FC Arouca v C.D. Nacional — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 November 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627
Primeira Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 11.6%
- 1-1 10.7%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 2-0 9.2%
- 0-1 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | Under 2.5 | 48.2% |
| BTTS yes | 52.4% | BTTS no | 47.6% |
| FC Arouca 1+ | 81.6% | FC Arouca 2+ | 50.5% |
| C.D. Nacional 1+ | 65.1% | C.D. Nacional 2+ | 28.4% |
Expected goals 1.69 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- FC Arouca carry the stronger rating, 1535 Elo against 1398.
- Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
FC Arouca have an estimated 53.7% win probability, against 23.1% for C.D. Nacional and 23.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.69 for FC Arouca and 1.05 for C.D. Nacional.
Why FC Arouca
FC Arouca carry the stronger rating, 1535 Elo against 1398. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why C.D. Nacional can win
Nothing in the data singles out C.D. Nacional.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for FC Arouca, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for C.D. Nacional, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
FC Arouca: 49% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. C.D. Nacional: 49% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
FC Arouca are the model's most likely outcome at 53.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.6%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.71–1.04 | 1-0 12% | 52% | 52% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.