Excelsior v FC Utrecht — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Excelsior

10:15 UTC

FC Utrecht

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 122h before kick-off

Excelsior win

50.9%

model 50.2%

Draw

21.9%

model 24.8%

FC Utrecht win

27.2%

model 25.0%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.3%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 7.4%
1-0 6.7%
1-2 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.5%	Under 2.5	38.5%
BTTS yes	62.6%	BTTS no	37.4%
Excelsior 1+	84.8%	Excelsior 2+	56.2%
FC Utrecht 1+	72.5%	FC Utrecht 2+	37.0%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 80%

78.9% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2343 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 81%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 222 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Excelsior have an estimated 50.9% win probability, against 27.2% for FC Utrecht and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.89 for Excelsior and 1.29 for FC Utrecht.

Why Excelsior

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why FC Utrecht can win

Nothing in the data singles out FC Utrecht.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Excelsior, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Utrecht, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Excelsior: 51% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Utrecht: 41% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 21.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Excelsior are the model's most likely outcome at 50.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	502525	1.89–1.29	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	432632	1.74–1.48	1-1 11%	62%	65%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win	50.2%	51.7%	44.6%	1.16×	1.94
FC Utrecht to win	25.0%	27.5%	30.3%	0.91×	3.63
Draw	24.8%	22.2%	25.3%	0.88×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior & both teams score	28.0%	26.4%	21.3%	1.24×	3.79
Excelsior & not both score	22.2%	22.6%	23.4%	0.96×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	19.5%	17.8%	21.9%	0.81×	5.63
FC Utrecht & both teams score	15.2%	17.7%	17.3%	1.02×	5.64
FC Utrecht & not both score	9.8%	7.3%	13.2%	0.56×	13.62
Draw & not both score	5.3%	7.3%	3.5%	2.07×	13.72

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior & over 1.5	43.5%	44.0%	36.4%	1.21×	2.27
Excelsior & over 2.5	36.1%	37.5%	29.1%	1.29×	2.67
Excelsior & under 3.5	28.4%	25.5%	27.6%	0.93×	3.92
Excelsior & over 3.5	21.8%	21.5%	17.2%	1.25×	4.65
FC Utrecht & over 1.5	20.8%	21.5%	26.3%	0.82×	4.65
Draw & over 1.5	19.5%	17.6%	21.9%	0.80×	5.69
FC Utrecht & over 2.5	17.3%	17.6%	20.5%	0.86×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	16.7%	17.6%	15.0%	1.17×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	16.7%	17.6%	15.0%	1.17×	5.69
FC Utrecht & under 3.5	15.7%	17.6%	20.1%	0.88×	5.70
Excelsior & under 2.5	14.1%	12.7%	15.6%	0.81×	7.86
FC Utrecht & over 3.5	9.3%	7.5%	10.4%	0.72×	13.40
Draw & over 2.5	8.1%	7.5%	10.4%	0.72×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	8.1%	7.5%	10.4%	0.72×	13.41
FC Utrecht & under 2.5	7.7%	7.5%	10.0%	0.75×	13.41
Excelsior & under 1.5	6.7%	7.5%	8.3%	0.90×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	5.3%	7.5%	3.5%	2.12×	13.42
FC Utrecht & under 1.5	4.2%	4.6%	4.1%	1.10×	21.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (1UP)	66.8%	72.1%	—	—	1.39
FC Utrecht (1UP)	45.5%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (2UP)	50.2%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
FC Utrecht (2UP)	25.0%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win 2nd half	41.8%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
2nd half drawn	32.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
FC Utrecht to win 2nd half	25.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.65

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (+2.5)	86.5%	89.0%	86.7%	1.03×	1.12
Excelsior (+0.5)	75.0%	73.2%	69.7%	1.05×	1.37
FC Utrecht (+1.5)	70.9%	73.0%	74.6%	0.98×	1.37
Excelsior (-0.5)	50.2%	51.5%	44.6%	1.16×	1.94
FC Utrecht (+0.5)	49.8%	48.5%	55.4%	0.87×	2.06
Excelsior (-1.5)	29.1%	27.0%	25.4%	1.06×	3.71
FC Utrecht (-0.5)	25.0%	26.8%	30.3%	0.89×	3.73
Excelsior (-2.5)	13.5%	11.0%	13.3%	0.83×	9.05

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht to concede	84.8%	85.0%	83.5%	1.02×	1.18
FC Utrecht clean sheet	15.2%	15.0%	16.5%	0.91×	6.66

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht to concede in 1st half	55.5%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
FC Utrecht clean sheet in 1st half	44.5%	39.8%	—	—	2.51

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht under 6.5 corners	83.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
FC Utrecht under 5.5 corners	73.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Utrecht over 2.5 corners	73.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Utrecht under 4.5 corners	60.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
FC Utrecht over 3.5 corners	56.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
FC Utrecht under 3.5 corners	43.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
FC Utrecht over 4.5 corners	39.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Utrecht under 2.5 corners	26.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
FC Utrecht over 5.5 corners	26.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
FC Utrecht over 6.5 corners	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht under 3.5 goals	95.8%	97.3%	94.3%	1.03×	1.03
FC Utrecht under 2.5 goals	85.9%	88.9%	85.0%	1.05×	1.13
FC Utrecht over 0.5 goals	72.5%	71.9%	73.2%	0.98×	1.39
FC Utrecht under 1.5 goals	63.0%	64.2%	58.2%	1.10×	1.56
FC Utrecht over 1.5 goals	37.0%	35.8%	41.8%	0.86×	2.79
FC Utrecht under 0.5 goals	27.5%	28.1%	26.8%	1.05×	3.56
FC Utrecht over 2.5 goals	14.1%	11.1%	15.0%	0.74×	8.99
FC Utrecht over 3.5 goals	4.2%	2.7%	5.7%	0.48×	37.03

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht under 1.5 in 1st half	90.5%	93.2%	—	—	1.07
FC Utrecht under 0.5 in 1st half	59.7%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
FC Utrecht over 0.5 in 1st half	40.3%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
FC Utrecht over 1.5 in 1st half	9.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.65

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (away no bet)	66.9%	71.6%	63.8%	1.12×	1.40
Draw (away no bet)	33.1%	28.4%	36.2%	0.79×	3.52

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht even goals	53.8%	52.4%	57.4%	0.91×	1.91
FC Utrecht odd goals	46.2%	47.6%	42.6%	1.12×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.9%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.1%	28.6%	—	—	3.49

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.1%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Excelsior to score 2+ in a row	46.6%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
FC Utrecht to score 2+ in a row	26.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Excelsior to score 3+ in a row	19.3%	17.9%	—	—	5.60
FC Utrecht to score 3+ in a row	7.2%	7.3%	—	—	13.64

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior corners (+3.5)	90.2%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Excelsior corners (+2.5)	84.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Excelsior corners (+1.5)	77.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
FC Utrecht corners (+3.5)	73.7%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
FC Utrecht corners (+2.5)	64.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
FC Utrecht corners (+1.5)	53.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Excelsior corners (-1.5)	46.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Excelsior corners (-2.5)	35.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Excelsior corners (-3.5)	26.3%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
FC Utrecht corners (-1.5)	22.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
FC Utrecht corners (-2.5)	15.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
FC Utrecht corners (-3.5)	9.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.56

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
9-11 corners	29.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	28.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	37.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	28.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.6%	11.6%	0.99×	8.64
2-1	9.6%	7.3%	8.0%	0.91×	13.74
2-0	7.4%	7.3%	7.5%	0.97×	13.75
1-0	6.7%	7.3%	8.3%	0.88×	13.75
1-2	6.6%	7.3%	8.1%	0.90×	13.75
2-2	6.2%	7.3%	8.6%	0.85×	13.75
3-1	6.0%	7.3%	3.7%	1.98×	13.75
0-0	5.3%	7.3%	3.5%	2.06×	13.75
Any other score	5.3%	7.3%	6.6%	1.10×	13.76
0-1	4.2%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	55.40
3-0	4.7%	1.8%	4.3%	0.42×	55.39
3-2	3.9%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.41
0-2	3.5%	1.8%	6.0%	0.30×	55.42
1-3	2.8%	1.8%	2.6%	0.69×	55.44
2-3	2.7%	1.8%	2.5%	0.74×	55.44
4-1	2.8%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.44
0-3	1.5%	1.8%	2.3%	0.78×	55.47
3-3	1.7%	1.8%	2.0%	0.91×	55.47
4-0	2.2%	1.8%	1.8%	0.98×	55.45
4-2	1.8%	1.8%	1.2%	1.47×	55.46
0-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.9%	1.96×	55.50
1-4	0.9%	1.8%	2.1%	0.84×	55.49
2-4	0.9%	1.8%	0.5%	3.92×	55.49
3-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.6%	2.94×	55.50
4-3	0.8%	1.8%	0.6%	2.94×	55.49
4-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.2%	11.77×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior leading at HT (DNB)	64.8%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
FC Utrecht leading at HT (DNB)	35.2%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or FC Utrecht (12)	75.2%	77.8%	74.7%	1.04×	1.29
Excelsior or draw (1X)	75.0%	72.5%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
FC Utrecht or draw (X2)	49.8%	48.4%	55.4%	0.87×	2.07

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw at HT	78.6%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Excelsior or FC Utrecht at HT	60.8%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
FC Utrecht or draw at HT	60.6%	63.1%	—	—	1.58

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw (1UP)	75.0%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
FC Utrecht or draw (1UP)	49.8%	55.3%	—	—	1.81

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw in 2nd half	74.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Excelsior or FC Utrecht in 2nd half	67.4%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
FC Utrecht or draw in 2nd half	58.2%	60.5%	—	—	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.7%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	42.3%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (DNB)	66.7%	68.3%	59.5%	1.15×	1.47
FC Utrecht (DNB)	33.3%	31.7%	40.5%	0.78×	3.15

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score first	56.2%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
FC Utrecht to score first	38.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goal scored	5.3%	6.2%	—	—	16.12

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.7%	57.5%	60.2%	0.96×	1.74
Not both teams to score	37.3%	42.5%	39.8%	1.07×	2.35

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.3%	46.9%	48.7%	0.96×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	27.2%	31.4%	28.8%	1.09×	3.18
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	11.7%	11.6%	1.01×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	10.2%	11.7%	11.2%	1.05×	8.55

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.2%	83.9%	80.6%	1.04×	1.19
Both teams to score 2+	20.8%	16.2%	19.4%	0.83×	6.19

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.1%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.9%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	27.9%	24.8%	—	—	4.04
Both score 1st half only	14.6%	11.6%	—	—	8.62
Both score in both halves	8.0%	6.5%	—	—	15.36

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	22.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.5%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
A half without a goal	37.5%	36.9%	—	—	2.71

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.5%	43.3%	46.9%	0.92×	2.31
4-6 goals	34.9%	31.7%	33.7%	0.94×	3.16
0-1 goals	16.3%	20.7%	15.6%	1.32×	4.84
7+ goals	4.3%	2.0%	4.1%	0.48×	50.57

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht to score exactly 1	35.5%	34.5%	31.5%	1.09×	2.90
FC Utrecht to score exactly 0	27.5%	27.1%	26.8%	1.01×	3.69
FC Utrecht to score exactly 2	22.9%	24.0%	27.0%	0.89×	4.17
FC Utrecht to score 3+	14.1%	13.5%	15.0%	0.90×	7.43

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score 3+	29.2%	27.1%	23.7%	1.14×	3.69
Excelsior to score exactly 1	28.6%	27.1%	33.1%	0.82×	3.69
Excelsior to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.1%	27.0%	1.00×	3.70
Excelsior to score exactly 0	15.2%	18.4%	16.5%	1.12×	5.42

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior leading at HT	39.4%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Draw at HT	39.3%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
FC Utrecht leading at HT	21.4%	21.2%	—	—	4.71

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior -1: 2	49.8%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Excelsior -1: 1	29.1%	27.1%	—	—	3.68
Excelsior -1: X	21.1%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (0:1)	49.8%	48.4%	55.4%	0.87×	2.07
Excelsior (0:1)	29.1%	26.4%	25.4%	1.04×	3.79
Draw (0:1)	21.1%	24.4%	19.3%	1.26×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (0:2)	70.9%	73.0%	74.6%	0.98×	1.37
Draw (0:2)	15.6%	16.3%	12.3%	1.33×	6.15
Excelsior (0:2)	13.5%	11.8%	13.3%	0.88×	8.50

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (0:3)	86.5%	88.2%	86.7%	1.02×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	8.3%	6.9%	7.8%	0.89×	14.40
Excelsior (0:3)	5.2%	6.9%	5.7%	1.21×	14.58

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (0:4)	94.8%	94.3%	94.3%	1.00×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.5%	1.3%	2.6%	0.48×	79.55
Excelsior (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	3.2%	0.39×	80.47

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (1:0)	75.0%	74.1%	69.7%	1.06×	1.35
Draw (1:0)	14.0%	11.8%	14.9%	0.80×	8.46
FC Utrecht (1:0)	11.0%	11.7%	15.6%	0.75×	8.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (2:0)	89.0%	89.4%	84.4%	1.06×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	7.3%	6.6%	8.9%	0.74×	15.15
FC Utrecht (2:0)	3.7%	2.7%	6.9%	0.39×	36.91

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.8%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	24.4%	23.2%	—	—	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede	72.5%	71.2%	73.2%	0.97×	1.41
Excelsior clean sheet	27.5%	28.8%	26.8%	1.08×	3.47

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior clean sheet in 1st half	59.7%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Excelsior to concede in 1st half	40.3%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior over 2.5 corners	84.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Excelsior over 3.5 corners	72.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Excelsior under 6.5 corners	68.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Excelsior over 4.5 corners	58.0%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Excelsior under 5.5 corners	56.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Excelsior over 5.5 corners	43.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Excelsior under 4.5 corners	42.0%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Excelsior over 6.5 corners	31.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Excelsior under 3.5 corners	27.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Excelsior under 2.5 corners	15.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 3.5 goals	87.7%	87.8%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
Excelsior over 0.5 goals	84.8%	82.5%	83.5%	0.99×	1.21
Excelsior under 2.5 goals	70.8%	72.7%	76.3%	0.95×	1.38
Excelsior over 1.5 goals	56.2%	55.6%	50.5%	1.10×	1.80
Excelsior under 1.5 goals	43.8%	44.4%	49.5%	0.90×	2.26
Excelsior over 2.5 goals	29.2%	27.3%	23.7%	1.15×	3.66
Excelsior under 0.5 goals	15.2%	17.5%	16.5%	1.06×	5.71
Excelsior over 3.5 goals	12.3%	12.2%	10.9%	1.12×	8.20

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 1st half	80.5%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Excelsior over 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Excelsior under 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
Excelsior over 1.5 in 1st half	19.5%	19.7%	—	—	5.08

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	49.8%	51.5%	45.5%	1.13×	1.94
FC Utrecht (home no bet)	50.2%	48.5%	54.5%	0.89×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior even goals	51.2%	50.2%	51.1%	0.98×	1.99
Excelsior odd goals	48.8%	49.8%	48.9%	1.02×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
HT 1-0	21.3%	22.6%	—	—	4.42
HT 0-1	13.5%	11.2%	—	—	8.92
HT 1-1	11.3%	11.2%	—	—	8.95
HT 2-0	8.7%	7.7%	—	—	12.98
Any other HT score	6.4%	7.7%	—	—	13.02
HT 2-1	4.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.74
HT 0-2	3.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.80
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.84
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	39.93

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior at HT / Excelsior at FT	31.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Draw at HT / Excelsior at FT	15.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
FC Utrecht at HT / FC Utrecht at FT	13.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Draw at HT / FC Utrecht at FT	9.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.17
Excelsior at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.26
FC Utrecht at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.30
FC Utrecht at HT / Excelsior at FT	3.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.38
Excelsior at HT / FC Utrecht at FT	2.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.42

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score last	56.3%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
FC Utrecht to score last	38.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
No goal scored	5.3%	6.2%	—	—	16.12

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.7%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Excelsior to lead by 1 at any time	66.8%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.9%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
FC Utrecht to lead by 1 at any time	45.5%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Excelsior to lead by 2 at any time	36.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.0%	19.8%	—	—	5.06
FC Utrecht to lead by 2 at any time	17.3%	17.7%	—	—	5.66
Excelsior to lead by 3 at any time	16.6%	17.6%	—	—	5.67
FC Utrecht to lead by 3 at any time	5.3%	7.0%	—	—	14.27

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior most corners	57.3%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
FC Utrecht most corners	32.1%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.4%	81.6%	87.6%	0.93×	1.23
2-6 goals	79.4%	78.9%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	73.5%	73.6%	75.5%	0.98×	1.36
1-4 goals	73.2%	73.6%	75.8%	0.97×	1.36
2-4 goals	62.2%	62.3%	63.7%	0.98×	1.61
3-6 goals	57.2%	58.7%	55.7%	1.05×	1.70
1-3 goals	55.5%	58.7%	59.0%	1.00×	1.70
3-5 goals	51.2%	52.3%	50.8%	1.03×	1.91
2-3 goals	44.5%	43.6%	46.9%	0.93×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	43.6%	39.1%	1.12×	2.29
4-6 goals	34.9%	34.2%	33.7%	1.01×	2.93
1-2 goals	33.2%	34.1%	36.9%	0.92×	2.93
4-5 goals	29.0%	30.5%	28.8%	1.06×	3.28
5-6 goals	17.2%	18.1%	16.8%	1.07×	5.53
7+ goals	4.3%	2.1%	4.1%	0.50×	48.65

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior never behind	49.1%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
FC Utrecht never behind	27.9%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.1%	49.0%	1.02×	2.00
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.9%	51.0%	0.98×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.7%	93.0%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	89.7%	88.8%	91.0%	0.98×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	83.7%	81.0%	84.4%	0.96×	1.24
Under 4.5 goals	78.5%	78.3%	79.2%	0.99×	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	61.5%	61.5%	59.7%	1.03×	1.63
Under 3.5 goals	60.8%	61.5%	62.3%	0.99×	1.63
Over 3.5 goals	39.2%	38.5%	37.7%	1.02×	2.60
Under 2.5 goals	38.5%	38.5%	40.3%	0.96×	2.60
Over 4.5 goals	21.5%	21.7%	20.8%	1.04×	4.60
Under 1.5 goals	16.3%	19.0%	15.6%	1.22×	5.26
Over 5.5 goals	10.3%	11.2%	9.0%	1.24×	8.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.3%	7.0%	3.5%	2.00×	14.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.4%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.4%	88.1%	89.8%	0.98×	1.14
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.1%	76.6%	79.3%	0.97×	1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.9%	72.2%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.5%	53.0%	48.3%	1.10×	1.89
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.5%	47.0%	51.7%	0.91×	2.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.1%	27.8%	25.0%	1.11×	3.59
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.9%	23.4%	20.7%	1.13×	4.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.6%	11.9%	10.2%	1.16×	8.43
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.6%	2.8%	4.3%	0.64×	35.74

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.5%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.5%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.32

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.9%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.8%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.6%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.4%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.2%	23.7%	—	—	4.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.1%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht not to score in both halves	78.3%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Excelsior not to score in both halves	63.4%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Excelsior to score in both halves	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
FC Utrecht to score in both halves	21.7%	21.9%	—	—	4.57

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.7%	58.2%	60.2%	0.97×	1.72
Only Excelsior scores	22.2%	22.8%	23.4%	0.97×	4.38
Only FC Utrecht scores	9.8%	6.7%	13.2%	0.51×	14.94
Neither team scores	5.3%	6.6%	3.5%	1.88×	15.10

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	21.5%	22.2%	0.97×	4.64
Exactly 2 goals	22.2%	21.5%	24.8%	0.87×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	17.7%	18.6%	17.0%	1.09×	5.39
Exactly 5 goals	11.2%	12.4%	11.9%	1.03×	8.10
Exactly 1 goals	10.9%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.10
6 or more goals	10.3%	12.3%	9.0%	1.37×	8.10
Exactly 0 goals	5.3%	7.6%	3.5%	2.16×	13.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.6%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
1 goal in 2nd half	28.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
No goals in 2nd half	16.1%	18.3%	—	—	5.47

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht not to win both halves	94.4%	93.4%	—	—	1.07
Excelsior not to win both halves	83.3%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Excelsior to win both halves	16.7%	17.1%	—	—	5.85
FC Utrecht to win both halves	5.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.20

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win either half	64.4%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
FC Utrecht to win neither half	58.6%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
FC Utrecht to win either half	41.4%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
Excelsior to win neither half	35.6%	36.3%	—	—	2.76

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht not to win to nil	90.2%	92.2%	86.8%	1.06×	1.09
Excelsior not to win to nil	77.8%	77.2%	76.6%	1.01×	1.30
Excelsior to win to nil	22.2%	22.8%	23.4%	0.97×	4.38
FC Utrecht to win to nil	9.8%	7.8%	13.2%	0.59×	12.83

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.8%	23.8%	25.3%	0.94×	4.21
Excelsior by 1	21.1%	23.7%	19.3%	1.23×	4.22
Excelsior by 2	15.6%	17.0%	12.3%	1.38×	5.90
FC Utrecht by 1	14.0%	11.9%	14.9%	0.80×	8.42
Excelsior by 3+	13.5%	11.9%	13.3%	0.89×	8.43
FC Utrecht by 2	7.3%	7.1%	8.9%	0.80×	14.11
FC Utrecht by 3+	3.7%	2.8%	6.9%	0.41×	35.25