FC Arouca v Rio Ave FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

FC Arouca

20:00 UTC

Rio Ave FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 849h before kick-off

FC Arouca win

53.6%

model 54.0%

Draw

23.2%

model 23.0%

Rio Ave FC win

23.2%

model 23.1%

542323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 11.1%
1-1 10.9%
2-1 9.8%
2-0 9.3%
0-1 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.6%	Under 2.5	47.4%
BTTS yes	53.1%	BTTS no	46.9%
FC Arouca 1+	82.4%	FC Arouca 2+	51.8%
Rio Ave FC 1+	64.8%	Rio Ave FC 2+	28.1%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

FC Arouca (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 42%

52.2% fair odds 1.92

moderate signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

FC Arouca not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

FC Arouca carry the stronger rating, 1533 Elo against 1417.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Arouca have an estimated 53.6% win probability, against 23.2% for Rio Ave FC and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.74 for FC Arouca and 1.04 for Rio Ave FC.

Why FC Arouca

FC Arouca carry the stronger rating, 1533 Elo against 1417. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Rio Ave FC can win

Nothing in the data singles out Rio Ave FC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Arouca, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rio Ave FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Arouca: 49% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rio Ave FC: 46% possession, 6.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Arouca are the model's most likely outcome at 53.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.1%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	542323	1.74–1.05	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	552323	1.79–1.06	1-0 11%	54%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to win	54.8%	51.5%	42.1%	1.22×	1.94
Rio Ave FC to win	22.7%	24.5%	31.4%	0.78×	4.09
Draw	22.5%	24.5%	26.7%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca & not both score	29.2%	25.2%	26.0%	0.97×	3.97
FC Arouca & both teams score	25.5%	25.1%	16.2%	1.55×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	17.1%	18.0%	20.3%	0.88×	5.57
Rio Ave FC & both teams score	11.4%	13.3%	11.7%	1.13×	7.54
Rio Ave FC & not both score	11.3%	13.3%	19.9%	0.67×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.5%	8.3%	6.5%	1.29×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca & over 1.5	44.0%	40.3%	31.4%	1.28×	2.48
FC Arouca & under 3.5	35.4%	34.9%	29.1%	1.20×	2.87
FC Arouca & over 2.5	34.7%	30.8%	24.7%	1.25×	3.25
FC Arouca & under 2.5	20.0%	21.6%	17.6%	1.23×	4.63
FC Arouca & over 3.5	19.4%	18.0%	13.1%	1.37×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.1%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Rio Ave FC & under 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	25.4%	0.71×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.1%	18.0%	17.3%	1.04×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.1%	18.0%	17.3%	1.04×	5.56
Rio Ave FC & over 1.5	16.2%	18.0%	22.5%	0.80×	5.56
Rio Ave FC & over 2.5	12.9%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
FC Arouca & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	10.8%	1.19×	7.79
Rio Ave FC & under 2.5	9.8%	7.9%	14.2%	0.56×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	9.6%	0.83×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	9.6%	0.83×	12.63
Rio Ave FC & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Rio Ave FC & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.5%	1.22×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (1UP)	68.5%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Rio Ave FC (1UP)	40.6%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (2UP)	54.8%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Rio Ave FC (2UP)	22.7%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to win 2nd half	44.0%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	33.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Rio Ave FC to win 2nd half	22.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.7%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
Rio Ave FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.0%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Rio Ave FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.0%	47.3%	—	—	2.12
Rio Ave FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.3%	13.2%	—	—	7.56

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.9%	74.4%	—	—	1.35
FC Arouca over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.9%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
FC Arouca under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.1%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
FC Arouca over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (+2.5)	86.1%	88.5%	89.7%	0.99×	1.13
FC Arouca (+0.5)	77.3%	78.5%	68.6%	1.14×	1.27
Rio Ave FC (+1.5)	69.4%	68.7%	77.8%	0.88×	1.46
FC Arouca (-0.5)	54.8%	52.4%	42.1%	1.25×	1.91
Rio Ave FC (+0.5)	45.2%	47.6%	57.9%	0.82×	2.10
FC Arouca (-1.5)	30.6%	31.3%	22.2%	1.41×	3.19
Rio Ave FC (-0.5)	22.7%	21.5%	31.4%	0.68×	4.65
FC Arouca (-2.5)	13.9%	11.5%	10.3%	1.12×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to concede	83.2%	81.6%	73.8%	1.10×	1.23
Rio Ave FC clean sheet	16.8%	18.5%	26.2%	0.70×	5.42

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to concede in 1st half	53.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Rio Ave FC clean sheet in 1st half	46.4%	49.4%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to concede in 2nd half	63.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Rio Ave FC clean sheet in 2nd half	36.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 6.5 corners	78.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Rio Ave FC over 2.5 corners	78.0%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Rio Ave FC under 5.5 corners	67.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Rio Ave FC over 3.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Rio Ave FC under 4.5 corners	53.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Rio Ave FC over 4.5 corners	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Rio Ave FC under 3.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Rio Ave FC over 5.5 corners	32.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Rio Ave FC under 2.5 corners	22.0%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Rio Ave FC over 6.5 corners	21.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 3.5 goals	97.7%	97.5%	96.0%	1.02×	1.03
Rio Ave FC under 2.5 goals	90.9%	92.3%	88.8%	1.04×	1.08
Rio Ave FC under 1.5 goals	71.4%	71.8%	65.3%	1.10×	1.39
Rio Ave FC over 0.5 goals	65.3%	68.0%	67.6%	1.01×	1.47
Rio Ave FC under 0.5 goals	34.7%	32.0%	32.4%	0.99×	3.12
Rio Ave FC over 1.5 goals	28.6%	28.2%	34.7%	0.81×	3.55
Rio Ave FC over 2.5 goals	9.1%	7.7%	11.2%	0.68×	13.04
Rio Ave FC over 3.5 goals	2.3%	2.5%	4.0%	0.62×	39.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 1.5 in 1st half	93.2%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Rio Ave FC under 0.5 in 1st half	65.5%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Rio Ave FC over 0.5 in 1st half	34.5%	30.2%	—	—	3.31
Rio Ave FC over 1.5 in 1st half	6.8%	6.2%	—	—	16.20

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC scores equally in both	44.7%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Rio Ave FC scores more in 2nd half	34.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Rio Ave FC scores more in 1st half	20.7%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (away no bet)	70.9%	68.3%	61.2%	1.12×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	29.1%	31.7%	38.8%	0.82×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC even goals	56.0%	56.9%	58.7%	0.97×	1.76
Rio Ave FC odd goals	44.0%	43.1%	41.3%	1.04×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.6%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.83

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.0%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.0%	31.7%	—	—	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.1%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
FC Arouca to score 2+ in a row	45.2%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Rio Ave FC to score 2+ in a row	20.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
FC Arouca to score 3+ in a row	18.7%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Rio Ave FC to score 3+ in a row	4.7%	2.6%	—	—	38.01

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca corners (+3.5)	86.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
FC Arouca corners (+2.5)	79.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Rio Ave FC corners (+3.5)	78.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
FC Arouca corners (+1.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Rio Ave FC corners (+2.5)	70.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Rio Ave FC corners (+1.5)	60.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
FC Arouca corners (-1.5)	39.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Arouca corners (-2.5)	29.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Rio Ave FC corners (-1.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
FC Arouca corners (-3.5)	21.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Rio Ave FC corners (-2.5)	20.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Rio Ave FC corners (-3.5)	13.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	70.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	69.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	60.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	60.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	50.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 8.5 corners	39.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	39.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	30.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	29.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	10.7%	11.5%	10.8%	1.06×	8.72
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	10.9%	1.05×	8.72
2-0	9.3%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.51
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
0-1	6.5%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.51
0-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.51
1-2	5.8%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.51
3-0	5.5%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.51
3-1	5.8%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.51
0-2	3.3%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.45×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.31
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.32
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.32
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	11.13×	58.32
4-0	2.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.31
4-1	2.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.30
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
Any other score	4.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (2nd half DNB)	66.1%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Rio Ave FC (2nd half DNB)	33.9%	33.4%	—	—	2.99

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca leading at HT (DNB)	68.5%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Rio Ave FC leading at HT (DNB)	31.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca or Rio Ave FC (12)	77.5%	75.5%	73.3%	1.03×	1.32
FC Arouca or draw (1X)	77.3%	75.5%	68.6%	1.10×	1.32
Rio Ave FC or draw (X2)	45.2%	48.5%	57.9%	0.84×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca or draw at HT	81.4%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Rio Ave FC or draw at HT	59.6%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
FC Arouca or Rio Ave FC at HT	59.0%	57.7%	—	—	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca or draw (1UP)	77.3%	83.7%	—	—	1.19
Rio Ave FC or draw (1UP)	45.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca or draw in 2nd half	77.5%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
FC Arouca or Rio Ave FC in 2nd half	66.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Rio Ave FC or draw in 2nd half	56.0%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.1%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.9%	38.7%	—	—	2.58

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (DNB)	70.7%	71.3%	57.2%	1.25×	1.40
Rio Ave FC (DNB)	29.3%	28.7%	42.8%	0.67×	3.49

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to score first	59.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Rio Ave FC to score first	35.2%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	5.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.56

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.0%	51.3%	47.9%	1.07×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.0%	48.7%	52.1%	0.94×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.3%	41.6%	37.1%	1.12×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	35.3%	38.4%	37.9%	1.01×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	10.9%	1.13×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.7%	12.4%	14.3%	0.86×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.8%	82.6%	86.0%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.2%	17.4%	14.0%	1.24×	5.76

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.1%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.9%	26.4%	—	—	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.2%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.3%	21.0%	—	—	4.76
Both score 1st half only	12.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.6%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.4%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
A half without a goal	43.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.5%	47.2%	45.6%	1.03×	2.12
4-6 goals	29.2%	26.6%	27.7%	0.96×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.7%	22.9%	26.0%	0.88×	4.36
7+ goals	2.6%	1.8%	0.9%	1.99×	54.27

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	33.1%	1.08×	2.78
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 0	34.7%	33.8%	32.4%	1.05×	2.96
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 2	19.4%	19.6%	23.6%	0.83×	5.11
Rio Ave FC to score 3+	9.1%	8.6%	11.2%	0.76×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to score exactly 1	29.9%	26.6%	31.4%	0.84×	3.77
FC Arouca to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	23.6%	1.13×	3.77
FC Arouca to score 3+	26.6%	26.5%	19.1%	1.39×	3.77
FC Arouca to score exactly 0	16.8%	18.8%	26.2%	0.72×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.0%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
FC Arouca leading at HT	40.4%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Rio Ave FC leading at HT	18.6%	16.1%	—	—	6.21

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca -1: 2	45.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
FC Arouca -1: 1	30.6%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
FC Arouca -1: X	24.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:1)	45.2%	46.1%	57.9%	0.80×	2.17
FC Arouca (0:1)	30.6%	30.0%	22.2%	1.35×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	24.2%	24.2%	20.0%	1.21×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:2)	69.4%	72.3%	77.8%	0.93×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	16.7%	15.3%	12.0%	1.27×	6.55
FC Arouca (0:2)	13.9%	11.0%	10.3%	1.07×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:3)	86.1%	90.6%	89.7%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.7%	5.8%	6.0%	0.97×	17.21
FC Arouca (0:3)	5.2%	5.8%	4.5%	1.30×	17.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:4)	94.8%	94.6%	95.5%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	81.77
FC Arouca (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	81.99

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (1:0)	77.3%	78.6%	68.6%	1.15×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.5%	12.7%	17.7%	0.72×	7.86
Rio Ave FC (1:0)	8.2%	6.9%	13.9%	0.50×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (2:0)	91.8%	94.0%	86.1%	1.09×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.9%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.69
Rio Ave FC (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	6.9%	0.33×	43.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	23.8%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to concede	65.3%	66.7%	67.6%	0.99×	1.50
FC Arouca clean sheet	34.7%	33.3%	32.4%	1.03×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca clean sheet in 1st half	65.5%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
FC Arouca to concede in 1st half	34.5%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca clean sheet in 2nd half	53.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
FC Arouca to concede in 2nd half	47.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca over 2.5 corners	83.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
FC Arouca under 6.5 corners	71.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
FC Arouca over 3.5 corners	69.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
FC Arouca under 5.5 corners	59.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
FC Arouca over 4.5 corners	54.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
FC Arouca under 4.5 corners	45.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
FC Arouca over 5.5 corners	40.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
FC Arouca under 3.5 corners	30.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
FC Arouca over 6.5 corners	28.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
FC Arouca under 2.5 corners	16.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 3.5 goals	89.4%	87.3%	93.5%	0.93×	1.15
FC Arouca over 0.5 goals	83.2%	82.2%	73.8%	1.11×	1.22
FC Arouca under 2.5 goals	73.4%	74.2%	80.9%	0.92×	1.35
FC Arouca over 1.5 goals	53.3%	53.2%	42.5%	1.25×	1.88
FC Arouca under 1.5 goals	46.7%	46.8%	57.5%	0.81×	2.14
FC Arouca over 2.5 goals	26.6%	25.8%	19.1%	1.35×	3.88
FC Arouca under 0.5 goals	16.8%	17.8%	26.2%	0.68×	5.63
FC Arouca over 3.5 goals	10.6%	12.7%	6.5%	1.97×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 1.5 in 1st half	82.0%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
FC Arouca over 0.5 in 1st half	53.6%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
FC Arouca under 0.5 in 1st half	46.4%	49.6%	—	—	2.02
FC Arouca over 1.5 in 1st half	18.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.16

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca scores more in 2nd half	40.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
FC Arouca scores equally in both	32.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
FC Arouca scores more in 1st half	26.8%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (home no bet)	50.2%	51.4%	54.1%	0.95×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.8%	48.6%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca even goals	51.4%	50.7%	54.7%	0.93×	1.97
FC Arouca odd goals	48.6%	49.3%	45.3%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.3%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
HT 1-0	23.4%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	12.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	9.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.42
HT 2-0	9.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
Any other HT score	5.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.96
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca at HT / FC Arouca at FT	33.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Draw at HT / FC Arouca at FT	18.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Rio Ave FC at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	11.5%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	9.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.38
FC Arouca at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Rio Ave FC at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Rio Ave FC at HT / FC Arouca at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
FC Arouca at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to score last	59.3%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Rio Ave FC to score last	35.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	5.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.56

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
FC Arouca to lead by 1 at any time	68.5%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.1%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Rio Ave FC to lead by 1 at any time	40.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
FC Arouca to lead by 2 at any time	37.3%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
FC Arouca to lead by 3 at any time	16.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Rio Ave FC to lead by 2 at any time	13.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
Rio Ave FC to lead by 3 at any time	3.4%	1.6%	—	—	61.63

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca most corners	50.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Rio Ave FC most corners	38.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.8%	0.97×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.6%	78.7%	83.1%	0.95×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.7%	72.4%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.4%	72.3%	70.3%	1.03×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.8%	63.3%	65.2%	0.97×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.3%	63.5%	1.00×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.5%	53.2%	50.5%	1.05×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.2%	48.5%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.5%	48.5%	45.6%	1.06×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.4%	43.6%	42.4%	1.03×	2.29
3-4 goals	38.2%	39.2%	40.8%	0.96×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.2%	30.2%	27.7%	1.09×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.9%	24.5%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09
5-6 goals	13.3%	14.8%	9.9%	1.50×	6.75
7+ goals	2.6%	2.6%	0.9%	2.76×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca never behind	53.9%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Rio Ave FC never behind	26.1%	29.9%	—	—	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.9%	50.2%	1.01×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.1%	49.8%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.5%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.5%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.1%	82.3%	89.4%	0.92×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.3%	77.3%	74.0%	1.05×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.2%	66.3%	71.5%	0.93×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	54.1%	52.5%	51.3%	1.02×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	45.9%	47.5%	48.7%	0.97×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.8%	33.7%	28.5%	1.18×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.7%	22.7%	26.0%	0.87×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	15.9%	17.7%	10.6%	1.66×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	3.9%	2.00×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	6.5%	1.19×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.3%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.4%	92.4%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.1%	81.1%	87.1%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.4%	72.4%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.1%	55.8%	63.1%	0.88×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.9%	44.2%	36.9%	1.20×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.6%	27.6%	33.7%	0.82×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.9%	18.9%	12.9%	1.46×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.6%	7.6%	4.1%	1.84×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.7%	2.8%	1.0%	2.95×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.1%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.6%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.4%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.3%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.12

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.0%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.0%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.0%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.0%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to score in both halves	83.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
FC Arouca not to score in both halves	65.8%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
FC Arouca to score in both halves	34.2%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Rio Ave FC to score in both halves	16.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.0%	53.9%	47.9%	1.12×	1.86
Only FC Arouca scores	29.2%	26.0%	26.0%	1.00×	3.84
Only Rio Ave FC scores	11.3%	11.0%	19.9%	0.55×	9.07
Neither team scores	5.5%	7.1%	6.5%	1.10×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.2%	22.6%	22.8%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.3%	17.5%	19.7%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.9%	17.5%	18.0%	0.97×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.0%	7.6%	6.9%	1.10×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.9%	7.6%	3.9%	1.97×	13.15
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	6.5%	1.18×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.3%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	21.5%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	11.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.21

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.1%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.9%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	19.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to win both halves	95.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
FC Arouca not to win both halves	82.3%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
FC Arouca to win both halves	17.7%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Rio Ave FC to win both halves	4.2%	2.8%	—	—	35.30

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to win either half	66.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Rio Ave FC to win neither half	63.0%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Rio Ave FC to win either half	37.0%	35.0%	—	—	2.85
FC Arouca to win neither half	33.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to win to nil	88.7%	88.1%	80.1%	1.10×	1.14
FC Arouca not to win to nil	70.8%	75.3%	74.0%	1.02×	1.33
FC Arouca to win to nil	29.2%	24.7%	26.0%	0.95×	4.05
Rio Ave FC to win to nil	11.3%	11.9%	19.9%	0.60×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca by 1	24.2%	24.1%	20.0%	1.20×	4.15
Draw	22.5%	24.1%	26.7%	0.90×	4.15
FC Arouca by 2	16.7%	17.0%	12.0%	1.42×	5.87
Rio Ave FC by 1	14.5%	11.8%	17.7%	0.66×	8.51
FC Arouca by 3+	13.9%	11.8%	10.3%	1.14×	8.51
Rio Ave FC by 2	5.9%	7.2%	7.1%	1.01×	13.91
Rio Ave FC by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	6.9%	0.39×	36.86