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Estudiantes de La Plata v Instituto (Córdoba) — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Estudiantes de La Plata win
48.3%
model 47.8%
Draw
29.2%
model 31.5%
Instituto (Córdoba) win
22.5%
model 20.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 17.6%
  2. 0-0 15.6%
  3. 1-1 13.1%
  4. 2-0 10.9%
  5. 0-1 9.8%

Goals

Over 2.529.5% Under 2.570.5%
BTTS yes35.5% BTTS no64.5%
Estudiantes de La Plata 1+70.0% Estudiantes de La Plata 2+33.9%
Instituto (Córdoba) 1+49.8% Instituto (Córdoba) 2+15.2%

Expected goals 1.20 – 0.69. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
23/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 66%
71.9% fair odds 1.39
moderate signal · 1675 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 1.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Estudiantes de La Plata carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1528.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Estudiantes de La Plata have an estimated 48.3% win probability, against 29.2% for the draw and 22.5% for Instituto (Córdoba). Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.20 for Estudiantes de La Plata and 0.69 for Instituto (Córdoba).

Why Estudiantes de La Plata

Estudiantes de La Plata carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1528.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.2%. A combined 1.89 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Instituto (Córdoba) can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Estudiantes de La Plata, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Instituto (Córdoba), so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Estudiantes de La Plata: 64% possession, 18.6 shots a match, 8.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Instituto (Córdoba): 51% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 7.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Estudiantes de La Plata are the model's most likely outcome at 48.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 17.6%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.20–0.69 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.99–0.66 0-0 20% 23% 31%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata to win 41.8% 42.9% 41.8% 1.03× 2.33
Draw 35.1% 36.3% 30.7% 1.18× 2.75
Instituto (Córdoba) to win 23.1% 24.5% 27.6% 0.89× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata & not both score 32.0% 29.6% 27.7% 1.07× 3.38
Draw & not both score 19.8% 18.0% 14.8% 1.21× 5.56
Instituto (Córdoba) & not both score 17.4% 18.0% 17.1% 1.05× 5.57
Draw & both teams score 15.3% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.57
Estudiantes de La Plata & both teams score 9.8% 8.3% 14.3% 0.59× 11.99
Instituto (Córdoba) & both teams score 5.8% 8.3% 10.6% 0.79× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata & under 3.5 37.2% 34.9% 34.8% 1.00× 2.87
Draw & under 2.5 32.9% 30.8% 28.2% 1.09× 3.25
Draw & under 3.5 32.9% 30.8% 28.2% 1.09× 3.25
Estudiantes de La Plata & under 2.5 27.9% 26.1% 23.6% 1.10× 3.84
Estudiantes de La Plata & over 1.5 23.3% 21.6% 27.8% 0.78× 4.63
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 3.5 21.3% 21.6% 23.5% 0.92× 4.63
Draw & under 1.5 19.8% 18.0% 14.8% 1.21× 5.55
Estudiantes de La Plata & under 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 14.1% 1.27× 5.55
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 2.5 16.3% 18.0% 14.6% 1.23× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.3% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.56
Estudiantes de La Plata & over 2.5 13.8% 12.8% 18.4% 0.70× 7.79
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 1.5 12.1% 12.8% 10.3% 1.25× 7.79
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 1.5 11.0% 12.8% 17.4% 0.74× 7.79
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 2.5 6.8% 7.9% 13.1% 0.60× 12.63
Estudiantes de La Plata & over 3.5 4.5% 4.8% 7.2% 0.67× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 2.2% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.83
Draw & over 3.5 2.2% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.83
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 3.5 1.8% 4.8% 4.2% 1.14× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (1UP) 51.7% 52.3% — — 1.91
Instituto (Córdoba) (1UP) 34.3% 33.1% — — 3.02
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (2UP) 41.8% 47.0% — — 2.13
Instituto (Córdoba) (2UP) 23.1% 23.8% — — 4.20
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 47.8% 45.2% — — 2.21
Estudiantes de La Plata to win 2nd half 31.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
Instituto (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 20.4% 24.2% — — 4.13
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 2nd half 94.0% 92.0% — — 1.09
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 2nd half 67.4% 69.6% — — 1.44
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 2nd half 32.6% 30.4% — — 3.29
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 2nd half 6.0% 8.1% — — 12.42
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata under 1.5 in 2nd half 89.0% 89.0% — — 1.12
Estudiantes de La Plata under 0.5 in 2nd half 56.9% 58.0% — — 1.73
Estudiantes de La Plata over 0.5 in 2nd half 43.1% 42.0% — — 2.38
Estudiantes de La Plata over 1.5 in 2nd half 11.0% 11.0% — — 9.06
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (+2.5) 95.3% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Instituto (Córdoba) (+1.5) 83.6% 82.6% 82.3% 1.00× 1.21
Estudiantes de La Plata (+0.5) 76.9% 78.5% 72.4% 1.08× 1.27
Instituto (Córdoba) (+0.5) 58.2% 57.1% 58.2% 0.98× 1.75
Estudiantes de La Plata (-0.5) 41.8% 42.9% 41.8% 1.03× 2.33
Instituto (Córdoba) (-0.5) 23.1% 21.5% 27.6% 0.78× 4.65
Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5) 16.4% 17.4% 17.7% 0.99× 5.74
Estudiantes de La Plata (-2.5) 4.7% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 27.03
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede 62.8% 67.6% 68.2% 0.99× 1.48
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet 37.2% 32.4% 31.8% 1.02× 3.09
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 65.4% 71.0% — — 1.41
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 34.6% 29.0% — — 3.45
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet in 2nd half 56.9% 57.3% — — 1.75
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede in 2nd half 43.1% 42.7% — — 2.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 84.4% 81.4% — — 1.23
Instituto (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 74.5% 71.6% — — 1.40
Instituto (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 73.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Instituto (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 60.8% 61.7% — — 1.62
Instituto (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 55.9% 57.2% — — 1.75
Instituto (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 44.1% 42.8% — — 2.34
Instituto (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 39.2% 38.3% — — 2.61
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 26.7% 28.4% — — 3.53
Instituto (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 25.5% 28.4% — — 3.53
Instituto (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 15.6% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 97.1% 97.5% 93.4% 1.04× 1.03
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 85.9% 87.8% 78.2% 1.12× 1.14
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 51.8% 53.5% 42.4% 1.26× 1.87
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 48.2% 46.5% 57.6% 0.81× 2.15
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 14.1% 12.2% 21.8% 0.56× 8.19
Instituto (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 2.9% 2.5% 6.6% 0.38× 39.82
Instituto (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.5% 1.1% 2.20× 39.95
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 97.1% 96.2% — — 1.04
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 76.9% 75.0% — — 1.33
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 23.1% 25.0% — — 4.00
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 2.9% 3.8% — — 26.33
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) scores equally in both 57.3% 53.3% — — 1.88
Instituto (Córdoba) scores more in 2nd half 26.3% 26.5% — — 3.78
Instituto (Córdoba) scores more in 1st half 16.4% 17.9% — — 5.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (away no bet) 54.3% 51.7% 57.7% 0.90× 1.93
Draw (away no bet) 45.7% 48.3% 42.3% 1.14× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) even goals 63.4% 59.1% 58.4% 1.01× 1.69
Instituto (Córdoba) odd goals 36.6% 40.9% 41.6% 0.98× 2.45
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 96.2% 96.3% — — 1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals 3.8% 3.7% — — 27.12
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 63.4% 57.6% — — 1.74
Not both halves under 1.5 36.6% 42.4% — — 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 32.2% 28.9% — — 3.46
Estudiantes de La Plata to score 2+ in a row 22.5% 19.5% — — 5.12
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 11.1% 12.1% — — 8.25
Either team to score 3+ in a row 7.9% 5.5% — — 18.15
Estudiantes de La Plata to score 3+ in a row 6.0% 5.5% — — 18.30
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 1.9% 2.5% — — 39.78
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (+3.5) 88.2% 84.5% — — 1.18
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (+2.5) 81.5% 79.8% — — 1.25
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 80.9% 79.8% — — 1.25
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (+1.5) 72.7% 70.8% — — 1.41
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 72.2% 70.8% — — 1.41
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 61.6% 61.9% — — 1.62
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (-1.5) 38.4% 38.1% — — 2.62
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (-2.5) 27.8% 29.2% — — 3.42
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 27.3% 29.2% — — 3.42
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (-3.5) 19.1% 20.2% — — 4.94
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 18.5% 20.2% — — 4.95
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 11.8% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 49.8% 41.8% — — 2.39
9-11 corners 29.1% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 21.1% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.3% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 78.9% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 70.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 61.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 60.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 50.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 49.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 39.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 38.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 29.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 21.1% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 14.7% 16.9% — — 5.91
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-0 19.8% 13.9% 14.8% 0.93× 7.22
1-0 18.5% 13.8% 14.1% 0.98× 7.22
1-1 13.1% 11.5% 13.5% 0.85× 8.71
0-1 12.1% 11.5% 10.3% 1.12× 8.71
2-0 9.4% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.51
2-1 6.2% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
0-2 4.2% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.30
0-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.84× 58.31
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 3.01× 58.32
1-2 4.1% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.30
1-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.31
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
2-2 2.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
3-0 3.1% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.30
3-1 2.0% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
3-2 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.32
3-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.50× 58.31
4-1 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.15× 58.32
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
Any other score 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (2nd half DNB) 61.0% 62.8% — — 1.59
Instituto (Córdoba) (2nd half DNB) 39.0% 37.2% — — 2.69
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata leading at HT (DNB) 63.8% 66.6% — — 1.50
Instituto (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 36.2% 33.4% — — 3.00
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata or draw (1X) 76.9% 75.5% 72.4% 1.04× 1.32
Estudiantes de La Plata or Instituto (Córdoba) (12) 64.9% 63.7% 69.3% 0.92× 1.57
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw (X2) 58.2% 57.1% 58.2% 0.98× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata or draw at HT 84.1% 84.2% — — 1.19
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw at HT 72.1% 74.5% — — 1.34
Estudiantes de La Plata or Instituto (Córdoba) at HT 43.8% 43.4% — — 2.30
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata or draw (1UP) 76.9% 83.6% — — 1.20
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 58.2% 63.1% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata or draw in 2nd half 79.6% 75.8% — — 1.32
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 68.1% 66.0% — — 1.52
Estudiantes de La Plata or Instituto (Córdoba) in 2nd half 52.2% 54.8% — — 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 76.6% 77.1% — — 1.30
Neither half drawn 23.4% 22.9% — — 4.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (DNB) 64.4% 62.7% 60.3% 1.04× 1.59
Instituto (Córdoba) (DNB) 35.6% 37.3% 39.7% 0.94× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata to score first 48.1% 45.9% — — 2.18
Instituto (Córdoba) to score first 32.0% 27.7% — — 3.61
No goal scored 19.8% 18.9% — — 5.29
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 69.2% 58.5% 59.4% 0.98× 1.71
Both teams to score 30.8% 41.5% 40.6% 1.02× 2.41
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 64.0% 50.5% 52.8% 0.96× 1.98
Both score & over 2.5 17.7% 21.5% 27.3% 0.79× 4.65
Both score & under 2.5 13.1% 12.4% 13.5% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 5.1% 8.3% 6.7% 1.23× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 96.3% 91.6% 94.1% 0.97× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 3.7% 8.4% 5.9% 1.41× 11.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 85.8% 86.1% — — 1.16
Both teams to score in 2nd half 14.2% 13.9% — — 7.19
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 78.8% 76.8% — — 1.30
Both score 2nd half only 13.1% 10.7% — — 9.31
Both score 1st half only 7.0% 6.8% — — 14.76
Both score in both halves 1.1% 4.8% — — 20.96
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 91.9% 92.1% — — 1.09
Both teams to score by HT 8.1% 7.9% — — 12.63
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 69.0% 65.6% — — 1.53
A goal in each half 31.0% 34.4% — — 2.91
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 41.0% 42.2% 47.3% 0.89× 2.37
0-1 goals 50.4% 41.2% 39.0% 1.06× 2.43
4-6 goals 8.4% 7.6% 13.5% 0.57× 13.09
7+ goals 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 4.02× 54.55
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 51.8% 47.1% 42.4% 1.11× 2.12
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 34.1% 33.8% 35.9% 0.94× 2.96
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 11.2% 12.9% 15.3% 0.84× 7.77
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 3+ 2.9% 4.6% 6.6% 0.69× 21.88
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata to score exactly 0 37.2% 35.5% 31.8% 1.12× 2.81
Estudiantes de La Plata to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.5% 36.5% 0.97× 2.81
Estudiantes de La Plata to score exactly 2 18.2% 18.8% 21.8% 0.86× 5.32
Estudiantes de La Plata to score 3+ 7.8% 10.3% 10.1% 1.02× 9.66
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 56.2% 56.6% — — 1.77
Estudiantes de La Plata leading at HT 27.9% 25.5% — — 3.92
Instituto (Córdoba) leading at HT 15.9% 15.8% — — 6.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata -1: 2 58.2% 56.8% — — 1.76
Estudiantes de La Plata -1: X 25.4% 26.5% — — 3.77
Estudiantes de La Plata -1: 1 16.4% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:1) 58.2% 55.9% 58.2% 0.96× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 25.4% 27.0% 24.3% 1.11× 3.70
Estudiantes de La Plata (0:1) 16.4% 17.8% 17.7% 1.01× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:2) 83.6% 83.0% 82.3% 1.01× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.6% 11.0% 12.8% 0.86× 9.10
Estudiantes de La Plata (0:2) 4.7% 3.8% 5.0% 0.75× 26.62
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:3) 95.3% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.6% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 41.98
Estudiantes de La Plata (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 1.7% 1.39× 42.09
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:4) 98.9% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.97× 81.87
Estudiantes de La Plata (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 2.14× 81.95
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (1:0) 76.9% 78.5% 72.4% 1.08× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 16.7% 17.1% 18.6% 0.92× 5.85
Instituto (Córdoba) (1:0) 6.4% 6.9% 9.1% 0.76× 14.51
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (2:0) 93.6% 94.0% 90.9% 1.03× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 5.2% 6.4% 6.3% 1.02× 15.68
Instituto (Córdoba) (2:0) 1.3% 2.3% 3.0% 0.77× 43.85
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 40.0% 44.5% — — 2.25
Halves equal 35.1% 35.1% — — 2.85
1st half highest scoring 24.9% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata clean sheet 51.8% 53.1% 42.4% 1.25× 1.88
Estudiantes de La Plata to concede 48.2% 46.9% 57.6% 0.81× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata clean sheet in 1st half 76.9% 77.6% — — 1.29
Estudiantes de La Plata to concede in 1st half 23.1% 22.4% — — 4.47
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata clean sheet in 2nd half 67.4% 66.8% — — 1.50
Estudiantes de La Plata to concede in 2nd half 32.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata over 2.5 corners 79.4% 76.5% — — 1.31
Estudiantes de La Plata under 6.5 corners 78.0% 76.5% — — 1.31
Estudiantes de La Plata under 5.5 corners 66.5% 66.7% — — 1.50
Estudiantes de La Plata over 3.5 corners 64.0% 62.3% — — 1.61
Estudiantes de La Plata under 4.5 corners 52.1% 52.6% — — 1.90
Estudiantes de La Plata over 4.5 corners 47.9% 47.4% — — 2.11
Estudiantes de La Plata under 3.5 corners 36.0% 37.7% — — 2.65
Estudiantes de La Plata over 5.5 corners 33.5% 33.3% — — 3.01
Estudiantes de La Plata over 6.5 corners 22.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Estudiantes de La Plata under 2.5 corners 20.6% 23.5% — — 4.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata under 3.5 goals 98.2% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Estudiantes de La Plata under 2.5 goals 92.2% 92.2% 89.9% 1.03× 1.09
Estudiantes de La Plata under 1.5 goals 74.0% 74.2% 68.2% 1.09× 1.35
Estudiantes de La Plata over 0.5 goals 62.8% 63.6% 68.2% 0.93× 1.57
Estudiantes de La Plata under 0.5 goals 37.2% 36.4% 31.8% 1.14× 2.75
Estudiantes de La Plata over 1.5 goals 26.0% 25.8% 31.8% 0.81× 3.88
Estudiantes de La Plata over 2.5 goals 7.8% 7.8% 10.1% 0.77× 12.83
Estudiantes de La Plata over 3.5 goals 1.8% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.61
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata under 1.5 in 1st half 93.2% 94.8% — — 1.06
Estudiantes de La Plata under 0.5 in 1st half 65.4% 69.2% — — 1.45
Estudiantes de La Plata over 0.5 in 1st half 34.6% 30.8% — — 3.25
Estudiantes de La Plata over 1.5 in 1st half 6.8% 5.2% — — 19.26
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata scores equally in both 46.7% 47.2% — — 2.12
Estudiantes de La Plata scores more in 2nd half 31.3% 33.2% — — 3.02
Estudiantes de La Plata scores more in 1st half 22.0% 21.0% — — 4.77
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 60.3% 60.0% 52.6% 1.14× 1.67
Instituto (Córdoba) (home no bet) 39.7% 40.0% 47.4% 0.85× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata even goals 56.9% 55.3% 55.6% 0.99× 1.81
Estudiantes de La Plata odd goals 43.1% 44.7% 44.4% 1.01× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 50.3% 49.1% — — 2.04
HT 1-0 21.3% 24.4% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 13.1% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 1-1 5.7% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 2-0 4.5% 2.4% — — 42.12
HT 0-2 1.7% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT 2-1 1.2% 2.4% — — 42.34
Any other HT score 1.2% 2.4% — — 42.34
HT 1-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT 2-2 0.2% 2.4% — — 42.41
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 27.4% 27.4% — — 3.66
Estudiantes de La Plata at HT / Estudiantes de La Plata at FT 23.0% 21.6% — — 4.62
Draw at HT / Estudiantes de La Plata at FT 17.6% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 11.2% 12.7% — — 7.90
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 11.1% 12.7% — — 7.90
Estudiantes de La Plata at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% — — 28.89
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 3.6% 3.5% — — 28.90
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Estudiantes de La Plata at FT 1.1% 3.4% — — 29.00
Estudiantes de La Plata at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 0.9% 3.4% — — 29.01
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata to score last 48.2% 46.4% — — 2.16
Instituto (Córdoba) to score last 32.0% 32.4% — — 3.09
No goal scored 19.8% 14.9% — — 6.71
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 80.2% 87.3% — — 1.15
Estudiantes de La Plata to lead by 1 at any time 51.7% 50.6% — — 1.98
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 34.3% 29.8% — — 3.36
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 27.7% 25.3% — — 3.96
Estudiantes de La Plata to lead by 2 at any time 19.2% 14.9% — — 6.73
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 8.5% 6.7% — — 14.99
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 7.0% 6.6% — — 15.06
Estudiantes de La Plata to lead by 3 at any time 5.4% 6.6% — — 15.13
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 1.6% 1.6% — — 63.72
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata most corners 50.1% 51.6% — — 1.94
Instituto (Córdoba) most corners 38.1% 39.4% — — 2.54
Corners level 11.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 79.5% 78.7% 84.3% 0.93× 1.27
1-4 goals 77.5% 78.7% 79.9% 0.98× 1.27
1-3 goals 71.6% 72.3% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
1-2 goals 57.3% 59.1% 51.4% 1.15× 1.69
2-6 goals 49.4% 48.5% 60.7% 0.80× 2.06
2-5 goals 48.9% 48.4% 60.1% 0.81× 2.06
2-4 goals 46.9% 48.4% 55.8% 0.87× 2.06
2-3 goals 41.0% 43.6% 47.3% 0.92× 2.29
3-6 goals 22.7% 24.5% 33.5% 0.73× 4.09
3-5 goals 22.2% 24.4% 33.0% 0.74× 4.09
3-4 goals 20.2% 24.4% 28.6% 0.85× 4.09
4-6 goals 8.4% 8.9% 13.5% 0.66× 11.26
4-5 goals 7.9% 8.9% 12.9% 0.69× 11.26
5-6 goals 2.5% 2.6% 5.0% 0.51× 39.16
7+ goals 0.2% 2.5% 0.5% 5.58× 39.26
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata never behind 45.9% 56.6% — — 1.77
Instituto (Córdoba) never behind 28.5% 29.9% — — 3.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.0% 50.9% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.0% 49.1% 51.1% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 62.8% 60.3% — — 1.66
Odd goals in 1st half 37.2% 39.7% — — 2.52
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 57.7% 60.6% — — 1.65
Odd goals in 2nd half 42.3% 39.4% — — 2.54
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.3% 95.4% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 97.4% 95.4% 94.6% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 86.2% 1.07× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 80.2% 82.3% 85.2% 0.97× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 77.1% 77.3% 66.1% 1.17× 1.29
Under 1.5 goals 50.4% 52.5% 39.0% 1.35× 1.91
Over 1.5 goals 49.6% 47.5% 61.0% 0.78× 2.11
Over 2.5 goals 22.9% 22.7% 33.9% 0.67× 4.40
Under 0.5 goals 19.8% 17.7% 14.8% 1.19× 5.65
Over 3.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 13.8% 0.56× 12.93
Over 4.5 goals 2.6% 4.6% 5.4% 0.85× 21.83
Over 5.5 goals 0.7% 4.6% 1.0% 4.46× 21.87
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.8% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 99.3% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 97.2% 97.2% 94.1% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 90.0% 92.4% 82.7% 1.12× 1.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 68.8% 67.5% 53.5% 1.26× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 31.2% 32.5% 46.5% 0.70× 3.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 10.0% 7.6% 17.3% 0.44× 13.17
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 2.8% 2.8% 5.9% 0.48× 35.61
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 0.7% 2.8% 1.1% 2.61× 35.67
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.2% 2.8% 0.5% 6.11× 35.69
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 96.7% 97.3% — — 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 84.7% 85.8% — — 1.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half 50.3% 52.9% — — 1.89
Over 0.5 in 1st half 49.7% 47.1% — — 2.12
Over 1.5 in 1st half 15.3% 14.2% — — 7.04
Over 2.5 in 1st half 3.3% 2.7% — — 37.40
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 92.7% 90.6% — — 1.10
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.9% 77.8% — — 1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.5% 61.4% — — 1.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.5% 38.6% — — 2.59
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.1% 22.2% — — 4.51
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 7.3% 9.4% — — 10.61
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 92.5% 90.6% — — 1.10
Estudiantes de La Plata not to score in both halves 85.1% 85.4% — — 1.17
Estudiantes de La Plata to score in both halves 14.9% 14.6% — — 6.87
Instituto (Córdoba) to score in both halves 7.5% 9.4% — — 10.61
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Estudiantes de La Plata scores 32.0% 33.3% 27.7% 1.20× 3.01
Both teams score 30.8% 33.3% 40.6% 0.82× 3.01
Neither team scores 19.8% 16.1% 14.8% 1.08× 6.23
Only Instituto (Córdoba) scores 17.4% 16.0% 17.1% 0.94× 6.24
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 30.6% 25.3% 24.3% 1.04× 3.95
Exactly 2 goals 26.7% 24.9% 27.3% 0.91× 4.02
Exactly 0 goals 19.8% 17.5% 14.8% 1.18× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 14.3% 12.1% 20.2% 0.60× 8.25
Exactly 4 goals 5.9% 7.6% 8.6% 0.89× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 1.9% 4.5% 4.4% 1.01× 22.37
6 or more goals 0.7% 4.5% 1.0% 4.35× 22.39
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 50.3% 49.1% — — 2.04
1 goal in 1st half 34.4% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 12.0% 10.8% — — 9.22
3+ goals in 1st half 3.3% 2.7% — — 37.40
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 2nd half 38.5% 40.0% — — 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 36.4% 39.7% — — 2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half 25.1% 29.0% — — 3.44
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) not to win both halves 96.7% 97.2% — — 1.03
Estudiantes de La Plata not to win both halves 91.0% 94.1% — — 1.06
Estudiantes de La Plata to win both halves 9.0% 5.9% — — 17.01
Instituto (Córdoba) to win both halves 3.3% 2.8% — — 35.88
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to win neither half 67.1% 67.9% — — 1.47
Estudiantes de La Plata to win either half 50.8% 54.3% — — 1.84
Estudiantes de La Plata to win neither half 49.2% 45.7% — — 2.19
Instituto (Córdoba) to win either half 32.9% 32.1% — — 3.11
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) not to win to nil 82.6% 83.1% 82.9% 1.00× 1.20
Estudiantes de La Plata not to win to nil 68.0% 69.7% 72.3% 0.96× 1.44
Estudiantes de La Plata to win to nil 32.0% 30.3% 27.7% 1.09× 3.30
Instituto (Córdoba) to win to nil 17.4% 16.9% 17.1% 0.99× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 35.1% 34.6% 30.7% 1.13× 2.89
Estudiantes de La Plata by 1 25.4% 27.9% 24.3% 1.15× 3.59
Instituto (Córdoba) by 1 16.7% 17.0% 18.6% 0.92× 5.87
Estudiantes de La Plata by 2 11.6% 11.8% 12.8% 0.92× 8.51
Instituto (Córdoba) by 2 5.2% 7.2% 6.3% 1.15× 13.92
Estudiantes de La Plata by 3+ 4.7% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.82
Instituto (Córdoba) by 3+ 1.3% 2.7% 3.0% 0.91× 36.93
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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