Étoile Carouge v Winterthur — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · SUI-Challenge League · 2627

SUI-Challenge League results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Étoile Carouge

0–1

18:15 UTC

Winterthur

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 7h before kick-off

Étoile Carouge win

28.3%

model 26.9%

Draw

28.3%

model 28.6%

Winterthur win

43.4%

model 44.4%

282843

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.6%
1-2 9.3%
0-0 8.0%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.9%	Under 2.5	47.1%
BTTS yes	57.6%	BTTS no	42.4%
Étoile Carouge 1+	70.0%	Étoile Carouge 2+	33.8%
Winterthur 1+	79.6%	Winterthur 2+	47.2%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.59. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

25/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

90%

★ Best pick

Draw (away no bet)

Away no bet · usually 34%

52.3% fair odds 1.91

strong signal · 3619 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 82%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 6860 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

They have had 30 days' rest to Étoile Carouge's 14.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Étoile Carouge have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Winterthur have an estimated 43.4% win probability, against 28.3% for the draw and 28.3% for Étoile Carouge. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.20 for Étoile Carouge and 1.59 for Winterthur.

Why Étoile Carouge

Étoile Carouge carry the stronger rating, 1500 Elo against 1385. At home Étoile Carouge average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.3%.

Why Winterthur can win

They have had 30 days' rest to Étoile Carouge's 14.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Étoile Carouge, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Winterthur, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Étoile Carouge: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Winterthur: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Winterthur are the model's most likely outcome at 43.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. Confidence 25/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	272944	1.20–1.59	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	303040	1.26–1.48	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	192754	0.98–1.76	1-1 13%	52%	53%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur to win	54.1%	51.1%	33.2%	1.54×	1.96
Draw	27.0%	27.7%	22.6%	1.23×	3.61
Étoile Carouge to win	18.9%	19.4%	44.7%	0.43×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur & not both score	29.4%	25.5%	14.3%	1.78×	3.93
Winterthur & both teams score	24.7%	21.8%	19.4%	1.13×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	18.0%	16.6%	1.09×	5.55
Étoile Carouge & both teams score	10.0%	13.2%	22.6%	0.59×	7.55
Étoile Carouge & not both score	8.9%	8.4%	22.6%	0.37×	11.96
Draw & not both score	8.3%	8.4%	6.5%	1.30×	11.96

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur & over 1.5	44.5%	40.1%	29.5%	1.36×	2.50
Winterthur & under 3.5	35.3%	34.7%	21.2%	1.63×	2.89
Winterthur & over 2.5	34.5%	31.1%	23.0%	1.35×	3.22
Draw & under 2.5	21.2%	21.6%	14.7%	1.47×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.2%	21.6%	14.7%	1.47×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.57
Winterthur & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	10.6%	1.69×	5.57
Winterthur & over 3.5	18.7%	18.0%	12.4%	1.44×	5.57
Étoile Carouge & over 1.5	14.4%	12.9%	36.4%	0.35×	7.78
Étoile Carouge & under 3.5	14.0%	12.9%	30.4%	0.42×	7.78
Étoile Carouge & over 2.5	11.3%	12.9%	30.4%	0.42×	7.78
Winterthur & under 1.5	9.6%	8.0%	4.1%	1.92×	12.57
Étoile Carouge & under 2.5	7.6%	8.0%	14.7%	0.54×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	8.3%	8.0%	6.5%	1.23×	12.57
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	8.0%	8.3%	0.96×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	8.0%	8.3%	0.96×	12.57
Étoile Carouge & over 3.5	4.9%	4.9%	14.7%	0.33×	20.57
Étoile Carouge & under 1.5	4.5%	4.9%	8.8%	0.56×	20.57

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (1UP)	68.0%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Étoile Carouge (1UP)	37.2%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (2UP)	54.1%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Étoile Carouge (2UP)	18.9%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur to win 2nd half	46.8%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	34.7%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Étoile Carouge to win 2nd half	18.5%	19.1%	—	—	5.23

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.4%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Winterthur over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.3%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Winterthur under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.7%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Winterthur over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.6%	24.9%	—	—	4.01

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.2%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Étoile Carouge under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.3%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Étoile Carouge over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.7%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Étoile Carouge over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.8%	11.9%	—	—	8.42

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (+2.5)	98.1%	96.3%	88.5%	1.09×	1.04
Winterthur (+1.5)	92.8%	92.1%	78.8%	1.17×	1.09
Winterthur (+0.5)	81.1%	82.6%	55.3%	1.49×	1.21
Winterthur (-0.5)	54.1%	52.1%	33.2%	1.57×	1.92
Étoile Carouge (+0.5)	45.9%	47.9%	66.8%	0.72×	2.09
Étoile Carouge (-0.5)	18.9%	17.4%	44.7%	0.39×	5.74
Étoile Carouge (-1.5)	7.2%	7.9%	21.2%	0.37×	12.70
Étoile Carouge (-2.5)	1.9%	3.7%	11.5%	0.32×	26.92

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur to concede	62.3%	67.9%	79.7%	0.85×	1.47
Winterthur clean sheet	37.7%	32.1%	20.3%	1.58×	3.12

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur clean sheet in 1st half	65.7%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Winterthur to concede in 1st half	34.3%	30.9%	—	—	3.24

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur clean sheet in 2nd half	57.3%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Winterthur to concede in 2nd half	42.7%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur under 3.5 goals	89.7%	87.9%	93.5%	0.94×	1.14
Winterthur over 0.5 goals	82.9%	81.3%	71.4%	1.14×	1.23
Winterthur under 2.5 goals	74.0%	71.9%	82.9%	0.87×	1.39
Winterthur over 1.5 goals	52.6%	53.6%	43.3%	1.24×	1.87
Winterthur under 1.5 goals	47.4%	46.4%	56.7%	0.82×	2.15
Winterthur over 2.5 goals	26.0%	28.1%	17.1%	1.65×	3.56
Winterthur under 0.5 goals	17.1%	18.7%	28.6%	0.66×	5.34
Winterthur over 3.5 goals	10.3%	12.1%	6.5%	1.87×	8.27

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur under 1.5 in 1st half	84.2%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Winterthur over 0.5 in 1st half	50.6%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Winterthur under 0.5 in 1st half	49.4%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Winterthur over 1.5 in 1st half	15.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.94

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur scores more in 2nd half	43.4%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Winterthur scores equally in both	32.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Winterthur scores more in 1st half	24.1%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	58.9%	57.4%	33.6%	1.71×	1.74
Étoile Carouge (away no bet)	41.1%	42.6%	66.4%	0.64×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur even goals	51.5%	52.8%	58.5%	0.90×	1.90
Winterthur odd goals	48.5%	47.2%	41.5%	1.14×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.1%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.9%	12.5%	—	—	8.03

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.1%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.9%	31.7%	—	—	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.5%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Winterthur to score 2+ in a row	45.1%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.3%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Winterthur to score 3+ in a row	18.7%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Étoile Carouge to score 2+ in a row	17.8%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Étoile Carouge to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.25

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.9%	11.4%	8.8%	1.30×	8.80
0-2	10.0%	11.4%	6.9%	1.64×	8.80
0-1	9.6%	7.4%	4.1%	1.78×	13.52
1-2	9.8%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.52
0-0	8.3%	7.4%	6.5%	1.15×	13.53
0-3	5.9%	7.4%	3.2%	2.29×	13.53
1-3	5.8%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.53
2-1	5.4%	7.4%	12.0%	0.62×	13.53
0-4	2.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	57.67
1-0	4.5%	1.7%	8.8%	0.20×	57.66
1-4	2.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	57.67
2-0	3.1%	1.7%	6.5%	0.27×	57.66
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	57.66
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	57.67
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	57.67
3-0	1.0%	1.7%	4.6%	0.38×	57.67
3-1	1.8%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	57.67
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	57.67
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	57.67
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	57.68
4-0	0.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	57.68
4-1	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	57.68
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	57.68
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	57.68
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	57.68
Any other score	3.7%	1.7%	7.4%	0.24×	57.66

