Everton v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 3 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 5
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.61
Goals − xG
+0.84 – -0.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
53.8%
Draw
28.7%
Burnley win
17.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.94–0.87 | 1-0 12% | 53% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 1.16 xGBurnley 0.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 6' |
 Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 18' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Beto |
| 31' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.18 | Set Piece | — | Goal | James Garner |
| 36' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 46' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | James Garner |
| 46' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 47' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 73' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 75' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Garner |
| 78' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 91' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 97' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.57 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Pires |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyle Foster FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lucas Pires DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.60 | 0.03 |
| Jaidon Anthony AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kyle Walker DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hannibal Mejbri MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Worrall DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Florentino Luís MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Ward-Prowse Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Laurent Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ashley Barnes Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Dwight McNeil AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.51 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.00 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Keane Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thierno Barry Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Dibling Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |