Everton v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
3 – 7
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.53 – -1.29
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
50.5%
Draw
24.8%
Nottingham Forest win
24.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.06 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 0.47 xGNottingham Forest 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 18' |
 Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 27' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danilo |
| 28' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Reyna |
| 53' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 77' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 81' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Dwight McNeil |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 1.07 |
| Ola Aina DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Neco Williams DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nicolás Domínguez DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Danilo DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Giovanni Reyna AMR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Divock Origi Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight McNeil ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Idrissa Gueye MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Ashley Young DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Jack Harrison MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| André Gomes MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| James Garner Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Beto Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Youssef Chermiti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |