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Everton de Viña del Mar v Deportes Concepcion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Everton de Viña del Mar win
49.2%
model 47.8%
Draw
23.0%
model 22.9%
Deportes Concepcion win
27.8%
model 29.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 14.9%
  2. 0-1 11.4%
  3. 1-1 10.6%
  4. 2-1 8.8%
  5. 2-0 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.542.5% Under 2.557.5%
BTTS yes45.2% BTTS no54.8%
Everton de Viña del Mar 1+74.8% Everton de Viña del Mar 2+40.1%
Deportes Concepcion 1+63.2% Deportes Concepcion 2+26.4%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
85/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
1-2 goals
Multi goal · usually 42%
52.2% fair odds 1.92
strong signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Deportes Concepcion not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.2% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Everton de Viña del Mar have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.8% for Deportes Concepcion and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for Everton de Viña del Mar and 1.00 for Deportes Concepcion.

Why Everton de Viña del Mar

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. A combined 2.38 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Deportes Concepcion can win

Deportes Concepcion carry the stronger rating, 1557 Elo against 1530. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Everton de Viña del Mar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportes Concepcion, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Everton de Viña del Mar: 50% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportes Concepcion: 44% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Everton de Viña del Mar's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Everton de Viña del Mar are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.9%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.38–1.00 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.26–0.93 1-0 16% 37% 41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar to win 46.2% 47.4% 49.0% 0.97× 2.11
Deportes Concepcion to win 29.5% 27.9% 30.0% 0.93× 3.58
Draw 24.3% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar & not both score 30.5% 29.6% 26.8% 1.10× 3.38
Deportes Concepcion & not both score 19.3% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Everton de Viña del Mar & both teams score 15.7% 18.0% 22.4% 0.80× 5.57
Draw & both teams score 15.3% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Deportes Concepcion & both teams score 10.2% 13.3% 13.4% 0.99× 7.54
Draw & not both score 9.0% 8.3% 4.9% 1.71× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar & under 3.5 37.3% 34.9% 34.1% 1.02× 2.87
Everton de Viña del Mar & over 1.5 29.9% 26.1% 36.1% 0.72× 3.84
Everton de Viña del Mar & under 2.5 25.2% 26.1% 20.0% 1.30× 3.84
Deportes Concepcion & under 3.5 25.0% 21.6% 23.4% 0.92× 4.63
Everton de Viña del Mar & over 2.5 21.0% 21.6% 29.3% 0.74× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 19.9% 18.0% 13.9% 1.30× 5.55
Draw & under 3.5 19.9% 18.0% 13.9% 1.30× 5.55
Deportes Concepcion & over 1.5 16.9% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.56
Deportes Concepcion & under 2.5 17.4% 18.0% 13.7% 1.32× 5.56
Everton de Viña del Mar & under 1.5 16.3% 18.0% 13.2% 1.37× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.3% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Deportes Concepcion & under 1.5 12.6% 12.8% 10.2% 1.25× 7.79
Deportes Concepcion & over 2.5 12.1% 12.8% 16.6% 0.77× 7.79
Everton de Viña del Mar & over 3.5 9.0% 7.9% 15.1% 0.52× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 9.0% 7.9% 4.9% 1.62× 12.63
Deportes Concepcion & over 3.5 4.5% 4.8% 6.8% 0.70× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 4.4% 4.8% 7.6% 0.64× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 4.4% 4.8% 7.6% 0.64× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (1UP) 58.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Deportes Concepcion (1UP) 43.0% 38.7% — — 2.59
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (2UP) 46.2% 50.0% — — 2.00
Deportes Concepcion (2UP) 29.5% 25.3% — — 3.95
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 38.8% 36.5% — — 2.74
Everton de Viña del Mar to win 2nd half 35.7% 36.4% — — 2.75
Deportes Concepcion to win 2nd half 25.6% 26.0% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion under 1.5 in 2nd half 89.2% 87.2% — — 1.15
Deportes Concepcion under 0.5 in 2nd half 57.3% 54.4% — — 1.84
Deportes Concepcion over 0.5 in 2nd half 42.7% 45.6% — — 2.19
Deportes Concepcion over 1.5 in 2nd half 10.8% 12.8% — — 7.83
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar under 1.5 in 2nd half 83.7% 82.5% — — 1.21
Everton de Viña del Mar over 0.5 in 2nd half 51.3% 54.9% — — 1.82
Everton de Viña del Mar under 0.5 in 2nd half 48.7% 45.1% — — 2.22
Everton de Viña del Mar over 1.5 in 2nd half 16.3% 17.5% — — 5.71
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion (+2.5) 93.1% 92.1% 89.5% 1.03× 1.09
Deportes Concepcion (+1.5) 80.1% 82.6% 76.8% 1.07× 1.21
Everton de Viña del Mar (+0.5) 70.5% 73.6% 70.0% 1.05× 1.36
Deportes Concepcion (+0.5) 53.8% 52.4% 51.0% 1.03× 1.91
Everton de Viña del Mar (-0.5) 46.2% 47.6% 49.0% 0.97× 2.10
Deportes Concepcion (-0.5) 29.5% 26.4% 30.0% 0.88× 3.79
Everton de Viña del Mar (-1.5) 19.9% 17.4% 23.2% 0.75× 5.73
Everton de Viña del Mar (-2.5) 6.9% 7.9% 10.5% 0.75× 12.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion to concede 71.7% 76.7% 78.5% 0.98× 1.30
Deportes Concepcion clean sheet 28.3% 23.3% 21.5% 1.09× 4.28
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion clean sheet in 1st half 58.1% 56.5% — — 1.77
Deportes Concepcion to concede in 1st half 41.9% 43.5% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion to concede in 2nd half 51.3% 54.4% — — 1.84
Deportes Concepcion clean sheet in 2nd half 48.7% 45.6% — — 2.19
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion under 6.5 corners 85.8% 85.2% — — 1.17
Deportes Concepcion under 5.5 corners 76.6% 76.0% — — 1.32
Deportes Concepcion over 2.5 corners 70.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
Deportes Concepcion under 4.5 corners 63.5% 61.7% — — 1.62
Deportes Concepcion over 3.5 corners 52.8% 53.1% — — 1.88
Deportes Concepcion under 3.5 corners 47.2% 46.9% — — 2.13
Deportes Concepcion over 4.5 corners 36.5% 38.3% — — 2.61
Deportes Concepcion under 2.5 corners 29.4% 28.4% — — 3.52
Deportes Concepcion over 5.5 corners 23.4% 24.0% — — 4.18
Deportes Concepcion over 6.5 corners 14.2% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion under 3.5 goals 98.5% 97.5% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Deportes Concepcion under 2.5 goals 93.2% 92.4% 88.3% 1.05× 1.08
Deportes Concepcion under 1.5 goals 76.2% 76.2% 68.5% 1.11× 1.31
Deportes Concepcion over 0.5 goals 60.5% 63.2% 68.5% 0.92× 1.58
Deportes Concepcion under 0.5 goals 39.5% 36.8% 31.5% 1.17× 2.72
Deportes Concepcion over 1.5 goals 23.8% 23.8% 31.5% 0.76× 4.21
Deportes Concepcion over 2.5 goals 6.8% 7.6% 11.7% 0.65× 13.08
Deportes Concepcion over 3.5 goals 1.5% 2.5% 2.9% 0.86× 39.89
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion under 1.5 in 1st half 94.6% 94.0% — — 1.06
Deportes Concepcion under 0.5 in 1st half 69.0% 70.4% — — 1.42
Deportes Concepcion over 0.5 in 1st half 31.0% 29.6% — — 3.38
Deportes Concepcion over 1.5 in 1st half 5.4% 6.0% — — 16.68
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion scores equally in both 48.1% 48.2% — — 2.07
Deportes Concepcion scores more in 2nd half 32.3% 33.3% — — 3.01
Deportes Concepcion scores more in 1st half 19.6% 18.2% — — 5.49
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (away no bet) 65.6% 66.4% 69.8% 0.95× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 34.4% 33.6% 30.2% 1.11× 2.97
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion even goals 57.8% 56.9% 53.7% 1.06× 1.76
Deportes Concepcion odd goals 42.2% 43.1% 46.3% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.5% 91.4% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.5% 8.6% — — 11.69
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 50.1% 50.3% — — 1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals 49.9% 49.7% — — 2.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 44.8% 38.9% — — 2.57
Everton de Viña del Mar to score 2+ in a row 30.0% 28.8% — — 3.47
Deportes Concepcion to score 2+ in a row 18.1% 16.2% — — 6.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row 13.4% 12.2% — — 8.21
Everton de Viña del Mar to score 3+ in a row 9.5% 5.5% — — 18.02
Deportes Concepcion to score 3+ in a row 4.1% 2.6% — — 38.48
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (+3.5) 90.9% 89.6% — — 1.12
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (+2.5) 85.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (+1.5) 78.1% 74.8% — — 1.34
Deportes Concepcion corners (+3.5) 73.9% 70.8% — — 1.41
Deportes Concepcion corners (+2.5) 64.3% 61.9% — — 1.62
Deportes Concepcion corners (+1.5) 53.4% 52.4% — — 1.91
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (-1.5) 46.6% 47.6% — — 2.10
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (-2.5) 35.7% 38.1% — — 2.62
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (-3.5) 26.1% 29.2% — — 3.42
Deportes Concepcion corners (-1.5) 21.9% 25.2% — — 3.97
Deportes Concepcion corners (-2.5) 14.5% 15.5% — — 6.45
Deportes Concepcion corners (-3.5) 9.1% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 45.7% 41.7% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 25.1% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 81.8% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 74.9% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 66.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 65.3% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 9.5 corners 56.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 54.3% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 45.7% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 43.5% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 34.7% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 33.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 25.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 18.2% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 16.3% 13.8% 13.2% 1.05× 7.24
0-1 12.6% 11.5% 10.2% 1.12× 8.71
1-1 10.9% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.72
0-0 9.0% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.51
2-0 8.9% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
2-1 8.3% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
1-2 6.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
0-2 4.8% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.29
0-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
2-2 3.8% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.30
2-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
3-0 3.7% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.30
3-1 3.5% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.30
3-2 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.31
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.31
4-1 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
Any other score 1.2% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (2nd half DNB) 58.2% 59.6% — — 1.68
Deportes Concepcion (2nd half DNB) 41.8% 40.4% — — 2.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar leading at HT (DNB) 61.4% 66.3% — — 1.51
Deportes Concepcion leading at HT (DNB) 38.6% 33.7% — — 2.97
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar or Deportes Concepcion (12) 75.7% 75.5% 78.8% 0.96× 1.32
Everton de Viña del Mar or draw (1X) 70.5% 72.1% 70.0% 1.03× 1.39
Deportes Concepcion or draw (X2) 53.8% 52.6% 51.0% 1.03× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar or draw at HT 79.8% 79.7% — — 1.26
Deportes Concepcion or draw at HT 68.0% 67.2% — — 1.49
Everton de Viña del Mar or Deportes Concepcion at HT 52.2% 48.5% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar or draw (1UP) 70.5% 79.5% — — 1.26
Deportes Concepcion or draw (1UP) 53.8% 58.7% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar or draw in 2nd half 74.4% 74.0% — — 1.35
Deportes Concepcion or draw in 2nd half 64.3% 63.6% — — 1.57
Everton de Viña del Mar or Deportes Concepcion in 2nd half 61.2% 63.5% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 70.4% 69.6% — — 1.44
Neither half drawn 29.6% 30.4% — — 3.29
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (DNB) 61.1% 62.6% 62.0% 1.01× 1.60
Deportes Concepcion (DNB) 38.9% 37.4% 38.0% 0.98× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar to score first 52.4% 53.3% — — 1.88
Deportes Concepcion to score first 38.6% 32.8% — — 3.05
No goal scored 9.0% 7.6% — — 13.12
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 58.9% 55.0% 48.0% 1.14× 1.82
Both teams to score 41.1% 45.0% 52.0% 0.87× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 51.6% 47.2% 38.0% 1.24× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 30.2% 34.5% 42.9% 0.80× 2.90
Both score & under 2.5 10.9% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.2% 8.3% 10.2% 0.81× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 91.4% 89.0% 84.6% 1.05× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 8.6% 11.0% 15.4% 0.72× 9.09
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 78.9% 75.3% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 21.1% 24.7% — — 4.05
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 69.1% 63.8% — — 1.57
Both score 2nd half only 18.3% 15.0% — — 6.66
Both score 1st half only 9.8% 6.8% — — 14.62
Both score in both halves 2.8% 4.9% — — 20.59
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.4% 84.9% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 12.6% 15.1% — — 6.64
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 57.9% 57.1% — — 1.75
A goal in each half 42.1% 42.9% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.2% 42.2% 43.4% 0.97× 2.37
0-1 goals 37.9% 35.0% 27.8% 1.26× 2.85
4-6 goals 17.1% 20.2% 26.8% 0.75× 4.94
7+ goals 0.7% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 54.49
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion to score exactly 0 39.5% 35.9% 31.5% 1.14× 2.78
Deportes Concepcion to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 37.3% 0.96× 2.78
Deportes Concepcion to score exactly 2 17.0% 19.5% 20.0% 0.98× 5.12
Deportes Concepcion to score 3+ 6.8% 8.5% 11.7% 0.73× 11.71
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar to score exactly 1 35.7% 35.5% 31.7% 1.12× 2.81
Everton de Viña del Mar to score exactly 0 28.3% 26.6% 21.5% 1.24× 3.77
Everton de Viña del Mar to score exactly 2 22.5% 23.3% 26.3% 0.88× 4.29
Everton de Viña del Mar to score 3+ 13.4% 14.3% 21.0% 0.68× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.8% 51.5% — — 1.94
Everton de Viña del Mar leading at HT 32.0% 32.8% — — 3.05
Deportes Concepcion leading at HT 20.2% 20.3% — — 4.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar -1: 2 53.8% 52.2% — — 1.92
Everton de Viña del Mar -1: X 26.4% 26.5% — — 3.77
Everton de Viña del Mar -1: 1 19.9% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion (0:1) 53.8% 51.3% 51.0% 1.01× 1.95
Draw (0:1) 26.4% 27.0% 26.1% 1.03× 3.70
Everton de Viña del Mar (0:1) 19.9% 17.8% 23.2% 0.77× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion (0:2) 80.1% 82.9% 76.8% 1.08× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 12.9% 11.0% 12.9% 0.85× 9.10
Everton de Viña del Mar (0:2) 6.9% 7.7% 10.5% 0.73× 13.06
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion (0:3) 93.1% 92.7% 89.5% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.0% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 41.92
Everton de Viña del Mar (0:3) 1.9% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.05
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion (0:4) 98.1% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.5% 1.2% 4.1% 0.29× 81.80
Everton de Viña del Mar (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.5% 0.83× 81.92
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (1:0) 70.5% 72.4% 70.0% 1.03× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 20.0% 17.1% 20.0% 0.86× 5.84
Deportes Concepcion (1:0) 9.5% 6.9% 10.2% 0.68× 14.46
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (2:0) 90.5% 94.0% 89.8% 1.05× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 7.0% 6.4% 6.3% 1.01× 15.66
Deportes Concepcion (2:0) 2.5% 2.3% 4.1% 0.55× 43.77
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.6% 48.5% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 28.1% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 25.3% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar to concede 60.5% 63.6% 68.5% 0.93× 1.57
Everton de Viña del Mar clean sheet 39.5% 36.4% 31.5% 1.16× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar clean sheet in 1st half 69.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Everton de Viña del Mar to concede in 1st half 31.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar clean sheet in 2nd half 57.3% 54.8% — — 1.83
Everton de Viña del Mar to concede in 2nd half 42.7% 45.2% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar over 2.5 corners 83.7% 81.0% — — 1.24
Everton de Viña del Mar over 3.5 corners 70.5% 71.9% — — 1.39
Everton de Viña del Mar under 6.5 corners 70.4% 71.9% — — 1.39
Everton de Viña del Mar under 5.5 corners 58.3% 57.5% — — 1.74
Everton de Viña del Mar over 4.5 corners 55.8% 57.5% — — 1.74
Everton de Viña del Mar under 4.5 corners 44.2% 42.5% — — 2.35
Everton de Viña del Mar over 5.5 corners 41.7% 42.5% — — 2.35
Everton de Viña del Mar under 3.5 corners 29.5% 28.1% — — 3.56
Everton de Viña del Mar over 6.5 corners 29.6% 28.1% — — 3.56
Everton de Viña del Mar under 2.5 corners 16.3% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar under 3.5 goals 96.1% 96.4% 91.0% 1.06× 1.04
Everton de Viña del Mar under 2.5 goals 86.6% 87.3% 79.0% 1.10× 1.15
Everton de Viña del Mar over 0.5 goals 71.7% 74.2% 78.5% 0.94× 1.35
Everton de Viña del Mar under 1.5 goals 64.0% 63.6% 52.9% 1.20× 1.57
Everton de Viña del Mar over 1.5 goals 36.0% 36.4% 47.1% 0.77× 2.75
Everton de Viña del Mar under 0.5 goals 28.3% 25.8% 21.5% 1.20× 3.88
Everton de Viña del Mar over 2.5 goals 13.4% 12.7% 21.0% 0.61× 7.85
Everton de Viña del Mar over 3.5 goals 3.9% 3.6% 9.0% 0.40× 27.51
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar under 1.5 in 1st half 89.7% 90.2% — — 1.11
