Everton v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Everton

15:00 UTC

Liverpool

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 892h before kick-off

Everton win

27.8%

model 29.2%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.9%

Liverpool win

49.2%

model 47.0%

282349

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
1-2 9.4%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 7.3%
2-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.1%	Under 2.5	42.9%
BTTS yes	59.0%	BTTS no	41.0%
Everton 1+	72.3%	Everton 2+	36.7%
Liverpool 1+	81.5%	Liverpool 2+	50.3%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.69. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Liverpool or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 57%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Liverpool over 0.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 75%

82.5% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Liverpool carry the stronger rating, 1711 Elo against 1565.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Liverpool average 1.65 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Liverpool have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.8% for Everton and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.28 for Everton and 1.69 for Liverpool.

Why Everton

At home Everton average 1.40 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Liverpool were missing 0.93 expected goal involvements a match against 0.55.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Liverpool can win

Liverpool carry the stronger rating, 1711 Elo against 1565. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Liverpool average 1.65 xG a match.

Key players

Everton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Thierno Barry (0.42), Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (0.37), Iliman Ndiaye (0.29). Liverpool's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mohamed Salah (0.51), Alexander Isak (0.39), Dominik Szoboszlai (0.37).

Availability

1 of Everton's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Liverpool's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Liverpool's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Everton: 49% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.38 xG a match from set pieces. Liverpool: 50% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Liverpool are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Everton are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLLWDDDWDL last 10 scored 11 from 15.4 xG conceded 13 from 16.3 xG

Liverpool are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DLDDDWDWLW last 10 scored 13 from 15.7 xG conceded 14 from 14.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	292447	1.28–1.69	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	382735	1.48–1.41	1-1 13%	55%	59%
dc-xg	292546	1.23–1.60	1-1 12%	54%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to win	42.1%	42.9%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Everton to win	34.3%	30.4%	43.0%	0.71×	3.29
Draw	23.6%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool & both teams score	23.6%	21.8%	15.3%	1.42×	4.58
Everton & both teams score	19.5%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Liverpool & not both score	18.5%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.57
Everton & not both score	14.7%	13.3%	20.1%	0.66×	7.53
Draw & not both score	4.4%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool & over 1.5	34.9%	30.8%	25.3%	1.21×	3.25
Liverpool & over 2.5	28.9%	26.1%	19.8%	1.32×	3.84
Everton & over 1.5	27.8%	26.1%	36.6%	0.71×	3.84
Liverpool & under 3.5	25.4%	26.1%	21.9%	1.19×	3.84
Everton & over 2.5	23.1%	21.6%	30.3%	0.71×	4.63
Everton & under 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Liverpool & over 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.1%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Everton & over 3.5	12.9%	12.8%	16.5%	0.78×	7.79
Liverpool & under 2.5	13.2%	12.8%	12.6%	1.02×	7.79
Everton & under 2.5	11.2%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.6%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.6%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Liverpool & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.1%	1.12×	12.63
Everton & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.4%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (1UP)	60.1%	62.7%	51.5%	1.22×	1.60
Everton (1UP)	53.5%	52.6%	62.0%	0.85×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (2UP)	42.1%	47.1%	34.5%	1.37×	2.12
Everton (2UP)	34.3%	30.6%	44.7%	0.68×	3.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to win 2nd half	38.3%	36.1%	32.8%	1.10×	2.77
Everton to win 2nd half	31.1%	34.3%	36.2%	0.95×	2.92
2nd half drawn	30.6%	34.3%	31.1%	1.10×	2.92

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.8%	75.1%	79.9%	0.94×	1.33
Liverpool over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.9%	70.0%	57.8%	1.21×	1.43
Liverpool under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.1%	30.0%	42.2%	0.71×	3.33
Liverpool over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.2%	24.9%	20.1%	1.24×	4.02

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.9%	75.4%	75.2%	1.00×	1.33
Everton over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.8%	63.1%	58.3%	1.08×	1.58
Everton under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.2%	36.9%	41.7%	0.89×	2.71
Everton over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.1%	24.6%	24.8%	0.99×	4.06

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (+2.5)	94.0%	92.1%	89.1%	1.03×	1.09
Liverpool (+1.5)	84.0%	82.5%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Liverpool (+0.5)	65.7%	68.7%	57.0%	1.20×	1.46
Everton (+0.5)	57.9%	57.0%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75
Liverpool (-0.5)	42.1%	43.0%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Everton (-0.5)	34.3%	31.3%	43.0%	0.73×	3.19
Everton (-1.5)	16.0%	17.5%	24.0%	0.73×	5.73
Everton (-2.5)	6.0%	7.9%	10.9%	0.72×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to concede	77.1%	78.8%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
Liverpool clean sheet	22.9%	21.2%	21.9%	0.97×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool clean sheet in 1st half	58.5%	57.0%	48.8%	1.17×	1.75
Liverpool to concede in 1st half	41.5%	43.0%	51.2%	0.84×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to concede in 2nd half	60.8%	61.6%	58.3%	1.06×	1.63
Liverpool clean sheet in 2nd half	39.2%	38.4%	41.7%	0.92×	2.60

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool over 2.5 corners	88.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Liverpool over 3.5 corners	77.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Liverpool over 4.5 corners	65.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Liverpool under 6.5 corners	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Liverpool over 5.5 corners	51.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Liverpool under 5.5 corners	48.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Liverpool over 6.5 corners	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Liverpool under 4.5 corners	34.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Liverpool under 3.5 corners	22.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Liverpool under 2.5 corners	11.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool under 3.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Liverpool over 0.5 goals	80.9%	81.4%	75.0%	1.09×	1.23
Liverpool under 2.5 goals	76.9%	76.3%	85.1%	0.90×	1.31
Liverpool under 1.5 goals	50.7%	53.5%	60.6%	0.88×	1.87
Liverpool over 1.5 goals	49.3%	46.5%	39.4%	1.18×	2.15
Liverpool over 2.5 goals	23.1%	23.7%	14.9%	1.59×	4.21
Liverpool under 0.5 goals	19.1%	18.6%	25.0%	0.74×	5.39
Liverpool over 3.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	5.4%	1.43×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool under 1.5 in 1st half	88.4%	89.4%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Liverpool under 0.5 in 1st half	55.9%	61.9%	59.7%	1.04×	1.62
Liverpool over 0.5 in 1st half	44.1%	38.1%	40.3%	0.95×	2.62
Liverpool over 1.5 in 1st half	11.6%	10.6%	10.7%	0.99×	9.39

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool scores more in 2nd half	47.3%	48.2%	40.8%	1.18×	2.08
Liverpool scores equally in both	33.0%	33.7%	37.5%	0.90×	2.97
Liverpool scores more in 1st half	19.7%	18.2%	21.7%	0.84×	5.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (away no bet)	59.2%	57.4%	63.5%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.8%	42.6%	36.5%	1.17×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool even goals	51.8%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Liverpool odd goals	48.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.6%	82.7%	80.0%	1.03×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.4%	17.3%	20.0%	0.87×	5.78

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.1%	67.3%	70.1%	0.96×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.9%	32.7%	29.9%	1.09×	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.6%	60.1%	61.6%	0.98×	1.66
Liverpool to score 2+ in a row	39.0%	36.7%	29.7%	1.24×	2.73
Everton to score 2+ in a row	32.8%	29.2%	39.2%	0.75×	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.0%	19.7%	26.1%	0.75×	5.09
Liverpool to score 3+ in a row	14.1%	12.1%	10.1%	1.20×	8.27
Everton to score 3+ in a row	10.4%	12.0%	16.4%	0.73×	8.34

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool corners (+3.5)	91.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Liverpool corners (+2.5)	86.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Liverpool corners (+1.5)	80.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Everton corners (+3.5)	67.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Everton corners (+2.5)	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Liverpool corners (-1.5)	52.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Everton corners (+1.5)	47.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Liverpool corners (-2.5)	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Liverpool corners (-3.5)	32.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Everton corners (-1.5)	19.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Everton corners (-2.5)	13.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Everton corners (-3.5)	8.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	34.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	63.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	34.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	26.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	26.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.7%	11.5%	11.4%	1.01×	8.72
1-2	8.8%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.50
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
2-2	6.5%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
0-2	6.0%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
1-0	6.4%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
1-3	4.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.29
2-0	4.8%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.29
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32
Any other score	4.4%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.29
0-0	4.4%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.29
0-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.30
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
1-4	2.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.31
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
3-2	3.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (2nd half DNB)	55.2%	59.3%	47.5%	1.25×	1.69
Everton (2nd half DNB)	44.8%	40.7%	52.5%	0.77×	2.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool leading at HT (DNB)	52.6%	54.9%	40.2%	1.36×	1.82
Everton leading at HT (DNB)	47.4%	45.1%	59.8%	0.76×	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton or Liverpool (12)	76.4%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Liverpool or draw (X2)	65.7%	69.6%	57.0%	1.22×	1.44
Everton or draw (1X)	57.9%	57.1%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool or draw at HT	73.3%	75.1%	63.9%	1.18×	1.33
Everton or draw at HT	70.4%	75.0%	75.7%	0.99×	1.33
Everton or Liverpool at HT	56.3%	57.1%	60.2%	0.95×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool or draw (1UP)	65.7%	76.1%	65.3%	1.17×	1.31
Everton or draw (1UP)	57.9%	63.1%	74.3%	0.85×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton or Liverpool in 2nd half	69.4%	65.7%	68.9%	0.95×	1.52
Liverpool or draw in 2nd half	68.9%	65.7%	63.8%	1.03×	1.52
Everton or draw in 2nd half	61.7%	63.9%	67.2%	0.95×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.0%	61.4%	57.1%	1.07×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.0%	38.6%	42.9%	0.90×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (DNB)	55.1%	58.0%	42.9%	1.35×	1.72
Everton (DNB)	44.9%	42.0%	57.1%	0.74×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to score first	50.6%	53.2%	43.3%	1.23×	1.88
Everton to score first	45.0%	45.9%	51.8%	0.89×	2.18
No goal scored	4.4%	4.3%	5.0%	0.87×	23.23

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.4%	56.6%	58.0%	0.98×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.6%	43.4%	42.0%	1.03×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.7%	47.2%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.8%	33.3%	30.2%	1.10×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.7%	12.4%	11.4%	1.08×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.6%	79.7%	82.1%	0.97×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	21.4%	20.3%	17.9%	1.13×	4.92

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	59.9%	65.3%	68.6%	0.95×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	40.1%	34.7%	31.4%	1.10×	2.88

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.0%	53.0%	55.9%	0.95×	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	32.7%	27.3%	24.7%	1.11×	3.66
Both score 1st half only	11.0%	10.7%	12.8%	0.83×	9.38
Both score in both halves	7.3%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.7%	83.2%	80.4%	1.03×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.3%	16.8%	19.6%	0.86×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.3%	57.4%	61.6%	0.93×	1.74
A half without a goal	41.7%	42.6%	38.4%	1.11×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.8%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.37
4-6 goals	34.1%	30.8%	32.8%	0.94×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.1%	20.2%	18.3%	1.11×	4.94
7+ goals	4.0%	1.8%	2.8%	0.66×	54.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to score exactly 1	31.6%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Liverpool to score exactly 2	26.2%	27.4%	24.5%	1.12×	3.66
Liverpool to score 3+	23.1%	22.3%	14.9%	1.49×	4.48
Liverpool to score exactly 0	19.1%	19.6%	25.0%	0.78×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to score exactly 1	33.8%	32.6%	29.2%	1.11×	3.07
Everton to score exactly 2	24.9%	23.3%	26.1%	0.89×	4.29
Everton to score exactly 0	22.9%	23.3%	21.9%	1.06×	4.29
Everton to score 3+	18.5%	18.8%	22.9%	0.82×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.7%	42.9%	39.8%	1.08×	2.33
Liverpool leading at HT	29.6%	25.0%	24.3%	1.03×	4.00
Everton leading at HT	26.7%	24.9%	36.1%	0.69×	4.02

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool -1: 1	57.9%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Liverpool -1: 2	21.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Liverpool -1: X	20.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (0:1)	65.7%	65.2%	57.0%	1.14×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.2%	17.8%	19.1%	0.94×	5.61
Everton (0:1)	16.0%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (0:2)	84.0%	83.0%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.0%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.11
Everton (0:2)	6.0%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (0:3)	94.0%	92.7%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.2%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	42.01
Everton (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.95
Everton (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	82.05

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (1:0)	57.9%	58.3%	67.7%	0.86×	1.71
Liverpool (1:0)	21.6%	21.7%	15.7%	1.38×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	20.5%	21.7%	16.7%	1.29×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (2:0)	78.4%	80.5%	84.3%	0.95×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.6%	10.3%	9.2%	1.11×	9.72
Liverpool (2:0)	9.0%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	58.0%	59.6%	49.6%	1.20×	1.68
Halves equal	21.3%	24.3%	24.7%	0.99×	4.11
1st half highest scoring	20.6%	24.3%	25.8%	0.94×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to concede	80.9%	80.8%	75.0%	1.08×	1.24
Everton clean sheet	19.1%	19.2%	25.0%	0.77×	5.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton clean sheet in 1st half	55.9%	61.9%	59.7%	1.04×	1.62
Everton to concede in 1st half	44.1%	38.1%	40.3%	0.95×	2.62

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to concede in 2nd half	65.9%	67.0%	57.8%	1.16×	1.49
Everton clean sheet in 2nd half	34.1%	33.0%	42.2%	0.78×	3.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 6.5 corners	83.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Everton under 5.5 corners	73.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Everton over 2.5 corners	73.2%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Everton under 4.5 corners	60.0%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Everton over 3.5 corners	56.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Everton under 3.5 corners	43.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Everton over 4.5 corners	40.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Everton under 2.5 corners	26.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Everton over 5.5 corners	26.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Everton over 6.5 corners	16.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 3.5 goals	93.8%	92.2%	91.5%	1.01×	1.08
Everton under 2.5 goals	81.5%	82.2%	77.1%	1.07×	1.22
Everton over 0.5 goals	77.1%	77.7%	78.1%	1.00×	1.29
Everton under 1.5 goals	56.7%	58.6%	51.1%	1.15×	1.71
Everton over 1.5 goals	43.3%	41.4%	48.9%	0.85×	2.42
Everton under 0.5 goals	22.9%	22.3%	21.9%	1.01×	4.49
Everton over 2.5 goals	18.5%	17.8%	22.9%	0.78×	5.62
Everton over 3.5 goals	6.2%	7.8%	8.5%	0.91×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 1.5 in 1st half	89.8%	90.3%	84.4%	1.07×	1.11
Everton under 0.5 in 1st half	58.5%	56.8%	48.8%	1.16×	1.76
Everton over 0.5 in 1st half	41.5%	43.2%	51.2%	0.85×	2.31
Everton over 1.5 in 1st half	10.2%	9.7%	15.6%	0.62×	10.32

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton scores more in 2nd half	43.7%	42.1%	36.1%	1.17×	2.38
Everton scores equally in both	36.0%	37.9%	37.7%	1.00×	2.64
Everton scores more in 1st half	20.3%	21.1%	26.3%	0.80×	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (home no bet)	64.1%	60.0%	56.6%	1.06×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	35.9%	40.0%	43.4%	0.92×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton even goals	52.6%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Everton odd goals	47.4%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.7%	33.4%	28.1%	1.19×	3.00
HT 0-1	19.0%	18.6%	14.8%	1.26×	5.37
HT 1-0	17.6%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.38
HT 1-1	10.2%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.09
HT 0-2	5.5%	6.9%	4.4%	1.58×	14.51
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.4%	8.0%	0.30×	41.97
Any other HT score	3.8%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.03
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.08
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.10
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool at HT / Liverpool at FT	22.0%	21.8%	16.7%	1.30×	4.59
Everton at HT / Everton at FT	18.0%	16.7%	26.4%	0.63×	5.98
Draw at HT / Liverpool at FT	16.7%	16.7%	12.3%	1.36×	5.98
Draw at HT / Everton at FT	13.6%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.4%	12.7%	13.8%	0.92×	7.90
Everton at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	6.4%	0.94×	16.68
Liverpool at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.58
Everton at HT / Liverpool at FT	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.64
Liverpool at HT / Everton at FT	2.6%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.67

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to score last	50.6%	52.0%	45.1%	1.16×	1.92
Everton to score last	45.0%	46.4%	50.1%	0.93×	2.16
No goal scored	4.4%	4.3%	5.0%	0.87×	23.23

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.6%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Liverpool to lead by 1 at any time	60.1%	61.3%	51.5%	1.19×	1.63
Everton to lead by 1 at any time	53.5%	50.9%	62.0%	0.82×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.0%	50.9%	50.6%	1.01×	1.97
Liverpool to lead by 2 at any time	29.2%	25.6%	21.0%	1.22×	3.91
Everton to lead by 2 at any time	23.1%	19.7%	29.9%	0.66×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.8%	15.0%	21.2%	0.71×	6.67
Liverpool to lead by 3 at any time	11.6%	10.4%	8.1%	1.29×	9.58
Everton to lead by 3 at any time	8.2%	6.7%	13.2%	0.51×	14.87

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool most corners	62.7%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Everton most corners	27.7%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	9.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.9%	87.4%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.9%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.9%	72.4%	77.9%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.3%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.5%	59.1%	59.7%	0.99×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.5%	59.1%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.8%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.8%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.8%	39.2%	41.3%	0.95×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.1%	39.2%	36.6%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	34.1%	35.2%	32.8%	1.08×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.4%	30.2%	28.9%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.7%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.31
7+ goals	4.0%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.04

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool never behind	42.1%	48.5%	38.0%	1.28×	2.06
Everton never behind	35.5%	43.9%	48.5%	0.91×	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.6%	53.5%	1.08×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.4%	46.5%	0.91×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.6%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.3%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.9%	82.3%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.3%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	61.8%	61.7%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	60.5%	61.7%	58.5%	1.06×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	39.5%	38.3%	41.5%	0.92×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	38.2%	38.3%	35.5%	1.08×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.7%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	18.1%	17.7%	18.3%	0.97×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.7%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	4.4%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.7%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.1%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.0%	75.9%	76.2%	1.00×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.9%	72.4%	78.9%	0.92×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.9%	51.9%	53.9%	0.96×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.1%	48.1%	46.1%	1.04×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.1%	27.6%	21.1%	1.31×	3.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.0%	24.1%	23.8%	1.01×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.9%	13.3%	7.5%	1.77×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.3%	2.8%	2.9%	0.96×	35.53

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.7%	89.3%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.3%	68.5%	64.3%	1.07×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.3%	68.4%	71.9%	0.95×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.7%	31.6%	28.1%	1.12×	3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.7%	31.5%	35.7%	0.88×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.7%	12.8%	0.84×	9.31

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.6%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.4%	68.7%	75.7%	0.91×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.7%	55.0%	54.4%	1.01×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.3%	45.0%	45.6%	0.99×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.6%	31.3%	24.3%	1.29×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.4%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to score in both halves	74.7%	74.0%	68.6%	1.08×	1.35
Liverpool not to score in both halves	71.0%	73.8%	76.9%	0.96×	1.35
Liverpool to score in both halves	29.0%	26.2%	23.1%	1.13×	3.82
Everton to score in both halves	25.3%	26.0%	31.4%	0.83×	3.85

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.4%	60.3%	58.0%	1.04×	1.66
Only Liverpool scores	18.5%	16.0%	17.1%	0.94×	6.24
Only Everton scores	14.7%	11.0%	20.1%	0.55×	9.05
Neither team scores	4.4%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.66

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.4%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.5%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.7%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	10.9%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.7%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.4%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.67
No goals in 1st half	32.7%	35.9%	28.1%	1.27×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.4%	21.5%	23.0%	0.93×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	10.3%	10.7%	12.8%	0.83×	9.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.7%	54.3%	54.4%	1.00×	1.84
1 goal in 2nd half	26.9%	29.3%	30.4%	0.96×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	13.4%	14.3%	15.3%	0.94×	6.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to win both halves	91.7%	94.1%	86.4%	1.09×	1.06
Liverpool not to win both halves	88.7%	87.9%	91.3%	0.96×	1.14
Liverpool to win both halves	11.3%	12.1%	8.7%	1.39×	8.28
Everton to win both halves	8.3%	5.9%	13.6%	0.43×	16.92

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to win either half	56.5%	59.0%	48.4%	1.22×	1.69
Everton to win neither half	50.5%	54.2%	41.3%	1.31×	1.84
Everton to win either half	49.5%	45.8%	58.7%	0.78×	2.19
Liverpool to win neither half	43.5%	41.0%	51.7%	0.79×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to win to nil	85.3%	88.1%	79.9%	1.10×	1.14
Liverpool not to win to nil	81.5%	83.1%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Liverpool to win to nil	18.5%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.92
Everton to win to nil	14.7%	11.9%	20.1%	0.59×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.6%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Liverpool by 1	20.5%	24.1%	16.7%	1.44×	4.15
Everton by 1	18.2%	17.1%	19.1%	0.89×	5.87
Liverpool by 2	12.6%	11.8%	9.2%	1.27×	8.51
Everton by 2	10.0%	11.7%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
Liverpool by 3+	9.0%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.90
Everton by 3+	6.0%	7.2%	10.9%	0.66×	13.91