Everton v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.75 – 0.55
Goals − xG
+0.44 – +0.64
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
28.2%
Draw
22.4%
Tottenham Hotspur win
49.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.38–1.88 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 2.56 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Everton |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 10' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Idrissa Gueye |
| 21' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Djed Spence | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 25' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
| 25' |
Everton |
Orel Mangala | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 26' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 29' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Idrissa Gueye |
| 32' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Lucas Bergvall | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 50' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.29 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
| 51' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 51' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Archie Gray | 0.00 | From Corner | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 52' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
| 60' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
| 60' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 70' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 72' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 76' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mikey Moore | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.55 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Mikey Moore |
| 93' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.54 | 0.12 | 1.41 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.11 | 0.59 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Orel Mangala DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.52 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| Jesper Lindstrom AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.87 | 1.47 |
| Ashley Young Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Keane Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Patterson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Son Heung-Min FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| James Maddison AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Dejan Kulusevski AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.03 | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| Djed Spence DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Lucas Bergvall MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Pedro Porro DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Archie Gray DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Davies DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Pape Sarr MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Radu Dragusin DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Richarlison Sub | 34 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mikey Moore Sub | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.55 | 0.07 |