Fakel Voronezh v Spartak Moscow — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 30 November 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Fakel Voronezh

16:30 UTC

Spartak Moscow

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 894h before kick-off

Fakel Voronezh win

18.1%

model 15.3%

Draw

26.6%

model 27.6%

Spartak Moscow win

55.3%

model 57.1%

182755

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 14.9%
0-2 12.7%
1-1 12.6%
0-0 11.5%
1-2 8.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	39.8%	Under 2.5	60.2%
BTTS yes	41.3%	BTTS no	58.7%
Fakel Voronezh 1+	50.5%	Fakel Voronezh 2+	15.7%
Spartak Moscow 1+	79.3%	Spartak Moscow 2+	46.7%

Expected goals 0.70 – 1.58. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Spartak Moscow (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 28%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Spartak Moscow or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Spartak Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1341.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Spartak Moscow have an estimated 55.3% win probability, against 26.6% for the draw and 18.1% for Fakel Voronezh. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.70 for Fakel Voronezh and 1.57 for Spartak Moscow.

Why Fakel Voronezh

Nothing in the data singles out Fakel Voronezh.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. A combined 2.28 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Spartak Moscow can win

Spartak Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1341. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Fakel Voronezh, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Spartak Moscow, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fakel Voronezh: 45% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Spartak Moscow: 63% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Spartak Moscow are the model's most likely outcome at 55.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 14.9%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	152857	0.70–1.58	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	142957	0.59–1.45	0-1 18%	33%	35%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to win	57.0%	54.0%	28.0%	1.93×	1.85
Draw	29.2%	27.9%	28.0%	1.00×	3.58
Fakel Voronezh to win	13.8%	13.5%	44.1%	0.31×	7.40

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow & not both score	41.4%	40.0%	14.8%	2.70×	2.50
Spartak Moscow & both teams score	15.6%	18.0%	13.4%	1.34×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	14.9%	13.3%	20.9%	0.63×	7.53
Draw & not both score	14.3%	13.3%	7.3%	1.81×	7.53
Fakel Voronezh & not both score	9.2%	8.3%	25.4%	0.33×	12.00
Fakel Voronezh & both teams score	4.6%	4.9%	18.9%	0.26×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow & under 3.5	46.1%	45.0%	20.5%	2.19×	2.22
Spartak Moscow & over 1.5	39.2%	34.9%	20.5%	1.70×	2.87
Spartak Moscow & under 2.5	31.5%	30.8%	11.8%	2.61×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	26.6%	26.1%	22.2%	1.18×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.6%	26.1%	22.2%	1.18×	3.84
Spartak Moscow & over 2.5	25.5%	26.1%	16.5%	1.58×	3.84
Spartak Moscow & under 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	7.7%	2.33×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.9%	12.8%	20.9%	0.61×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	14.3%	12.8%	7.3%	1.75×	7.79
Fakel Voronezh & under 3.5	12.4%	12.8%	30.9%	0.42×	7.79
Spartak Moscow & over 3.5	10.9%	12.8%	7.7%	1.66×	7.79
Fakel Voronezh & under 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	18.3%	0.43×	12.63
Fakel Voronezh & over 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	33.5%	0.24×	12.63
Fakel Voronezh & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Fakel Voronezh & over 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	26.0%	0.30×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	2.6%	4.8%	6.1%	0.79×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	2.6%	4.8%	6.1%	0.79×	20.82
Fakel Voronezh & over 3.5	1.4%	4.8%	13.4%	0.36×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (1UP)	66.4%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Fakel Voronezh (1UP)	26.5%	26.7%	—	—	3.74

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (2UP)	57.0%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Fakel Voronezh (2UP)	13.8%	14.2%	—	—	7.03

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to win 2nd half	46.5%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
2nd half drawn	40.3%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Fakel Voronezh to win 2nd half	13.2%	11.3%	—	—	8.82

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.4%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
Spartak Moscow over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.0%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Spartak Moscow under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.0%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Spartak Moscow over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.6%	21.0%	—	—	4.77

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 in 2nd half	95.5%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 in 2nd half	71.6%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 in 2nd half	28.4%	26.1%	—	—	3.84
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 in 2nd half	4.5%	4.5%	—	—	22.40

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (+2.5)	99.4%	96.3%	89.6%	1.07×	1.04
Spartak Moscow (+1.5)	96.4%	96.3%	77.4%	1.24×	1.04
Spartak Moscow (+0.5)	86.2%	88.5%	55.9%	1.58×	1.13
Spartak Moscow (-0.5)	57.0%	57.0%	28.0%	2.03×	1.75
Fakel Voronezh (+0.5)	43.0%	43.0%	72.0%	0.60×	2.33
Fakel Voronezh (-0.5)	13.8%	11.5%	44.1%	0.26×	8.66
Fakel Voronezh (-1.5)	3.6%	3.7%	22.6%	0.16×	27.08
Fakel Voronezh (-2.5)	0.6%	3.7%	10.4%	0.35×	27.27

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow clean sheet	55.7%	62.3%	22.0%	2.84×	1.60
Spartak Moscow to concede	44.3%	37.7%	78.0%	0.48×	2.66

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow clean sheet in 1st half	77.8%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Spartak Moscow to concede in 1st half	22.2%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow clean sheet in 2nd half	71.6%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Spartak Moscow to concede in 2nd half	28.4%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow over 2.5 corners	84.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Spartak Moscow under 6.5 corners	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Spartak Moscow over 3.5 corners	70.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Spartak Moscow under 5.5 corners	60.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Spartak Moscow over 4.5 corners	54.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Spartak Moscow under 4.5 corners	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Spartak Moscow over 5.5 corners	39.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Spartak Moscow under 3.5 corners	29.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Spartak Moscow over 6.5 corners	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Spartak Moscow under 2.5 corners	15.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow under 3.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Spartak Moscow under 2.5 goals	82.2%	81.5%	88.8%	0.92×	1.23
Spartak Moscow over 0.5 goals	76.4%	76.3%	67.5%	1.13×	1.31
Spartak Moscow under 1.5 goals	57.6%	59.4%	70.1%	0.85×	1.68
Spartak Moscow over 1.5 goals	42.4%	40.6%	29.9%	1.36×	2.46
Spartak Moscow under 0.5 goals	23.6%	23.8%	32.5%	0.73×	4.21
Spartak Moscow over 2.5 goals	17.8%	18.5%	11.2%	1.66×	5.39
Spartak Moscow over 3.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	3.0%	2.51×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Spartak Moscow under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Spartak Moscow over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Spartak Moscow over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow scores more in 2nd half	40.1%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Spartak Moscow scores equally in both	36.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Spartak Moscow scores more in 1st half	23.0%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	68.0%	66.4%	38.9%	1.71×	1.51
Fakel Voronezh (away no bet)	32.0%	33.6%	61.1%	0.55×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow even goals	52.8%	52.6%	53.3%	0.99×	1.90
Spartak Moscow odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	46.7%	1.01×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.2%	92.3%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	—	—	12.97

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	52.2%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Not both halves under 1.5	47.8%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	44.4%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Spartak Moscow to score 2+ in a row	38.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.5%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Spartak Moscow to score 3+ in a row	14.3%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Fakel Voronezh to score 2+ in a row	8.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.90
Fakel Voronezh to score 3+ in a row	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.00

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow corners (+3.5)	92.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Spartak Moscow corners (+2.5)	86.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Spartak Moscow corners (+1.5)	79.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fakel Voronezh corners (+3.5)	75.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fakel Voronezh corners (+2.5)	65.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Fakel Voronezh corners (+1.5)	54.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Spartak Moscow corners (-1.5)	46.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Spartak Moscow corners (-2.5)	34.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Spartak Moscow corners (-3.5)	24.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fakel Voronezh corners (-1.5)	20.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fakel Voronezh corners (-2.5)	13.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Fakel Voronezh corners (-3.5)	7.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	30.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	21.8%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	63.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	52.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	36.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	21.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	17.8%	13.8%	7.7%	1.79×	7.23
0-0	14.3%	11.5%	7.3%	1.57×	8.72
0-2	13.7%	11.5%	4.3%	2.69×	8.72
1-1	12.3%	11.5%	15.0%	0.76×	8.72
0-3	6.6%	7.4%	2.4%	3.04×	13.51
1-0	6.5%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
0-4	2.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.22×	58.31
1-3	3.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
1-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.69×	58.31
2-0	2.2%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.31
2-1	3.2%	1.7%	8.9%	0.19×	58.30
2-2	2.3%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.31
2-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.11×	58.32
3-0	0.4%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.32
3-1	0.6%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.32
3-2	0.5%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.32
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.22×	58.32
4-0	0.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.32
4-1	0.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.21×	58.32
4-2	0.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.11×	58.32
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.22×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.44×	58.32
Any other score	1.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (2nd half DNB)	77.9%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Fakel Voronezh (2nd half DNB)	22.1%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow leading at HT (DNB)	73.4%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Fakel Voronezh leading at HT (DNB)	26.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow or draw (X2)	86.2%	86.5%	55.9%	1.55×	1.16
Fakel Voronezh or Spartak Moscow (12)	70.8%	72.1%	72.0%	1.00×	1.39
Fakel Voronezh or draw (1X)	43.0%	46.0%	72.0%	0.64×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow or draw at HT	86.8%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Fakel Voronezh or draw at HT	63.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Fakel Voronezh or Spartak Moscow at HT	49.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow or draw (1UP)	86.2%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Fakel Voronezh or draw (1UP)	43.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow or draw in 2nd half	86.8%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Fakel Voronezh or Spartak Moscow in 2nd half	59.7%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Fakel Voronezh or draw in 2nd half	53.5%	54.2%	—	—	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	69.2%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Neither half drawn	30.8%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (DNB)	80.5%	80.2%	38.9%	2.06×	1.25
Fakel Voronezh (DNB)	19.5%	19.8%	61.1%	0.32×	5.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to score first	61.0%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Fakel Voronezh to score first	24.7%	23.2%	—	—	4.31
No goal scored	14.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	64.9%	56.7%	47.2%	1.20×	1.76
Both teams to score	35.1%	43.3%	52.8%	0.82×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	54.5%	47.3%	37.0%	1.28×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	22.8%	27.8%	38.0%	0.73×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.3%	12.4%	15.0%	0.82×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.4%	12.4%	10.4%	1.19×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	95.0%	91.6%	86.8%	1.06×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	5.0%	8.4%	13.2%	0.64×	11.87

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	83.1%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	16.9%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	74.8%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Both score 2nd half only	15.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Both score 1st half only	8.4%	6.8%	—	—	14.64
Both score in both halves	1.6%	4.8%	—	—	20.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	90.0%	90.5%	—	—	1.11
Both teams to score by HT	10.0%	9.5%	—	—	10.53

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	60.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A goal in each half	40.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	48.0%	0.98×	2.12
0-1 goals	38.6%	35.1%	25.4%	1.38×	2.85
4-6 goals	14.4%	16.9%	25.4%	0.67×	5.91
7+ goals	0.5%	1.8%	1.6%	1.13×	54.46

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to score exactly 1	34.1%	33.8%	37.8%	0.90×	2.96
Spartak Moscow to score exactly 2	24.6%	22.3%	18.9%	1.18×	4.48
Spartak Moscow to score exactly 0	23.6%	22.3%	32.5%	0.69×	4.48
Spartak Moscow to score 3+	17.8%	19.6%	11.2%	1.75×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 0	55.7%	44.6%	22.0%	2.03×	2.24
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 1	32.6%	32.6%	35.2%	0.93×	3.07
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 2	9.5%	10.3%	24.6%	0.42×	9.69
Fakel Voronezh to score 3+	2.2%	6.1%	18.7%	0.33×	16.34

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	50.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Spartak Moscow leading at HT	36.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Fakel Voronezh leading at HT	13.2%	12.3%	—	—	8.15

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow -1: 1	43.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Spartak Moscow -1: 2	30.0%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Spartak Moscow -1: X	27.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (0:1)	86.2%	89.2%	55.9%	1.60×	1.12
Draw (0:1)	10.2%	13.7%	21.7%	0.63×	7.31
Fakel Voronezh (0:1)	3.6%	5.7%	22.6%	0.25×	17.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (0:2)	96.4%	94.2%	77.4%	1.22×	1.06
Draw (0:2)	2.9%	3.7%	12.4%	0.30×	26.70
Fakel Voronezh (0:2)	0.6%	3.7%	10.4%	0.36×	26.84

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (0:3)	99.4%	96.7%	89.6%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	0.5%	2.4%	5.9%	0.40×	42.19
Fakel Voronezh (0:3)	0.1%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (0:4)	99.9%	98.1%	95.3%	1.03×	1.02
Fakel Voronezh (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.2%	1.00×	82.10
Draw (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	3.7%	0.33×	82.10

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh (1:0)	43.0%	43.4%	72.0%	0.60×	2.31
Spartak Moscow (1:0)	30.0%	29.9%	11.4%	2.63×	3.34
Draw (1:0)	27.0%	25.0%	16.9%	1.48×	3.99

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh (2:0)	70.0%	71.1%	88.6%	0.80×	1.41
Draw (2:0)	18.0%	15.8%	7.3%	2.16×	6.32
Spartak Moscow (2:0)	12.0%	10.3%	4.3%	2.41×	9.72

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.7%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Halves equal	31.6%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
1st half highest scoring	24.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to concede	76.4%	76.1%	67.5%	1.13×	1.32
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet	23.6%	23.9%	32.5%	0.74×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Fakel Voronezh to concede in 1st half	43.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to concede in 2nd half	58.0%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet in 2nd half	42.0%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 6.5 corners	87.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Fakel Voronezh under 5.5 corners	78.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Fakel Voronezh over 2.5 corners	70.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Fakel Voronezh under 4.5 corners	65.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Fakel Voronezh over 3.5 corners	51.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Fakel Voronezh under 3.5 corners	48.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Fakel Voronezh over 4.5 corners	34.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Fakel Voronezh under 2.5 corners	29.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Fakel Voronezh over 5.5 corners	21.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Fakel Voronezh over 6.5 corners	12.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 3.5 goals	99.7%	96.4%	92.7%	1.04×	1.04
Fakel Voronezh under 2.5 goals	97.8%	96.4%	81.3%	1.19×	1.04
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 goals	88.3%	87.3%	56.9%	1.53×	1.15
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 goals	55.7%	58.6%	22.0%	2.67×	1.71
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 goals	44.3%	41.4%	78.0%	0.53×	2.41
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 goals	11.7%	12.7%	43.1%	0.30×	7.85
Fakel Voronezh over 2.5 goals	2.2%	3.6%	18.7%	0.19×	27.57
Fakel Voronezh over 3.5 goals	0.3%	3.6%	7.3%	0.49×	27.65

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 in 1st half	97.3%	97.4%	—	—	1.03
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 in 1st half	77.8%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 in 1st half	22.2%	23.0%	—	—	4.34
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 in 1st half	2.7%	2.6%	—	—	39.09

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh scores equally in both	60.5%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Fakel Voronezh scores more in 2nd half	22.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Fakel Voronezh scores more in 1st half	16.6%	15.2%	—	—	6.56

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (home no bet)	66.1%	64.1%	50.0%	1.28×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	33.9%	35.9%	50.0%	0.72×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh even goals	65.5%	65.2%	50.6%	1.29×	1.53
Fakel Voronezh odd goals	34.5%	34.8%	49.4%	0.70×	2.87

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	43.8%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
HT 0-1	25.0%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
HT 1-0	10.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 0-2	7.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 1-1	6.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
Any other HT score	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.14
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 2-0	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 2-1	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.24
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.28

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow at HT / Spartak Moscow at FT	32.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Draw at HT / Spartak Moscow at FT	22.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.6%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	7.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
Draw at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Spartak Moscow at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.66
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Spartak Moscow at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.71
Spartak Moscow at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	0.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.77

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to score last	61.3%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Fakel Voronezh to score last	24.4%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
No goal scored	14.3%	9.8%	—	—	10.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	85.7%	90.9%	—	—	1.10
Spartak Moscow to lead by 1 at any time	66.4%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	39.3%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Spartak Moscow to lead by 2 at any time	33.8%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 1 at any time	26.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Spartak Moscow to lead by 3 at any time	13.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 2 at any time	5.5%	6.7%	—	—	15.00
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 3 at any time	0.9%	1.6%	—	—	63.83

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow most corners	58.1%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Fakel Voronezh most corners	30.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.9%	83.4%	87.6%	0.95×	1.20
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	79.7%	1.05×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.8%	72.4%	66.1%	1.10×	1.38
2-6 goals	61.0%	63.3%	73.2%	0.87×	1.58
2-5 goals	59.7%	59.1%	69.5%	0.85×	1.69
2-4 goals	55.9%	59.1%	61.6%	0.96×	1.69
1-2 goals	52.5%	53.2%	44.7%	1.19×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	48.0%	1.01×	2.06
3-6 goals	32.7%	35.2%	46.7%	0.75×	2.84
3-5 goals	31.4%	35.2%	43.1%	0.82×	2.84
3-4 goals	27.6%	30.2%	35.2%	0.86×	3.31
4-6 goals	14.4%	14.8%	25.4%	0.58×	6.75
4-5 goals	13.1%	14.8%	21.7%	0.68×	6.75
5-6 goals	5.1%	8.9%	11.8%	0.75×	11.28
7+ goals	0.5%	2.6%	1.6%	1.57×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow never behind	59.1%	62.7%	—	—	1.59
Fakel Voronezh never behind	19.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.7%	50.9%	48.8%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.3%	49.1%	51.2%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.9%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Odd goals in 1st half	40.1%	41.9%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.4%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.6%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.2%	95.4%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	86.8%	1.06×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	85.7%	87.6%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	85.2%	87.6%	73.2%	1.20×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	66.8%	66.3%	51.8%	1.28×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	61.4%	61.7%	74.6%	0.83×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	38.6%	38.3%	25.4%	1.51×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	33.2%	33.7%	48.2%	0.70×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	14.8%	12.4%	26.8%	0.46×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	14.3%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	13.2%	0.58×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	1.8%	4.6%	5.3%	0.86×	21.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.5%	97.2%	98.3%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.2%	97.2%	94.3%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	93.9%	92.4%	84.7%	1.09×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	81.8%	81.1%	65.9%	1.23×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	53.8%	51.9%	34.5%	1.50×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	46.2%	48.1%	65.5%	0.73×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	18.2%	18.9%	34.1%	0.55×	5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	6.1%	7.6%	15.3%	0.50×	13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.8%	2.8%	5.7%	0.49×	35.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.5%	2.8%	1.7%	1.66×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.8%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	79.6%	78.5%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	20.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.2%	7.2%	—	—	13.95

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.9%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.8%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.2%	31.3%	—	—	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.1%	14.5%	—	—	6.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to score in both halves	93.7%	90.7%	—	—	1.10
Spartak Moscow not to score in both halves	74.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Spartak Moscow to score in both halves	25.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
Fakel Voronezh to score in both halves	6.3%	9.3%	—	—	10.76

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Spartak Moscow scores	41.4%	46.5%	14.8%	3.14×	2.15
Both teams score	35.1%	39.9%	52.8%	0.75×	2.51
Neither team scores	14.3%	11.0%	7.3%	1.51×	9.05
Only Fakel Voronezh scores	9.2%	7.1%	25.4%	0.28×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.3%	24.9%	26.6%	0.93×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	24.2%	22.6%	18.3%	1.23×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	18.3%	17.5%	21.5%	0.81×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	14.3%	12.1%	7.3%	1.66×	8.24
Exactly 4 goals	9.3%	7.6%	13.8%	0.55×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	3.8%	4.5%	8.1%	0.55×	22.38
6 or more goals	1.8%	4.5%	5.3%	0.84×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	43.8%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
1 goal in 1st half	35.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	15.2%	15.6%	—	—	6.42
3+ goals in 1st half	5.2%	7.2%	—	—	13.95

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.3%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
2+ goals in 2nd half	34.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	30.5%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to win both halves	98.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Spartak Moscow not to win both halves	82.9%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Spartak Moscow to win both halves	17.1%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Fakel Voronezh to win both halves	1.8%	2.8%	—	—	36.06

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to win neither half	75.5%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Spartak Moscow to win either half	65.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Spartak Moscow to win neither half	34.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Fakel Voronezh to win either half	24.5%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to win to nil	90.8%	92.1%	74.6%	1.23×	1.09
Spartak Moscow not to win to nil	58.6%	59.3%	85.2%	0.70×	1.69
Spartak Moscow to win to nil	41.4%	40.7%	14.8%	2.74×	2.46
Fakel Voronezh to win to nil	9.2%	7.9%	25.4%	0.31×	12.62

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.2%	27.9%	28.0%	0.99×	3.58
Spartak Moscow by 1	27.0%	27.9%	16.9%	1.65×	3.59
Spartak Moscow by 2	18.0%	17.0%	7.3%	2.33×	5.87
Spartak Moscow by 3+	12.0%	11.8%	4.3%	2.75×	8.51
Fakel Voronezh by 1	10.2%	11.7%	21.7%	0.54×	8.51
Fakel Voronezh by 2	2.9%	2.7%	12.4%	0.22×	36.81
Fakel Voronezh by 3+	0.6%	2.7%	10.4%	0.26×	36.89