FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 8
On target
9 – 3
Shots in box
18 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.77
Goals − xG
-2.50 – +0.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
21.6%
Draw
20.2%
Bayer Leverkusen win
58.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.27–2.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–1.91 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 3.50 xGBayer Leverkusen 1.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Linton Maina |
| 10' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 15' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Linton Maina |
| 28' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 37' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 47' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Linton Maina |
| 51' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nathan Tella |
| 54' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 55' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 62' |
FC Cologne |
Alessio Castro-Montes | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 65' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Martel |
| 65' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Robert Andrich | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 70' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 75' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 76' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Said El Mala |
| 80' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
FC Cologne |
Felipe Chávez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 86' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
FC Cologne |
Felipe Chávez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jahmai Simpson-Pusey |
| 96' |
FC Cologne |
Felipe Chávez | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 96' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Alessio Castro-Montes |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Janis Blaswich GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nathan Tella AMC | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| Aleix García MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Montrell Culbreath DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Maza AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malik Tillman Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Seghir Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezequiél Fernández Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loic Bade Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said El Mala FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1.44 | 0.53 | 2.05 |
| Jakub Kaminski AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.04 | 1.27 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Eric Martel DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.75 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Linton Maina AMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 1.26 |
| Marius Bülter AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Jan Thielmann Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Felipe Chávez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Youssoupha Niang Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |