Everton v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 6
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+0.34 – -0.35
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
67.2%
Draw
18.5%
Burnley win
14.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.27–0.94 | 2-0 10% | 62% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 0.66 xGBurnley 0.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' |
 Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ashley Young |
| 20' |
 Burnley |
Charlie Taylor | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Burnley |
Jacob Bruun Larsen | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Seamus Coleman |
| 38' |
Burnley |
David Datro Fofana | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Josh Cullen |
| 43' |
Everton |
Ashley Young | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 46' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
Burnley |
Sander Berge | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Bruun Larsen |
| 58' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ashley Young |
| 65' |
Everton |
André Gomes | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Burnley |
Josh Brownhill | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Cullen |
| 72' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.18 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ashley Young |
| 74' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 79' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 92' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyle Foster MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sander Berge MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Josh Cullen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Charlie Taylor DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Wilson Odobert FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| David Datro Fofana FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitinho Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Brownhill Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Zeki Amdouni Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jay Rodriguez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johann Berg Gudmundsson Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight McNeil ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| André Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Seamus Coleman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.29 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| James Garner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Ashley Young MR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |