4.5 corners	53.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Estoril under 4.5 corners	46.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Estoril over 5.5 corners	39.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Estoril under 3.5 corners	31.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Estoril over 6.5 corners	27.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Estoril under 2.5 corners	17.4%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 3.5 goals	86.3%	87.3%	93.5%	0.93×	1.15
Estoril over 0.5 goals	86.0%	87.3%	74.0%	1.18×	1.15
Estoril under 2.5 goals	68.6%	67.9%	80.8%	0.84×	1.47
Estoril over 1.5 goals	58.5%	58.8%	42.7%	1.38×	1.70
Estoril under 1.5 goals	41.5%	41.2%	57.3%	0.72×	2.43
Estoril over 2.5 goals	31.4%	32.1%	19.2%	1.68×	3.11
Estoril under 0.5 goals	14.0%	12.8%	26.0%	0.49×	7.84
Estoril over 3.5 goals	13.7%	12.7%	6.5%	1.96×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 1st half	79.2%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
Estoril over 0.5 in 1st half	57.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Estoril under 0.5 in 1st half	42.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Estoril over 1.5 in 1st half	20.8%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (home no bet)	62.1%	60.2%	54.1%	1.11×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	37.9%	39.8%	45.9%	0.87×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril even goals	51.0%	50.6%	54.6%	0.93×	1.98
Estoril odd goals	49.0%	49.4%	45.4%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	22.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 1-0	18.8%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	12.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
Any other HT score	8.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 2-0	7.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 2-1	5.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 0-2	4.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.25
HT 1-2	4.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.31
HT 2-2	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.48

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril at HT / Estoril at FT	28.3%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
FC Arouca at HT / FC Arouca at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Estoril at FT	14.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / FC Arouca at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.59
Estoril at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
FC Arouca at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Estoril at HT / FC Arouca at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
FC Arouca at HT / Estoril at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score last	53.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
FC Arouca to score last	44.9%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	2.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.59

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.9%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Estoril to lead by 1 at any time	64.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	58.6%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
FC Arouca to lead by 1 at any time	54.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Estoril to lead by 2 at any time	34.6%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.8%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
FC Arouca to lead by 2 at any time	24.7%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Estoril to lead by 3 at any time	15.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
FC Arouca to lead by 3 at any time	9.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril most corners	56.2%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
FC Arouca most corners	32.8%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.9%	83.5%	90.0%	0.93×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.6%	78.6%	73.3%	1.07×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.4%	70.3%	1.03×	1.38
1-4 goals	68.0%	69.0%	83.2%	0.83×	1.45
3-6 goals	62.7%	63.4%	50.5%	1.25×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.3%	59.2%	63.5%	0.93×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.3%	53.2%	47.6%	1.12×	1.88
1-3 goals	48.8%	48.7%	65.4%	0.74×	2.06
4-6 goals	41.5%	43.6%	27.7%	1.57×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	40.8%	1.07×	2.30
2-3 goals	38.1%	39.2%	45.8%	0.86×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.1%	35.4%	24.7%	1.43×	2.83
1-2 goals	27.7%	30.2%	42.5%	0.71×	3.31
5-6 goals	22.3%	24.5%	9.9%	2.47×	4.09
7+ goals	7.5%	8.7%	0.9%	9.42×	11.45

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril never behind	43.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
FC Arouca never behind	33.1%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.0%	50.8%	50.1%	1.01×	1.97
Odd number of goals	51.0%	49.2%	49.9%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.7%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.9%	95.5%	93.7%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	87.2%	87.6%	74.0%	1.18×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	84.0%	82.4%	96.1%	0.86×	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	70.2%	72.5%	51.3%	1.41×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	70.1%	72.5%	89.3%	0.81×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	50.9%	52.5%	71.6%	0.73×	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	49.1%	47.5%	28.4%	1.67×	2.10
Over 4.5 goals	29.9%	27.5%	10.7%	2.58×	3.64
Under 2.5 goals	29.8%	27.5%	48.7%	0.56×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	16.0%	17.6%	3.9%	4.56×	5.68
Under 1.5 goals	12.8%	12.4%	26.0%	0.48×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	2.1%	4.5%	6.3%	0.71×	22.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.8%	92.5%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	84.6%	81.1%	66.4%	1.22×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	81.5%	81.0%	95.9%	0.85×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	63.0%	62.1%	87.0%	0.71×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.2%	62.1%	36.9%	1.68×	1.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.8%	37.9%	63.1%	0.60×	2.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	37.0%	37.9%	13.0%	2.92×	2.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	18.5%	19.0%	4.1%	4.57×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	15.4%	18.9%	33.6%	0.56×	5.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	8.2%	7.5%	1.0%	7.90×	13.26

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.6%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.0%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	55.5%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Over 1.5 in 1st half	44.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.0%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.4%	13.9%	—	—	7.22

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.2%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	64.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	62.3%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	37.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	35.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.8%	14.6%	—	—	6.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to score in both halves	69.3%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Estoril not to score in both halves	61.6%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Estoril to score in both halves	38.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
FC Arouca to score in both halves	30.7%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	69.2%	59.7%	48.1%	1.24×	1.68
Only Estoril scores	16.8%	16.1%	26.1%	0.62×	6.22
Only FC Arouca scores	11.9%	10.9%	19.8%	0.55×	9.15
Neither team scores	2.1%	4.6%	6.3%	0.72×	21.90

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	19.2%	17.4%	17.9%	0.97×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	16.9%	17.4%	22.9%	0.76×	5.74
6 or more goals	16.0%	17.4%	3.9%	4.51×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	13.9%	12.1%	7.0%	1.74×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	10.7%	12.1%	19.8%	0.61×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	2.1%	4.4%	6.3%	0.70×	22.69

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	62.3%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	25.8%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	11.8%	14.4%	—	—	6.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to win both halves	91.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Estoril not to win both halves	85.8%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Estoril to win both halves	14.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
FC Arouca to win both halves	8.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.45

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win either half	61.4%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
FC Arouca to win either half	50.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
FC Arouca to win neither half	49.7%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Estoril to win neither half	38.6%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to win to nil	88.1%	88.2%	80.2%	1.10×	1.13
Estoril not to win to nil	83.2%	83.0%	73.9%	1.12×	1.20
Estoril to win to nil	16.8%	17.0%	26.1%	0.65×	5.89
FC Arouca to win to nil	11.9%	11.8%	19.8%	0.60×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril by 1	20.4%	24.1%	20.1%	1.20×	4.14
Draw	20.5%	24.1%	26.6%	0.91×	4.14
FC Arouca by 1	17.4%	16.9%	17.8%	0.95×	5.91
Estoril by 2	13.6%	11.8%	12.1%	0.98×	8.47
Estoril by 3+	11.8%	11.8%	10.4%	1.14×	8.48
FC Arouca by 2	9.7%	7.3%	7.1%	1.02×	13.77
FC Arouca by 3+	6.6%	7.3%	6.8%	1.07×	13.79

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.