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F.C. København v AC Horsens — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · DEN-Superliga · 2627

DEN-Superliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
F.C. København win
63.9%
Draw
20.4%
AC Horsens win
15.8%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 9.8%
  2. 2-0 9.5%
  3. 1-1 9.4%
  4. 1-0 8.0%
  5. 3-1 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.563.2% Under 2.536.8%
BTTS yes58.0% BTTS no42.0%
F.C. København 1+89.2% F.C. København 2+65.2%
AC Horsens 1+64.3% AC Horsens 2+27.6%

Expected goals 2.23 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
68/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
91%
★ Best pick
F.C. København & over 1.5
1X2 & Over/Under · usually 35%
57.5% fair odds 1.74
strong signal · 1808 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 579 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • F.C. København carry the stronger rating, 1644 Elo against 1481.
  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • AC Horsens have only 5 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

F.C. København have an estimated 63.8% win probability, against 20.4% for the draw and 15.8% for AC Horsens. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.23 for F.C. København and 1.03 for AC Horsens.

Why F.C. København

F.C. København carry the stronger rating, 1644 Elo against 1481. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.4%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why AC Horsens can win

They have had 14 days' rest to F.C. København's 8.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for F.C. København, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for AC Horsens, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

F.C. København: 43% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. AC Horsens: 46% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

F.C. København are the model's most likely outcome at 63.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 68/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.23–1.03 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.77–1.05 2-1 9% 73% 61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København to win 63.8% 61.3% 44.8% 1.37× 1.63
Draw 20.4% 23.5% 25.5% 0.92× 4.26
AC Horsens to win 15.8% 18.0% 29.9% 0.60× 5.55
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København & both teams score 32.6% 31.0% 24.5% 1.27× 3.23
F.C. København & not both score 31.2% 31.0% 20.6% 1.50× 3.23
Draw & both teams score 16.0% 18.2% 19.8% 0.92× 5.49
AC Horsens & both teams score 9.4% 7.7% 16.8% 0.46× 13.04
AC Horsens & not both score 6.4% 7.7% 13.5% 0.57× 13.05
Draw & not both score 4.4% 4.1% 6.0% 0.68× 24.25
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København & over 1.5 55.8% 57.5% 35.4% 1.62× 1.74
F.C. København & over 2.5 46.3% 46.8% 29.4% 1.59× 2.14
F.C. København & under 3.5 34.5% 31.8% 27.2% 1.17× 3.15
F.C. København & over 3.5 29.4% 26.5% 17.9% 1.48× 3.78
F.C. København & under 2.5 17.5% 17.7% 15.7% 1.13× 5.66
Draw & over 1.5 16.0% 17.7% 19.8% 0.89× 5.66
Draw & under 2.5 13.8% 12.5% 16.8% 0.74× 8.03
Draw & under 3.5 13.8% 12.5% 16.8% 0.74× 8.03
AC Horsens & over 1.5 12.4% 12.5% 26.1% 0.48× 8.03
AC Horsens & over 2.5 10.3% 12.5% 20.9% 0.60× 8.03
AC Horsens & under 3.5 10.7% 12.5% 18.4% 0.68× 8.03
F.C. København & under 1.5 8.0% 7.6% 9.6% 0.79× 13.17
Draw & over 2.5 6.6% 7.6% 9.1% 0.84× 13.17
Draw & over 3.5 6.6% 7.6% 9.1% 0.84× 13.17
AC Horsens & under 2.5 5.4% 7.6% 9.3% 0.81× 13.17
AC Horsens & over 3.5 5.1% 7.6% 11.8% 0.64× 13.17
Draw & under 1.5 4.4% 4.3% 6.0% 0.72× 22.99
AC Horsens & under 1.5 3.4% 4.3% 4.1% 1.06× 23.00
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København (1UP) 76.4% 79.9% 1.25
AC Horsens (1UP) 35.2% 39.0% 2.56
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København (2UP) 63.8% 63.8% 1.57
AC Horsens (2UP) 15.8% 19.8% 5.04
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København to win 2nd half 52.1% 47.0% 2.13
2nd half drawn 30.0% 29.7% 3.36
AC Horsens to win 2nd half 17.9% 20.7% 4.82
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København (+0.5) 84.2% 83.1% 70.1% 1.19× 1.20
AC Horsens (+2.5) 77.9% 78.3% 91.8% 0.85× 1.28
F.C. København (-0.5) 63.8% 62.8% 44.8% 1.40× 1.59
AC Horsens (+1.5) 58.6% 58.3% 78.8% 0.74× 1.71
F.C. København (-1.5) 41.4% 41.7% 21.2% 1.97× 2.40
AC Horsens (+0.5) 36.2% 37.2% 55.2% 0.67× 2.69
F.C. København (-2.5) 22.1% 21.7% 8.2% 2.64× 4.60
AC Horsens (-0.5) 15.8% 16.9% 29.9% 0.56× 5.92
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens to concede 89.2% 88.2% 80.8% 1.09× 1.13
AC Horsens clean sheet 10.8% 11.8% 19.2% 0.61× 8.50
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens to concede in 1st half 61.6% 62.0% 1.61
AC Horsens clean sheet in 1st half 38.4% 38.0% 2.63
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens under 6.5 corners 91.1% 90.0% 1.11
AC Horsens under 5.5 corners 83.9% 81.5% 1.23
AC Horsens under 4.5 corners 72.5% 71.5% 1.40
AC Horsens over 2.5 corners 62.5% 61.8% 1.62
AC Horsens under 3.5 corners 56.7% 57.1% 1.75
AC Horsens over 3.5 corners 43.3% 42.9% 2.33
AC Horsens under 2.5 corners 37.5% 38.2% 2.62
AC Horsens over 4.5 corners 27.5% 28.5% 3.51
AC Horsens over 5.5 corners 16.1% 18.5% 5.39
AC Horsens over 6.5 corners 8.9% 10.0% 10.05
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens under 3.5 goals 97.9% 97.3% 93.7% 1.04× 1.03
AC Horsens under 2.5 goals 91.4% 92.1% 84.1% 1.10× 1.09
AC Horsens under 1.5 goals 72.4% 71.3% 57.7% 1.24× 1.40
AC Horsens over 0.5 goals 64.3% 63.7% 73.6% 0.87× 1.57
AC Horsens under 0.5 goals 35.7% 36.3% 26.4% 1.38× 2.76
AC Horsens over 1.5 goals 27.6% 28.7% 42.3% 0.68× 3.48
AC Horsens over 2.5 goals 8.6% 7.9% 15.9% 0.50× 12.61
AC Horsens over 3.5 goals 2.1% 2.7% 6.3% 0.42× 37.48
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens under 1.5 in 1st half 93.5% 93.7% 1.07
AC Horsens under 0.5 in 1st half 66.2% 66.8% 1.50
AC Horsens over 0.5 in 1st half 33.8% 33.2% 3.01
AC Horsens over 1.5 in 1st half 6.5% 6.3% 15.75
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København (away no bet) 75.8% 75.6% 63.7% 1.19× 1.32
Draw (away no bet) 24.2% 24.4% 36.3% 0.67× 4.09
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens even goals 56.4% 56.5% 57.7% 0.98× 1.77
AC Horsens odd goals 43.6% 43.5% 42.3% 1.03× 2.30
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 77.6% 78.4% 1.28
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.4% 21.6% 4.63
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 73.9% 69.4% 1.44
Both halves under 1.5 goals 26.1% 30.6% 3.27
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.6% 67.0% 1.49
F.C. København to score 2+ in a row 57.1% 58.1% 1.72
Either team to score 3+ in a row 31.6% 32.3% 3.10
F.C. København to score 3+ in a row 28.2% 27.1% 3.69
AC Horsens to score 2+ in a row 17.9% 17.4% 5.76
AC Horsens to score 3+ in a row 3.8% 3.1% 32.60
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København corners (+3.5) 96.4% 95.8% 1.04
F.C. København corners (+2.5) 93.7% 89.6% 1.12
F.C. København corners (+1.5) 89.5% 84.5% 1.18
F.C. København corners (-1.5) 66.2% 65.7% 1.52
F.C. København corners (-2.5) 55.9% 57.1% 1.75
AC Horsens corners (+3.5) 54.6% 52.5% 1.91
F.C. København corners (-3.5) 45.4% 47.5% 2.10
AC Horsens corners (+2.5) 44.1% 42.9% 2.33
AC Horsens corners (+1.5) 33.8% 34.3% 2.92
AC Horsens corners (-1.5) 10.5% 15.5% 6.46
AC Horsens corners (-2.5) 6.3% 10.4% 9.60
AC Horsens corners (-3.5) 3.6% 4.2% 23.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.1% 33.7% 2.97
12+ corners 33.5% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.4% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.4% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 72.8% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.5% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 62.9% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.3% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 52.6% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 47.4% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 42.7% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 37.1% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 33.5% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 27.2% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 25.6% 27.4% 3.66
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-1 9.8% 7.4% 10.2% 0.73× 13.48
1-0 8.0% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.48
1-1 9.4% 7.4% 11.0% 0.67× 13.48
2-0 9.5% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.48
3-0 7.1% 7.4% 1.9% 3.86× 13.48
3-1 7.3% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.48
Any other score 7.9% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.48
2-2 5.1% 7.4% 6.9% 1.08× 13.49
0-0 4.4% 1.7% 6.0% 0.28× 58.10
0-1 3.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.10
0-2 2.0% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.11
0-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.89× 58.11
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.11
1-2 4.6% 1.7% 7.7% 0.22× 58.10
1-3 1.6% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.11
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.11
2-3 1.7% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.11
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.13× 58.11
3-2 3.8% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.10
3-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.11
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 6.26× 58.11
4-0 3.9% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.10
4-1 4.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.10
4-2 2.1% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.11
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 3.13× 58.11
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 6.26× 58.11
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København leading at HT (DNB) 75.6% 78.0% 1.28
AC Horsens leading at HT (DNB) 24.4% 22.0% 4.56
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København or draw (1X) 84.2% 82.0% 70.1% 1.17× 1.22
F.C. København or AC Horsens (12) 79.6% 76.5% 74.5% 1.03× 1.31
AC Horsens or draw (X2) 36.2% 38.7% 55.2% 0.70× 2.59
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København or draw at HT 84.6% 83.6% 1.20
F.C. København or AC Horsens at HT 63.3% 62.7% 1.59
AC Horsens or draw at HT 52.1% 54.0% 1.85
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København or draw (1UP) 84.2% 86.2% 1.16
AC Horsens or draw (1UP) 36.2% 46.1% 2.17
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København or draw in 2nd half 82.1% 79.3% 1.26
F.C. København or AC Horsens in 2nd half 70.0% 70.3% 1.42
AC Horsens or draw in 2nd half 47.9% 53.0% 1.89
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 55.0% 55.0% 1.82
Neither half drawn 45.0% 45.0% 2.22
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København (DNB) 80.2% 81.9% 59.9% 1.37× 1.22
AC Horsens (DNB) 19.8% 18.1% 40.1% 0.45× 5.51
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København to score first 65.3% 70.1% 1.43
AC Horsens to score first 30.3% 32.6% 3.06
No goal scored 4.4% 4.5% 22.15
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.0% 55.7% 60.4% 0.92× 1.80
Not both teams to score 42.0% 44.3% 39.6% 1.12× 2.26
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.6% 45.2% 49.7% 0.91× 2.21
Not both score & under 2.5 27.4% 31.4% 30.5% 1.03× 3.18
Not both score & over 2.5 14.6% 11.9% 9.3% 1.27× 8.41
Both score & under 2.5 9.4% 8.5% 11.0% 0.77× 11.81
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 82.0% 83.1% 80.2% 1.04× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 18.0% 16.9% 19.8% 0.86× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.6% 68.0% 1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.4% 32.0% 3.13
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.6% 54.2% 1.85
Both score 2nd half only 26.5% 25.9% 3.86
Both score 1st half only 14.0% 11.9% 8.38
Both score in both halves 6.9% 7.1% 14.06
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.1% 79.6% 1.26
Both teams to score by HT 20.9% 20.4% 4.90
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.6% 62.6% 1.60
A half without a goal 36.4% 37.4% 2.67
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.2% 43.4% 42.9% 1.01× 2.31
4-6 goals 36.2% 35.5% 36.5% 0.97× 2.81
0-1 goals 15.8% 19.2% 19.2% 1.00× 5.22
7+ goals 4.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.04× 50.15
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 31.6% 1.14× 2.78
AC Horsens to score exactly 0 35.7% 36.0% 26.4% 1.36× 2.78
AC Horsens to score exactly 2 19.0% 18.4% 26.6% 0.69× 5.43
AC Horsens to score 3+ 8.6% 8.7% 15.9% 0.54× 11.52
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København to score 3+ 38.4% 36.5% 21.7% 1.68× 2.74
F.C. København to score exactly 2 26.8% 26.4% 26.1% 1.01× 3.79
F.C. København to score exactly 1 24.0% 22.9% 33.5% 0.68× 4.37
F.C. København to score exactly 0 10.8% 13.2% 19.2% 0.69× 7.59
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København leading at HT 47.9% 46.0% 2.18
Draw at HT 36.7% 37.3% 2.68
AC Horsens leading at HT 15.4% 16.4% 6.10
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København -1: 1 41.4% 41.4% 2.42
F.C. København -1: 2 36.2% 36.0% 2.78
F.C. København -1: X 22.4% 23.2% 4.30
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København (0:1) 41.4% 40.8% 21.2% 1.93× 2.45
AC Horsens (0:1) 36.2% 36.2% 55.2% 0.65× 2.77
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 23.5% 23.9% 0.98× 4.25
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens (0:2) 58.6% 59.6% 78.8% 0.76× 1.68
F.C. København (0:2) 22.1% 20.4% 8.2% 2.47× 4.91
Draw (0:2) 19.3% 15.7% 13.2% 1.19× 6.36
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens (0:3) 77.9% 78.7% 91.8% 0.86× 1.27
Draw (0:3) 12.2% 11.8% 3.6% 3.29× 8.50
F.C. København (0:3) 9.9% 6.4% 4.9% 1.30× 15.55
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens (0:4) 90.1% 93.6% 95.1% 0.98× 1.07
Draw (0:4) 6.1% 6.6% 3.3% 2.00× 15.17
F.C. København (0:4) 3.8% 1.4% 1.9% 0.74× 70.49
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København (1:0) 84.2% 82.7% 70.1% 1.18× 1.21
Draw (1:0) 10.1% 12.5% 14.6% 0.86× 8.02
AC Horsens (1:0) 5.7% 7.5% 15.7% 0.48× 13.33
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København (2:0) 94.3% 92.9% 84.3% 1.10× 1.08
Draw (2:0) 4.1% 2.8% 8.2% 0.33× 36.32
AC Horsens (2:0) 1.6% 2.7% 7.7% 0.36× 36.37
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.2% 48.6% 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.6% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 23.3% 23.2% 4.30
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København to concede 64.3% 65.5% 73.6% 0.89× 1.53
F.C. København clean sheet 35.7% 34.5% 26.4% 1.31× 2.90
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København clean sheet in 1st half 66.2% 66.5% 1.50
F.C. København to concede in 1st half 33.8% 33.5% 2.99
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København over 2.5 corners 91.6% 89.3% 1.12
F.C. København over 3.5 corners 83.1% 80.9% 1.24
F.C. København over 4.5 corners 72.1% 71.9% 1.39
F.C. København over 5.5 corners 59.8% 57.5% 1.74
F.C. København under 6.5 corners 52.5% 52.8% 1.90
F.C. København over 6.5 corners 47.5% 47.2% 2.12
F.C. København under 5.5 corners 40.2% 42.5% 2.35
F.C. København under 4.5 corners 27.9% 28.1% 3.56
F.C. København under 3.5 corners 16.9% 19.1% 5.25
F.C. København under 2.5 corners 8.4% 10.7% 9.34
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København over 0.5 goals 89.2% 87.5% 80.8% 1.08× 1.14
F.C. København under 3.5 goals 81.4% 82.2% 91.2% 0.90× 1.22
F.C. København over 1.5 goals 65.2% 68.4% 47.5% 1.44× 1.46
F.C. København under 2.5 goals 61.6% 62.4% 78.3% 0.80× 1.60
F.C. København over 2.5 goals 38.4% 37.6% 21.7% 1.73× 2.66
F.C. København under 1.5 goals 34.8% 31.6% 52.5% 0.60× 3.17
F.C. København over 3.5 goals 18.6% 17.8% 8.8% 2.03× 5.61
F.C. København under 0.5 goals 10.8% 12.5% 19.2% 0.65× 7.98
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København under 1.5 in 1st half 75.1% 76.2% 1.31
F.C. København over 0.5 in 1st half 61.6% 61.8% 1.62
F.C. København under 0.5 in 1st half 38.4% 38.2% 2.62
F.C. København over 1.5 in 1st half 24.9% 23.8% 4.21
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 56.4% 56.1% 46.0% 1.22× 1.78
AC Horsens (home no bet) 43.6% 43.9% 54.0% 0.81× 2.28
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København even goals 50.6% 50.9% 50.5% 1.01× 1.96
F.C. København odd goals 49.4% 49.1% 49.5% 0.99× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.5% 26.0% 3.85
HT 1-0 24.2% 22.2% 4.50
HT 2-0 11.6% 10.9% 9.15
HT 0-1 10.4% 10.9% 9.16
HT 1-1 10.1% 10.9% 9.16
Any other HT score 8.1% 8.0% 12.46
HT 2-1 4.8% 2.5% 40.33
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.5% 40.45
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.5% 40.46
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.5% 40.50
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København at HT / F.C. København at FT 41.8% 39.6% 2.52
Draw at HT / F.C. København at FT 18.7% 17.2% 5.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.7% 12.2% 8.21
AC Horsens at HT / AC Horsens at FT 8.0% 6.4% 15.54
Draw at HT / AC Horsens at FT 6.3% 6.4% 15.57
F.C. København at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.7% 27.27
AC Horsens at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.7% 27.28
AC Horsens at HT / F.C. København at FT 3.3% 3.7% 27.30
F.C. København at HT / AC Horsens at FT 1.5% 3.7% 27.35
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København to score last 65.4% 66.9% 1.50
AC Horsens to score last 30.2% 34.1% 2.93
No goal scored 4.4% 4.5% 22.15
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.6% 95.5% 1.05
F.C. København to lead by 1 at any time 76.4% 79.7% 1.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 58.8% 57.3% 1.75
F.C. København to lead by 2 at any time 48.7% 46.8% 2.14
AC Horsens to lead by 1 at any time 35.2% 38.0% 2.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 28.2% 25.8% 3.88
F.C. København to lead by 3 at any time 25.6% 25.7% 3.89
AC Horsens to lead by 2 at any time 10.4% 11.0% 9.13
AC Horsens to lead by 3 at any time 2.5% 2.5% 40.56
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København most corners 75.6% 73.8% 1.36
AC Horsens most corners 16.5% 19.1% 5.23
Corners level 7.9% 8.5% 11.80
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.4% 82.0% 85.4% 0.96× 1.22
2-6 goals 79.4% 77.9% 79.1% 0.98× 1.28
1-4 goals 72.6% 72.1% 73.9% 0.98× 1.39
2-5 goals 73.0% 72.1% 72.3% 1.00× 1.39
2-4 goals 61.2% 62.7% 60.7% 1.03× 1.60
3-6 goals 58.4% 58.8% 57.1% 1.03× 1.70
1-3 goals 54.6% 52.9% 56.0% 0.94× 1.89
3-5 goals 52.0% 52.9% 50.3% 1.05× 1.89
2-3 goals 43.2% 43.7% 42.9% 1.02× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.2% 43.7% 38.7% 1.13× 2.29
4-6 goals 36.2% 39.0% 36.5% 1.07× 2.56
1-2 goals 32.4% 34.6% 35.4% 0.98× 2.89
4-5 goals 29.8% 28.5% 29.7% 0.96× 3.50
5-6 goals 18.2% 18.8% 18.7% 1.01× 5.31
7+ goals 4.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.17× 44.52
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København never behind 60.3% 67.6% 1.48
AC Horsens never behind 19.2% 20.6% 4.85
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 51.2% 50.0% 53.0% 0.94× 2.00
Odd number of goals 48.8% 50.0% 47.0% 1.06× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.4% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.6% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.5% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.5% 48.5% 2.06
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.6% 96.0% 94.0% 1.02× 1.04
Under 5.5 goals 88.8% 87.7% 91.2% 0.96× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 84.2% 81.7% 80.8% 1.01× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 77.1% 77.0% 79.7% 0.97× 1.30
Over 2.5 goals 63.2% 62.3% 58.8% 1.06× 1.60
Under 3.5 goals 59.0% 57.5% 61.8% 0.93× 1.74
Over 3.5 goals 41.0% 42.5% 38.2% 1.11× 2.35
Under 2.5 goals 36.8% 37.7% 41.2% 0.91× 2.66
Over 4.5 goals 22.9% 23.0% 20.3% 1.13× 4.35
Under 1.5 goals 15.8% 18.3% 19.2% 0.95× 5.47
Over 5.5 goals 11.2% 12.3% 8.8% 1.40× 8.14
Under 0.5 goals 4.4% 4.0% 6.0% 0.66× 25.24
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.9% 92.0% 97.9% 0.94× 1.09
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.3% 86.6% 90.1% 0.96× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.0% 76.2% 75.4% 1.01× 1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 72.0% 71.7% 75.3% 0.95× 1.40
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.7% 52.8% 48.1% 1.10× 1.90
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.3% 47.2% 51.9% 0.91× 2.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 28.0% 28.3% 24.7% 1.14× 3.53
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 20.0% 23.8% 24.6% 0.96× 4.21
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 12.7% 13.4% 9.9% 1.34× 7.49
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.1% 8.0% 2.1% 3.85× 12.56
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.1% 83.9% 1.19
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.5% 73.5% 1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.1% 64.2% 1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.9% 35.8% 2.79
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.5% 26.5% 3.77
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.9% 16.1% 6.23
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.7% 82.7% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 70.7% 75.6% 1.32
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.5% 56.4% 1.77
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.5% 43.6% 2.29
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.3% 24.4% 4.11
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.3% 17.3% 5.78
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens not to score in both halves 84.4% 81.3% 1.23
F.C. København not to score in both halves 55.7% 60.4% 1.66
F.C. København to score in both halves 44.3% 39.6% 2.53
AC Horsens to score in both halves 15.6% 18.7% 5.35
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.0% 57.9% 60.4% 0.96× 1.73
Only F.C. København scores 31.2% 31.7% 20.6% 1.54× 3.16
Only AC Horsens scores 6.4% 7.2% 13.5% 0.53× 13.97
Neither team scores 4.4% 4.0% 6.0% 0.66× 25.10
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.3% 20.9% 1.07× 4.48
Exactly 2 goals 21.0% 22.3% 22.3% 1.00× 4.49
Exactly 4 goals 18.1% 17.6% 18.1% 0.97× 5.69
Exactly 1 goals 11.4% 12.3% 13.5% 0.91× 8.13
Exactly 5 goals 11.8% 12.3% 11.8% 1.04× 8.13
6 or more goals 11.2% 12.3% 8.8% 1.40× 8.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.4% 4.1% 6.0% 0.67× 24.65
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.5% 56.0% 1.79
1 goal in 2nd half 28.2% 26.7% 3.75
No goals in 2nd half 15.3% 16.5% 6.07
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens not to win both halves 97.2% 97.4% 1.03
F.C. København not to win both halves 74.9% 74.9% 1.34
F.C. København to win both halves 25.1% 25.1% 3.98
AC Horsens to win both halves 2.8% 2.6% 38.92
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København to win either half 74.9% 69.3% 1.44
AC Horsens to win neither half 69.4% 68.1% 1.47
AC Horsens to win either half 30.6% 31.9% 3.14
F.C. København to win neither half 25.1% 30.7% 3.26
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AC Horsens not to win to nil 93.6% 92.2% 86.5% 1.07× 1.08
F.C. København not to win to nil 68.8% 69.3% 79.4% 0.87× 1.44
F.C. København to win to nil 31.2% 30.7% 20.6% 1.49× 3.26
AC Horsens to win to nil 6.4% 7.8% 13.5% 0.58× 12.86
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
F.C. København by 1 22.4% 23.3% 23.9% 0.98× 4.29
F.C. København by 3+ 22.1% 23.3% 8.2% 2.83× 4.29
Draw 20.4% 23.3% 25.5% 0.91× 4.29
F.C. København by 2 19.3% 17.3% 13.2% 1.31× 5.78
AC Horsens by 1 10.1% 11.8% 14.6% 0.81× 8.46
AC Horsens by 2 4.1% 3.0% 8.2% 0.36× 33.80
AC Horsens by 3+ 1.6% 3.0% 7.7% 0.38× 33.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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