Everton de Viña del Mar v La Serena — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627
CHI-Primera Division
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 11.5%
- 2-1 9.9%
- 2-0 9.6%
- 1-1 8.5%
- 0-1 6.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 57.5% | Under 2.5 | 42.5% |
| BTTS yes | 53.7% | BTTS no | 46.3% |
| Everton de Viña del Mar 1+ | 85.8% | Everton de Viña del Mar 2+ | 58.1% |
| La Serena 1+ | 64.6% | La Serena 2+ | 27.9% |
Expected goals 1.95 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Everton carry the stronger rating, 1591 Elo against 1473.
- Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Everton have an estimated 59.1% win probability, against 22.5% for La Serena and 18.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.95 for Everton and 1.04 for La Serena.
Why Everton de Viña del Mar
Everton carry the stronger rating, 1591 Elo against 1473. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 18.4%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.
Why La Serena can win
Nothing in the data singles out La Serena.
Key players
Everton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (0.32), Thierno Barry (0.31), Iliman Ndiaye (0.29).
Availability
No lineup on record for La Serena, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Everton: 48% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces. La Serena: 41% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Everton's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Everton are the model's most likely outcome at 59.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.5%. Confidence 81/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.99–1.05 | 1-0 11% | 58% | 54% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.