Everton v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 14
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.94 – +1.13
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyEverton win
30.1%
model 32.3%
Draw
22.8%
model 24.3%
Manchester United win
47.0%
model 43.4%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.3%
- 1-2 9.1%
- 0-1 8.4%
- 2-1 7.6%
- 1-0 7.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | Under 2.5 | 43.3% |
| BTTS yes | 59.2% | BTTS no | 40.8% |
| Everton 1+ | 74.1% | Everton 2+ | 39.1% |
| Manchester United 1+ | 79.9% | Manchester United 2+ | 47.6% |
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.60. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
94/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Everton to win neither half
Win either half · usually 41%
54.0% fair odds 1.85
strong signal · 1060 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time · usually 80%
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1695 Elo against 1591.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
- Away from home Manchester United average 1.37 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Manchester United have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 30.1% for Everton and 22.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Everton and 1.60 for Manchester United.
Why Everton
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Manchester United were missing 0.93 expected goal involvements a match against 0.47.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Manchester United can win
Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1695 Elo against 1591. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Manchester United average 1.37 xG a match.
Key players
Everton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (0.32), Thierno Barry (0.31), Iliman Ndiaye (0.29). Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.76), Bryan Mbeumo (0.52), Matheus Cunha (0.37).
Availability
Nothing reported for either side.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Everton: 48% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester United: 55% possession, 21.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Manchester United are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWDDDWDLL last 10
scored 9
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.3 xG
Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLWDLDDD last 10
scored 16
from 19.7 xG
conceded 12
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.35–1.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-goals | 1.38–1.43 | 1-1 13% | 53% | 58% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.19–1.70 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.20–1.69 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Away ✗ | |
| deep | 1.19–1.69 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 45.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 1.47× | 2.11 |
| Everton to win | 31.1% | 30.4% | 43.1% | 0.70× | 3.29 |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.4% | 24.6% | 0.99× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United & both teams score | 24.7% | 21.9% | 15.6% | 1.41× | 4.57 |
| Manchester United & not both score | 20.6% | 21.9% | 16.9% | 1.30× | 4.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.0% | 17.9% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.58 |
| Everton & both teams score | 17.5% | 17.9% | 22.8% | 0.78× | 5.58 |
| Everton & not both score | 13.6% | 13.3% | 20.4% | 0.65× | 7.55 |
| Draw & not both score | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 1.02× | 20.47 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United & over 1.5 | 37.5% | 34.9% | 25.5% | 1.37× | 2.86 |
| Manchester United & over 2.5 | 30.8% | 30.9% | 20.0% | 1.54× | 3.24 |
| Manchester United & under 3.5 | 27.5% | 26.0% | 21.7% | 1.20× | 3.84 |
| Everton & over 1.5 | 24.8% | 21.6% | 36.7% | 0.59× | 4.62 |
| Everton & over 2.5 | 20.4% | 21.6% | 30.2% | 0.72× | 4.62 |
| Everton & under 3.5 | 20.1% | 21.6% | 26.8% | 0.81× | 4.62 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.0% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Manchester United & over 3.5 | 17.9% | 18.0% | 10.7% | 1.68× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 15.3% | 18.0% | 16.3% | 1.11× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 15.3% | 18.0% | 16.3% | 1.11× | 5.56 |
| Manchester United & under 2.5 | 14.5% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 1.04× | 7.77 |
| Everton & under 2.5 | 10.6% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 0.99× | 7.78 |
| Everton & over 3.5 | 11.0% | 12.9% | 16.4% | 0.78× | 7.78 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 0.93× | 12.69 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 0.93× | 12.69 |
| Manchester United & under 1.5 | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 1.14× | 12.69 |
| Everton & under 1.5 | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 1.21× | 12.69 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 1.00× | 20.93 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (1UP) | 62.5% | 63.1% | 51.3% | 1.23× | 1.58 |
| Everton (1UP) | 50.4% | 52.6% | 62.2% | 0.85× | 1.90 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (2UP) | 45.3% | 49.7% | 34.6% | 1.44× | 2.01 |
| Everton (2UP) | 31.1% | 30.9% | 44.9% | 0.69× | 3.23 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win 2nd half | 41.8% | 41.2% | 32.9% | 1.25× | 2.43 |
| 2nd half drawn | 30.4% | 34.4% | 30.8% | 1.12× | 2.91 |
| Everton to win 2nd half | 27.8% | 26.3% | 36.4% | 0.72× | 3.81 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (+2.5) | 95.1% | 96.3% | 89.2% | 1.08× | 1.04 |
| Manchester United (+1.5) | 86.2% | 88.5% | 76.0% | 1.16× | 1.13 |
| Manchester United (+0.5) | 68.9% | 68.7% | 56.9% | 1.21× | 1.46 |
| Everton (+0.5) | 54.7% | 52.4% | 67.7% | 0.77× | 1.91 |
| Manchester United (-0.5) | 45.3% | 47.6% | 32.3% | 1.47× | 2.10 |
| Everton (-0.5) | 31.1% | 31.3% | 43.1% | 0.73× | 3.20 |
| Everton (-1.5) | 13.8% | 11.5% | 24.0% | 0.48× | 8.68 |
| Everton (-2.5) | 4.9% | 3.7% | 10.8% | 0.35× | 26.69 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to concede | 74.8% | 76.6% | 78.4% | 0.98× | 1.31 |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 25.2% | 23.4% | 21.6% | 1.09× | 4.27 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half | 60.2% | 64.6% | 48.6% | 1.33× | 1.55 |
| Manchester United to concede in 1st half | 39.8% | 35.4% | 51.4% | 0.69× | 2.83 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United over 2.5 corners | 80.2% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Manchester United under 6.5 corners | 77.4% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Manchester United under 5.5 corners | 65.7% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Manchester United over 3.5 corners | 65.0% | 61.4% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Manchester United under 4.5 corners | 51.2% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Manchester United over 4.5 corners | 48.8% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Manchester United under 3.5 corners | 35.0% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Manchester United over 5.5 corners | 34.3% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Manchester United over 6.5 corners | 22.6% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.13 |
| Manchester United under 2.5 corners | 19.8% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.24 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United under 3.5 goals | 90.6% | 92.3% | 94.5% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Manchester United over 0.5 goals | 81.9% | 81.5% | 74.9% | 1.09× | 1.23 |
| Manchester United under 2.5 goals | 75.6% | 76.2% | 84.9% | 0.90× | 1.31 |
| Manchester United over 1.5 goals | 50.9% | 53.7% | 39.4% | 1.36× | 1.86 |
| Manchester United under 1.5 goals | 49.1% | 46.3% | 60.6% | 0.76× | 2.16 |
| Manchester United over 2.5 goals | 24.4% | 23.8% | 15.1% | 1.58× | 4.20 |
| Manchester United under 0.5 goals | 18.2% | 18.5% | 25.1% | 0.74× | 5.40 |
| Manchester United over 3.5 goals | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.40× | 13.05 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half | 88.8% | 89.6% | 89.1% | 1.01× | 1.12 |
| Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half | 56.6% | 62.9% | 59.4% | 1.06× | 1.59 |
| Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half | 43.4% | 37.1% | 40.6% | 0.91× | 2.69 |
| Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 0.96× | 9.64 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton (away no bet) | 56.9% | 57.5% | 63.6% | 0.90× | 1.74 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 43.1% | 42.5% | 36.4% | 1.17× | 2.35 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United even goals | 51.6% | 52.7% | 53.6% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Manchester United odd goals | 48.4% | 47.3% | 46.4% | 1.02× | 2.12 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 82.6% | 83.2% | 80.1% | 1.04× | 1.20 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 17.4% | 16.8% | 19.9% | 0.84× | 5.95 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 71.4% | 66.8% | 70.2% | 0.95× | 1.50 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 33.2% | 29.8% | 1.11× | 3.01 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 62.0% | 59.5% | 61.5% | 0.97× | 1.68 |
| Manchester United to score 2+ in a row | 41.0% | 38.1% | 29.9% | 1.27× | 2.62 |
| Everton to score 2+ in a row | 29.7% | 25.2% | 39.1% | 0.65× | 3.96 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 23.8% | 19.4% | 26.3% | 0.74× | 5.17 |
| Manchester United to score 3+ in a row | 15.4% | 16.4% | 10.2% | 1.61× | 6.11 |
| Everton to score 3+ in a row | 8.8% | 5.6% | 16.5% | 0.34× | 17.82 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton corners (+3.5) | 86.0% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Manchester United corners (+3.5) | 80.2% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Everton corners (+2.5) | 79.0% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Manchester United corners (+2.5) | 71.9% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Everton corners (+1.5) | 70.3% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Manchester United corners (+1.5) | 62.0% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Everton corners (-1.5) | 38.0% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Manchester United corners (-1.5) | 29.7% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Everton corners (-2.5) | 28.1% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Manchester United corners (-2.5) | 21.0% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| Everton corners (-3.5) | 19.8% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.00 |
| Manchester United corners (-3.5) | 14.0% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.31 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 38.2% | 35.1% | — | — | 2.85 |
| 12+ corners | 31.0% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.13 |
| 9-11 corners | 30.7% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.13 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 77.0% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 72.2% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 69.0% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61.8% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 59.6% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50.9% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 49.1% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 40.4% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 38.2% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 31.0% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 27.8% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 23.0% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.28 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.99× | 8.73 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.46 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.46 |
| 0-2 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.34× | 13.46 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 0.84× | 13.46 |
| 1-0 | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 1.14× | 13.46 |
| 1-3 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 2.29× | 13.46 |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 0.99× | 13.46 |
| 0-0 | 4.6% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.36× | 58.57 |
| 0-3 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.67× | 58.57 |
| 0-4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.54× | 58.58 |
| 1-4 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.17× | 58.58 |
| 2-0 | 4.3% | 1.7% | 6.6% | 0.26× | 58.57 |
| 2-3 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.71× | 58.57 |
| 2-4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.49× | 58.58 |
| 3-0 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.34× | 58.58 |
| 3-1 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 0.31× | 58.57 |
| 3-2 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.55× | 58.58 |
| 3-3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.22× | 58.58 |
| 3-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.33× | 58.59 |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.25× | 58.59 |
| 4-1 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.77× | 58.59 |
| 4-2 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.25× | 58.59 |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.81× | 58.59 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 4.99× | 58.59 |
| Any other score | 4.3% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 0.41× | 58.57 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United leading at HT (DNB) | 53.7% | 55.8% | 40.4% | 1.38× | 1.79 |
| Everton leading at HT (DNB) | 46.3% | 44.2% | 59.6% | 0.74× | 2.26 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton or Manchester United (12) | 76.4% | 75.6% | 75.4% | 1.00× | 1.32 |
| Manchester United or draw (X2) | 68.9% | 69.6% | 56.9% | 1.22× | 1.44 |
| Everton or draw (1X) | 54.7% | 52.6% | 67.7% | 0.78× | 1.90 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United or draw at HT | 74.3% | 74.7% | 63.7% | 1.17× | 1.34 |
| Everton or draw at HT | 70.3% | 74.6% | 75.4% | 0.99× | 1.34 |
| Everton or Manchester United at HT | 55.4% | 56.7% | 60.7% | 0.93× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United or draw (1UP) | 68.9% | 76.0% | 65.1% | 1.17× | 1.32 |
| Everton or draw (1UP) | 54.7% | 58.9% | 74.3% | 0.79× | 1.70 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United or draw in 2nd half | 72.2% | 73.7% | 63.6% | 1.16× | 1.36 |
| Everton or Manchester United in 2nd half | 69.6% | 65.6% | 69.2% | 0.95× | 1.52 |
| Everton or draw in 2nd half | 58.2% | 58.8% | 67.1% | 0.88× | 1.70 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 61.5% | 61.5% | 56.6% | 1.09× | 1.63 |
| Neither half drawn | 38.5% | 38.5% | 43.4% | 0.89× | 2.60 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (DNB) | 59.3% | 58.2% | 42.9% | 1.36× | 1.72 |
| Everton (DNB) | 40.7% | 41.8% | 57.1% | 0.73× | 2.39 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to score first | 52.8% | 54.2% | 43.2% | 1.25× | 1.85 |
| Everton to score first | 42.6% | 41.7% | 52.1% | 0.80× | 2.40 |
| No goal scored | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 0.91× | 22.84 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 56.5% | 58.2% | 0.97× | 1.77 |
| Not both teams to score | 38.8% | 43.5% | 41.8% | 1.04× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 50.4% | 47.0% | 46.7% | 1.01× | 2.13 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 29.7% | 33.6% | 30.0% | 1.12× | 2.97 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 1.07× | 8.11 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.1% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 0.70× | 11.96 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 79.6% | 80.1% | 82.2% | 0.97× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 20.4% | 19.9% | 17.8% | 1.12× | 5.02 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 60.6% | 66.0% | 68.9% | 0.96× | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 39.5% | 34.0% | 31.1% | 1.09× | 2.94 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 50.1% | 56.0% | 55.9% | 1.00× | 1.79 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 32.6% | 27.5% | 24.6% | 1.12× | 3.63 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.5% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 0.80× | 9.57 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 1.00× | 14.95 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 82.7% | 82.9% | 80.4% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 17.3% | 17.1% | 19.6% | 0.87× | 5.84 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 57.1% | 57.3% | 62.0% | 0.92× | 1.75 |
| A half without a goal | 42.9% | 42.7% | 38.0% | 1.13× | 2.34 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 44.2% | 42.1% | 46.6% | 0.90× | 2.37 |
| 4-6 goals | 33.4% | 30.7% | 32.7% | 0.94× | 3.26 |
| 0-1 goals | 18.7% | 20.2% | 18.1% | 1.12× | 4.94 |
| 7+ goals | 3.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 0.64× | 55.04 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to score exactly 1 | 31.0% | 33.9% | 35.6% | 0.95× | 2.95 |
| Manchester United to score exactly 2 | 26.4% | 27.4% | 24.5% | 1.12× | 3.65 |
| Manchester United to score 3+ | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.1% | 1.49× | 4.47 |
| Manchester United to score exactly 0 | 18.2% | 19.5% | 25.1% | 0.78× | 5.12 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to score exactly 1 | 34.7% | 32.7% | 29.7% | 1.10× | 3.06 |
| Everton to score exactly 0 | 25.2% | 26.5% | 21.6% | 1.23× | 3.77 |
| Everton to score exactly 2 | 23.9% | 23.3% | 26.0% | 0.89× | 4.30 |
| Everton to score 3+ | 16.1% | 18.9% | 22.9% | 0.82× | 5.30 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 44.6% | 43.3% | 39.3% | 1.10× | 2.31 |
| Manchester United leading at HT | 29.7% | 25.5% | 24.6% | 1.04× | 3.93 |
| Everton leading at HT | 25.7% | 25.3% | 36.3% | 0.70× | 3.96 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United -1: 1 | 54.7% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Manchester United -1: 2 | 23.9% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
| Manchester United -1: X | 21.4% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (0:1) | 68.9% | 65.5% | 56.9% | 1.15× | 1.53 |
| Draw (0:1) | 17.3% | 17.8% | 19.2% | 0.93× | 5.62 |
| Everton (0:1) | 13.8% | 13.9% | 24.0% | 0.58× | 7.22 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (0:2) | 86.2% | 86.9% | 76.0% | 1.14× | 1.15 |
| Draw (0:2) | 8.9% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 0.58× | 12.96 |
| Everton (0:2) | 4.9% | 3.8% | 10.8% | 0.35× | 26.40 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (0:3) | 95.1% | 96.6% | 89.2% | 1.08× | 1.04 |
| Draw (0:3) | 3.5% | 2.4% | 7.5% | 0.32× | 41.99 |
| Everton (0:3) | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.71× | 42.08 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (0:4) | 98.6% | 98.1% | 96.7% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.58× | 83.35 |
| Everton (0:4) | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.88× | 83.44 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton (1:0) | 54.7% | 54.2% | 67.7% | 0.80× | 1.85 |
| Manchester United (1:0) | 23.9% | 21.7% | 15.8% | 1.37× | 4.60 |
| Draw (1:0) | 21.4% | 21.7% | 16.6% | 1.31× | 4.61 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton (2:0) | 76.1% | 80.3% | 84.2% | 0.95× | 1.25 |
| Draw (2:0) | 13.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 1.12× | 9.60 |
| Manchester United (2:0) | 10.2% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 1.58× | 9.64 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 58.9% | 60.7% | 49.7% | 1.22× | 1.65 |
| Halves equal | 21.3% | 24.2% | 24.6% | 0.98× | 4.13 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 19.8% | 19.2% | 25.7% | 0.74× | 5.21 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to concede | 81.9% | 80.8% | 74.9% | 1.08× | 1.24 |
| Everton clean sheet | 18.2% | 19.2% | 25.1% | 0.77× | 5.20 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton clean sheet in 1st half | 56.6% | 62.9% | 59.4% | 1.06× | 1.59 |
| Everton to concede in 1st half | 43.4% | 37.1% | 40.6% | 0.91× | 2.69 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton over 2.5 corners | 84.0% | 81.3% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Everton under 6.5 corners | 71.9% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Everton over 3.5 corners | 70.4% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Everton under 5.5 corners | 59.4% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Everton over 4.5 corners | 55.2% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Everton under 4.5 corners | 44.8% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Everton over 5.5 corners | 40.6% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Everton under 3.5 corners | 29.6% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Everton over 6.5 corners | 28.1% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Everton under 2.5 corners | 16.0% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.36 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton under 3.5 goals | 94.9% | 92.3% | 91.6% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Everton under 2.5 goals | 83.9% | 82.2% | 77.1% | 1.07× | 1.22 |
| Everton over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | 74.3% | 78.4% | 0.95× | 1.35 |
| Everton under 1.5 goals | 60.0% | 58.8% | 51.2% | 1.15× | 1.70 |
| Everton over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 41.2% | 48.8% | 0.84× | 2.43 |
| Everton under 0.5 goals | 25.2% | 25.8% | 21.6% | 1.19× | 3.88 |
| Everton over 2.5 goals | 16.1% | 17.8% | 22.9% | 0.78× | 5.60 |
| Everton over 3.5 goals | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 0.92× | 12.91 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton under 1.5 in 1st half | 90.7% | 95.4% | 84.4% | 1.13× | 1.05 |
| Everton under 0.5 in 1st half | 60.2% | 64.4% | 48.6% | 1.33× | 1.55 |
| Everton over 0.5 in 1st half | 39.8% | 35.6% | 51.4% | 0.69× | 2.81 |
| Everton over 1.5 in 1st half | 9.3% | 4.6% | 15.6% | 0.30× | 21.58 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (home no bet) | 65.8% | 63.7% | 56.8% | 1.12× | 1.57 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 34.2% | 36.3% | 43.2% | 0.84× | 2.76 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton even goals | 53.2% | 50.7% | 53.6% | 0.94× | 1.97 |
| Everton odd goals | 46.8% | 49.4% | 46.4% | 1.06× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 34.0% | 32.6% | 27.5% | 1.18× | 3.07 |
| HT 0-1 | 19.4% | 18.9% | 14.9% | 1.27× | 5.29 |
| HT 1-0 | 17.3% | 18.9% | 21.8% | 0.87× | 5.30 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.9% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 0.65× | 14.06 |
| HT 0-2 | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.56× | 14.13 |
| HT 2-0 | 4.4% | 2.2% | 8.1% | 0.28× | 44.59 |
| Any other HT score | 3.5% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 0.42× | 44.66 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 0.79× | 44.72 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 0.59× | 44.74 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 2.17× | 44.88 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT | 22.9% | 22.2% | 16.9% | 1.31× | 4.51 |
| Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT | 18.6% | 16.8% | 12.1% | 1.39× | 5.95 |
| Everton at HT / Everton at FT | 16.5% | 16.8% | 26.3% | 0.64× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 13.6% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 0.94× | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Everton at FT | 12.4% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.91× | 7.90 |
| Everton at HT / Draw at FT | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 0.91× | 16.63 |
| Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 0.72× | 29.10 |
| Everton at HT / Manchester United at FT | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.98× | 29.13 |
| Manchester United at HT / Everton at FT | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.14× | 29.20 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to score last | 52.8% | 51.9% | 45.0% | 1.15× | 1.93 |
| Everton to score last | 42.6% | 40.1% | 50.3% | 0.80× | 2.49 |
| No goal scored | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 0.91× | 22.84 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 95.4% | 95.6% | 95.2% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time | 62.5% | 61.5% | 51.3% | 1.20× | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 51.6% | 50.5% | 50.9% | 0.99× | 1.98 |
| Everton to lead by 1 at any time | 50.4% | 50.5% | 62.2% | 0.81× | 1.98 |
| Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time | 31.5% | 29.4% | 21.3% | 1.38× | 3.40 |
| Everton to lead by 2 at any time | 20.5% | 19.6% | 29.9% | 0.65× | 5.11 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 19.8% | 15.0% | 21.2% | 0.71× | 6.68 |
| Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time | 13.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 1.29× | 9.55 |
| Everton to lead by 3 at any time | 6.8% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 0.49× | 15.36 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton most corners | 48.9% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Manchester United most corners | 40.0% | 43.1% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Corners level | 11.0% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.40 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.2% | 87.4% | 88.5% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| 2-6 goals | 77.5% | 78.6% | 79.2% | 0.99× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 75.5% | 78.6% | 78.2% | 1.01× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.1% | 72.4% | 75.3% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.4% | 63.5% | 64.9% | 0.98× | 1.58 |
