Excelsior v Telstar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Excelsior

20:00 UTC

Telstar

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 849h before kick-off

Excelsior win

51.0%

model 50.0%

Draw

26.7%

model 25.2%

Telstar win

22.3%

model 24.7%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 7.8%
1-0 7.3%
1-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.2%	Under 2.5	40.8%
BTTS yes	60.8%	BTTS no	39.2%
Excelsior 1+	84.0%	Excelsior 2+	54.6%
Telstar 1+	71.1%	Telstar 2+	35.2%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Excelsior or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 70%

77.2% fair odds 1.30

moderate signal · 1708 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Excelsior not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.4% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Excelsior carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1502.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Excelsior have an estimated 51.0% win probability, against 26.7% for the draw and 22.3% for Telstar. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.83 for Excelsior and 1.24 for Telstar.

Why Excelsior

Excelsior carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1502. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Telstar can win

Nothing in the data singles out Telstar.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Excelsior, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Telstar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Excelsior: 43% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Telstar: 44% possession, 7.2 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Excelsior are the model's most likely outcome at 51.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	502525	1.83–1.24	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	472627	1.72–1.28	1-1 12%	58%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win	46.5%	47.3%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11
Telstar to win	27.4%	27.9%	30.1%	0.93×	3.58
Draw	26.1%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior & both teams score	25.0%	21.8%	21.2%	1.03×	4.58
Excelsior & not both score	21.5%	21.8%	23.4%	0.93×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.9%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
Telstar & both teams score	15.7%	18.0%	17.2%	1.04×	5.57
Telstar & not both score	11.7%	13.3%	13.1%	1.01×	7.54
Draw & not both score	6.2%	8.3%	3.5%	2.38×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior & over 1.5	39.2%	34.9%	36.2%	0.96×	2.87
Excelsior & over 2.5	31.8%	30.7%	28.9%	1.06×	3.25
Excelsior & under 3.5	28.3%	26.1%	27.5%	0.95×	3.84
Telstar & over 1.5	22.3%	21.6%	26.2%	0.83×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.9%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
Excelsior & over 3.5	18.2%	18.0%	17.0%	1.06×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.3%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Telstar & over 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Telstar & under 3.5	18.0%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Excelsior & under 2.5	14.7%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
Telstar & under 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.63
Telstar & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	10.4%	0.77×	12.63
Excelsior & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	8.4%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.8%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.8%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	3.5%	2.26×	12.63
Telstar & under 1.5	5.2%	7.9%	4.1%	1.93×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (1UP)	63.4%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Telstar (1UP)	47.1%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (2UP)	46.5%	49.9%	—	—	2.00
Telstar (2UP)	27.4%	25.3%	—	—	3.96

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win 2nd half	38.8%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
2nd half drawn	34.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Telstar to win 2nd half	27.2%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Telstar over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.7%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Telstar under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.3%	47.3%	—	—	2.12
Telstar over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.3%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Excelsior over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.5%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Excelsior under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.5%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
Excelsior over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar (+2.5)	88.9%	88.5%	86.8%	1.02×	1.13
Telstar (+1.5)	74.4%	73.7%	74.7%	0.99×	1.36
Excelsior (+0.5)	72.6%	73.6%	69.9%	1.05×	1.36
Telstar (+0.5)	53.5%	52.4%	55.6%	0.94×	1.91
Excelsior (-0.5)	46.5%	47.6%	44.4%	1.07×	2.10
Telstar (-0.5)	27.4%	26.4%	30.1%	0.87×	3.80
Excelsior (-1.5)	25.6%	26.3%	25.3%	1.04×	3.80
Excelsior (-2.5)	11.1%	11.5%	13.2%	0.87×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar to concede	82.1%	81.5%	83.6%	0.98×	1.23
Telstar clean sheet	17.9%	18.5%	16.4%	1.12×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar to concede in 1st half	52.3%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Telstar clean sheet in 1st half	47.7%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar to concede in 2nd half	62.5%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Telstar clean sheet in 2nd half	37.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar under 6.5 corners	85.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Telstar under 5.5 corners	76.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Telstar over 2.5 corners	71.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Telstar under 4.5 corners	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Telstar over 3.5 corners	53.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Telstar under 3.5 corners	46.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Telstar over 4.5 corners	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Telstar under 2.5 corners	28.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Telstar over 5.5 corners	23.8%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Telstar over 6.5 corners	14.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar under 3.5 goals	95.9%	97.5%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Telstar under 2.5 goals	86.1%	87.8%	84.9%	1.03×	1.14
Telstar over 0.5 goals	72.3%	71.8%	73.2%	0.98×	1.39
Telstar under 1.5 goals	63.3%	63.2%	58.1%	1.09×	1.58
Telstar over 1.5 goals	36.7%	36.8%	41.9%	0.88×	2.72
Telstar under 0.5 goals	27.7%	28.2%	26.8%	1.05×	3.55
Telstar over 2.5 goals	13.9%	12.2%	15.1%	0.81×	8.19
Telstar over 3.5 goals	4.2%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.85

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar under 1.5 in 1st half	90.6%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Telstar under 0.5 in 1st half	59.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Telstar over 0.5 in 1st half	40.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.64
Telstar over 1.5 in 1st half	9.4%	6.3%	—	—	15.95

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar scores equally in both	39.8%	37.5%	—	—	2.66
Telstar scores more in 2nd half	38.0%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Telstar scores more in 1st half	22.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (away no bet)	64.1%	62.0%	63.5%	0.98×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.9%	38.0%	36.5%	1.04×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar even goals	53.8%	52.6%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
Telstar odd goals	46.2%	47.4%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.4%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.6%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.9%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.1%	31.5%	—	—	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.9%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Excelsior to score 2+ in a row	42.0%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Telstar to score 2+ in a row	26.9%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.3%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Excelsior to score 3+ in a row	16.2%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Telstar to score 3+ in a row	7.5%	5.5%	—	—	18.07

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior corners (+3.5)	93.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Excelsior corners (+2.5)	89.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Excelsior corners (+1.5)	83.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Telstar corners (+3.5)	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Excelsior corners (-1.5)	56.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Telstar corners (+2.5)	53.9%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Excelsior corners (-2.5)	46.1%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Telstar corners (+1.5)	43.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Excelsior corners (-3.5)	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Telstar corners (-1.5)	16.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Telstar corners (-2.5)	10.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Telstar corners (-3.5)	6.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	34.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	64.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	44.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	35.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	34.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	25.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.2%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.72
2-1	9.4%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
1-0	7.3%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
1-2	7.0%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.51
2-0	7.3%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
0-0	6.2%	7.4%	3.5%	2.11×	13.51
0-1	5.2%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.51
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
3-1	5.4%	7.4%	3.7%	2.03×	13.51
0-2	4.1%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.30
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.32
1-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.31
3-0	4.2%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.31
4-1	2.3%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.31
4-2	1.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32
Any other score	4.1%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (2nd half DNB)	58.8%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Telstar (2nd half DNB)	41.2%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior leading at HT (DNB)	61.9%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Telstar leading at HT (DNB)	38.1%	34.7%	—	—	2.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or Telstar (12)	73.9%	72.1%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Excelsior or draw (1X)	72.6%	72.1%	69.9%	1.03×	1.39
Telstar or draw (X2)	53.5%	52.7%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw at HT	77.5%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Telstar or draw at HT	63.4%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Excelsior or Telstar at HT	59.1%	57.7%	—	—	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw (1UP)	72.6%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Telstar or draw (1UP)	53.5%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw in 2nd half	72.8%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Excelsior or Telstar in 2nd half	66.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Telstar or draw in 2nd half	61.2%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.6%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	40.4%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (DNB)	62.9%	62.7%	59.6%	1.05×	1.60
Telstar (DNB)	37.1%	37.3%	40.4%	0.92×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score first	53.7%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Telstar to score first	40.1%	41.5%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	6.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.52

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.6%	56.6%	60.3%	0.94×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.4%	43.4%	39.7%	1.09×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.4%	44.4%	48.7%	0.91×	2.25
Not both score & under 2.5	30.1%	34.5%	28.8%	1.20×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.4%	11.7%	1.06×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	11.1%	0.75×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.1%	82.6%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.9%	17.4%	19.6%	0.89×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.0%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.0%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.9%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Both score 2nd half only	26.9%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	14.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.25
Both score in both halves	7.1%	6.8%	—	—	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.8%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.2%	18.8%	—	—	5.32

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	40.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.2%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
4-6 goals	32.0%	30.7%	33.8%	0.91×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.6%	20.2%	15.7%	1.29×	4.95
7+ goals	3.4%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.19

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar to score exactly 1	35.6%	35.9%	31.5%	1.14×	2.78
Telstar to score exactly 0	27.7%	27.4%	26.8%	1.02×	3.65
Telstar to score exactly 2	22.8%	22.3%	26.9%	0.83×	4.49
Telstar to score 3+	13.9%	12.9%	15.1%	0.86×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score exactly 1	30.8%	32.6%	33.2%	0.98×	3.07
Excelsior to score exactly 2	26.5%	26.5%	26.9%	0.99×	3.77
Excelsior to score 3+	24.8%	23.3%	23.7%	0.98×	4.29
Excelsior to score exactly 0	17.9%	18.8%	16.4%	1.14×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.9%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Excelsior leading at HT	36.6%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
Telstar leading at HT	22.5%	20.5%	—	—	4.87

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior -1: 2	53.5%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Excelsior -1: 1	25.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Excelsior -1: X	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar (0:1)	53.5%	51.3%	55.6%	0.92×	1.95
Excelsior (0:1)	25.6%	27.0%	25.3%	1.07×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	20.9%	24.2%	19.3%	1.25×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar (0:2)	74.4%	75.7%	74.7%	1.01×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.5%	11.0%	12.2%	0.90×	9.09
Excelsior (0:2)	11.1%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar (0:3)	88.9%	90.7%	86.8%	1.05×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.1%	5.8%	7.8%	0.75×	17.23
Excelsior (0:3)	4.0%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar (0:4)	96.0%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	2.6%	0.47×	81.86
Excelsior (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (1:0)	72.6%	72.4%	69.9%	1.04×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.3%	17.1%	14.8%	1.16×	5.85
Telstar (1:0)	12.1%	12.7%	15.5%	0.82×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (2:0)	87.9%	88.5%	84.5%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.1%	6.4%	8.8%	0.72×	15.66
Telstar (2:0)	4.1%	2.3%	6.8%	0.33×	43.63

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.1%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	25.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede	72.3%	73.1%	73.2%	1.00×	1.37
Excelsior clean sheet	27.7%	26.9%	26.8%	1.00×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior clean sheet in 1st half	59.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Excelsior to concede in 1st half	40.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede in 2nd half	53.7%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Excelsior clean sheet in 2nd half	46.3%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior over 2.5 corners	89.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Excelsior over 3.5 corners	80.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Excelsior over 4.5 corners	68.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Excelsior under 6.5 corners	57.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Excelsior over 5.5 corners	55.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Excelsior under 5.5 corners	45.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Excelsior over 6.5 corners	42.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Excelsior under 4.5 corners	32.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Excelsior under 3.5 corners	19.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Excelsior under 2.5 corners	10.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 3.5 goals	90.4%	92.2%	89.2%	1.03×	1.08
Excelsior over 0.5 goals	82.1%	82.2%	83.6%	0.98×	1.22
Excelsior under 2.5 goals	75.2%	77.7%	76.3%	1.02×	1.29
Excelsior over 1.5 goals	51.3%	53.2%	50.5%	1.05×	1.88
Excelsior under 1.5 goals	48.7%	46.8%	49.5%	0.95×	2.14
Excelsior over 2.5 goals	24.8%	22.3%	23.7%	0.94×	4.49
Excelsior under 0.5 goals	17.9%	17.8%	16.4%	1.08×	5.63
Excelsior over 3.5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	10.8%	0.72×	12.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 1st half	83.0%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Excelsior over 0.5 in 1st half	52.3%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Excelsior under 0.5 in 1st half	47.7%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Excelsior over 1.5 in 1st half	17.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior scores more in 2nd half	40.0%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Excelsior scores equally in both	33.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Excelsior scores more in 1st half	26.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar (home no bet)	51.3%	51.4%	54.1%	0.95×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	48.7%	48.6%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior even goals	51.6%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
Excelsior odd goals	48.4%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	20.9%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	14.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	11.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	7.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
Any other HT score	5.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	41.95
HT 0-2	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.96
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.14

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior at HT / Excelsior at FT	28.5%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Excelsior at FT	15.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Telstar at HT / Telstar at FT	14.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Telstar at FT	10.5%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Excelsior at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
Telstar at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Telstar at HT / Excelsior at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Excelsior at HT / Telstar at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score last	53.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Telstar to score last	40.0%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	6.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.52

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Excelsior to lead by 1 at any time	63.4%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Telstar to lead by 1 at any time	47.1%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Excelsior to lead by 2 at any time	32.9%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Telstar to lead by 2 at any time	18.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Excelsior to lead by 3 at any time	13.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.49
Telstar to lead by 3 at any time	5.7%	6.7%	—	—	15.04

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior most corners	66.8%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Telstar most corners	24.0%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	9.2%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.0%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.3%	78.7%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.9%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.8%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.5%	59.1%	58.9%	1.00×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.4%	53.2%	55.7%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.4%	48.5%	50.7%	0.96×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	39.0%	1.01×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.1%	39.2%	37.0%	1.06×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.0%	35.2%	33.8%	1.04×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.9%	30.2%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.2%	18.8%	16.9%	1.11×	5.31
7+ goals	3.4%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.10

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior never behind	46.7%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Telstar never behind	30.5%	36.1%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.5%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.5%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.5%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.5%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.5%	82.3%	79.1%	1.04×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	81.4%	82.3%	84.3%	0.98×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	64.6%	61.8%	62.3%	0.99×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.8%	58.6%	59.7%	0.98×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.2%	41.4%	40.3%	1.03×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.4%	38.2%	37.7%	1.01×	2.62
Under 1.5 goals	18.6%	17.7%	15.7%	1.13×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	18.5%	17.7%	20.9%	0.85×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	3.5%	2.21×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.6%	92.4%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.7%	75.9%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.6%	75.9%	79.2%	0.96×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.4%	51.9%	51.7%	1.01×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.6%	48.1%	48.3%	0.99×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.4%	24.1%	20.8%	1.16×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.3%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.4%	7.6%	10.3%	0.74×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.8%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.2%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.1%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.9%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.8%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.2%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.4%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.6%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.8%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar not to score in both halves	78.4%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Excelsior not to score in both halves	67.3%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Excelsior to score in both halves	32.7%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Telstar to score in both halves	21.6%	21.4%	—	—	4.67

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.6%	60.2%	60.3%	1.00×	1.66
Only Excelsior scores	21.5%	22.3%	23.4%	0.95×	4.49
Only Telstar scores	11.7%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.07
Neither team scores	6.2%	7.1%	3.5%	2.03×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.6%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.8%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.5%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.25
6 or more goals	8.4%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.2%	7.6%	3.5%	2.17×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	28.8%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.17

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.7%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.6%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
No goals in 2nd half	17.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar not to win both halves	93.7%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Excelsior not to win both halves	85.6%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Excelsior to win both halves	14.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Telstar to win both halves	6.3%	5.8%	—	—	17.14

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win either half	61.0%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Telstar to win neither half	56.6%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Telstar to win either half	43.4%	40.9%	—	—	2.45
Excelsior to win neither half	39.0%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Telstar not to win to nil	88.3%	88.1%	86.9%	1.01×	1.14
Excelsior not to win to nil	78.5%	78.1%	76.6%	1.02×	1.28
Excelsior to win to nil	21.5%	21.9%	23.4%	0.93×	4.57
Telstar to win to nil	11.7%	11.9%	13.1%	0.91×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.1%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
Excelsior by 1	20.9%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.15
Telstar by 1	15.3%	17.0%	14.8%	1.15×	5.87
Excelsior by 2	14.5%	11.8%	12.2%	0.97×	8.51
Excelsior by 3+	11.1%	11.7%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
Telstar by 2	8.1%	7.2%	8.8%	0.81×	13.90
Telstar by 3+	4.1%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	36.80