Everton de Viña del Mar under 0.5 in 1st half 58.1% 56.3% — — 1.78
Everton de Viña del Mar over 0.5 in 1st half 41.9% 43.7% — — 2.29
Everton de Viña del Mar over 1.5 in 1st half 10.3% 9.8% — — 10.19
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar scores equally in both 40.5% 41.6% — — 2.40
Everton de Viña del Mar scores more in 2nd half 35.3% 38.1% — — 2.63
Everton de Viña del Mar scores more in 1st half 24.3% 21.0% — — 4.75
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion (home no bet) 54.9% 51.5% 58.6% 0.88× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 45.1% 48.5% 41.4% 1.17× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar even goals 54.0% 50.8% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
Everton de Viña del Mar odd goals 46.0% 49.2% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 39.7% 38.9% — — 2.57
HT 1-0 22.1% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 0-1 15.3% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 7.7% 6.9% — — 14.54
HT 2-0 5.9% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 0-2 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.24
Any other HT score 2.4% 2.4% — — 42.26
HT 2-1 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.28
HT 1-2 1.5% 2.4% — — 42.32
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.4% — — 42.39
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar at HT / Everton de Viña del Mar at FT 26.2% 27.3% — — 3.66
Draw at HT / Everton de Viña del Mar at FT 18.2% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.2% 16.8% — — 5.97
Deportes Concepcion at HT / Deportes Concepcion at FT 14.6% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Deportes Concepcion at FT 13.4% 12.7% — — 7.89
Everton de Viña del Mar at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% — — 28.88
Deportes Concepcion at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.5% — — 28.90
Deportes Concepcion at HT / Everton de Viña del Mar at FT 1.8% 3.5% — — 28.97
Everton de Viña del Mar at HT / Deportes Concepcion at FT 1.5% 3.5% — — 28.98
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar to score last 52.3% 52.1% — — 1.92
Deportes Concepcion to score last 38.7% 38.7% — — 2.58
No goal scored 9.0% 7.6% — — 13.12
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.0% 92.5% — — 1.08
Everton de Viña del Mar to lead by 1 at any time 58.1% 54.9% — — 1.82
Deportes Concepcion to lead by 1 at any time 43.0% 39.2% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 37.7% 34.8% — — 2.87
Everton de Viña del Mar to lead by 2 at any time 24.5% 19.6% — — 5.11
Deportes Concepcion to lead by 2 at any time 13.3% 10.6% — — 9.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.5% 10.6% — — 9.45
Everton de Viña del Mar to lead by 3 at any time 8.2% 6.7% — — 15.00
Deportes Concepcion to lead by 3 at any time 3.3% 1.6% — — 62.08
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar most corners 57.9% 55.6% — — 1.80
Deportes Concepcion most corners 31.3% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 10.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 88.6% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 83.9% 83.4% 81.2% 1.03× 1.20
1-3 goals 73.1% 72.3% 66.3% 1.09× 1.38
2-6 goals 61.4% 63.3% 70.0% 0.90× 1.58
2-5 goals 59.7% 59.1% 64.4% 0.92× 1.69
2-4 goals 55.0% 53.2% 58.3% 0.91× 1.88
1-2 goals 53.6% 53.2% 42.4% 1.25× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.2% 43.6% 43.4% 1.00× 2.29
3-6 goals 36.7% 39.2% 50.7% 0.77× 2.55
3-5 goals 35.0% 39.2% 45.1% 0.87× 2.55
3-4 goals 30.3% 35.2% 39.0% 0.90× 2.84
4-6 goals 17.1% 18.8% 26.8% 0.70× 5.31
4-5 goals 15.4% 18.8% 21.2% 0.89× 5.31
5-6 goals 6.4% 8.9% 12.0% 0.74× 11.27
7+ goals 0.7% 2.5% 2.4% 1.04× 39.24
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar never behind 48.0% 56.8% — — 1.76
Deportes Concepcion never behind 32.9% 36.3% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.2% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.8% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.3% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 42.7% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.6% 95.4% 92.0% 1.04× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.9% 92.3% 85.9% 1.07× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 91.0% 92.3% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 82.1% 82.3% 71.0% 1.16× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 62.5% 61.7% 47.1% 1.31× 1.62
Over 1.5 goals 62.1% 61.7% 72.2% 0.85× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 37.9% 38.3% 27.8% 1.38× 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 37.5% 38.3% 52.9% 0.72× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 17.9% 17.7% 29.0% 0.61× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 9.0% 7.7% 4.9% 1.59× 12.93
Over 4.5 goals 7.1% 7.7% 14.1% 0.55× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 2.4% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.3% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.4% 97.2% 91.4% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 92.0% 92.4% 83.4% 1.11× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 77.8% 75.9% 61.9% 1.23× 1.32
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 50.3% 51.8% 34.4% 1.51× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 49.7% 48.2% 65.6% 0.73× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 22.2% 24.1% 38.1% 0.63× 4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 8.0% 7.6% 16.6% 0.46× 13.18
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.6% 2.8% 8.6% 0.33× 35.62
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.7% 2.8% 2.6% 1.08× 35.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.5% 92.9% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 77.1% 78.1% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 60.3% 63.1% — — 1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 39.7% 36.9% — — 2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half 22.9% 21.9% — — 4.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.5% 7.1% — — 14.04
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 86.3% 85.3% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 72.8% 77.7% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 64.3% 61.6% — — 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 35.7% 38.4% — — 2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 27.2% 22.3% — — 4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 13.7% 14.7% — — 6.82
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion not to score in both halves 86.8% 85.6% — — 1.17
Everton de Viña del Mar not to score in both halves 78.5% 78.5% — — 1.27
Everton de Viña del Mar to score in both halves 21.5% 21.5% — — 4.65
Deportes Concepcion to score in both halves 13.2% 14.4% — — 6.93
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 41.1% 46.6% 52.0% 0.90× 2.15
Only Everton de Viña del Mar scores 30.5% 33.3% 26.8% 1.24× 3.01
Only Deportes Concepcion scores 19.3% 16.1% 16.8% 0.95× 6.23
Neither team scores 9.0% 7.1% 4.9% 1.47× 13.99
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 28.9% 24.9% 23.2% 1.07× 4.02
Exactly 2 goals 24.6% 22.6% 19.5% 1.16× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 19.6% 17.5% 24.1% 0.72× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 10.7% 12.1% 15.1% 0.80× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 9.0% 7.6% 4.9% 1.56× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 4.7% 4.5% 6.3% 0.71× 22.33
6 or more goals 2.4% 4.5% 8.0% 0.56× 22.36
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 39.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
1 goal in 1st half 37.4% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 16.4% 15.6% — — 6.40
3+ goals in 1st half 6.5% 7.1% — — 14.04
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 37.1% 39.8% — — 2.51
2+ goals in 2nd half 35.7% 39.6% — — 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 27.2% 29.1% — — 3.44
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion not to win both halves 95.1% 97.2% — — 1.03
Everton de Viña del Mar not to win both halves 89.0% 88.0% — — 1.14
Everton de Viña del Mar to win both halves 11.0% 12.0% — — 8.34
Deportes Concepcion to win both halves 4.9% 2.8% — — 35.23
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion to win neither half 59.2% 59.1% — — 1.69
Everton de Viña del Mar to win either half 56.6% 59.0% — — 1.70
Everton de Viña del Mar to win neither half 43.4% 41.0% — — 2.44
Deportes Concepcion to win either half 40.8% 40.9% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Concepcion not to win to nil 80.7% 83.1% 83.2% 1.00× 1.20
Everton de Viña del Mar not to win to nil 69.5% 69.7% 73.2% 0.95× 1.43
Everton de Viña del Mar to win to nil 30.5% 30.3% 26.8% 1.13× 3.30
Deportes Concepcion to win to nil 19.3% 16.9% 16.8% 1.01× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar by 1 26.4% 27.9% 26.1% 1.07× 3.59
Draw 24.3% 24.1% 21.2% 1.14× 4.15
Deportes Concepcion by 1 20.0% 17.1% 20.0% 0.85× 5.86
Everton de Viña del Mar by 2 12.9% 11.8% 12.9% 0.91× 8.50
Deportes Concepcion by 2 7.0% 7.2% 6.3% 1.13× 13.91
Everton de Viña del Mar by 3+ 6.9% 7.2% 10.5% 0.69× 13.91
Deportes Concepcion by 3+ 2.5% 2.7% 4.1% 0.65× 36.89
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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