Everton v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 15
On target
7 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 11
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.91 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.52 – -1.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
36.2%
Draw
30.2%
Crystal Palace win
33.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.13–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.40 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 2.52 xGCrystal Palace 2.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 1' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 1' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 11' |
Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Lacroix |
| 16' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 18' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Yeremi Pino |
| 26' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 36' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ismaila Sarr |
| 47' |
Everton |
Jake O'Brien | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | James Garner |
| 48' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 56' |
Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 59' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 62' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 75' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 77' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 89' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Beto |
| 91' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 92' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.69 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 96' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 101' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Richards |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Grealish AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Michael Keane DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Tyler Dibling AMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 0.57 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.67 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Seamus Coleman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.89 |
| Yeremi Pino AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.48 |
| Daichi Kamada MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Eddie Nketiah Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Christantus Uche Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |