Everton v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 7
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
14 – 3
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.20
Goals − xG
-1.89 – -0.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
34.2%
Draw
27.8%
Aston Villa win
38.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.16–1.48 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 1.89 xGAston Villa 0.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Everton |
Beto | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 7' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 10' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 15' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Keane |
| 15' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 23' |
 Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.17 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 39' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 43' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 58' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 61' |
Everton |
Jake O'Brien | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 84' |
Everton |
Merlin Röhl | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 88' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 88' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Merlin Röhl |
| 89' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 89' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 90' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 93' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jake O'Brien |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 0.56 |
| Jack Grealish AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.10 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.52 |
| James Garner DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 0.10 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Beto FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Thierno Barry Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| John McGinn AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Evann Guessand Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Lindelöf Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |