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FC Andorra v Burgos — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Andorra win
46.5%
model 45.0%
Draw
26.8%
model 26.4%
Burgos win
26.8%
model 28.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 12.7%
  2. 1-1 12.4%
  3. 0-1 9.6%
  4. 2-1 8.8%
  5. 0-0 8.6%

Goals

Over 2.543.3% Under 2.556.7%
BTTS yes47.8% BTTS no52.2%
FC Andorra 1+74.7% FC Andorra 2+40.0%
Burgos 1+64.5% Burgos 2+27.7%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
53/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out FC Andorra.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Andorra have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 26.8% for Burgos and 26.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for FC Andorra and 1.03 for Burgos.

Why FC Andorra

Nothing in the data singles out FC Andorra.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Burgos can win

Burgos carry the stronger rating, 1583 Elo against 1495. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Andorra, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Burgos, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Andorra: 65% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 6.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Burgos: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Andorra's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

FC Andorra are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.7%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.24–1.02 1-0 13% 39% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra to win 41.5% 43.0% 45.5% 0.95× 2.33
Burgos to win 30.6% 30.4% 28.0% 1.08× 3.29
Draw 27.8% 27.9% 26.6% 1.05× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra & not both score 25.9% 25.1% 23.6% 1.06× 3.98
Burgos & not both score 18.8% 17.9% 13.4% 1.33× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 17.7% 17.9% 17.5% 1.02× 5.58
FC Andorra & both teams score 15.6% 17.9% 22.0% 0.82× 5.58
Burgos & both teams score 11.8% 13.3% 14.7% 0.90× 7.54
Draw & not both score 10.1% 13.3% 9.1% 1.45× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra & under 3.5 32.8% 30.8% 32.2% 0.96× 3.24
FC Andorra & over 1.5 28.3% 26.0% 32.6% 0.80× 3.84
Burgos & under 3.5 25.0% 21.6% 19.6% 1.10× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 23.0% 21.6% 20.3% 1.07× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 23.0% 21.6% 20.3% 1.07× 4.63
FC Andorra & under 2.5 21.3% 21.6% 19.3% 1.12× 4.63
FC Andorra & over 2.5 20.3% 21.6% 26.3% 0.82× 4.63
Burgos & over 1.5 19.7% 18.0% 19.4% 0.93× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.7% 18.0% 17.5% 1.03× 5.56
Burgos & under 2.5 16.4% 18.0% 11.6% 1.56× 5.56
Burgos & over 2.5 14.2% 12.9% 16.6% 0.78× 7.76
FC Andorra & under 1.5 13.2% 12.9% 13.0% 0.99× 7.76
Burgos & under 1.5 11.0% 12.9% 8.7% 1.48× 7.76
Draw & under 1.5 10.1% 12.9% 9.1% 1.41× 7.76
FC Andorra & over 3.5 8.8% 7.9% 13.3% 0.59× 12.65
Burgos & over 3.5 5.7% 7.9% 8.5% 0.93× 12.65
Draw & over 2.5 4.8% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.85
Draw & over 3.5 4.8% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.85
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra (1UP) 55.2% 57.9% 1.73
Burgos (1UP) 45.5% 43.1% 2.32
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra (2UP) 41.5% 47.6% 2.10
Burgos (2UP) 30.6% 30.7% 3.26
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.4% 36.0% 2.78
FC Andorra to win 2nd half 33.2% 34.5% 2.90
Burgos to win 2nd half 27.4% 26.4% 3.79
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (+2.5) 93.8% 92.1% 92.3% 1.00× 1.09
Burgos (+1.5) 81.8% 82.5% 80.5% 1.02× 1.21
FC Andorra (+0.5) 69.4% 68.7% 72.0% 0.96× 1.46
Burgos (+0.5) 58.5% 57.0% 54.5% 1.05× 1.75
FC Andorra (-0.5) 41.5% 43.0% 45.5% 0.95× 2.33
Burgos (-0.5) 30.6% 31.3% 28.0% 1.12× 3.20
FC Andorra (-1.5) 18.2% 17.5% 19.5% 0.90× 5.70
FC Andorra (-2.5) 6.2% 7.9% 7.7% 1.03× 12.61
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to concede 71.0% 76.6% 77.5% 0.99× 1.31
Burgos clean sheet 29.0% 23.4% 22.5% 1.04× 4.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos clean sheet in 1st half 58.7% 58.5% 1.71
Burgos to concede in 1st half 41.3% 41.5% 2.41
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 6.5 corners 94.2% 90.0% 1.11
Burgos under 5.5 corners 88.4% 85.2% 1.17
Burgos under 4.5 corners 78.4% 76.0% 1.32
Burgos under 3.5 corners 63.2% 61.8% 1.62
Burgos over 2.5 corners 56.7% 57.1% 1.75
Burgos under 2.5 corners 43.3% 42.9% 2.33
Burgos over 3.5 corners 36.8% 38.2% 2.62
Burgos over 4.5 corners 21.6% 24.0% 4.16
Burgos over 5.5 corners 11.6% 14.8% 6.77
Burgos over 6.5 corners 5.8% 10.0% 9.97
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 3.5 goals 98.0% 97.5% 97.0% 1.01× 1.03
Burgos under 2.5 goals 91.6% 92.3% 89.2% 1.04× 1.08
Burgos under 1.5 goals 72.8% 71.9% 69.4% 1.04× 1.39
Burgos over 0.5 goals 63.9% 63.1% 67.3% 0.94× 1.59
Burgos under 0.5 goals 36.1% 36.9% 32.7% 1.13× 2.71
Burgos over 1.5 goals 27.2% 28.1% 30.6% 0.92× 3.56
Burgos over 2.5 goals 8.4% 7.7% 10.8% 0.71× 13.00
Burgos over 3.5 goals 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 0.82× 40.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 1.5 in 1st half 93.6% 94.2% 1.06
Burgos under 0.5 in 1st half 66.5% 68.4% 1.46
Burgos over 0.5 in 1st half 33.5% 31.6% 3.17
Burgos over 1.5 in 1st half 6.4% 5.8% 17.30
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra (away no bet) 59.9% 57.4% 63.1% 0.91× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 40.1% 42.6% 36.9% 1.16× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos even goals 56.5% 56.9% 54.7% 1.04× 1.76
Burgos odd goals 43.5% 43.1% 45.3% 0.95× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.8% 92.3% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 12.94
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 52.8% 50.4% 1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals 47.2% 49.6% 2.02
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 46.0% 45.8% 2.19
FC Andorra to score 2+ in a row 28.8% 25.1% 3.99
Burgos to score 2+ in a row 21.0% 19.4% 5.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row 13.8% 12.2% 8.20
FC Andorra to score 3+ in a row 8.8% 5.7% 17.63
Burgos to score 3+ in a row 5.2% 5.6% 17.92
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra corners (+3.5) 96.1% 95.8% 1.04
FC Andorra corners (+2.5) 92.6% 89.6% 1.12
FC Andorra corners (+1.5) 87.1% 84.5% 1.18
Burgos corners (+3.5) 66.4% 65.8% 1.52
FC Andorra corners (-1.5) 57.2% 57.1% 1.75
Burgos corners (+2.5) 55.0% 52.5% 1.91
FC Andorra corners (-2.5) 45.0% 47.5% 2.10
Burgos corners (+1.5) 42.8% 42.9% 2.33
FC Andorra corners (-3.5) 33.6% 34.2% 2.93
Burgos corners (-1.5) 12.9% 15.5% 6.45
Burgos corners (-2.5) 7.4% 10.4% 9.58
Burgos corners (-3.5) 3.9% 4.2% 23.64
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 54.8% 45.4% 2.20
9-11 corners 27.7% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 17.5% 22.7% 4.41
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 88.2% 83.0% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 82.5% 80.7% 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 75.0% 76.5% 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 65.7% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 57.0% 57.9% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 54.8% 53.2% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 45.2% 46.8% 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 43.0% 42.1% 2.38
Over 9.5 corners 34.3% 32.3% 3.10
Over 10.5 corners 25.0% 23.5% 4.26
Over 11.5 corners 17.5% 19.3% 5.18
Over 12.5 corners 11.8% 17.0% 5.88
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 13.2% 11.4% 13.0% 0.88× 8.74
1-1 12.9% 11.4% 11.2% 1.02× 8.74
0-1 11.0% 11.4% 8.7% 1.31× 8.74
0-0 10.1% 11.4% 9.1% 1.25× 8.74
1-2 6.7% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.50
2-0 8.0% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.50
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 10.1% 0.73× 13.50
0-2 5.4% 7.4% 2.9% 2.52× 13.50
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.31
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.32
1-3 2.3% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.31
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.04× 58.32
2-2 4.2% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.30
2-3 1.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.31
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.32
3-0 3.3% 1.7% 3.0% 0.56× 58.30
3-1 3.4% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.30
3-2 1.7% 1.7% 2.8% 0.60× 58.31
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.16× 58.32
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.31
4-1 1.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.31
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.44× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.16× 58.32
Any other score 1.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra leading at HT (DNB) 58.2% 58.5% 1.71
Burgos leading at HT (DNB) 41.8% 41.5% 2.41
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra or Burgos (12) 72.2% 72.2% 73.4% 0.98× 1.39
FC Andorra or draw (1X) 69.4% 69.6% 72.0% 0.97× 1.44
Burgos or draw (X2) 58.5% 57.0% 54.5% 1.05× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra or draw at HT 78.2% 80.0% 1.25
Burgos or draw at HT 69.7% 66.4% 1.51
FC Andorra or Burgos at HT 52.1% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra or draw (1UP) 69.4% 76.1% 1.31
Burgos or draw (1UP) 58.5% 62.8% 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra or draw in 2nd half 72.6% 73.6% 1.36
Burgos or draw in 2nd half 66.8% 65.5% 1.53
FC Andorra or Burgos in 2nd half 60.6% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.8% 69.6% 1.44
Neither half drawn 31.2% 30.4% 3.29
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra (DNB) 57.5% 58.2% 61.9% 0.94× 1.72
Burgos (DNB) 42.5% 41.8% 38.1% 1.10× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra to score first 49.3% 45.7% 2.19
Burgos to score first 40.6% 41.7% 2.40
No goal scored 10.1% 9.4% 10.60
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.9% 51.4% 46.0% 1.12× 1.95
Both teams to score 45.1% 48.6% 54.0% 0.90× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 47.8% 44.2% 39.8% 1.11× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 32.2% 34.4% 42.9% 0.80× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 12.9% 12.3% 11.2% 1.10× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 7.1% 8.3% 6.3% 1.32× 12.00
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.5% 89.1% 85.6% 1.04× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 9.5% 10.9% 14.4% 0.76× 9.13
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 76.9% 75.2% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 23.1% 24.8% 4.03
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 66.3% 62.0% 1.61
Both score 2nd half only 19.9% 15.8% 6.34
Both score 1st half only 10.6% 10.7% 9.36
Both score in both halves 3.2% 5.0% 20.09
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.2% 86.1% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 13.8% 13.9% 7.20
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 55.5% 57.2% 1.75
A goal in each half 44.5% 42.8% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.4% 47.3% 41.4% 1.14× 2.12
0-1 goals 34.3% 30.8% 30.7% 1.00× 3.25
4-6 goals 18.4% 20.3% 26.6% 0.76× 4.93
7+ goals 0.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.16× 54.81
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 36.9% 0.98× 2.78
Burgos to score exactly 0 36.1% 36.0% 32.7% 1.10× 2.78
Burgos to score exactly 2 18.8% 19.6% 19.9% 0.99× 5.10
Burgos to score 3+ 8.4% 8.5% 10.8% 0.79× 11.71
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra to score exactly 1 35.9% 35.6% 35.6% 1.00× 2.81
FC Andorra to score exactly 0 29.0% 26.5% 22.5% 1.18× 3.77
FC Andorra to score exactly 2 22.2% 23.2% 25.0% 0.93× 4.31
FC Andorra to score 3+ 12.9% 14.4% 17.1% 0.84× 6.95
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.9% 52.4% 1.91
FC Andorra leading at HT 30.3% 33.6% 2.97
Burgos leading at HT 21.8% 20.0% 5.00
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra -1: 2 58.5% 56.7% 1.76
FC Andorra -1: X 23.3% 23.6% 4.24
FC Andorra -1: 1 18.2% 17.4% 5.74
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:1) 58.5% 55.8% 54.5% 1.02× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 23.3% 24.3% 26.1% 0.93× 4.12
FC Andorra (0:1) 18.2% 17.8% 19.5% 0.91× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:2) 81.8% 82.9% 80.5% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 12.0% 10.9% 12.0% 0.91× 9.17
FC Andorra (0:2) 6.2% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:3) 93.8% 92.6% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.5% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.03
FC Andorra (0:3) 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 0.98× 42.15
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:4) 98.3% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 83.60
FC Andorra (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 2.84× 83.71
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra (1:0) 69.4% 70.1% 72.0% 0.97× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 19.3% 17.0% 18.0% 0.95× 5.88
Burgos (1:0) 11.4% 12.8% 10.2% 1.25× 7.84
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra (2:0) 88.6% 88.4% 89.8% 0.98× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.1% 6.5% 7.0% 0.92× 15.49
Burgos (2:0) 3.3% 2.3% 3.3% 0.70× 43.65
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.6% 48.2% 2.08
Halves equal 27.6% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.9% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra to concede 63.9% 63.6% 67.3% 0.94× 1.57
FC Andorra clean sheet 36.1% 36.4% 32.7% 1.11× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra clean sheet in 1st half 66.5% 68.7% 1.46
FC Andorra to concede in 1st half 33.5% 31.3% 3.20
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra over 2.5 corners 84.9% 81.0% 1.24
FC Andorra over 3.5 corners 72.0% 71.9% 1.39
FC Andorra under 6.5 corners 70.0% 71.9% 1.39
FC Andorra over 4.5 corners 57.1% 57.6% 1.74
FC Andorra under 5.5 corners 57.4% 57.6% 1.74
FC Andorra under 4.5 corners 42.9% 42.4% 2.36
FC Andorra over 5.5 corners 42.6% 42.4% 2.36
FC Andorra over 6.5 corners 30.0% 28.1% 3.55
FC Andorra under 3.5 corners 28.0% 28.1% 3.56
FC Andorra under 2.5 corners 15.1% 19.0% 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra under 3.5 goals 96.3% 96.3% 93.7% 1.03× 1.04
FC Andorra under 2.5 goals 87.1% 87.2% 82.9% 1.05× 1.15
FC Andorra over 0.5 goals 71.0% 74.2% 77.5% 0.96× 1.35
FC Andorra under 1.5 goals 64.9% 63.5% 58.0% 1.10× 1.57
FC Andorra over 1.5 goals 35.1% 36.5% 42.0% 0.87× 2.74
FC Andorra under 0.5 goals 29.0% 25.8% 22.5% 1.15× 3.88
FC Andorra over 2.5 goals 12.9% 12.8% 17.1% 0.75× 7.82
FC Andorra over 3.5 goals 3.7% 3.7% 6.3% 0.58× 27.28
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra under 1.5 in 1st half 90.0% 89.9% 1.11
FC Andorra under 0.5 in 1st half 58.7% 58.2% 1.72
FC Andorra over 0.5 in 1st half 41.3% 41.8% 2.39
FC Andorra over 1.5 in 1st half 10.0% 10.1% 9.91
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (home no bet) 52.4% 51.5% 51.3% 1.00× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 47.6% 48.5% 48.7% 1.00× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra even goals 54.2% 50.6% 51.8% 0.98× 1.98
FC Andorra odd goals 45.8% 49.4% 48.2% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 39.0% 38.9% 2.57
HT 1-0 20.8% 24.1% 4.14
HT 0-1 16.0% 18.6% 5.37
HT 1-1 8.4% 7.1% 14.01
HT 2-0 5.5% 7.1% 14.05
HT 0-2 3.2% 2.3% 43.47
Any other HT score 2.5% 2.3% 43.52
HT 2-1 2.3% 2.3% 43.54
HT 1-2 1.7% 2.3% 43.58
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 43.67
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra at HT / FC Andorra at FT 23.7% 21.8% 4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.6% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / FC Andorra at FT 16.0% 16.7% 5.97
Burgos at HT / Burgos at FT 15.6% 16.7% 5.98
Draw at HT / Burgos at FT 13.3% 12.7% 7.89
FC Andorra at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% 28.73
Burgos at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% 28.75
FC Andorra at HT / Burgos at FT 1.7% 3.5% 28.85
Burgos at HT / FC Andorra at FT 1.8% 3.5% 28.85
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra to score last 49.3% 46.8% 2.14
Burgos to score last 40.6% 40.0% 2.50
No goal scored 10.1% 8.8% 11.34
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 89.9% 91.1% 1.10
FC Andorra to lead by 1 at any time 55.2% 55.0% 1.82
Burgos to lead by 1 at any time 45.5% 43.9% 2.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 38.5% 34.9% 2.87
FC Andorra to lead by 2 at any time 23.0% 19.6% 5.10
Burgos to lead by 2 at any time 15.6% 14.8% 6.74
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.7% 10.4% 9.57
FC Andorra to lead by 3 at any time 7.5% 6.6% 15.10
Burgos to lead by 3 at any time 4.2% 1.7% 60.26
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra most corners 69.0% 64.7% 1.55
Burgos most corners 20.8% 25.8% 3.88
Corners level 10.2% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.1% 87.4% 85.8% 1.02× 1.15
1-4 goals 82.0% 83.4% 78.0% 1.07× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.6% 72.4% 62.9% 1.15× 1.38
2-6 goals 64.8% 63.4% 67.9% 0.93× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.9% 63.4% 64.3% 0.99× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.8% 59.1% 56.5% 1.05× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.6% 53.1% 41.9% 1.27× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.4% 48.6% 41.4% 1.17× 2.06
3-6 goals 38.5% 39.2% 47.6% 0.82× 2.55
3-5 goals 36.5% 39.2% 44.0% 0.89× 2.55
3-4 goals 31.4% 35.3% 36.2% 0.97× 2.83
4-6 goals 18.4% 18.7% 26.6% 0.71× 5.34
4-5 goals 16.5% 18.7% 23.0% 0.81× 5.34
5-6 goals 7.0% 8.8% 11.5% 0.77× 11.32
7+ goals 0.9% 2.6% 1.6% 1.62× 39.20
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Andorra never behind 44.4% 48.4% 2.07
Burgos never behind 34.7% 35.7% 2.80
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 48.4% 1.05× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 51.6% 0.95× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.5% 57.5% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.5% 42.5% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.4% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.6% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.2% 95.4% 94.9% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.1% 92.2% 87.1% 1.06× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 89.9% 87.6% 90.9% 0.96× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 80.8% 82.3% 72.0% 1.14× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 65.7% 66.2% 69.3% 0.96× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 60.7% 61.7% 50.9% 1.21× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 39.3% 38.3% 49.1% 0.78× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 34.3% 33.8% 30.7% 1.10× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 19.2% 17.7% 28.0% 0.63× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 10.1% 12.4% 9.1% 1.35× 8.08
Over 4.5 goals 7.9% 7.8% 12.9% 0.60× 12.87
Over 5.5 goals 2.8% 4.6% 5.1% 0.89× 21.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.1% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.1% 97.2% 94.4% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.1% 92.4% 84.8% 1.09× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 75.9% 75.8% 64.5% 1.18× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 53.4% 51.9% 61.5% 0.84× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.6% 48.1% 38.5% 1.25× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 24.1% 24.2% 35.5% 0.68× 4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 8.9% 7.6% 15.2% 0.50× 13.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.9% 2.8% 5.6% 0.50× 35.84
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.9% 2.8% 1.6% 1.70× 35.90
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.0% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 75.8% 78.8% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.0% 63.5% 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 39.0% 36.5% 2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half 24.2% 21.2% 4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.0% 7.2% 13.80
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 85.3% 85.3% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.3% 77.7% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 62.1% 61.6% 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 37.9% 38.4% 2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.7% 22.3% 4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 14.7% 14.7% 6.79
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to score in both halves 84.7% 84.5% 1.18
FC Andorra not to score in both halves 79.1% 78.3% 1.28
FC Andorra to score in both halves 20.9% 21.7% 4.61
Burgos to score in both halves 15.3% 15.5% 6.44
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 45.1% 50.6% 54.0% 0.94× 1.98
Only FC Andorra scores 25.9% 26.0% 23.6% 1.10× 3.84
Only Burgos scores 18.8% 16.0% 13.4% 1.19× 6.23
Neither team scores 10.1% 11.0% 9.1% 1.20× 9.11
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.3% 24.9% 20.4% 1.22× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 24.2% 22.6% 21.6% 1.04× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.1% 22.6% 21.1% 1.07× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 11.3% 12.1% 15.2% 0.79× 8.28
Exactly 0 goals 10.1% 12.1% 9.1% 1.32× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 5.1% 7.6% 7.9% 0.97× 13.09
6 or more goals 2.8% 4.5% 5.1% 0.87× 22.43
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 37.9% 40.1% 2.49
1 goal in 2nd half 35.5% 39.8% 2.51
No goals in 2nd half 26.7% 29.8% 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to win both halves 94.1% 94.0% 1.06
FC Andorra not to win both halves 90.0% 88.0% 1.14
FC Andorra to win both halves 10.0% 12.0% 8.34
Burgos to win both halves 5.9% 6.0% 16.70
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to win neither half 56.8% 59.5% 1.68
FC Andorra to win either half 53.5% 55.0% 1.82
FC Andorra to win neither half 46.5% 45.0% 2.22
Burgos to win either half 43.2% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to win to nil 81.2% 83.1% 86.6% 0.96× 1.20
FC Andorra not to win to nil 74.1% 75.4% 76.4% 0.99× 1.33
FC Andorra to win to nil 25.9% 24.6% 23.6% 1.04× 4.06
Burgos to win to nil 18.8% 16.9% 13.4% 1.26× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.8% 27.9% 26.6% 1.05× 3.59
FC Andorra by 1 23.3% 24.2% 26.1% 0.93× 4.14
Burgos by 1 19.3% 16.9% 18.0% 0.94× 5.91
FC Andorra by 2 12.0% 11.8% 12.0% 0.98× 8.49
Burgos by 2 8.1% 7.2% 7.0% 1.03× 13.80
FC Andorra by 3+ 6.2% 7.2% 7.7% 0.94× 13.81
Burgos by 3+ 3.3% 2.7% 3.3% 0.84× 36.65
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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