| 1-3 goals | 58.3% | 59.2% | 59.9% | 0.99× | 1.69 |
| 3-6 goals | 55.8% | 59.2% | 55.8% | 1.06× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 50.3% | 53.1% | 51.8% | 1.03× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 44.2% | 43.6% | 46.6% | 0.94× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 39.6% | 39.2% | 41.5% | 0.94× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 35.9% | 39.2% | 36.8% | 1.06× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 33.4% | 35.4% | 32.7% | 1.08× | 2.83 |
| 4-5 goals | 27.9% | 30.2% | 28.7% | 1.05× | 3.31 |
| 5-6 goals | 16.1% | 18.6% | 14.4% | 1.29× | 5.38 |
| 7+ goals | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.90× | 39.40 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United never behind | 45.0% | 48.4% | 37.8% | 1.28× | 2.07 |
| Everton never behind | 33.0% | 35.4% | 48.7% | 0.73× | 2.82 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.8% | 49.0% | 1.04× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.2% | 51.0% | 0.97× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.8% | 57.8% | 53.3% | 1.08× | 1.73 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.2% | 42.2% | 46.7% | 0.90× | 2.37 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.9% | 52.0% | 51.8% | 1.00× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.1% | 48.0% | 48.2% | 1.00× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95.4% | 95.5% | 95.2% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 90.8% | 92.3% | 93.2% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | 82.4% | 82.0% | 1.00× | 1.21 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 80.1% | 82.3% | 82.9% | 0.99× | 1.21 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62.8% | 61.8% | 64.6% | 0.96× | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 58.8% | 58.5% | 1.01× | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 41.2% | 41.5% | 0.99× | 2.43 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 38.2% | 35.4% | 1.08× | 2.62 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19.9% | 17.7% | 17.1% | 1.03× | 5.67 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.7% | 17.6% | 18.1% | 0.98× | 5.67 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 1.14× | 12.94 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 0.94× | 22.18 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 96.0% | 97.2% | 97.1% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 89.7% | 86.7% | 92.5% | 0.94× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 76.1% | 75.9% | 76.4% | 0.99× | 1.32 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 76.0% | 75.9% | 79.1% | 0.96× | 1.32 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 52.1% | 51.8% | 53.9% | 0.96× | 1.93 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 47.9% | 48.2% | 46.1% | 1.05× | 2.07 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 24.0% | 24.1% | 20.9% | 1.15× | 4.15 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 23.9% | 24.1% | 23.6% | 1.02× | 4.15 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 10.3% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 1.76× | 7.55 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.94× | 36.33 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 90.5% | 92.7% | 87.3% | 1.06× | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 70.7% | 71.0% | 64.1% | 1.11× | 1.41 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 66.0% | 69.0% | 72.5% | 0.95× | 1.45 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 34.0% | 31.0% | 27.5% | 1.13× | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 29.3% | 29.0% | 35.9% | 0.81× | 3.45 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 9.5% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 0.58× | 13.71 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 86.6% | 85.4% | 84.8% | 1.01× | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 67.5% | 67.1% | 75.9% | 0.88× | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 59.6% | 55.0% | 54.2% | 1.01× | 1.82 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 40.4% | 45.0% | 45.8% | 0.98× | 2.22 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 32.5% | 32.9% | 24.1% | 1.36× | 3.04 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 13.4% | 14.6% | 15.2% | 0.96× | 6.83 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton not to score in both halves | 76.9% | 78.4% | 68.7% | 1.14× | 1.28 |
| Manchester United not to score in both halves | 70.5% | 74.2% | 76.7% | 0.97× | 1.35 |
| Manchester United to score in both halves | 29.5% | 25.8% | 23.3% | 1.11× | 3.88 |
| Everton to score in both halves | 23.1% | 21.6% | 31.3% | 0.69× | 4.62 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 61.2% | 60.2% | 58.2% | 1.03× | 1.66 |
| Only Manchester United scores | 20.6% | 22.3% | 16.9% | 1.33× | 4.48 |
| Only Everton scores | 13.6% | 10.9% | 20.4% | 0.54× | 9.13 |
| Neither team scores | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 0.96× | 21.69 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.4% | 22.6% | 23.2% | 0.98× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 21.8% | 22.6% | 23.5% | 0.96× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.3% | 17.5% | 18.4% | 0.95× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 14.1% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 0.90× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 10.6% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 1.16× | 8.29 |
| 6 or more goals | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 1.13× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 0.92× | 22.60 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 59.6% | 53.5% | 54.2% | 0.99× | 1.87 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 27.0% | 29.6% | 30.6% | 0.97× | 3.38 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 13.4% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 0.95× | 6.89 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton not to win both halves | 92.9% | 94.0% | 86.5% | 1.09× | 1.06 |
| Manchester United not to win both halves | 87.6% | 88.1% | 91.2% | 0.97× | 1.14 |
| Manchester United to win both halves | 12.4% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 1.35× | 8.38 |
| Everton to win both halves | 7.1% | 6.0% | 13.5% | 0.45× | 16.59 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win either half | 59.1% | 59.5% | 48.7% | 1.22× | 1.68 |
| Everton to win neither half | 53.6% | 54.8% | 40.9% | 1.34× | 1.83 |
| Everton to win either half | 46.4% | 45.2% | 59.1% | 0.76× | 2.21 |
| Manchester United to win neither half | 40.9% | 40.5% | 51.3% | 0.79× | 2.47 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton not to win to nil | 86.4% | 88.2% | 79.6% | 1.11× | 1.13 |
| Manchester United not to win to nil | 79.4% | 78.0% | 83.1% | 0.94× | 1.28 |
| Manchester United to win to nil | 20.6% | 22.0% | 16.9% | 1.30× | 4.55 |
| Everton to win to nil | 13.6% | 11.8% | 20.4% | 0.58× | 8.47 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.1% | 24.6% | 0.98× | 4.14 |
| Manchester United by 1 | 21.4% | 24.1% | 16.6% | 1.45× | 4.14 |
| Everton by 1 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 19.2% | 0.88× | 5.90 |
| Manchester United by 2 | 13.7% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.27× | 8.46 |
| Manchester United by 3+ | 10.2% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 1.79× | 8.47 |
| Everton by 2 | 8.9% | 7.2% | 13.3% | 0.54× | 13.80 |
| Everton by 3+ | 4.9% | 2.7% | 10.8% | 0.25× | 36.91 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 1.06 xGManchester United 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 8' |
 Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 17' |
Manchester United |
Youri Tielemans | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 18' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 19' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 20' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 39' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 41' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 42' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Merlin Röhl |
| 46' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 48' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Everton |
Harrison Armstrong | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 56' |
Everton |
Brennan Johnson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 58' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrique George |
| 58' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrique George |
| 64' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Manchester United |
Youri Tielemans | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 65' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 66' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 69' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 72' |
Everton |
Harrison Armstrong | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Hayden Hackney |
| 82' |
Everton |
Tyrique George | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hayden Hackney |
| 85' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Luke Shaw |
| 89' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 93' |
Everton |
Hayden Hackney | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrique George |
| 95' |
Everton |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thierno Barry FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.58 |
| Harrison Armstrong DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Tyrique George AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.66 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| James Garner DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
| Merlin Röhl DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| Brennan Johnson AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Jack Grealish Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Hayden Hackney Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles Sub | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.55 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Benjamin Sesko Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Patrick Dorgu Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrey Santos Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noussair Mazraoui Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |