Estrela v Gil Vicente FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Estrela

20:00 UTC

Gil Vicente FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,041h before kick-off

Estrela win

28.0%

model 29.9%

Draw

27.9%

model 26.2%

Gil Vicente FC win

44.2%

model 43.8%

282844

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.4%
0-1 12.3%
1-0 9.8%
1-2 8.7%
0-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.0%	Under 2.5	56.0%
BTTS yes	48.6%	BTTS no	51.4%
Estrela 1+	65.8%	Estrela 2+	29.1%
Gil Vicente FC 1+	74.4%	Gil Vicente FC 2+	39.6%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.36. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Gil Vicente FC or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 58%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Estrela not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 74%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Gil Vicente FC carry the stronger rating, 1506 Elo against 1392.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Gil Vicente FC have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.0% for Estrela and 27.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.07 for Estrela and 1.36 for Gil Vicente FC.

Why Estrela

Nothing in the data singles out Estrela.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Gil Vicente FC can win

Gil Vicente FC carry the stronger rating, 1506 Elo against 1392.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Estrela, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Gil Vicente FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Estrela: 42% possession, 8.6 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Gil Vicente FC: 49% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Gil Vicente FC are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	302644	1.07–1.36	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	282646	1.06–1.45	0-1 12%	46%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC to win	46.3%	47.4%	31.4%	1.51×	2.11
Estrela to win	28.1%	27.9%	42.1%	0.66×	3.58
Draw	25.6%	27.9%	26.7%	1.05×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC & not both score	26.9%	25.2%	19.9%	1.27×	3.97
Gil Vicente FC & both teams score	19.4%	18.0%	11.7%	1.53×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	20.3%	0.88×	5.56
Estrela & not both score	15.8%	18.0%	26.0%	0.69×	5.57
Estrela & both teams score	12.3%	13.3%	16.2%	0.82×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.8%	8.3%	6.5%	1.29×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC & over 1.5	34.1%	30.8%	22.5%	1.37×	3.25
Gil Vicente FC & under 3.5	33.9%	30.8%	25.4%	1.21×	3.25
Gil Vicente FC & over 2.5	25.6%	26.1%	17.4%	1.50×	3.84
Estrela & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	29.1%	0.74×	4.63
Gil Vicente FC & under 2.5	20.7%	21.6%	14.2%	1.52×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.9%	18.0%	17.3%	1.04×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.9%	18.0%	17.3%	1.04×	5.56
Estrela & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	31.4%	0.57×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	20.3%	0.88×	5.56
Estrela & over 2.5	14.5%	12.8%	24.7%	0.52×	7.79
Estrela & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	17.6%	0.73×	7.79
Gil Vicente FC & over 3.5	12.4%	12.8%	6.2%	2.08×	7.79
Gil Vicente FC & under 1.5	12.2%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Estrela & under 1.5	9.1%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	6.5%	1.22×	12.63
Estrela & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	13.1%	0.60×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	9.6%	0.83×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	9.6%	0.83×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (1UP)	60.4%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Estrela (1UP)	44.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (2UP)	46.3%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Estrela (2UP)	28.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC to win 2nd half	39.5%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	36.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Estrela to win 2nd half	24.1%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.5%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
Gil Vicente FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.0%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Gil Vicente FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.0%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Gil Vicente FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.5%	21.0%	—	—	4.77

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.7%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Estrela under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.6%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Estrela over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.4%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Estrela over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.3%	11.6%	—	—	8.61

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (+2.5)	96.9%	96.3%	89.7%	1.07×	1.04
Gil Vicente FC (+1.5)	89.5%	88.5%	77.8%	1.14×	1.13
Gil Vicente FC (+0.5)	71.9%	73.7%	57.9%	1.27×	1.36
Estrela (+0.5)	53.7%	52.4%	68.6%	0.76×	1.91
Gil Vicente FC (-0.5)	46.3%	47.6%	31.4%	1.51×	2.10
Estrela (-0.5)	28.1%	26.3%	42.1%	0.63×	3.80
Estrela (-1.5)	10.5%	11.5%	22.2%	0.52×	8.68
Estrela (-2.5)	3.1%	3.7%	10.3%	0.36×	27.11

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC to concede	65.4%	72.3%	73.8%	0.98×	1.38
Gil Vicente FC clean sheet	34.6%	27.7%	26.2%	1.06×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC clean sheet in 1st half	63.4%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Gil Vicente FC to concede in 1st half	36.6%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC clean sheet in 2nd half	54.6%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Gil Vicente FC to concede in 2nd half	45.4%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC over 2.5 corners	82.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Gil Vicente FC under 6.5 corners	72.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Gil Vicente FC over 3.5 corners	68.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Gil Vicente FC under 5.5 corners	60.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Gil Vicente FC over 4.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Gil Vicente FC under 4.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Gil Vicente FC over 5.5 corners	39.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Gil Vicente FC under 3.5 corners	31.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Gil Vicente FC over 6.5 corners	27.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Gil Vicente FC under 2.5 corners	17.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC under 3.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Gil Vicente FC under 2.5 goals	82.3%	81.5%	88.8%	0.92×	1.23
Gil Vicente FC over 0.5 goals	76.4%	76.3%	67.6%	1.13×	1.31
Gil Vicente FC under 1.5 goals	57.6%	59.4%	65.3%	0.91×	1.68
Gil Vicente FC over 1.5 goals	42.4%	40.6%	34.7%	1.17×	2.46
Gil Vicente FC under 0.5 goals	23.6%	23.8%	32.4%	0.73×	4.21
Gil Vicente FC over 2.5 goals	17.7%	18.5%	11.2%	1.65×	5.39
Gil Vicente FC over 3.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	4.0%	1.91×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Gil Vicente FC under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Gil Vicente FC over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Gil Vicente FC over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC scores more in 2nd half	40.1%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Gil Vicente FC scores equally in both	37.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Gil Vicente FC scores more in 1st half	23.0%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela (away no bet)	52.4%	51.7%	61.2%	0.84×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	47.6%	48.3%	38.8%	1.25×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC even goals	52.8%	52.6%	58.7%	0.90×	1.90
Gil Vicente FC odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	41.3%	1.15×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.0%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.24

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.8%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.2%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Gil Vicente FC to score 2+ in a row	35.1%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Estrela to score 2+ in a row	21.4%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.2%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Gil Vicente FC to score 3+ in a row	12.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Estrela to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.5%	—	—	18.13

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC corners (+3.5)	92.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Gil Vicente FC corners (+2.5)	88.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Gil Vicente FC corners (+1.5)	81.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Estrela corners (+3.5)	72.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Estrela corners (+2.5)	62.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Estrela corners (+1.5)	50.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Gil Vicente FC corners (-1.5)	49.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Gil Vicente FC corners (-2.5)	37.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Gil Vicente FC corners (-3.5)	27.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Estrela corners (-1.5)	18.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Estrela corners (-2.5)	11.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Estrela corners (-3.5)	7.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	51.6%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	20.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.8%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	79.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	71.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	51.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	48.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	37.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	28.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	20.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 12.5 corners	14.2%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	12.2%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	10.9%	1.05×	8.72
0-2	8.5%	7.4%	5.2%	1.41×	13.51
1-0	9.1%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
0-0	7.8%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.51
2-1	6.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.29
0-3	4.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.45×	58.30
0-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.31
1-3	4.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.29
1-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
2-0	4.6%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.29
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.31
3-0	1.6%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.31
3-1	2.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.31
3-2	1.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	11.13×	58.32
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.32
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
Any other score	2.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (2nd half DNB)	62.1%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Estrela (2nd half DNB)	37.9%	37.2%	—	—	2.69

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC leading at HT (DNB)	57.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Estrela leading at HT (DNB)	42.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela or Gil Vicente FC (12)	74.4%	72.1%	73.3%	0.98×	1.39
Gil Vicente FC or draw (X2)	71.9%	72.1%	57.9%	1.24×	1.39
Estrela or draw (1X)	53.7%	52.6%	68.6%	0.77×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC or draw at HT	76.8%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Estrela or draw at HT	68.7%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Estrela or Gil Vicente FC at HT	54.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC or draw (1UP)	71.9%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Estrela or draw (1UP)	53.7%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC or draw in 2nd half	75.9%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Estrela or Gil Vicente FC in 2nd half	63.6%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Estrela or draw in 2nd half	60.5%	63.9%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.7%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	34.3%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (DNB)	62.2%	62.7%	42.8%	1.47×	1.60
Estrela (DNB)	37.8%	37.3%	57.2%	0.65×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC to score first	53.2%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Estrela to score first	39.1%	32.8%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	7.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.4%	51.3%	52.1%	0.98×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.6%	48.7%	47.9%	1.02×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.1%	41.6%	37.9%	1.10×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	37.5%	38.4%	37.1%	1.03×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.4%	10.9%	1.13×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.3%	8.3%	14.3%	0.58×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.9%	85.6%	86.0%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.1%	14.4%	14.0%	1.03×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.0%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	11.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	4.2%	5.0%	—	—	20.19

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.0%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.0%	16.7%	—	—	6.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.5%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	49.5%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	45.6%	1.03×	2.12
0-1 goals	29.0%	26.6%	26.0%	1.02×	3.76
4-6 goals	22.9%	22.9%	27.7%	0.83×	4.37
7+ goals	1.4%	1.8%	0.9%	1.99×	54.36

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC to score exactly 1	34.1%	33.8%	33.1%	1.02×	2.96
Gil Vicente FC to score exactly 2	24.6%	22.3%	23.6%	0.95×	4.48
Gil Vicente FC to score exactly 0	23.6%	22.3%	32.4%	0.69×	4.48
Gil Vicente FC to score 3+	17.7%	19.6%	11.2%	1.74×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	31.4%	1.13×	2.81
Estrela to score exactly 0	34.6%	32.6%	26.2%	1.24×	3.07
Estrela to score exactly 2	19.5%	18.8%	23.6%	0.80×	5.33
Estrela to score 3+	9.2%	10.3%	19.1%	0.54×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Gil Vicente FC leading at HT	31.3%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Estrela leading at HT	23.2%	20.8%	—	—	4.82

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC -1: 1	53.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Gil Vicente FC -1: X	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Gil Vicente FC -1: 2	22.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (0:1)	71.9%	71.1%	57.9%	1.23×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	17.6%	17.8%	20.0%	0.89×	5.61
Estrela (0:1)	10.5%	13.7%	22.2%	0.62×	7.31

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (0:2)	89.5%	87.1%	77.8%	1.12×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.4%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	13.04
Estrela (0:2)	3.1%	3.7%	10.3%	0.36×	26.69

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (0:3)	96.9%	96.6%	89.7%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	6.0%	0.40×	42.11
Estrela (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	4.5%	0.53×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	95.5%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	82.04
Estrela (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	82.09

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela (1:0)	53.7%	54.1%	68.6%	0.79×	1.85
Draw (1:0)	23.9%	21.7%	17.7%	1.22×	4.61
Gil Vicente FC (1:0)	22.4%	21.7%	13.9%	1.56×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela (2:0)	77.6%	80.5%	86.1%	0.93×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	13.8%	10.3%	7.1%	1.45×	9.71
Gil Vicente FC (2:0)	8.6%	6.4%	6.9%	0.92×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.6%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	25.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela to concede	76.4%	76.1%	67.6%	1.12×	1.32
Estrela clean sheet	23.6%	23.9%	32.4%	0.74×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Estrela to concede in 1st half	43.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela to concede in 2nd half	58.0%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Estrela clean sheet in 2nd half	42.0%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela under 6.5 corners	89.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Estrela under 5.5 corners	82.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Estrela under 4.5 corners	70.2%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Estrela over 2.5 corners	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Estrela under 3.5 corners	54.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Estrela over 3.5 corners	45.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Estrela under 2.5 corners	35.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Estrela over 4.5 corners	29.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Estrela over 5.5 corners	18.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Estrela over 6.5 corners	10.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela under 3.5 goals	97.7%	96.4%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
Estrela under 2.5 goals	90.8%	92.2%	80.9%	1.14×	1.08
Estrela under 1.5 goals	71.3%	74.2%	57.5%	1.29×	1.35
Estrela over 0.5 goals	65.4%	67.9%	73.8%	0.92×	1.47
Estrela under 0.5 goals	34.6%	32.1%	26.2%	1.22×	3.12
Estrela over 1.5 goals	28.7%	25.8%	42.5%	0.61×	3.88
Estrela over 2.5 goals	9.2%	7.8%	19.1%	0.41×	12.87
Estrela over 3.5 goals	2.3%	3.6%	6.5%	0.56×	27.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Estrela under 0.5 in 1st half	63.4%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Estrela over 0.5 in 1st half	36.6%	35.3%	—	—	2.84
Estrela over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	5.3%	—	—	18.90

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela scores equally in both	44.8%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
Estrela scores more in 2nd half	32.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
Estrela scores more in 1st half	22.7%	21.3%	—	—	4.71

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC (home no bet)	64.4%	60.1%	54.1%	1.11×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	35.6%	39.9%	45.9%	0.87×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela even goals	56.0%	55.3%	54.7%	1.01×	1.81
Estrela odd goals	44.0%	44.7%	45.3%	0.99×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.5%	39.0%	—	—	2.57
HT 0-1	20.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 1-0	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	9.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
HT 0-2	5.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-0	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.26

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC at HT / Gil Vicente FC at FT	25.4%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
Draw at HT / Gil Vicente FC at FT	18.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Estrela at HT / Estrela at FT	15.5%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Estrela at FT	11.1%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Estrela at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Gil Vicente FC at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.63
Estrela at HT / Gil Vicente FC at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.69
Gil Vicente FC at HT / Estrela at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC to score last	53.2%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Estrela to score last	39.1%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	7.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Gil Vicente FC to lead by 1 at any time	60.4%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Estrela to lead by 1 at any time	44.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Gil Vicente FC to lead by 2 at any time	28.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Estrela to lead by 2 at any time	15.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Gil Vicente FC to lead by 3 at any time	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Estrela to lead by 3 at any time	4.1%	1.6%	—	—	60.71

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC most corners	61.0%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Estrela most corners	28.0%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.0%	87.4%	89.8%	0.97×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.3%	83.4%	83.1%	1.00×	1.20
2-6 goals	69.6%	68.8%	73.2%	0.94×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.9%	68.8%	65.2%	1.06×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.8%	68.8%	70.3%	0.98×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.0%	63.3%	63.5%	1.00×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	45.6%	1.06×	2.06
1-2 goals	46.5%	48.5%	42.4%	1.14×	2.06
3-6 goals	44.3%	43.6%	50.5%	0.86×	2.29
3-5 goals	41.5%	43.6%	47.6%	0.92×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.8%	35.2%	40.8%	0.86×	2.84
4-6 goals	22.9%	24.5%	27.7%	0.88×	4.08
4-5 goals	20.1%	24.5%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.5%	8.9%	9.9%	0.90×	11.25
7+ goals	1.4%	2.6%	0.9%	2.76×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC never behind	47.8%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Estrela never behind	31.8%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.9%	50.2%	1.01×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.1%	49.8%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	96.1%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.0%	87.6%	89.4%	0.98×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.6%	77.3%	71.5%	1.08×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	71.0%	72.5%	74.0%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	54.2%	52.5%	48.7%	1.08×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	45.8%	47.5%	51.3%	0.93×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	29.0%	27.5%	26.0%	1.06×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	24.4%	22.7%	28.5%	0.80×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	11.0%	12.4%	10.6%	1.17×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	6.5%	1.19×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	3.9%	1.19×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.5%	97.2%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.3%	86.7%	87.1%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.0%	67.5%	63.1%	1.07×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	61.2%	61.9%	66.3%	0.93×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.8%	38.1%	33.7%	1.13×	2.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.0%	32.5%	36.9%	0.88×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.7%	13.3%	12.9%	1.03×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.5%	2.8%	4.1%	0.68×	35.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.8%	1.0%	2.95×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.3%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.48

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.6%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.2%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.8%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela not to score in both halves	83.4%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Gil Vicente FC not to score in both halves	74.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Gil Vicente FC to score in both halves	25.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
Estrela to score in both halves	16.6%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.6%	50.7%	47.9%	1.06×	1.97
Only Gil Vicente FC scores	26.9%	26.0%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Only Estrela scores	15.8%	16.0%	26.0%	0.61×	6.25
Neither team scores	7.8%	7.1%	6.5%	1.10×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.2%	24.9%	22.8%	1.09×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	21.3%	22.6%	19.7%	1.14×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	13.4%	12.1%	18.0%	0.67×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	7.8%	7.6%	6.5%	1.18×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	6.7%	7.6%	6.9%	1.10×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.2%	4.5%	3.9%	1.16×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	35.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.9%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
3+ goals in 1st half	8.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.48

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.1%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
1 goal in 2nd half	34.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	22.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela not to win both halves	94.5%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Gil Vicente FC not to win both halves	87.7%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Gil Vicente FC to win both halves	12.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Estrela to win both halves	5.5%	5.8%	—	—	17.12

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gil Vicente FC to win either half	58.5%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Estrela to win neither half	58.2%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Estrela to win either half	41.8%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Gil Vicente FC to win neither half	41.5%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estrela not to win to nil	84.2%	83.1%	74.0%	1.12×	1.20
Gil Vicente FC not to win to nil	73.1%	75.3%	80.1%	0.94×	1.33
Gil Vicente FC to win to nil	26.9%	24.7%	19.9%	1.24×	4.06
Estrela to win to nil	15.8%	16.9%	26.0%	0.65×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.6%	27.9%	26.7%	1.05×	3.59
Gil Vicente FC by 1	23.9%	24.1%	17.7%	1.36×	4.15
Estrela by 1	17.6%	17.0%	20.0%	0.85×	5.87
Gil Vicente FC by 2	13.8%	11.8%	7.1%	1.66×	8.51
Gil Vicente FC by 3+	8.6%	7.2%	6.9%	1.04×	13.90
Estrela by 2	7.4%	7.2%	12.0%	0.60×	13.91
Estrela by 3+	3.1%	2.7%	10.3%	0.26×	36.81