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (2nd half DNB)	71.6%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Étoile Carouge (2nd half DNB)	28.4%	31.9%	—	—	3.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur leading at HT (DNB)	66.3%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
Étoile Carouge leading at HT (DNB)	33.7%	26.8%	—	—	3.74

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur or draw (X2)	81.1%	80.6%	55.3%	1.46×	1.24
Étoile Carouge or Winterthur (12)	73.0%	72.3%	77.4%	0.93×	1.38
Étoile Carouge or draw (1X)	45.9%	48.9%	66.8%	0.73×	2.04

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur or draw at HT	80.9%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Étoile Carouge or draw at HT	62.5%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Étoile Carouge or Winterthur at HT	56.6%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur or draw (1UP)	81.1%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Étoile Carouge or draw (1UP)	45.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur or draw in 2nd half	81.5%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Étoile Carouge or Winterthur in 2nd half	65.3%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Étoile Carouge or draw in 2nd half	53.2%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.0%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	39.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (DNB)	74.1%	71.2%	42.6%	1.67×	1.41
Étoile Carouge (DNB)	25.9%	28.8%	57.4%	0.50×	3.47

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur to score first	59.0%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Étoile Carouge to score first	32.7%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
No goal scored	8.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.5%	51.6%	57.6%	0.90×	1.94
Not both teams to score	46.5%	48.4%	42.4%	1.14×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.5%	41.7%	49.3%	0.85×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.4%	38.6%	30.9%	1.25×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	12.3%	8.8%	1.40×	8.16
Not both score & over 2.5	11.1%	12.3%	12.0%	1.02×	8.16

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.6%	85.4%	81.6%	1.05×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.4%	14.6%	18.4%	0.79×	6.87

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.7%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.7%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	4.8%	5.1%	—	—	19.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.3%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.7%	17.6%	—	—	5.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.0%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	45.0%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.2%	46.9%	47.5%	0.99×	2.13
4-6 goals	27.3%	27.0%	30.4%	0.89×	3.71
0-1 goals	22.3%	23.0%	18.4%	1.25×	4.34
7+ goals	2.2%	1.9%	4.6%	0.40×	53.99

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur to score exactly 1	30.2%	33.6%	28.6%	1.18×	2.97
Winterthur to score exactly 2	26.7%	27.6%	26.7%	1.03×	3.62
Winterthur to score 3+	26.0%	27.6%	17.1%	1.62×	3.62
Winterthur to score exactly 0	17.1%	19.5%	28.6%	0.68×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge to score exactly 0	37.7%	35.5%	20.3%	1.75×	2.81
Étoile Carouge to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.5%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
Étoile Carouge to score exactly 2	17.9%	19.2%	26.3%	0.73×	5.22
Étoile Carouge to score 3+	7.6%	10.5%	22.6%	0.46×	9.56

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.4%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Winterthur leading at HT	37.5%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Étoile Carouge leading at HT	19.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur -1: 1	45.9%	47.3%	—	—	2.12
Winterthur -1: 2	31.4%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Winterthur -1: X	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (0:1)	81.1%	77.2%	55.3%	1.40×	1.30
Draw (0:1)	11.7%	13.9%	24.0%	0.58×	7.18
Étoile Carouge (0:1)	7.2%	9.1%	21.2%	0.43×	10.98

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (0:2)	92.8%	91.0%	78.8%	1.15×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	5.3%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	13.03
Étoile Carouge (0:2)	1.9%	3.8%	11.5%	0.33×	26.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (0:3)	98.1%	96.6%	88.5%	1.09×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	6.9%	0.34×	42.39
Étoile Carouge (0:3)	0.4%	2.4%	5.1%	0.46×	42.44

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (0:4)	99.6%	98.1%	94.9%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	81.79
Étoile Carouge (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	81.82

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge (1:0)	45.9%	50.9%	66.8%	0.76×	1.96
Winterthur (1:0)	31.4%	28.9%	19.4%	1.49×	3.46
Draw (1:0)	22.6%	21.7%	14.3%	1.52×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge (2:0)	68.6%	72.6%	80.6%	0.90×	1.38
Draw (2:0)	17.2%	15.5%	14.3%	1.08×	6.47
Winterthur (2:0)	14.2%	10.4%	5.5%	1.88×	9.60

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.2%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	25.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge to concede	82.9%	80.9%	71.4%	1.13×	1.24
Étoile Carouge clean sheet	17.1%	19.1%	28.6%	0.67×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge to concede in 1st half	50.6%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Étoile Carouge clean sheet in 1st half	49.4%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge to concede in 2nd half	65.3%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Étoile Carouge clean sheet in 2nd half	34.7%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge under 3.5 goals	98.2%	96.3%	90.3%	1.07×	1.04
Étoile Carouge under 2.5 goals	92.4%	92.1%	77.4%	1.19×	1.09
Étoile Carouge under 1.5 goals	74.5%	74.3%	51.6%	1.44×	1.35
Étoile Carouge over 0.5 goals	62.3%	63.3%	79.7%	0.79×	1.58
Étoile Carouge under 0.5 goals	37.7%	36.7%	20.3%	1.81×	2.73
Étoile Carouge over 1.5 goals	25.5%	25.7%	48.4%	0.53×	3.89
Étoile Carouge over 2.5 goals	7.6%	7.9%	22.6%	0.35×	12.70
Étoile Carouge over 3.5 goals	1.8%	3.7%	9.7%	0.38×	27.05

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge under 1.5 in 1st half	93.3%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Étoile Carouge under 0.5 in 1st half	65.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Étoile Carouge over 0.5 in 1st half	34.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Étoile Carouge over 1.5 in 1st half	6.7%	4.5%	—	—	22.10

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge scores equally in both	47.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Étoile Carouge scores more in 2nd half	31.1%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Étoile Carouge scores more in 1st half	21.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.65

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur (home no bet)	66.7%	63.3%	59.5%	1.06×	1.58
Draw (home no bet)	33.3%	36.7%	40.5%	0.91×	2.72

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge even goals	57.1%	55.4%	51.2%	1.08×	1.81
Étoile Carouge odd goals	42.9%	44.6%	48.8%	0.91×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
HT 0-1	22.6%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 1-0	13.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	9.9%	7.2%	—	—	13.98
HT 0-2	8.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
Any other HT score	4.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.38
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 2-0	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-1	2.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.56
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.65

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur at HT / Winterthur at FT	31.6%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Draw at HT / Winterthur at FT	19.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Étoile Carouge at HT / Étoile Carouge at FT	10.5%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Étoile Carouge at FT	7.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Étoile Carouge at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Winterthur at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Étoile Carouge at HT / Winterthur at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Winterthur at HT / Étoile Carouge at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur to score last	59.3%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Étoile Carouge to score last	32.4%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	8.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.7%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Winterthur to lead by 1 at any time	68.0%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.1%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Winterthur to lead by 2 at any time	37.7%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Étoile Carouge to lead by 1 at any time	37.2%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Winterthur to lead by 3 at any time	16.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Étoile Carouge to lead by 2 at any time	11.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Étoile Carouge to lead by 3 at any time	2.8%	1.6%	—	—	61.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.4%	78.5%	77.0%	1.02×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.5%	78.5%	77.4%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.7%	72.3%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
2-4 goals	63.4%	63.2%	65.0%	0.97×	1.58
1-3 goals	62.2%	63.2%	59.4%	1.06×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.4%	48.5%	56.7%	0.86×	2.06
2-3 goals	48.2%	48.5%	47.5%	1.02×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.6%	48.5%	51.6%	0.94×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.1%	43.6%	33.2%	1.31×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.3%	39.3%	44.2%	0.89×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.3%	30.6%	30.4%	1.01×	3.27
4-5 goals	23.5%	24.8%	25.3%	0.98×	4.03
5-6 goals	12.1%	15.0%	12.9%	1.16×	6.65
7+ goals	2.2%	2.6%	4.6%	0.56×	38.97

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur never behind	54.5%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Étoile Carouge never behind	23.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.1%	51.0%	49.3%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.9%	49.0%	50.7%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.9%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.1%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.0%	92.2%	90.3%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	91.7%	92.2%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	82.9%	1.05×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	77.7%	77.2%	81.6%	0.95×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	70.5%	72.4%	65.4%	1.11×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.6%	53.0%	60.8%	0.87×	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	48.4%	47.0%	39.2%	1.20×	2.13
Over 3.5 goals	29.5%	27.6%	34.6%	0.80×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	22.3%	22.8%	18.4%	1.24×	4.39
Over 4.5 goals	14.3%	12.6%	17.1%	0.74×	7.96
Under 0.5 goals	8.3%	7.8%	6.5%	1.21×	12.84
Over 5.5 goals	6.0%	7.8%	9.7%	0.80×	12.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.7%	97.2%	95.1%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.5%	92.4%	89.6%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.1%	80.5%	79.3%	1.01×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.8%	67.7%	76.7%	0.88×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.2%	61.6%	53.1%	1.16×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.8%	38.4%	46.9%	0.82×	2.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.2%	32.3%	23.3%	1.39×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.9%	19.5%	20.7%	0.94×	5.13
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.5%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.3%	2.8%	4.9%	0.59×	35.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.5%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.7%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.2%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.3%	30.9%	—	—	3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge not to score in both halves	85.4%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Winterthur not to score in both halves	66.9%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Winterthur to score in both halves	33.1%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Étoile Carouge to score in both halves	14.6%	14.3%	—	—	6.98

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.5%	54.3%	57.6%	0.94×	1.84
Only Winterthur scores	29.4%	26.1%	14.3%	1.83×	3.83
Only Étoile Carouge scores	8.9%	7.1%	22.6%	0.32×	14.04
Neither team scores	8.3%	7.1%	6.5%	1.10×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.1%	24.7%	21.2%	1.16×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.4%	26.7%	0.84×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	15.2%	17.5%	18.0%	0.98×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	14.0%	12.1%	12.4%	0.97×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	8.3%	7.8%	6.5%	1.21×	12.85
Exactly 5 goals	8.3%	7.8%	7.8%	0.99×	12.85
6 or more goals	6.0%	7.8%	9.7%	0.80×	12.86

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	32.8%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	10.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.24

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	30.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	20.5%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge not to win both halves	96.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Winterthur not to win both halves	82.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Winterthur to win both halves	17.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Étoile Carouge to win both halves	3.7%	2.8%	—	—	35.68

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Winterthur to win either half	66.4%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Étoile Carouge to win neither half	66.1%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Étoile Carouge to win either half	33.9%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Winterthur to win neither half	33.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Étoile Carouge not to win to nil	91.1%	92.1%	77.4%	1.19×	1.09
Winterthur not to win to nil	70.6%	75.1%	85.7%	0.88×	1.33
Winterthur to win to nil	29.4%	24.9%	14.3%	1.74×	4.02
Étoile Carouge to win to nil	8.9%	7.9%	22.6%	0.35×	12.62

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.0%	27.7%	22.6%	1.23×	3.61
Winterthur by 1	22.6%	24.2%	14.3%	1.69×	4.14
Winterthur by 2	17.2%	16.9%	14.3%	1.18×	5.92
Winterthur by 3+	14.2%	11.7%	5.5%	2.12×	8.52
Étoile Carouge by 1	11.7%	11.7%	24.0%	0.49×	8.53
Étoile Carouge by 2	5.3%	7.3%	10.1%	0.72×	13.77
Étoile Carouge by 3+	1.9%	2.8%	11.5%	0.24×	35.62

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.