Everton v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 13
On target
1 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 12
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.79
Goals − xG
-0.21 – -0.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
20.3%
Draw
25.5%
Arsenal win
54.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.0 xG
conceded 5
from 10.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.86–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.82–1.47 | 0-1 15% | 40% | 43% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 0.21 xGArsenal 1.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18' |
 Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 40' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 43' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
 Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 50' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 56' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 61' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Declan Rice |
| 68' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Martin Odegaard |
| 69' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 73' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 77' |
Everton |
Merlin Röhl | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 90' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.85 |
| Martín Zubimendi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.70 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.76 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Piero Hincapié DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.68 |
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.90 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Grealish AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Carlos Alcaraz AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dwight McNeil AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Dibling Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |