Excelsior v AZ Alkmaar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Excelsior

20:00 UTC

AZ Alkmaar

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,353h before kick-off

Excelsior win

26.5%

model 27.2%

Draw

26.5%

model 25.3%

AZ Alkmaar win

47.1%

model 47.6%

262647

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.6%
1-2 9.4%
0-2 7.1%
2-1 6.9%
0-1 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.8%	Under 2.5	39.2%
BTTS yes	62.7%	BTTS no	37.3%
Excelsior 1+	73.6%	Excelsior 2+	38.4%
AZ Alkmaar 1+	83.6%	AZ Alkmaar 2+	54.0%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.81. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

75/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

AZ Alkmaar or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 56%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 80%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 264 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger rating, 1662 Elo against 1567.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AZ Alkmaar have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for Excelsior and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.33 for Excelsior and 1.81 for AZ Alkmaar.

Why Excelsior

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why AZ Alkmaar can win

AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger rating, 1662 Elo against 1567. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Excelsior, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for AZ Alkmaar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Excelsior: 43% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. AZ Alkmaar: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 8.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

AZ Alkmaar are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 75/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	272548	1.33–1.81	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	312841	1.30–1.52	1-1 13%	53%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win	41.1%	42.9%	30.1%	1.42×	2.33
Excelsior to win	31.2%	30.4%	44.4%	0.68×	3.29
Draw	27.7%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar & both teams score	21.1%	21.8%	17.2%	1.27×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.3%	21.8%	22.2%	0.98×	4.59
AZ Alkmaar & not both score	20.1%	21.8%	13.1%	1.67×	4.59
Excelsior & both teams score	16.5%	18.0%	21.2%	0.85×	5.57
Excelsior & not both score	14.7%	13.3%	23.4%	0.57×	7.53
Draw & not both score	7.3%	8.3%	3.5%	2.38×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar & over 1.5	33.3%	30.8%	26.2%	1.17×	3.25
AZ Alkmaar & under 3.5	27.2%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
AZ Alkmaar & over 2.5	26.4%	26.1%	20.4%	1.28×	3.84
Excelsior & over 1.5	24.7%	21.6%	36.2%	0.60×	4.63
Excelsior & under 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	27.5%	0.78×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.3%	21.6%	22.2%	0.97×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.4%	21.6%	15.1%	1.43×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.4%	21.6%	15.1%	1.43×	4.63
Excelsior & over 2.5	19.7%	18.0%	28.9%	0.62×	5.56
AZ Alkmaar & under 2.5	14.7%	12.8%	9.9%	1.30×	7.79
AZ Alkmaar & over 3.5	14.0%	12.8%	10.4%	1.24×	7.79
Excelsior & under 2.5	11.5%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
Excelsior & over 3.5	9.8%	7.9%	17.0%	0.46×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	3.5%	2.26×	12.63
AZ Alkmaar & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	4.1%	1.93×	12.63
Excelsior & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	8.4%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (1UP)	58.3%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Excelsior (1UP)	49.7%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2UP)	41.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Excelsior (2UP)	31.2%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win 2nd half	37.1%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
2nd half drawn	35.4%	36.2%	—	—	2.77
Excelsior to win 2nd half	27.5%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.9%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.7%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.3%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.1%	20.9%	—	—	4.79

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.1%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Excelsior over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Excelsior under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Excelsior over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.9%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (+2.5)	95.2%	96.3%	86.8%	1.11×	1.04
AZ Alkmaar (+1.5)	85.9%	88.5%	74.7%	1.18×	1.13
AZ Alkmaar (+0.5)	68.8%	68.7%	55.6%	1.24×	1.46
Excelsior (+0.5)	58.9%	57.0%	69.9%	0.82×	1.75
AZ Alkmaar (-0.5)	41.1%	43.0%	30.1%	1.43×	2.33
Excelsior (-0.5)	31.2%	31.3%	44.4%	0.70×	3.19
Excelsior (-1.5)	14.1%	11.5%	25.3%	0.46×	8.67
Excelsior (-2.5)	4.8%	3.7%	13.2%	0.28×	27.01

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to concede	72.6%	76.7%	83.6%	0.92×	1.30
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	27.4%	23.3%	16.4%	1.42×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet in 1st half	57.3%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
AZ Alkmaar to concede in 1st half	42.7%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to concede in 2nd half	52.2%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet in 2nd half	47.8%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 corners	83.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
AZ Alkmaar under 6.5 corners	70.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 corners	70.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
AZ Alkmaar under 5.5 corners	58.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners	55.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
AZ Alkmaar under 4.5 corners	44.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
AZ Alkmaar over 5.5 corners	41.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 corners	29.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
AZ Alkmaar over 6.5 corners	29.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 corners	16.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 goals	80.5%	81.5%	84.9%	0.96×	1.23
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 goals	78.0%	76.3%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 goals	55.3%	59.4%	58.1%	1.02×	1.68
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 goals	44.7%	40.6%	41.9%	0.97×	2.46
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 goals	22.0%	23.7%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals	19.5%	18.5%	15.1%	1.23×	5.39
AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	5.6%	1.36×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 in 1st half	87.6%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 in 1st half	54.6%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 in 1st half	45.4%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 in 1st half	12.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.45

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar scores more in 2nd half	40.9%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
AZ Alkmaar scores equally in both	35.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
AZ Alkmaar scores more in 1st half	23.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (away no bet)	53.0%	51.7%	63.5%	0.81×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	47.0%	48.3%	36.5%	1.32×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar even goals	52.4%	52.6%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
AZ Alkmaar odd goals	47.6%	47.4%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.1%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.9%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.2%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.8%	31.7%	—	—	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.1%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
AZ Alkmaar to score 2+ in a row	35.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Excelsior to score 2+ in a row	28.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
AZ Alkmaar to score 3+ in a row	12.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Excelsior to score 3+ in a row	8.2%	5.6%	—	—	18.01

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar corners (+3.5)	86.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AZ Alkmaar corners (+2.5)	79.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Excelsior corners (+3.5)	78.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
AZ Alkmaar corners (+1.5)	71.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Excelsior corners (+2.5)	70.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Excelsior corners (+1.5)	60.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
AZ Alkmaar corners (-1.5)	39.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
AZ Alkmaar corners (-2.5)	29.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Excelsior corners (-1.5)	28.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
AZ Alkmaar corners (-3.5)	21.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Excelsior corners (-2.5)	20.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Excelsior corners (-3.5)	13.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	31.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	61.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	40.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	39.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	31.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	23.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.1%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.71
1-2	8.9%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.51
0-0	7.3%	7.4%	3.5%	2.11×	13.51
0-1	7.8%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.51
0-2	6.9%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
1-0	6.5%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
2-0	5.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-3	3.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31
1-3	4.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.29
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.31
3-0	2.2%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.32
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2nd half DNB)	57.5%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
Excelsior (2nd half DNB)	42.5%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar leading at HT (DNB)	52.8%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Excelsior leading at HT (DNB)	47.2%	43.6%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or AZ Alkmaar (12)	72.3%	72.1%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
AZ Alkmaar or draw (X2)	68.8%	69.6%	55.6%	1.25×	1.44
Excelsior or draw (1X)	58.9%	57.1%	69.9%	0.82×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw at HT	73.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Excelsior or draw at HT	70.0%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
Excelsior or AZ Alkmaar at HT	56.8%	57.6%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw (1UP)	68.8%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Excelsior or draw (1UP)	58.9%	63.1%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw in 2nd half	72.5%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Excelsior or AZ Alkmaar in 2nd half	64.6%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Excelsior or draw in 2nd half	62.9%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.9%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.1%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (DNB)	56.9%	58.1%	40.4%	1.44×	1.72
Excelsior (DNB)	43.1%	41.9%	59.6%	0.70×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score first	50.0%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Excelsior to score first	42.7%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	7.3%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.0%	55.0%	60.3%	0.91×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.1%	45.0%	39.7%	1.13×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.8%	41.6%	48.7%	0.85×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	33.6%	34.5%	28.8%	1.20×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	13.1%	12.4%	11.7%	1.06×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	11.1%	0.75×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.4%	82.6%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.6%	17.4%	19.6%	0.89×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.8%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	25.6%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	13.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.26
Both score in both halves	6.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.73

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.6%	17.0%	—	—	5.90

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
A half without a goal	43.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.3%	47.2%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.5%	26.6%	33.8%	0.79×	3.76
0-1 goals	21.6%	22.9%	15.7%	1.46×	4.37
7+ goals	2.5%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.28

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 1	33.3%	33.8%	31.5%	1.07×	2.96
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 2	25.2%	27.4%	26.9%	1.02×	3.65
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 0	22.0%	22.3%	26.8%	0.83×	4.49
AZ Alkmaar to score 3+	19.5%	19.6%	15.1%	1.30×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.5%	33.2%	1.07×	2.81
Excelsior to score exactly 0	27.4%	26.5%	16.4%	1.62×	3.77
Excelsior to score exactly 2	23.0%	23.3%	26.9%	0.87×	4.29
Excelsior to score 3+	14.2%	14.3%	23.7%	0.60×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.2%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
AZ Alkmaar leading at HT	30.0%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Excelsior leading at HT	26.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar -1: 1	58.9%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
AZ Alkmaar -1: 2	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
AZ Alkmaar -1: X	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:1)	68.8%	65.3%	55.6%	1.17×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.1%	17.8%	19.3%	0.92×	5.61
Excelsior (0:1)	14.1%	13.7%	25.3%	0.54×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:2)	85.9%	87.1%	74.7%	1.17×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.3%	7.7%	12.2%	0.63×	13.03
Excelsior (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	13.2%	0.28×	26.60

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:3)	95.2%	96.6%	86.8%	1.11×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.5%	2.4%	7.8%	0.31×	42.07
Excelsior (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	42.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.6%	0.47×	82.06
Excelsior (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	82.14

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (1:0)	58.9%	58.4%	69.9%	0.84×	1.71
AZ Alkmaar (1:0)	20.9%	21.7%	15.5%	1.40×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	20.2%	21.7%	14.8%	1.47×	4.62

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (2:0)	79.1%	80.5%	84.5%	0.95×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.7%	10.3%	8.8%	1.16×	9.72
AZ Alkmaar (2:0)	8.2%	6.4%	6.8%	0.93×	15.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.6%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	26.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede	78.0%	76.1%	73.2%	1.04×	1.32
Excelsior clean sheet	22.0%	23.9%	26.8%	0.89×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior clean sheet in 1st half	54.6%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Excelsior to concede in 1st half	45.4%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede in 2nd half	59.7%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Excelsior clean sheet in 2nd half	40.3%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior over 2.5 corners	78.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Excelsior under 6.5 corners	78.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Excelsior under 5.5 corners	66.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Excelsior over 3.5 corners	63.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Excelsior under 4.5 corners	52.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Excelsior over 4.5 corners	47.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Excelsior under 3.5 corners	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Excelsior over 5.5 corners	33.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Excelsior over 6.5 corners	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Excelsior under 2.5 corners	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 3.5 goals	95.7%	96.4%	89.2%	1.08×	1.04
Excelsior under 2.5 goals	85.8%	87.2%	76.3%	1.14×	1.15
Excelsior over 0.5 goals	72.6%	74.2%	83.6%	0.89×	1.35
Excelsior under 1.5 goals	62.9%	63.6%	49.5%	1.29×	1.57
Excelsior over 1.5 goals	37.1%	36.4%	50.5%	0.72×	2.75
Excelsior under 0.5 goals	27.4%	25.8%	16.4%	1.57×	3.88
Excelsior over 2.5 goals	14.2%	12.8%	23.7%	0.54×	7.84
Excelsior over 3.5 goals	4.3%	3.6%	10.8%	0.34×	27.48

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 1st half	89.2%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Excelsior under 0.5 in 1st half	57.3%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Excelsior over 0.5 in 1st half	42.7%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Excelsior over 1.5 in 1st half	10.8%	9.8%	—	—	10.24

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior scores equally in both	39.9%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Excelsior scores more in 2nd half	35.7%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Excelsior scores more in 1st half	24.5%	21.2%	—	—	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (home no bet)	59.8%	56.5%	54.1%	1.04×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.2%	43.5%	45.9%	0.95×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior even goals	53.8%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
Excelsior odd goals	46.2%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
HT 0-1	18.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-0	17.2%	18.5%	—	—	5.41
HT 1-1	10.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-2	5.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-0	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.89
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.4%	—	—	41.93
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.00
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.15

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	22.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Excelsior at HT / Excelsior at FT	18.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	15.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Excelsior at FT	11.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Excelsior at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
AZ Alkmaar at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Excelsior at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
AZ Alkmaar at HT / Excelsior at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score last	50.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Excelsior to score last	42.7%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	7.3%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.7%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 1 at any time	58.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Excelsior to lead by 1 at any time	49.7%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.4%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 2 at any time	27.5%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Excelsior to lead by 2 at any time	20.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 3 at any time	10.4%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Excelsior to lead by 3 at any time	6.5%	6.7%	—	—	15.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar most corners	50.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Excelsior most corners	38.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.3%	78.7%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.9%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.8%	72.3%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	63.0%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.7%	63.3%	58.9%	1.08×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.8%	53.2%	55.7%	0.95×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.3%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.7%	48.5%	50.7%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.4%	39.2%	37.0%	1.06×	2.55
3-4 goals	37.9%	39.2%	39.0%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.5%	30.2%	33.8%	0.89×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.4%	24.5%	28.8%	0.85×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.9%	14.8%	16.9%	0.88×	6.75
7+ goals	2.5%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar never behind	42.9%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Excelsior never behind	34.4%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.2%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.8%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.6%	82.3%	79.1%	1.04×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.4%	77.3%	84.3%	0.92×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.0%	66.3%	62.3%	1.07×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.3%	52.5%	59.7%	0.88×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.7%	47.5%	40.3%	1.18×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.0%	33.7%	37.7%	0.89×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	21.6%	22.7%	15.7%	1.45×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.4%	17.7%	20.9%	0.85×	5.66
Under 0.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	3.5%	2.21×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.8%	92.4%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.8%	81.1%	74.9%	1.08×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.1%	72.4%	79.2%	0.91×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.1%	61.9%	51.7%	1.20×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.9%	38.1%	48.3%	0.79×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.9%	27.6%	20.8%	1.33×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.2%	18.9%	25.1%	0.75×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.2%	7.6%	10.3%	0.73×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.7%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.5%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.4%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.6%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.5%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.3%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.1%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.9%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.7%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to score in both halves	77.7%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
AZ Alkmaar not to score in both halves	72.9%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
AZ Alkmaar to score in both halves	27.1%	26.1%	—	—	3.84
Excelsior to score in both halves	22.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.66

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.0%	58.7%	60.3%	0.97×	1.70
Only AZ Alkmaar scores	20.1%	22.3%	13.1%	1.70×	4.49
Only Excelsior scores	14.7%	11.0%	23.4%	0.47×	9.06
Neither team scores	7.3%	7.1%	3.5%	2.04×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.1%	24.9%	24.8%	1.00×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.3%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	8.8%	7.6%	11.9%	0.64×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	7.3%	7.6%	3.5%	2.17×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.6%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	31.5%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	21.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	11.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.22

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.5%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	30.8%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	19.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to win both halves	92.4%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
AZ Alkmaar not to win both halves	88.7%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
AZ Alkmaar to win both halves	11.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Excelsior to win both halves	7.6%	5.9%	—	—	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win either half	55.8%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Excelsior to win neither half	53.3%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Excelsior to win either half	46.7%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
AZ Alkmaar to win neither half	44.2%	40.9%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to win to nil	85.3%	88.1%	76.6%	1.15×	1.14
AZ Alkmaar not to win to nil	79.9%	78.1%	86.9%	0.90×	1.28
AZ Alkmaar to win to nil	20.1%	21.9%	13.1%	1.67×	4.57
Excelsior to win to nil	14.7%	11.9%	23.4%	0.51×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.7%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
AZ Alkmaar by 1	20.2%	24.1%	14.8%	1.63×	4.15
Excelsior by 1	17.1%	17.0%	19.3%	0.88×	5.87
AZ Alkmaar by 2	12.7%	11.8%	8.8%	1.33×	8.51
Excelsior by 2	9.3%	7.2%	12.2%	0.59×	13.90
AZ Alkmaar by 3+	8.2%	7.2%	6.8%	1.05×	13.90
Excelsior by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	13.2%	0.21×	36.78