Estrela v Braga — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 10 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Estrela

19:15 UTC

Braga

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 59h before kick-off

Estrela win

23.0%

model 22.9%

Draw

23.0%

model 22.3%

Braga win

54.0%

model 54.8%

232354

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
0-1 10.3%
1-2 9.8%
0-2 9.1%
1-0 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.4%	Under 2.5	44.6%
BTTS yes	55.1%	BTTS no	44.9%
Estrela 1+	66.2%	Estrela 2+	29.5%
Braga 1+	83.7%	Braga 2+	54.2%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.82. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Braga (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 43%

73.1% fair odds 1.37

strong signal · 2923 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Braga under 1.5 in 1st half

Away goals O/U 1HT

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 361 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Braga carry the stronger rating, 1639 Elo against 1392.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Braga have an estimated 54.0% win probability, against 23.0% for Estrela and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.08 for Estrela and 1.82 for Braga.

Why Estrela

Nothing in the data singles out Estrela.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Braga can win

Braga carry the stronger rating, 1639 Elo against 1392.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Estrela, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Braga, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Estrela: 42% possession, 8.6 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Braga: 58% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Braga are the model's most likely outcome at 54.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	232255	1.08–1.82	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	242254	1.15–1.86	1-1 10%	58%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to win	54.8%	51.6%	31.3%	1.65×	1.94
Estrela to win	22.9%	23.5%	42.1%	0.56×	4.26
Draw	22.3%	23.5%	26.7%	0.88×	4.26

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga & not both score	28.7%	26.5%	19.8%	1.34×	3.78
Braga & both teams score	26.2%	26.5%	11.7%	2.26×	3.78
Draw & both teams score	17.1%	18.2%	20.4%	0.89×	5.49
Estrela & both teams score	11.8%	12.6%	16.2%	0.78×	7.91
Estrela & not both score	11.1%	12.6%	26.1%	0.48×	7.91
Draw & not both score	5.2%	7.7%	6.5%	1.18×	13.05

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga & over 1.5	44.5%	42.8%	22.4%	1.91×	2.34
Braga & over 2.5	35.4%	36.6%	17.3%	2.12×	2.73
Braga & under 3.5	34.7%	31.8%	25.5%	1.25×	3.15
Braga & over 3.5	20.1%	21.8%	6.0%	3.62×	4.59
Braga & under 2.5	19.4%	17.7%	14.2%	1.25×	5.66
Estrela & over 1.5	16.6%	17.7%	31.5%	0.56×	5.66
Estrela & under 3.5	16.6%	17.7%	29.2%	0.61×	5.66
Draw & over 1.5	17.1%	17.7%	20.4%	0.87×	5.66
Draw & under 2.5	15.6%	17.7%	17.3%	1.02×	5.66
Draw & under 3.5	15.6%	17.7%	17.3%	1.02×	5.66
Estrela & over 2.5	13.3%	12.5%	24.7%	0.50×	8.03
Braga & under 1.5	10.3%	12.5%	9.1%	1.37×	8.03
Estrela & under 2.5	9.5%	7.6%	17.6%	0.43×	13.17
Estrela & under 1.5	6.3%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.17
Estrela & over 3.5	6.3%	7.6%	13.1%	0.58×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	6.7%	7.6%	9.6%	0.79×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	6.7%	7.6%	9.6%	0.79×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	5.2%	7.6%	6.5%	1.17×	13.17

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (1UP)	68.7%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Estrela (1UP)	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (2UP)	54.8%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Estrela (2UP)	22.9%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to win 2nd half	46.8%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
2nd half drawn	32.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Estrela to win 2nd half	20.8%	22.3%	—	—	4.49

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (+2.5)	97.6%	96.6%	89.7%	1.08×	1.04
Braga (+1.5)	91.6%	92.3%	77.8%	1.19×	1.08
Braga (+0.5)	77.1%	78.2%	57.9%	1.35×	1.28
Braga (-0.5)	54.8%	52.0%	31.3%	1.66×	1.92
Estrela (+0.5)	45.2%	48.0%	68.7%	0.70×	2.08
Estrela (-0.5)	22.9%	21.8%	42.1%	0.52×	4.60
Estrela (-1.5)	8.4%	7.7%	22.2%	0.35×	12.96
Estrela (-2.5)	2.4%	3.4%	10.3%	0.33×	29.57

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to concede	66.2%	71.6%	73.9%	0.97×	1.40
Braga clean sheet	33.8%	28.4%	26.1%	1.09×	3.52

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga clean sheet in 1st half	62.7%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Braga to concede in 1st half	37.3%	37.9%	—	—	2.64

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga over 2.5 corners	84.7%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Braga over 3.5 corners	72.0%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Braga under 6.5 corners	68.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Braga over 4.5 corners	57.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Braga under 5.5 corners	56.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Braga over 5.5 corners	43.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Braga under 4.5 corners	42.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Braga over 6.5 corners	31.2%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Braga under 3.5 corners	28.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Braga under 2.5 corners	15.3%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga under 3.5 goals	88.9%	87.2%	96.1%	0.91×	1.15
Braga over 0.5 goals	83.7%	82.4%	67.6%	1.22×	1.21
Braga under 2.5 goals	72.6%	71.3%	88.9%	0.80×	1.40
Braga over 1.5 goals	54.2%	53.6%	34.6%	1.55×	1.87
Braga under 1.5 goals	45.8%	46.4%	65.4%	0.71×	2.16
Braga over 2.5 goals	27.4%	28.7%	11.1%	2.58×	3.48
Braga under 0.5 goals	16.3%	17.6%	32.4%	0.54×	5.70
Braga over 3.5 goals	11.1%	12.8%	3.9%	3.32×	7.81

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga under 1.5 in 1st half	83.5%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Braga over 0.5 in 1st half	51.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Braga under 0.5 in 1st half	48.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Braga over 1.5 in 1st half	16.5%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela (away no bet)	50.6%	52.1%	61.2%	0.85×	1.92
Draw (away no bet)	49.4%	47.9%	38.8%	1.23×	2.09

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga even goals	51.3%	53.5%	58.6%	0.91×	1.87
Braga odd goals	48.7%	46.5%	41.4%	1.12×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.0%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.0%	17.4%	—	—	5.75

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.2%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.8%	33.5%	—	—	2.99

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.0%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Braga to score 2+ in a row	45.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.7%	21.2%	—	—	4.71
Estrela to score 2+ in a row	20.7%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Braga to score 3+ in a row	19.1%	17.4%	—	—	5.75
Estrela to score 3+ in a row	4.9%	3.1%	—	—	32.33

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga corners (+3.5)	96.2%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Braga corners (+2.5)	92.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Braga corners (+1.5)	87.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Estrela corners (+3.5)	64.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Braga corners (-1.5)	58.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Estrela corners (+2.5)	53.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Braga corners (-2.5)	46.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Estrela corners (+1.5)	41.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Braga corners (-3.5)	35.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Estrela corners (-1.5)	12.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Estrela corners (-2.5)	7.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Estrela corners (-3.5)	3.8%	4.2%	—	—	23.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	55.0%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.0%	22.7%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.6%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	82.0%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	56.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	55.0%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	45.0%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	43.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	25.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	18.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	12.4%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.5%	11.2%	11.0%	1.03×	8.90
0-1	10.3%	11.2%	9.1%	1.23×	8.90
1-2	9.8%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
2-1	5.9%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.49
2-2	5.3%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.49
0-0	5.2%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.49
0-2	9.1%	7.4%	5.2%	1.41×	13.48
0-3	5.5%	7.4%	3.9%	1.92×	13.49
1-0	6.3%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.49
1-3	6.0%	7.4%	1.4%	5.34×	13.49
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.10
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.11
3-0	1.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.11
3-1	2.1%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.11
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.11
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.11
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	11.15×	58.11
4-0	0.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.11
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.11
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.11
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.11
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.11
Any other score	4.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.10
0-4	2.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.10
1-4	2.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.10
2-0	3.2%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.10

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga leading at HT (DNB)	64.1%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Estrela leading at HT (DNB)	35.9%	36.9%	—	—	2.71

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela or Braga (12)	77.7%	76.5%	73.3%	1.04×	1.31
Braga or draw (X2)	77.1%	76.5%	57.9%	1.32×	1.31
Estrela or draw (1X)	45.2%	48.4%	68.7%	0.71×	2.07

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga or draw at HT	78.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Estrela or draw at HT	62.5%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Estrela or Braga at HT	58.6%	57.3%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga or draw (1UP)	77.1%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Estrela or draw (1UP)	45.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga or draw in 2nd half	79.2%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Estrela or Braga in 2nd half	67.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Estrela or draw in 2nd half	53.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.7%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Neither half drawn	39.3%	39.9%	—	—	2.50

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (DNB)	70.6%	73.1%	42.6%	1.71×	1.37
Estrela (DNB)	29.4%	26.9%	57.4%	0.47×	3.71

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to score first	59.4%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Estrela to score first	35.5%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
No goal scored	5.2%	6.3%	—	—	15.99

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.1%	55.6%	48.0%	1.16×	1.80
Not both teams to score	44.9%	44.4%	52.0%	0.85×	2.26

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.6%	41.7%	37.2%	1.12×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	34.1%	34.0%	38.0%	0.90×	2.94
Not both score & over 2.5	10.8%	11.9%	14.2%	0.84×	8.41
Both score & under 2.5	10.5%	11.9%	11.0%	1.09×	8.41

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.0%	83.1%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	16.0%	16.9%	14.0%	1.20×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.5%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.5%	31.8%	—	—	3.14

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.2%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Both score 2nd half only	24.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Both score 1st half only	13.3%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Both score in both halves	5.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.11

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.8%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.2%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	43.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.36

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.2%	46.6%	45.7%	1.02×	2.15
4-6 goals	30.2%	30.8%	27.6%	1.12×	3.24
0-1 goals	21.8%	23.3%	26.1%	0.89×	4.29
7+ goals	2.9%	2.0%	0.9%	2.15×	50.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to score exactly 1	29.5%	27.4%	33.2%	0.82×	3.65
Braga to score 3+	27.4%	27.4%	11.1%	2.46×	3.66
Braga to score exactly 2	26.8%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.66
Braga to score exactly 0	16.3%	18.4%	32.4%	0.57×	5.43

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.5%	31.5%	1.16×	2.74
Estrela to score exactly 0	33.8%	32.1%	26.1%	1.23×	3.11
Estrela to score exactly 2	19.9%	18.3%	23.6%	0.78×	5.45
Estrela to score 3+	9.6%	8.9%	19.1%	0.46×	11.27

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.4%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Braga leading at HT	37.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Estrela leading at HT	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga -1: 1	45.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Braga -1: 2	30.9%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Braga -1: X	24.0%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (0:1)	77.1%	76.7%	57.9%	1.33×	1.30
Draw (0:1)	14.5%	13.2%	20.1%	0.66×	7.59
Estrela (0:1)	8.4%	8.7%	22.2%	0.39×	11.46

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (0:2)	91.6%	91.4%	77.8%	1.17×	1.09
Draw (0:2)	6.0%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	12.96
Estrela (0:2)	2.4%	3.5%	10.3%	0.34×	28.83

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (0:3)	97.6%	96.7%	89.7%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.9%	2.6%	6.0%	0.43×	38.98
Estrela (0:3)	0.6%	2.6%	4.5%	0.57×	39.00

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (0:4)	99.4%	97.7%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Estrela (0:4)	0.1%	1.4%	1.4%	1.02×	70.62
Draw (0:4)	0.5%	1.4%	3.2%	0.44×	70.61

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela (1:0)	45.2%	49.5%	68.7%	0.72×	2.02
Braga (1:0)	30.9%	29.0%	13.7%	2.11×	3.45
Draw (1:0)	24.0%	21.9%	17.7%	1.24×	4.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela (2:0)	69.1%	71.3%	86.3%	0.83×	1.40
Draw (2:0)	16.7%	15.4%	7.1%	2.17×	6.50
Braga (2:0)	14.2%	11.5%	6.8%	1.70×	8.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.7%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	26.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	23.4%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela to concede	83.7%	82.6%	67.6%	1.22×	1.21
Estrela clean sheet	16.3%	17.4%	32.4%	0.54×	5.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela to concede in 1st half	51.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Estrela clean sheet in 1st half	48.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela under 6.5 corners	94.5%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Estrela under 5.5 corners	89.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Estrela under 4.5 corners	79.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Estrela under 3.5 corners	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Estrela over 2.5 corners	54.7%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Estrela under 2.5 corners	45.3%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Estrela over 3.5 corners	35.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Estrela over 4.5 corners	20.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Estrela over 5.5 corners	11.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.29
Estrela over 6.5 corners	5.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.37

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela under 3.5 goals	97.5%	96.6%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
Estrela under 2.5 goals	90.4%	92.3%	80.9%	1.14×	1.08
Estrela under 1.5 goals	70.5%	73.2%	57.4%	1.27×	1.37
Estrela over 0.5 goals	66.2%	68.4%	73.9%	0.93×	1.46
Estrela under 0.5 goals	33.8%	31.6%	26.1%	1.21×	3.17
Estrela over 1.5 goals	29.5%	26.8%	42.6%	0.63×	3.73
Estrela over 2.5 goals	9.6%	7.7%	19.1%	0.40×	13.03
Estrela over 3.5 goals	2.5%	3.4%	6.5%	0.53×	29.08

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela under 1.5 in 1st half	92.0%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Estrela under 0.5 in 1st half	62.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Estrela over 0.5 in 1st half	37.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Estrela over 1.5 in 1st half	8.0%	6.2%	—	—	16.21

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (home no bet)	71.1%	70.2%	54.0%	1.30×	1.42
Draw (home no bet)	28.9%	29.8%	46.0%	0.65×	3.36

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela even goals	55.7%	55.5%	54.6%	1.02×	1.80
Estrela odd goals	44.3%	44.5%	45.4%	0.98×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.3%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
HT 0-1	22.1%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
HT 1-0	14.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 1-1	10.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-2	8.0%	8.0%	—	—	12.46
Any other HT score	4.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.33
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.38
HT 2-0	3.3%	2.5%	—	—	40.40
HT 2-1	2.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.44
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.51

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga at HT / Braga at FT	31.7%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
Draw at HT / Braga at FT	19.6%	17.2%	—	—	5.81
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Estrela at HT / Estrela at FT	12.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Draw at HT / Estrela at FT	8.8%	6.4%	—	—	15.52
Estrela at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.7%	—	—	27.26
Braga at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.7%	—	—	27.27
Estrela at HT / Braga at FT	3.5%	3.7%	—	—	27.30
Braga at HT / Estrela at FT	1.5%	3.7%	—	—	27.35

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to score last	59.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Estrela to score last	35.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.64
No goal scored	5.2%	6.3%	—	—	15.99

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.8%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Braga to lead by 1 at any time	68.7%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Estrela to lead by 1 at any time	41.1%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
Braga to lead by 2 at any time	37.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.5%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Braga to lead by 3 at any time	16.9%	17.3%	—	—	5.79
Estrela to lead by 2 at any time	13.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
Estrela to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.28

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga most corners	70.2%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Estrela most corners	20.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	9.9%	8.5%	—	—	11.79

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.2%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
1-4 goals	78.0%	77.9%	83.0%	0.94×	1.28
2-6 goals	75.3%	77.9%	73.1%	1.06×	1.28
2-5 goals	70.8%	72.1%	70.2%	1.03×	1.39
1-3 goals	61.8%	62.7%	65.3%	0.96×	1.60
2-4 goals	61.4%	62.7%	63.4%	0.99×	1.60
3-6 goals	52.6%	52.9%	50.5%	1.05×	1.89
3-5 goals	48.0%	47.4%	47.5%	1.00×	2.11
2-3 goals	45.2%	47.4%	45.7%	1.04×	2.11
1-2 goals	39.4%	39.0%	42.4%	0.92×	2.56
3-4 goals	38.6%	39.0%	40.7%	0.96×	2.56
4-6 goals	30.2%	34.6%	27.6%	1.25×	2.89
4-5 goals	25.6%	28.5%	24.7%	1.16×	3.51
5-6 goals	14.0%	13.5%	9.9%	1.37×	7.40
7+ goals	2.9%	2.2%	0.9%	2.42×	44.57

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga never behind	53.7%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Estrela never behind	26.1%	30.9%	—	—	3.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.5%	50.0%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.0%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.5%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.5%	48.4%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.2%	81.7%	89.4%	0.91×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.2%	77.0%	73.9%	1.04×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	67.0%	67.5%	71.6%	0.94×	1.48
Over 2.5 goals	55.4%	57.5%	51.2%	1.12×	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	44.6%	42.5%	48.8%	0.87×	2.35
Over 3.5 goals	33.0%	32.5%	28.4%	1.14×	3.08
Under 1.5 goals	21.8%	23.0%	26.1%	0.88×	4.35
Over 4.5 goals	16.8%	18.3%	10.6%	1.72×	5.47
Over 5.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	3.9%	2.00×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	6.5%	1.19×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.8%	92.0%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.9%	76.2%	87.1%	0.88×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.8%	71.7%	66.3%	1.08×	1.40
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.4%	58.0%	63.2%	0.92×	1.73
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.6%	42.0%	36.8%	1.14×	2.38
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.2%	28.3%	33.7%	0.84×	3.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.1%	23.8%	12.9%	1.84×	4.21
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.2%	8.0%	4.1%	1.92×	12.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.7%	1.0%	2.86×	36.68

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.1%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.9%	11.6%	—	—	8.59

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.0%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.8%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.0%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela not to score in both halves	82.8%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Braga not to score in both halves	65.7%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
Braga to score in both halves	34.3%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Estrela to score in both halves	17.2%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.1%	57.9%	48.0%	1.21×	1.73
Only Braga scores	28.7%	25.5%	19.8%	1.29×	3.92
Only Estrela scores	11.1%	11.1%	26.1%	0.42×	9.05
Neither team scores	5.2%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.97

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.8%	22.3%	22.8%	0.98×	4.48
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.3%	23.0%	0.97×	4.48
Exactly 1 goals	16.6%	17.6%	19.8%	0.89×	5.69
Exactly 4 goals	16.2%	17.6%	17.9%	0.98×	5.69
Exactly 5 goals	9.4%	7.8%	6.9%	1.12×	12.88
6 or more goals	7.4%	7.8%	3.9%	2.01×	12.89
Exactly 0 goals	5.2%	7.8%	6.5%	1.20×	12.89

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.8%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
1 goal in 2nd half	31.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
No goals in 2nd half	18.0%	16.6%	—	—	6.03

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela not to win both halves	95.7%	97.4%	—	—	1.03
Braga not to win both halves	82.5%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Braga to win both halves	17.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Estrela to win both halves	4.4%	2.6%	—	—	38.39

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to win either half	66.9%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Estrela to win neither half	62.5%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Estrela to win either half	37.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
Braga to win neither half	33.1%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela not to win to nil	88.9%	88.1%	73.9%	1.19×	1.14
Braga not to win to nil	71.3%	74.8%	80.2%	0.93×	1.34
Braga to win to nil	28.7%	25.2%	19.8%	1.28×	3.96
Estrela to win to nil	11.1%	11.9%	26.1%	0.46×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga by 1	24.0%	23.3%	17.7%	1.31×	4.29
Draw	22.3%	23.3%	26.7%	0.87×	4.29
Braga by 2	16.7%	17.3%	7.1%	2.44×	5.78
Estrela by 1	14.5%	11.8%	20.1%	0.59×	8.46
Braga by 3+	14.2%	11.8%	6.8%	1.74×	8.46
Estrela by 2	6.0%	7.3%	12.0%	0.61×	13.66
Estrela by 3+	2.4%	3.0%	10.3%	0.29×	33.82