Everton v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Everton

0–2

0.57 – 1.60 xG

Chelsea

Shots

6 – 18

On target

5 – 6

Shots in box

6 – 10

xG per shot

0.10 – 0.09

Set-piece xG

0.33 – 0.37

Goals − xG

-0.57 – +0.39

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 16 Oct, 11:08 · 24h before kick-off

Everton win

30.9%

model 33.2%

Draw

23.8%

model 24.3%

Chelsea win

45.3%

model 42.5%

312445

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.3%
1-2 9.0%
0-1 8.2%
2-1 7.8%
1-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.8%	Under 2.5	43.2%
BTTS yes	59.4%	BTTS no	40.6%
Everton 1+	74.7%	Everton 2+	39.9%
Chelsea 1+	79.5%	Chelsea 2+	47.0%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.59. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Everton to win neither half

Win either half · usually 41%

53.7% fair odds 1.86

moderate signal · 1081 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Chelsea carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1588.
Chelsea have created 1.51 xG a match over their last five while Everton have allowed 1.61.
Away from home Chelsea average 1.08 xG a match.

Risk factors

Chelsea have scored 2.40 a match from 1.51 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Chelsea have an estimated 45.3% win probability, against 30.9% for Everton and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.37 for Everton and 1.58 for Chelsea.

Why Everton

Everton have created 1.65 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.94. At home Everton average 1.62 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Chelsea were missing 0.85 expected goal involvements a match against 0.54.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.37 to 1.58. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Chelsea can win

Chelsea carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1588. Chelsea have created 1.51 xG a match over their last five while Everton have allowed 1.61. Away from home Chelsea average 1.08 xG a match.

Key players

Everton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Thierno Barry (0.41), Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (0.38), Iliman Ndiaye (0.29). Chelsea's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: João Pedro (0.56), Cole Palmer (0.46), Enzo Fernández (0.43).

Availability

1 of Everton's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Chelsea's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Chelsea's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Everton: 48% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces. Chelsea: 50% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.31 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-16 13:03 · team_stats 2026-10-13 06:04 · availability 2026-10-16 15:08 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Chelsea are the model's most likely outcome at 45.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Everton are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLLWDDDWDL last 10 scored 11 from 15.4 xG conceded 13 from 16.3 xG

Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DWLWWLDLWW last 10 scored 21 from 14.5 xG conceded 17 from 17.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	332443	1.37–1.59	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-goals	422731	1.58–1.33	1-1 13%	56%	59%	Home ✗
dc-xg	342442	1.40–1.59	1-1 11%	57%	60%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	322444	1.35–1.61	1-1 11%	57%	59%	Away ✓
deep	342442	1.40–1.59	1-1 11%	57%	60%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win	42.0%	42.9%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Everton to win	33.8%	30.5%	42.9%	0.71×	3.28
Draw	24.2%	24.5%	24.9%	0.98×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & both teams score	22.4%	21.8%	15.4%	1.42×	4.58
Chelsea & not both score	19.6%	18.0%	17.0%	1.06×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Everton & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	23.0%	0.78×	5.56
Everton & not both score	15.4%	18.0%	20.1%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & not both score	5.0%	8.3%	5.0%	1.67×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & over 1.5	34.0%	30.8%	25.4%	1.21×	3.25
Chelsea & over 2.5	27.7%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Everton & over 1.5	26.7%	26.1%	36.6%	0.71×	3.84
Chelsea & under 3.5	26.6%	26.1%	21.7%	1.20×	3.84
Everton & under 3.5	22.1%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Everton & over 2.5	21.8%	21.6%	30.3%	0.71×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.2%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Chelsea & over 3.5	15.4%	18.0%	10.6%	1.69×	5.56
Chelsea & under 2.5	14.3%	12.8%	12.5%	1.03×	7.79
Everton & under 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	12.7%	1.01×	7.79
Everton & over 3.5	11.6%	12.8%	16.4%	0.78×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	8.7%	0.92×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	8.7%	0.92×	12.62
Chelsea & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.62
Everton & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	5.0%	7.9%	5.0%	1.59×	12.62

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1UP)	59.4%	58.2%	51.5%	1.13×	1.72
Everton (1UP)	52.4%	52.6%	62.1%	0.85×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2UP)	42.0%	47.0%	34.4%	1.36×	2.13
Everton (2UP)	33.8%	30.9%	44.7%	0.69×	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win 2nd half	38.1%	36.3%	32.8%	1.11×	2.75
2nd half drawn	33.2%	34.1%	31.1%	1.10×	2.93
Everton to win 2nd half	28.7%	26.2%	36.2%	0.72×	3.82

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.9%	75.8%	79.8%	0.95×	1.32
Chelsea over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.9%	60.3%	57.9%	1.04×	1.66
Chelsea under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.1%	39.7%	42.1%	0.94×	2.52
Chelsea over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.1%	24.2%	20.2%	1.20×	4.13

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.1%	82.4%	75.1%	1.10×	1.21
Everton over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	54.6%	58.4%	0.93×	1.83
Everton under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	45.4%	41.6%	1.09×	2.20
Everton over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.9%	17.6%	24.9%	0.71×	5.68

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (+2.5)	94.4%	92.1%	89.1%	1.03×	1.09
Chelsea (+1.5)	84.6%	82.5%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Chelsea (+0.5)	66.2%	68.7%	57.1%	1.20×	1.46
Everton (+0.5)	58.0%	57.1%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75
Chelsea (-0.5)	42.0%	42.9%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Everton (-0.5)	33.8%	31.3%	42.9%	0.73×	3.19
Everton (-1.5)	15.4%	17.5%	24.0%	0.73×	5.73
Everton (-2.5)	5.6%	7.9%	10.9%	0.72×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede	75.4%	78.7%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
Chelsea clean sheet	24.6%	21.3%	21.9%	0.97×	4.69

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea clean sheet in 1st half	54.5%	50.8%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Chelsea to concede in 1st half	45.5%	49.2%	51.1%	0.96×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede in 2nd half	54.8%	53.9%	58.4%	0.92×	1.85
Chelsea clean sheet in 2nd half	45.2%	46.1%	41.6%	1.11×	2.17

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 2.5 corners	86.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Chelsea over 3.5 corners	75.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Chelsea under 6.5 corners	64.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Chelsea over 4.5 corners	61.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Chelsea under 5.5 corners	52.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Chelsea over 5.5 corners	48.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Chelsea under 4.5 corners	38.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Chelsea over 6.5 corners	35.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Chelsea under 3.5 corners	24.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Chelsea under 2.5 corners	13.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 3.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Chelsea over 0.5 goals	79.6%	76.3%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Chelsea under 2.5 goals	78.6%	76.3%	84.9%	0.90×	1.31
Chelsea under 1.5 goals	52.8%	53.6%	60.6%	0.88×	1.87
Chelsea over 1.5 goals	47.2%	46.4%	39.4%	1.18×	2.15
Chelsea over 2.5 goals	21.4%	23.7%	15.1%	1.58×	4.21
Chelsea under 0.5 goals	20.4%	23.7%	25.0%	0.95×	4.22
Chelsea over 3.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	5.4%	1.42×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 1st half	87.0%	89.1%	89.2%	1.00×	1.12
Chelsea under 0.5 in 1st half	53.6%	55.8%	59.7%	0.93×	1.79
Chelsea over 0.5 in 1st half	46.4%	44.2%	40.3%	1.10×	2.26
Chelsea over 1.5 in 1st half	13.0%	10.9%	10.8%	1.01×	9.17

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea scores more in 2nd half	42.4%	43.6%	40.9%	1.06×	2.30
Chelsea scores equally in both	34.7%	33.6%	37.4%	0.90×	2.98
Chelsea scores more in 1st half	23.0%	21.8%	21.7%	1.01×	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (away no bet)	58.2%	57.4%	63.3%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.8%	42.6%	36.7%	1.16×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea even goals	52.1%	52.6%	53.4%	0.99×	1.90
Chelsea odd goals	47.9%	47.4%	46.6%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.7%	82.6%	80.0%	1.03×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.3%	17.4%	20.0%	0.87×	5.74

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.1%	68.6%	70.4%	0.97×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.9%	31.4%	29.6%	1.06×	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.3%	60.1%	61.6%	0.98×	1.67
Chelsea to score 2+ in a row	37.5%	36.4%	29.8%	1.22×	2.75
Everton to score 2+ in a row	31.0%	29.0%	39.2%	0.74×	3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.3%	19.7%	26.2%	0.75×	5.07
Chelsea to score 3+ in a row	13.2%	12.1%	10.2%	1.19×	8.28
Everton to score 3+ in a row	9.5%	5.7%	16.5%	0.35×	17.59

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea corners (+3.5)	90.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea corners (+2.5)	85.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Chelsea corners (+1.5)	78.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Everton corners (+3.5)	71.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Everton corners (+2.5)	61.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Everton corners (+1.5)	51.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Chelsea corners (-1.5)	48.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Chelsea corners (-2.5)	38.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Chelsea corners (-3.5)	28.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Everton corners (-1.5)	21.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Everton corners (-2.5)	14.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Everton corners (-3.5)	9.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	38.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.2%	11.5%	11.4%	1.01×	8.73
1-2	8.9%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.50
0-1	8.0%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.50
1-0	7.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.50
2-1	7.8%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.50
0-0	5.0%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.51
0-2	6.3%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.50
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.50
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.29
0-3	3.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
1-3	4.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.29
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.21×	58.31
2-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.58×	58.31
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.31
3-1	3.7%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.30
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.29×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.29×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.87×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.15×	58.32
Any other score	3.7%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2nd half DNB)	57.0%	59.4%	47.5%	1.25×	1.69
Everton (2nd half DNB)	43.0%	40.6%	52.5%	0.77×	2.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea leading at HT (DNB)	50.9%	54.9%	40.3%	1.36×	1.82
Everton leading at HT (DNB)	49.1%	45.1%	59.7%	0.76×	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton or Chelsea (12)	75.8%	75.5%	75.1%	1.01×	1.32
Chelsea or draw (X2)	66.2%	69.5%	57.1%	1.22×	1.44
Everton or draw (1X)	58.0%	57.1%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw at HT	71.2%	74.9%	64.1%	1.17×	1.34
Everton or draw at HT	70.1%	74.9%	75.8%	0.99×	1.34
Everton or Chelsea at HT	58.7%	57.3%	60.0%	0.95×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw (1UP)	66.2%	75.9%	65.4%	1.16×	1.32
Everton or draw (1UP)	58.0%	63.4%	74.3%	0.85×	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw in 2nd half	71.3%	73.8%	63.8%	1.16×	1.36
Everton or Chelsea in 2nd half	66.8%	65.9%	68.9%	0.96×	1.52
Everton or draw in 2nd half	61.9%	63.7%	67.2%	0.95×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.8%	61.3%	57.2%	1.07×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.2%	38.7%	42.8%	0.90×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (DNB)	55.5%	57.9%	42.9%	1.35×	1.73
Everton (DNB)	44.5%	42.1%	57.1%	0.74×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score first	50.5%	53.1%	43.3%	1.23×	1.88
Everton to score first	44.5%	41.8%	51.7%	0.81×	2.39
No goal scored	5.0%	7.4%	5.0%	1.49×	13.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.0%	55.1%	58.2%	0.95×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.0%	44.9%	41.8%	1.07×	2.23

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.8%	44.4%	46.8%	0.95×	2.25
Not both score & under 2.5	31.3%	34.5%	30.0%	1.15×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.2%	12.4%	11.4%	1.08×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.7%	82.6%	82.0%	1.01×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	19.3%	17.4%	18.0%	0.97×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.1%	67.0%	68.5%	0.98×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.9%	33.0%	31.5%	1.05×	3.03

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.1%	54.7%	55.7%	0.98×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	26.8%	27.6%	24.8%	1.11×	3.62
Both score 1st half only	14.0%	10.8%	12.9%	0.84×	9.28
Both score in both halves	7.2%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.9%	81.3%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.1%	18.7%	19.6%	0.95×	5.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.6%	57.0%	61.5%	0.93×	1.75
A half without a goal	41.4%	43.0%	38.5%	1.12×	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.37
4-6 goals	31.8%	30.8%	32.8%	0.94×	3.25
0-1 goals	20.1%	22.9%	18.2%	1.26×	4.37
7+ goals	3.3%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.35

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score exactly 1	32.4%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Chelsea to score exactly 2	25.8%	27.4%	24.5%	1.12×	3.65
Chelsea to score 3+	21.4%	22.3%	15.1%	1.48×	4.48
Chelsea to score exactly 0	20.4%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.48

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.5%	29.2%	1.11×	3.07
Everton to score exactly 0	24.6%	23.3%	21.9%	1.07×	4.29
Everton to score exactly 2	24.2%	23.3%	26.2%	0.89×	4.29
Everton to score 3+	16.7%	18.8%	22.9%	0.82×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.3%	42.7%	40.0%	1.07×	2.34
Chelsea leading at HT	29.9%	25.1%	24.2%	1.04×	3.98
Everton leading at HT	28.8%	25.1%	35.9%	0.70×	3.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea -1: 1	58.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Chelsea -1: 2	21.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Chelsea -1: X	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (0:1)	66.2%	65.2%	57.1%	1.14×	1.54
Draw (0:1)	18.4%	17.8%	19.1%	0.94×	5.61
Everton (0:1)	15.4%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (0:2)	84.6%	83.0%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	9.8%	7.7%	13.1%	0.59×	12.99
Everton (0:2)	5.6%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (0:3)	94.4%	92.7%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.9%	2.4%	7.7%	0.31×	42.06
Everton (0:3)	1.7%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (0:4)	98.3%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	82.10
Everton (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.3%	0.91×	82.19

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (1:0)	58.0%	58.4%	67.7%	0.86×	1.71
Chelsea (1:0)	21.2%	21.7%	15.7%	1.38×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	20.9%	21.7%	16.6%	1.30×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (2:0)	78.9%	80.6%	84.3%	0.96×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.6%	10.3%	9.2%	1.11×	9.72
Chelsea (2:0)	8.6%	6.4%	6.6%	0.97×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.8%	48.8%	49.8%	0.98×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.3%	25.7%	1.02×	3.80
Halves equal	23.4%	24.2%	24.6%	0.98×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to concede	79.6%	76.1%	75.0%	1.01×	1.31
Everton clean sheet	20.4%	23.9%	25.0%	0.96×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton clean sheet in 1st half	53.6%	55.8%	59.7%	0.93×	1.79
Everton to concede in 1st half	46.4%	44.2%	40.3%	1.10×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to concede in 2nd half	61.9%	59.9%	57.9%	1.03×	1.67
Everton clean sheet in 2nd half	38.1%	40.1%	42.1%	0.95×	2.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 6.5 corners	82.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Everton over 2.5 corners	73.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Everton under 5.5 corners	72.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Everton under 4.5 corners	58.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Everton over 3.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Everton under 3.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.36
Everton over 4.5 corners	41.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.36
Everton over 5.5 corners	27.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Everton under 2.5 corners	26.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Everton over 6.5 corners	17.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 3.5 goals	94.6%	92.2%	91.5%	1.01×	1.08
Everton under 2.5 goals	83.3%	82.2%	77.1%	1.07×	1.22
Everton over 0.5 goals	75.4%	77.7%	78.1%	0.99×	1.29
Everton under 1.5 goals	59.1%	58.7%	51.0%	1.15×	1.70
Everton over 1.5 goals	40.9%	41.3%	49.0%	0.84×	2.42
Everton under 0.5 goals	24.6%	22.3%	21.9%	1.02×	4.49
Everton over 2.5 goals	16.7%	17.8%	22.9%	0.78×	5.62
Everton over 3.5 goals	5.4%	7.8%	8.5%	0.91×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 1.5 in 1st half	87.6%	89.6%	84.4%	1.06×	1.12
Everton under 0.5 in 1st half	54.5%	50.6%	48.9%	1.04×	1.98
Everton over 0.5 in 1st half	45.5%	49.4%	51.1%	0.97×	2.03
Everton over 1.5 in 1st half	12.4%	10.4%	15.6%	0.67×	9.65

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton scores equally in both	38.0%	38.0%	37.7%	1.01×	2.63
Everton scores more in 2nd half	36.6%	38.0%	36.2%	1.05×	2.63
Everton scores more in 1st half	25.4%	27.9%	26.2%	1.06×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (home no bet)	63.4%	60.0%	56.5%	1.06×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	36.6%	40.0%	43.5%	0.92×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton even goals	53.0%	50.7%	54.2%	0.94×	1.97
Everton odd goals	47.0%	49.3%	45.8%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.2%	28.3%	28.3%	1.00×	3.53
HT 0-1	18.2%	18.7%	14.6%	1.28×	5.35
HT 1-0	17.7%	18.7%	21.4%	0.87×	5.35
HT 1-1	11.1%	10.8%	10.9%	1.00×	9.22
HT 0-2	5.7%	6.9%	4.4%	1.57×	14.40
HT 2-0	5.4%	6.9%	8.1%	0.86×	14.41
Any other HT score	4.9%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.91
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.00
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.4%	3.7%	0.65×	42.01
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	1.0%	2.38×	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea at HT / Chelsea at FT	23.0%	21.6%	16.7%	1.29×	4.63
Everton at HT / Everton at FT	19.8%	16.8%	26.2%	0.64×	5.94
Draw at HT / Chelsea at FT	15.8%	16.8%	12.3%	1.36×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.7%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.87
Draw at HT / Everton at FT	11.9%	12.7%	14.0%	0.91×	7.88
Everton at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	6.4%	0.94×	16.64
Chelsea at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	4.7%	0.73×	28.76
Everton at HT / Chelsea at FT	3.3%	3.5%	3.4%	1.02×	28.82
Chelsea at HT / Everton at FT	2.1%	3.5%	2.9%	1.19×	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score last	50.5%	51.8%	45.0%	1.15×	1.93
Everton to score last	44.5%	40.2%	50.1%	0.80×	2.49
No goal scored	5.0%	7.4%	5.0%	1.49×	13.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.0%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Chelsea to lead by 1 at any time	59.4%	55.1%	51.5%	1.07×	1.82
Everton to lead by 1 at any time	52.4%	50.8%	62.1%	0.82×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.0%	50.7%	50.6%	1.00×	1.97
Chelsea to lead by 2 at any time	28.3%	25.5%	21.1%	1.21×	3.93
Everton to lead by 2 at any time	22.0%	19.7%	29.8%	0.66×	5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.5%	15.1%	21.3%	0.71×	6.64
Chelsea to lead by 3 at any time	11.0%	10.4%	8.2%	1.28×	9.61
Everton to lead by 3 at any time	7.5%	6.7%	13.2%	0.51×	14.88

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea most corners	59.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Everton most corners	30.7%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	76.7%	78.7%	77.9%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.7%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.7%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.3%	64.6%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.9%	59.1%	59.6%	0.99×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.2%	53.2%	55.9%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.2%	48.5%	52.0%	0.93×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	41.5%	0.94×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.5%	39.2%	36.4%	1.08×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.8%	35.2%	32.8%	1.07×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.8%	30.2%	28.9%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.0%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.32
7+ goals	3.3%	2.6%	2.8%	0.90×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea never behind	42.6%	48.3%	37.9%	1.27×	2.07
Everton never behind	35.5%	44.0%	48.5%	0.91×	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.1%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.9%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.8%	53.8%	0.96×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.2%	46.2%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.7%	82.3%	82.8%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.0%	77.3%	81.8%	0.95×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	64.9%	61.8%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.5%	58.6%	58.7%	1.00×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.5%	41.4%	41.3%	1.00×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.1%	38.2%	35.5%	1.08×	2.62
Under 1.5 goals	20.1%	22.7%	18.2%	1.24×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	18.3%	17.7%	17.2%	1.03×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	6.7%	1.15×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	5.0%	1.55×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.8%	92.4%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.0%	76.0%	78.9%	0.96×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.1%	72.4%	76.3%	0.95×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.8%	51.9%	53.8%	0.97×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.2%	48.1%	46.2%	1.04×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.9%	27.6%	23.7%	1.16×	3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.0%	24.0%	21.1%	1.14×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.2%	7.6%	7.5%	1.01×	13.13
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	2.9%	0.95×	35.66

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.0%	87.3%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.8%	71.7%	1.00×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.1%	68.5%	64.1%	1.07×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.9%	31.5%	35.9%	0.88×	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.2%	28.3%	1.00×	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.7%	11.0%	12.7%	0.87×	9.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.8%	83.3%	84.8%	0.98×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.2%	77.3%	75.6%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.5%	52.7%	54.5%	0.97×	1.90
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.5%	47.3%	45.5%	1.04×	2.11
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.8%	22.7%	24.4%	0.93×	4.41
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.2%	16.7%	15.2%	1.10×	5.99

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to score in both halves	75.1%	78.3%	68.6%	1.14×	1.28
Chelsea not to score in both halves	71.2%	73.8%	76.9%	0.96×	1.36
Chelsea to score in both halves	28.8%	26.2%	23.1%	1.13×	3.81
Everton to score in both halves	24.9%	21.7%	31.4%	0.69×	4.61

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.0%	58.8%	58.2%	1.01×	1.70
Only Chelsea scores	19.6%	16.0%	17.0%	0.95×	6.23
Only Everton scores	15.4%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Neither team scores	5.0%	7.1%	5.0%	1.43×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.5%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.8%	17.5%	18.4%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.0%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	10.0%	12.1%	10.6%	1.15×	8.26
6 or more goals	8.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.11
Exactly 0 goals	5.0%	7.6%	5.0%	1.53×	13.13

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	35.9%	1.04×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.2%	28.5%	28.3%	1.01×	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	22.1%	21.5%	23.2%	0.93×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	12.7%	10.9%	12.7%	0.86×	9.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.0%	54.5%	0.94×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.3%	33.7%	30.4%	1.11×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	17.2%	16.6%	15.2%	1.09×	6.03

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to win both halves	91.7%	94.2%	86.5%	1.09×	1.06
Chelsea not to win both halves	88.6%	88.0%	91.3%	0.96×	1.14
Chelsea to win both halves	11.4%	12.0%	8.7%	1.38×	8.36
Everton to win both halves	8.3%	5.9%	13.5%	0.43×	17.09

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win either half	56.6%	59.1%	48.3%	1.22×	1.69
Everton to win neither half	50.8%	54.2%	41.4%	1.31×	1.85
Everton to win either half	49.2%	45.8%	58.6%	0.78×	2.18
Chelsea to win neither half	43.4%	40.9%	51.7%	0.79×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to win to nil	84.6%	83.1%	80.0%	1.04×	1.20
Chelsea not to win to nil	80.4%	83.1%	83.0%	1.00×	1.20
Chelsea to win to nil	19.6%	16.9%	17.0%	1.00×	5.91
Everton to win to nil	15.4%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.2%	24.1%	24.9%	0.97×	4.14
Chelsea by 1	20.9%	24.1%	16.6%	1.45×	4.15
Everton by 1	18.4%	17.0%	19.1%	0.89×	5.87
Chelsea by 2	12.6%	11.7%	9.2%	1.27×	8.51
Everton by 2	9.8%	7.2%	13.1%	0.55×	13.88
Chelsea by 3+	8.6%	7.2%	6.6%	1.10×	13.89
Everton by 3+	5.6%	7.2%	10.9%	0.66×	13.90

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Everton 0.57 xGChelsea 1.61 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Everton attacking right Chelsea attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
14'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Pedro Neto
20'	Chelsea	Jordan Henderson	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Pedro Neto
25'	Everton	Merlin Röhl	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
26'	Everton	Thierno Barry	0.27	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Jack Grealish
29'	Everton	Jack Grealish	0.06	Set Piece	Right Foot	Saved Shot	James Tarkowski
36'	Everton	Thierno Barry	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Vitalii Mykolenko
39'	Chelsea	Moisés Caicedo	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Shot On Post	Jordan Henderson
45'	Chelsea	Pedro Neto	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Cole Palmer
45'	Chelsea	Pedro Neto	0.42	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
47'	Chelsea	Maxence Lacroix	0.14	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Jordan Henderson
52'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Pedro Neto
55'	Chelsea	Morgan Rogers	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Pedro Neto
55'	Chelsea	Morgan Rogers	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Moisés Caicedo
56'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Morgan Rogers
63'	Chelsea	João Pedro	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Pedro Neto
81'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.02	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Josh Acheampong
81'	Chelsea	João Pedro	0.04	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Jordan Henderson
85'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.02	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	—
85'	Chelsea	João Pedro	0.37	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Cole Palmer
86'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Morgan Rogers
87'	Everton	Jarrad Branthwaite	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
87'	Everton	Thierno Barry	0.04	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Vitalii Mykolenko
89'	Chelsea	Jordan Henderson	0.06	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
89'	Chelsea	Pedro Neto	0.08	Set Piece	Left Foot	Goal	—

Players

Everton

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Thierno Barry FW	90	3	0	0.44	0.00	0.17
Jarrad Branthwaite DC	90	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.17
Merlin Röhl AMR	90	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Vitalii Mykolenko DL	90	0	2	0.00	0.17	0.17
James Garner DMC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
James Tarkowski DC	90	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.13
Jordan Pickford GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC	90	0	2	0.00	0.03	0.16
Jack Grealish AML	88	1	1	0.06	0.27	0.13
Harrison Armstrong DMC	88	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR	58	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Tyrique George Sub	32	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Christian Nørgaard Sub	2	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Brennan Johnson Sub	2	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Chelsea

Player	Min	G	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Pedro Neto AMR	90	2	3	5	0.51	0.30	0.74
João Pedro FW	90	0	3	0	0.46	0.00	0.44
Cole Palmer AMC	90	0	6	2	0.19	0.39	0.64
Morgan Rogers AML	90	0	2	2	0.16	0.11	0.35
Jordan Henderson DMC	90	0	2	3	0.14	0.20	0.37
Maxence Lacroix DC	90	0	1	0	0.14	0.00	0.09
Moisés Caicedo DMC	90	0	1	1	0.02	0.02	0.30
Jorrel Hato DL	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.12
Josh Acheampong DR	90	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.28
Levi Colwill DC	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Emiliano Martinez GK	78	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mike Penders Sub	12	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Marco Palestra Sub	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Geovany Quenda Sub	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Danny Welbeck Sub	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Romeo Lavia Sub	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Everton v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

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The price

Why Everton

Why the draw is live

Why Chelsea can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Everton

Chelsea

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