Everton v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 17
On target
8 – 7
Shots in box
13 – 12
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
1.05 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-0.56 – -0.31
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
45.0%
Draw
23.7%
Bournemouth win
31.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.38 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 2.56 xGBournemouth 3.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 11' |
 Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.16 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 13' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 14' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 16' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 20' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 21' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 28' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 39' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 43' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 45' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.43 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 52' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Everton |
Seamus Coleman | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 56' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dwight McNeil |
| 64' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 68' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 68' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Iroegbunam |
| 70' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.31 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Dwight McNeil |
| 79' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Illia Zabarnyi | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dango Ouattara |
| 90' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Iroegbunam |
| 91' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Goal | Luis Sinisterra |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Smith |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | Justin Kluivert |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.29 | 0.15 | 2.33 |
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.06 | 1.06 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.52 | 1.24 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Julián Araujo DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| Evanilson FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Luis Sinisterra Sub | 24 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.87 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.17 |
| Dean Huijsen Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Seamus Coleman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 0.72 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1.34 |
| Dwight McNeil AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.09 | 1.14 | 1.24 |
| Jack Harrison AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.07 | 0.67 | 0.86 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.54 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.70 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |